根据国际能源署的一份新报告，乌克兰战争正在重塑全球能源格局，并有望加快摆脱化石燃料的过渡，因为各国都在争夺俄罗斯能源的替代品国际能源机构。
俄罗斯一直是世界上最大的石油和天然气等化石燃料出口国之一，但自从欧洲入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯已经切断了对欧洲的天然气供应，对俄罗斯出口的制裁威胁到了全球的能源供应，并推高了价格。
国际能源署的报告发现，政府对这场能源危机的反应，如美国的通货膨胀削减法案以及欧盟、日本和韩国的清洁能源一揽子计划，将降低全球对化石燃料的需求，并加快风能和太阳能等排放较少的能源的部署。中国和印度也制定了推广更多可再生能源的新目标。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在新闻发布会上说:“世界各国政府对这场能源危机的反应表明，我们正看到能源史上的一个转折点，这场危机实际上加速了清洁能源的过渡。”
该报告发现，这些政策将促使化石燃料需求自工业革命以来首次达到峰值，天然气需求预计将在本世纪达到峰值，电动汽车的使用增加将促使石油需求在21世纪30年代达到峰值。
“在这种情况下，煤炭使用量将在未来几年内下降，天然气需求将在2020年达到稳定水平，电动汽车销量的上升意味着石油需求将在21世纪30年代中期稳定下来，到本世纪中叶略有下降，”该报告称。“这意味着，从本世纪20年代中期到2050年，对化石燃料的总需求将稳步下降，年均降幅大致相当于一个大型油田一生的产量。”
联合国气候报告发现燃烧化石燃料产生的全球温室气体排放需要在本世纪达到峰值，以将升温限制在1.5摄氏度，这是巴黎协定为防止气候变化带来更危险的影响而设定的目标。
该报告预计，短期内增加石油和煤炭燃烧需求以抵消俄罗斯天然气的不足可能是暂时的，从长期来看，将被排放更低的能源所取代。
“由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，能源市场和政策发生了变化，不仅是暂时的，而且是未来几十年的，”国际能源署执行主任法蒂赫·比罗尔在新闻稿中说。“即使在今天的政策环境下，能源世界也正在我们眼前发生巨大变化。世界各国政府的回应承诺，这将成为一个历史性的决定性转折点，朝着更清洁、更实惠、更安全的能源体系迈进。”
Ukraine war expected to accelerate clean energy transition, new report finds
The war in Ukraine is reshaping the global energy landscape and is expected to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels as countries scramble for alternatives to Russian energy, according to a new report from theInternational Energy Agency.
Russia has been one of the world's largest exporters of fossil fuels like oil and natural gas, but Russia has cut off supplies of natural gas to Europe since they invaded Ukraine and sanctions on Russian exports have threatened energy supplies and increased prices all over the world.
The IEA report found that government's responses to this energy crisis like the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. as well as clean energy packages in the European Union, Japan and Korea will bring down global demand from fossil fuels and accelerate the deployment of less emitting forms of energy like wind and solar. China and India have also set new goals to roll out more renewable energy.
The sun sets behind the coal-fired power plant 'Scholven' of the Uniper energy company in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, on Oct. 22, 2022.
Michael Sohn/AP
"The government responses around the world given to this energy crisis promise to be that we are seeing a turning point in the history of energy and this crisis, indeed, accelerates clean energy transitions," IEA Director Fatih Birol said at a press conference.
The report found that these policies will contribute to a peak in fossil fuel demand for the first time since the industrial revolution, with demand for natural gas expected to peak this century and increasing use of electric vehicles contributing to a peak in demand for oil in the 2030s.
"In this scenario, coal use falls back within the next few years, natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century," the report said. "This means that total demand for fossil fuels declines steadily from the mid-2020s to 2050 by an annual average roughly equivalent to the lifetime output of a large oil field."
United Nations climate reportshave found that global greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels need to peak this century to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the target set by the Paris Agreement to prevent more dangerous impacts of climate change.
The report expects that the short-term increases in demand for oil and coal burning to offset the lack of Russian gas are likely temporary and will be replaced by lower emissions sources of energy in the long-term.
"Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in the press release. "Even with today's policy settings, the energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system."
