尽管不是候选人，唐纳德·特朗普在这次期中考试中显得尤为突出选举但他所带来的影响直到选举日之前或之后都不会明朗。
这位前总统在共和党中的支持率仍然很高——即使他面临着多重调查以及1月6日听证会的影响——根据美国广播公司新闻和益普索的数据，64%的注册共和党选民表示，特朗普应该对该党的未来方向有很大或很大的影响投票。
特朗普的追随者在国会和州级竞选中出现在选票上，包括将近200个人支持和传播他的选举否定论。
“虽然唐纳德·特朗普今年不在选票上，但特朗普的政治品牌在，并且继续表现出极大的持久性和有效性，”共和党资深战略家马克·韦弗告诉美国广播公司新闻。韦弗指出，特朗普支持的候选人经常类似地反击精英，并接受他的剧本外欺凌行为。
这是最后一周的竞选活动，特朗普正在摇摆州举行闪电式的集会，以点燃共和党的基础。他将出现在佛罗里达州、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州。特朗普支持的超级政治行动委员会已经至少花了860万美元在战场州的广告上，尽管支出还没有其他共和党团体在这个周期投入的多。
特朗普发言人利兹·哈灵顿告诉美国广播公司新闻，特朗普的支持正在“对中期选举产生不可思议的影响”。
哈林顿说:“在全国范围内，共和党人受益于特朗普总统的集会、财政支持和领导力。”
但特朗普的影响最终会帮助还是伤害共和党?
特朗普在初选期间帮助塑造了共和党的中期场，并经常在集会上兜售他的支持。现在的问题是，他的影响力会帮助还是阻碍共和党夺回国会控制权的机会。
“今年我们将收回房子，”特朗普在10月底的德克萨斯州集会上说。“我们要夺回参议院。我们要夺回美国。”
在某些情况下，特朗普的选择将更多温和的共和党现任者赶出了选票，比如众议员利兹·切尼在怀俄明州输给了哈里特·哈格曼，或者卡莉·莱克在亚利桑那州的州长初选中击败了卡林·泰勒·罗布森。
在共和党领导层寻求夺回国会控制权的过程中，他的支持并不总是受到欢迎。他更具争议的选择包括佐治亚州的前足球明星赫歇尔·沃克和宾夕法尼亚州的名人穆罕默德·奥兹博士。尽管鼓励沃克竞选公职，为任何严肃的共和党挑战者扫清障碍，但特朗普在最后的竞选活动中没有涉足格鲁吉亚，而沃克在向选民阐述自己的观点时，限制了他对前总统的谈论。
参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔质疑一些共和党人的“候选人素质”，因为他降低了共和党将赢回众议院控制权的预期。虽然麦康奈尔没有提到特朗普或任何候选人的名字，但这位前总统回击了麦康奈尔，称他为“黑客政客”。
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)治理研究高级研究员比尔·高尔斯顿(Bill Galston)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，“一些摇摆州的参议员候选人应该感谢唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的提名。“在宾夕法尼亚州确实如此。在亚利桑那州是真的。在佐治亚州是真的。”
这三个州可能最终决定哪一个政党明年控制参议院，538个民调平均值显示，这三个州之间的差距不超过3个百分点。
Former President Donald Trump gestures to supporters at a rally, Oct. 22, 2022, in Robstown, Texas.
尼克·瓦格纳/美联社
选举观察人士表示担心，在一些比赛中，一个更温和的候选人可能会比特朗普更具争议的选择在大选中表现得更好。
根据FiveThirtyEight的数据，在俄亥俄州，特朗普在2020年以8个百分点的优势获胜，他的参议院候选人万斯仅领先2个百分点投票平均水平，并经常与民主党众议员蒂姆·瑞恩交换领先优势。
“每个人都可以想象一个普通的共和党人可能会比这做得更好，”保守派道德和公共政策中心的高级研究员亨利·奥尔森告诉美国广播公司新闻。“(特朗普的)一些更具争议的选择将会获胜，而一些选择可能会失败。”
一些特朗普支持的候选人是尝试旋转在初选中采取极端立场后，为即将到来的大选采取更温和的立场。
新罕布什尔州的共和党参议员候选人唐·博尔达克(Don Bolduc)在初选中坚决否认选举，但在大选中完全改变了立场，他在9月份告诉福克斯新闻频道，他得出结论，2020年的竞选“没有被偷走”
“共和党人在验尸时将主要通过观察他的参议院候选人的表现来判断特朗普的影响，”高尔斯顿继续说道。“如果共和党未能夺回或保持参议院的多数席位，我认为他们中的很多人会说这是特朗普的错。”
民意调查和历史趋势通常表明，共和党将在这个周期接管众议院，而参议院则更不稳定。根据五三八年的预报，这是一个死热的控制上室。
展望2024年
特朗普在中期选举中的行动，是他离任后的第一场测试赛，都是在2024年的背景下发生的。
这位前总统一直暗示他将再次竞选总统，上个月在德克萨斯州集会上告诉人群，他“可能不得不再次这样做”，以使国家“再次成功、安全和光荣”。
高尔斯顿说:“如果特朗普盟友共和党在摇摆州的可赢得的比赛中被击败，那将对2024年的对话产生影响。”
但如果他支持的候选人表现良好，这可能会进一步提升他在共和党中的形象。
许多其他潜在的2024年竞争者正在这个中期周期展示他们的存在。
弗吉尼亚州州长格伦·扬金在亚利桑那州为莱克和其他共和党人助选。佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)被广泛认为是特朗普最大的竞争对手之一，他出现在堪萨斯州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州的活动中。川普将于11月6日在佛罗里达州为马尔科·卢比奥参议员拉票，但值得注意的是，他不会与德桑蒂斯一起出现。
在美国广播公司9月份的新闻报道中投票在特朗普是否应该成为他们2024年的提名人的问题上，共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士的比例为47%-46%——自2020年提名以来，特朗普的支持率下降了20个百分点。
How Donald Trump is shaping the midterms for Republicans
Despite not being a candidate,Donald Trumpis looming large this midtermelectioncycle, but what difference he's making won't be clearer until Election Day or soon after.
The former president's approval rating among Republicans remains high -- even as he facesmultiple investigationsand the fallout from the Jan. 6 hearings -- with 64% of registered GOP voters saying Trump should have a good or great deal of influence over the future direction of the party, according to an ABC News and Ipsospoll.
Trump acolytes appear up and down the ballot in congressional and statewide races, includingnearly 200 individualswho support and spread his election denialism.
"Although Donald Trump is not on the ballot this year, the Trump political brand is and it continues to show great durability and effectiveness," Mark Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist, told ABC News. Trump-backed candidates, Weaver noted, often similarly push back against elites and embrace his off-script, bullying demeanor.
This final campaign week, Trump is holding a blitz of rallies in swing states to fire up the Republican base. He will appear in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And a super PAC backed by Trump hasspent at least $8.6 millionon ads in battleground states, though the spending hasn't been nearly as much as other Republican groups have invested this cycle.
Trump spokesperson Liz Harrington told ABC News that Trump's endorsements are having "an incredible impact on the midterms."
"Across the country, Republicans have benefited from President Trump's rallies, financial support, and leadership," Harrington said.
But will Trump's impact ultimately help or hurt the GOP?
Trump helped to shape the GOP midterm field during the primaries, and often touts his endorsements at rallies. Now, the question is whether his influence will help or hinder the Republican Party's chances of taking back control of Congress.
"This is the year we're going to take back the House," Trump said at Texas rally in late October. "We're going to take back the Senate. We're going to take back America."
In some cases, Trump's picks drove more moderate Republican incumbents off the ballot -- like Rep. Liz Cheney's loss to Harriet Hageman in Wyoming, or Kari Lake's defeat of Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona's gubernatorial primary.
And his endorsements haven't always been celebrated by Republican leadership in their quest to take back control of Congress. Among his more controversial picks are former football star Herschel Walker in Georgia and celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Despite encouraging Walker to run for office, clearing the field of any serious Republican challengers, Trump hasn't set foot in Georgia in this final campaign stretch, while Walker has limited his talk of the former president in as he makes his case to voters.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has questioned the "candidate quality" of some Republicans running as he's tempered expectations that the GOP will win back control of the chamber. While McConnell didn't mention Trump or any candidates by name, the former president shot back at McConnell, calling him a "hack politician."
"A number of Senate candidates in swing states owe their nominations to Donald Trump," Bill Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, told ABC News. "That's certainly true in Pennsylvania. It's true in Arizona. It's true in Georgia."
Those three states could ultimately determine which party controls the Senate next year, and FiveThirtyEight polling averages show each of those races separated by 3 points or less.
Elections observers have voiced concern that in some races, a more moderate candidate might've been faring better in the general election than Trump's more divisive pick.
In Ohio -- a state Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020 -- his Senate pick, J.D. Vance, is leading by just 2 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight'spollingaverage, and has often traded leads with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan.
"Everyone can imagine that a generic Republican might be doing stronger than that," Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, told ABC News. "A number of [Trump's] more controversial choices will win, and a number will likely lose."
Some Trump-backed candidates aretrying to pivotto more moderate stances for the upcoming general election after adopting extreme positions in the primary seasons.
New Hampshire's Don Bolduc, the Republican nominee for Senate, was a gung-ho election denier in the primary race but shifted his stance completely for the general election, telling Fox News in September he's come to the conclusion the 2020 race "was not stolen."
"Republicans in the post mortem will judge Trump's impact largely by looking at how his Senate candidates fare," Galston continued. "If Republicans fail to recapture or hold a majority in the Senate, I think a lot of them will say that is Trump's fault."
Polling, and historical trends, generally points to a Republican takeover of the House this cycle while the Senate is more in flux. According to FiveThirtyEight'sforecast, it's a dead heat for control of the upper chamber.
Looking ahead to 2024
Trump's actions in the midterms, his first test race since he left office, are all happening against a 2024 backdrop.
The former president is consistently suggesting he will run again for the presidency, telling the crowd at the Texas rally last month he'll "probably have to do it again" to make the country "successful, safe and glorious again."
"If Trump-allied Republicans are defeated in winnable races in swing states, that will have an impact on the 2024 conversation," said Galston.
But if his endorsed candidates fare well, it could boost his profile even further in the GOP.
A host of other potential 2024 contenders are making their presence known this midterm cycle.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin was in Arizona campaigning for Lake and other Republicans. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely considered to be one of Trump's biggest competitors, has appeared at events in Kansas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump will be in Florida on Nov. 6 to stump for Sen. Marco Rubio, but will notably not appear alongside DeSantis.
In a September ABC Newspoll, Republicans and GOP-leaning independents were split 47%-46% on whether Trump should be their 2024 nominee -- a 20-point drop for Trump since his 2020 nomination.
