中期选举结果可能会归结为一加仑汽油的价格。

根据一项调查，大约一半的美国人表示，经济或通胀是他们投票给国会的最重要问题，这使得基本的金融问题成为中期选举前最主要的问题ABC新闻/益普索民意调查周日发布。

与此同时，专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，研究已经建立了天然气价格和总统支持率之间的关系，这种关系可以追溯到几十年前，尽管总统对燃料成本的控制有限。他们说，总统支持率反过来标志着控制白宫的政党中期成败的关键指标。

在达到夏季峰值后，天然气价格连续下跌了约100天，提振了拜登的支持率。但10月初的价格飙升拖累了他的支持率。

在过去的几周里，价格回到了稳步下降的状态——尽管仍然很高——留下了一个悬而未决的问题，即消费者是否会认识到这一趋势并奖励民主党人，还是因为太少、太晚而惩罚他们。

“摇摆选民将在他们真正走进投票站时做出决定，”左倾研究公司Data for Progress的联合创始人科林·麦考利夫(Colin McAuliffe)告诉美国广播公司新闻。

高耸的路边标志上随处可见的油价会影响那些甚至不购买汽油的人的财务态度。专家说，对于那些这样做的人来说，加满油可以让他们休息几分钟，除了看着价格慢慢上涨之外，无事可做。

西北大学政治学教授劳雷尔·哈布里奇-永(Laurel Harbridge-Yong)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)说:“人们知道他们的食品账单上涨了，但他们不一定能说出肉类、牛奶和谷物的价格变化了多少。”“汽油是一种非常显眼的商品，你可以一次买一件，不需要和其他商品捆绑销售。”

2016年，研究在学术期刊《政治心理学》(Political Psychology)上，研究了20世纪70年代中期至21世纪头十年中期油价与总统支持率之间的关系，发现油价上涨导致总统支持率下降。研究显示，确切地说，油价每上涨10美分，总统支持率就会下降0.5个百分点以上。

此外，研究人员研究了媒体对天然气价格的报道，发现无论价格得到多少关注，总统批准都会受到影响。进行这项研究的研究人员之一Harbridge-Yong说，在这一点上，天然气价格与失业率或整体通胀率等其他经济指标形成对比，这些指标通常需要媒体报道，让选民了解趋势。

进步数据的麦考利夫建立了更多最新发现这表明，在拜登执政期间，油价和总统批准之间存在相关性，这种相关性可以追溯到8月份。“这种相关性非常强，”他说。

对于斯坦福大学政治学教授乔恩·克罗斯尼克(Jon Krosnick)来说，在拜登领导下的通货膨胀中，天然气价格的持续突出并不令人惊讶，他是2016年研究的合著者。他表示:“当我们看到油价上涨幅度与实际一样大时，显然会有一些影响。”。

专家表示，尽管油价和总统支持率之间存在关系，但总统对燃料成本几乎没有控制权，这让他们在很大程度上无力应对人们对他们在这一领域表现的看法。

根据世界石油组织的数据，美国将在2022年平均每天生产1180万桶石油，比2019年创下的纪录少50万桶美国能源情报署。但油价是在全球市场上制定的，俄罗斯-乌克兰战争导致的供应短缺和欧佩克+减产无法被美国石油产量的短期增长所抵消。

GasBuddy的石油和天然气分析师帕特里克·德哈恩(Patrick Schmidt)说，通常情况下，天然气价格会在中期选举前下跌，因为随着美国人减少夏季旅行，秋季会带来需求的下降。他补充称，最近几周，油价下跌还源于一系列炼油厂受损后的修复，这些炼油厂恢复了生产，提高了总产量。

“每年这个时候价格下降是正常的，”德·汉告诉美国广播公司新闻。“这不是政治。”

斯坦福大学的克罗斯尼克说，价格减免对选民来说可能来得太晚了，没有注意到。

“从现在到选举日没有多少时间了，”他说。"显然，汽油价格的任何变化都必须发生，并被公众察觉."

拜登周一强调了这个问题，威胁石油和天然气公司如果它们不能通过增加产出来缓解供应短缺，就要征收更高的税。许多主要产油国都报告了近几个季度创纪录的利润。

克罗斯尼克说，在选举日，天然气价格将在结果中发挥明确无误的作用。

“人们提出了各种各样的问题。你可以把它想象成用许多起作用的配料做一道复杂的汤，”他说。"汽油价格显然是问题的一部分."

Gas prices could decide the midterms. Here's why.

Midterm election results may come down to theprice of a gallon of gas.

Roughly half of Americans say either the economy or inflation is the most important issue in their vote for Congress, making bread-and-butter financial issues by far the most dominant in the lead-up to the midterm elections, according to anABC News/Ipsos pollreleased on Sunday.

Meanwhile, research has established a relationship between gas prices and presidential approval ratings that reaches back decades, despite the limited control that presidents exert over fuel costs, experts told ABC News. Presidential approval ratings, in turn, mark a key indicator of midterm success or failure for the party in control of the White House, they said.

After reaching a summer peak, gas prices declined for about 100 consecutive days, buoying Biden's approval rating. But a price spike in early October weighed on his approval.

Over the last few weeks, prices have returned to a steady decline – though they remain elevated – leaving an open question about whether consumers will recognize the trend and reward the Democrats or punish them for too little, too late.

"Swing voters will be deciding as they're literally walking into the voting booth," Colin McAuliffe, co-founder of left-leaning research firm Data for Progress, told ABC News.

The ubiquity of gas prices emblazoned on towering roadside signs can affect the financial attitude of those who do not even purchase gas. For those who do, filling up the tank offers a few minutes of repose with little to do but watch the price slowly add up, the experts said.

"People know their grocery bill has gone up but they can't say necessarily how much the price of meat versus milk versus cereal has changed," Laurel Harbridge-Yong, a professor of political science at Northwestern University who has studied the political implications of gas prices, told ABC News. "Gas is a very visible item and an item you buy one at a time, without bundling it with others."

In 2016,a studyin the academic journal Political Psychology examined the relationship between gas prices and presidential approval rating between the mid-1970s and mid-2000s, finding that elevated gas prices drove a president's approval downward. To be exact, each 10-cent increase in the gas price was associated with more than half a percentage point decline in presidential approval, the research showed.

Further, the researchers studied press coverage of the gas prices, finding that the effect on presidential approval occurred regardless of how much attention the prices got. On that score, gas prices contrast with other economic indicators, like the unemployment rate or overall inflation, which typically require media coverage that gives voters a sense of the trend, said Harbridge-Yong, one of the researchers who conducted the study.

McAuliffe, of Data for Progress, has establishedmore recent findings, demonstrating a correlation between gas prices and presidential approval during Biden's time in office stretching to as recently as August. "The correlation has held up pretty strongly," he said.

The continued salience of gas prices amid inflation under Biden comes as no surprise to ​​Jon Krosnick, a professor of political science at Stanford University who co-authored the 2016 study. "When we see gas prices go up as much as they have gone up, clearly there are implications," he said.

Despite the relationship between gas prices and presidential approval rating, presidents exert little control over fuel costs, leaving them largely powerless to address perceptions of their performance in this area, experts said.

The U.S. is set to produce an average of 11.8 million barrels oil per day in 2022, which stands 500,000 barrels short of a record set in 2019, according to theU.S. Energy Information Administration. But oil prices are set on a global market, where supply shortages caused by the Russia-Ukraine War andOPEC+ output cutscannot be offset by a comparable short-term increase in U.S. oil output.

Typically, gas prices drop ahead of midterm elections, since the Fall brings a decline in demand as Americans scale back from summer travel, said Patrick De Haan, an oil and gas analyst for GasBuddy. In recent weeks, the drop has also stemmed from the repair of damage at a string of oil refineries, which brought them back online and increased overall output, he added.

"It's normal for prices to go down this time of year," De haan told ABC News. "It's not political."

The price relief may have arrived too late for voters to notice, said Krosnick, of Stanford University.

"There's not a lot of time between now and election day," he said. "Obviously any change in gasoline prices has to take place and be detected by the public."

Biden highlighted the issue on Monday,threatening oil and gas companieswith higher taxes if they do not relieve a supply shortage with increased output. Many of the major oil producers have reported recorded profits in recent quarters.

On election day, gas prices will play an unmistakable role in the outcome, Krosnick said.

"People bring to the table a mix of issues. You can think of it as making a complicated soup with lots of ingredients that play a part," he said. "Gas prices clearly are a part of the soup."