华盛顿-唐纳德·特朗普从2022年开始。初选候选人正蜂拥至佛罗里达州向前总统示好，以获得梦寐以求的支持。他的集会吸引了数千人。一系列调查基本上没有引起注意。
一年后，特朗普面临着截然不同的现实。
他深陷刑事调查，最终可能会被起诉。他因共和党在11月份令人失望的表现而受到指责选举南虽然他现在已经宣布成为总统候选人，但自他宣布参选以来的六周时间里，危机不断。特朗普没有举行过一次竞选活动，他几乎没有离开过他在佛罗里达州的Mar-a-Lago俱乐部。
他的潜在2024年竞争对手似乎更加大胆，而不是避开挑战者。刚刚赢得连任的佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)越来越被视为特朗普最强大的竞争对手。
特朗普低调的竞选声明甚至让以前的坚定支持者怀疑他是否真的想再次竞选白宫。
“有一部电影叫《发射失败》。我认为唐纳德·特朗普迄今为止的竞选过程就是如此。他宣布了这一消息，但自那以来他没有做任何事情来支持它，”曾为特朗普2016年竞选提供建议的共和党特工迈克尔·比翁多(Michael Biundo)说，但这次他避而不谈。
“什么竞选?”问长期为共和党捐款的丹·埃伯哈特(Dan Eberhart)，他曾为特朗普2020年的连任努力捐款10万美元，但现在被吸引到德桑蒂斯。“特朗普的早期推出似乎更像是对德桑蒂斯过度表现的反应，是反对起诉的法律策略，而不是政治运动。"
特朗普竞选官员坚称，自他11月15日宣布以来，他们一直在有条不紊地构建政治运作。他们注意到，特朗普是在假日季节之前宣布的，这是政治家们通常保持低调的时候，他异乎寻常地提前宣布，给他充足的时间来加速。
特朗普发言人张致恒说:“这是一场马拉松，我们的比赛计划正在按计划实施。”
“我们还在提前投票的州组建顶级团队，扩大我们的大规模数据业务，以确保我们在各条战线上占据优势，”他说。“我们不会玩媒体试图决定我们如何竞选的游戏。”
特朗普还为他的竞选活动起步缓慢的批评进行了辩护。“集会将比以往更大更好(因为我们的国家正在走向地狱)，但这有点早，你不觉得吗?”他在自己的社交媒体网站上写道。
尽管这位前总统避开了竞选活动，但他还是招致了争议。
他与一名白人民族主义者和说唱歌手Kanye West共进晚餐，Kanye West一直在宣扬反犹太主义的比喻和阴谋;他关于废除部分宪法以让他重新掌权的建议;“重大宣布”是推出99美元的数字交易卡，这对他的竞选没有好处。
自他宣布以来，他还面临一系列法律损失，包括任命一名特别顾问监督司法部对特朗普佛罗里达州遗产中存在机密文件的调查，以及涉及特朗普试图推翻2020年大选结果的另一项调查的关键方面。特朗普的同名公司上个月被判犯有税务欺诈罪，原因是帮助高管逃避奢侈津贴的税收。在乔治亚州，一个特别的大陪审团似乎即将结束对他继续掌权的调查工作。
特朗普的潜在竞争对手花了几个月的时间为自己的竞选活动奠定基础，访问提前投票的州，在保守团体面前发表演讲，并建立可能对他们有利的关系。
总部位于爱荷华州的保守团体“家庭领袖”(Family Leader)的总裁兼首席执行官鲍勃·范德普拉茨(Bob Vander Plaats)指出，前副总统迈克·彭斯、前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥和前联合国大使妮基·黑利等共和党人都曾多次访问该州。
“他们已经完成了在艾奥瓦人面前展示所需的早期工作，他们很受欢迎，”他说，并指出自特朗普宣布参选以来的这段时间“异常平静”。从很多方面来说，这有点像是根本没有发生的公告，或者感觉不像是发生了，因为没有立即引起轰动。...我没有听到地面上的人说，“我等不及特朗普竞选了。”你听到特朗普的声明了吗?"
他将一些特朗普支持的候选人在2022年中期选举中的糟糕表现称为“警示旗”，并表示，即使是特朗普的支持者也愿意在2024年的竞选中支持其他人。
“对总统来说，我认为他肯定要赢得提名，”他说。
尽管存在弱点，特朗普仍是早期共和党的领跑者。虽然他被认为有可能在一对一的比赛中被击败，但他可能会从一个分裂反特朗普选票的拥挤领域中受益，就像他在2016年竞选并获胜时一样。
但特朗普前竞选顾问比翁多表示，在看到彭斯等可能的候选人访问提前投票的州后，他也认为这个领域是开放的。
“我不认为唐纳德·特朗普已经锁定了它。我不认为罗恩·德桑蒂斯把它锁起来了。我认为没有人把它锁起来，”他说。“在这一点上，这是一个开放的初选。”
Trump rings in 2023 facing headwinds in his White House run
WASHINGTON -- Donald Trump began 2022 on a high. Primary candidates were flocking to Florida to court the former president for a coveted endorsement. His rallies were drawing thousands. A bevy of investigations remained largely under the radar.
One year later, Trump is facing a very different reality.
He is mired in criminal investigations that could end with indictments. He has been blamed for Republicans' disappointing performance in the November elections. And while he is now a declared presidential candidate, the six weeks since he announced have been marked by self-inflicted crises. Trump has not held a single campaign event and he barely leaves the confines of his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
Instead of staving off challengers, his potential 2024 rivals appear ever more emboldened. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, fresh off a resounding reelection victory, increasingly is seen as Trump’s most formidable competition.
Trump's subdued campaign announcement has left even former stalwarts wondering whether he is serious about another run for the White House.
“There was a movie called ‘Failure to Launch.’ I think that’s what Donald Trump's process of running has been so far. He had the announcement, and he hasn’t done anything to back it up since then," said Michael Biundo, a GOP operative who advised Trump's 2016 campaign but is steering clear this time.
“What campaign?” asked longtime GOP donor Dan Eberhart, who gave $100,000 to Trump's 2020 reelection effort but is now gravitating to DeSantis. “Trump’s early launch seems more a reaction to DeSantis’ overperformance and a legal strategy against prosecution than a political campaign."
Trump campaign officials insist they have been spending the weeks since his Nov. 15 announcement methodically building out a political operation. Trump, they note, announced just before the holiday season, when politicians typically lie low, and he did so unusually early, giving him plenty of time to ramp up.
“This is a marathon and our game plan is being implemented by design," said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
“We’re also assembling top-level teams in early voting states and expanding our massive data operation to ensure we dominate on all fronts,” he said. "We are not going to play the media’s game that tries to dictate how we campaign.”
Trump also defended criticism of his campaign's slow start. "The Rallies will be bigger and better than ever (because our Country is going to Hell), but it’s a little bit early, don’t you think?” he wrote on his social media site.
While he has eschewed campaign events, the former president has nonetheless courted controversy.
There was his dinner with a white nationalist and the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, who has been spouting antisemitic tropes and conspiracies; his suggestions that parts of the Constitution be terminated to return him to power; and the “major announcement” that turned out to be the launch of $99 digital trading cards that do not benefit his campaign.
Since his announcement, he has also faced a series of legal losses, including the appointment of a special counsel to oversee the Justice Department’s investigation into the presence of classified documents at Trump's Florida estate as well as key aspects of a separate inquiry involving Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump's namesake company was convicted of tax fraud last month for helping executives dodge taxes on extravagant perks. In Georgia, a special grand jury appears to be wrapping up its work investigating his efforts to remain in power.
Trump's potential rivals have spent months laying the groundwork for their own campaigns, visiting early-voting states, speaking before conservative groups and building the kinds of relationships that could benefit them down the line.
Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Family Leader, an Iowa-based conservative group, pointed to Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have made repeat visits to the state.
“They’ve done the early work that is needed to be out in front of Iowans and they’re very well received,” he said, noting the period since Trump announced his candidacy has been “unusually quiet. In a lot of ways, it kind of feels like it's the announcement that didn’t even happen or doesn’t feel like it happened because there was no immediate buzz. ... I don't hear from people on he ground, ‘I can’t wait for Trump to run.' 'Did you hear Trump's announcement?'"
He called the poor performance of some Trump-backed candidates in the 2022 midterms a "caution flag” and said that even Trump supporters are open to backing someone else in the 2024 contest.
“For the president, I think he’s definitely going to have to earn the nomination," he said.
Despite his vulnerabilities, Trump remains the early GOP front-runner. While he is seen as potentially beatable in a one-on-one matchup, he is likely to benefit from a crowded field that splits the anti-Trump votes, just as he did when he ran and won in 2016.
But Biundo, the former Trump campaign adviser, said that after watching likely candidates such as Pence pay visits to early voting states, he too, believes the field is wide open.
“I don't think Donald Trump has it locked up. I don’t think Ron DeSantis has it locked up. I don’t think anyone has it locked up," he said. “At this point, it's an open primary.”
