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如果麦卡锡退出,谁会替代他成为众议院议长?

2023-01-07 10:57 -ABC  -  4454

众议院共和党领袖凯文·麦卡锡是仍在努力争取成为议长所需的票数他的会议中的少数人提出了一系列反对他的抗议提名,坚持要求他给予他们更多的影响力,重塑众议院的运作方式和共和党人的优先事项。

在选出议长之前,议院不能处理任何其他事务。周四中午休会后,议员们第七次恢复投票。

在两天的六轮投票中,麦卡锡和其他候选人——安迪·比格斯、吉姆·乔丹、拜伦·唐纳兹——都没有在众议院统一了该党如果每个立法者都投票,需要218票才能获胜。麦卡锡只得了不超过203分。其他的不超过20个。

麦卡锡发誓要继续战斗直到他赢得所需的支持。他的批评者呼吁他下台。

历史上的地狱边缘-100年来第一次议长投票失败-让公众关注成为美国最有权力的立法者之一和总统第二号人物的可能选择。

有些选项似乎比其他选项更有可能。

史蒂夫·斯卡利斯,洛杉矶。

斯卡利斯是众议院共和党领导层的成员,也是麦卡锡的二号人物,他一直忠于这位加州人,并在周二的第三轮投票前提名他为议长。

然而,路易斯安那州被一些立法者认为比麦卡锡在任的14年多时间里更一贯的保守。

熟悉动态的消息人士本周早些时候告诉美国广播公司新闻,斯卡利斯仍然致力于麦卡锡,但如果麦卡锡在他的议长职位上犹豫不决,他可以接受介入。这些人补充说,麦卡锡的一些“反对”票可能会更适合投票给斯卡利斯。

斯卡利斯拥有与其他众议院共和党人打交道的丰富经验,曾担任共和党研究委员会主席,并担任多数党和少数党党鞭,这一工作旨在确保成员们一起投票表决立法。

2017年,在为当年的国会棒球比赛进行练习时,斯卡利斯在一次枪击中幸存下来,从而赢得了全国的关注。他身中数枪,身受重伤,最终经历了漫长的康复过程。

吉姆·乔丹,俄亥俄州R

乔丹是众议院自由核心小组的主要保守派联合创始人,他在排挤俄亥俄州的共和党议长约翰·博纳和威斯康星州的保罗·瑞安方面发挥了作用,也是在博纳下台后抵制麦卡锡2015年失败的议长竞选的一部分。

然而,他和麦卡锡此后形成了强大的联盟,特别是在麦卡锡承诺他担任强大的众议院司法委员会主席之后,他可以从该委员会对拜登政府展开几项调查。

乔丹坚持说他不想当议长,并计划管理司法机构,在周二的第二轮投票中提名麦卡锡。

“我们需要团结在他周围,走到一起,处理这三件事,因为这是人民派我们来这里做的事情,”他当时说,他指的是关注监督,降低政府支出等。“我们欠他们的,美国人民,这个伟大国家的善良人民,向前一步走到一起,让议长当选,这样我们就可以解决这三件事。我希望你们投票给凯文·麦卡锡,这就是为什么我自豪地提名他为众议院议长。”

如果乔丹成为议长的主要竞争者,他可能会在赢得共和党温和派的支持方面面临一些困难。

伊莉斯·斯特凡尼克,纽约

2014年当选的斯特凡尼克在国会早期是后座议员。作为唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的坚定捍卫者,当共和党人对前众议员利兹·切尼(Liz Cheney,R-Wyo)感到失望时,她看到了她的明星崛起。

进入2021年的众议院共和党第三号人物切尼不断抨击特朗普在那年的暴动中许多共和党议员抱怨这是一个分散注意力的焦点。切尼最终被踢出了领导层,并在2022年失去了她的初选。

斯特凡尼克,比切尼拥有更温和的投票记录,转向右翼,赢得了取代切尼的领导职位。她现在是众议院最杰出的共和党女性之一。

但不清楚她是否会与麦卡锡有足够的不同,她一直强烈支持麦卡锡,在周二的第一轮投票中提名他。

佛罗里达州拜伦·唐纳兹。

唐纳德斯是众议院自由核心小组的另一名成员,于2020年首次当选。

他与斯特凡尼克竞争共和党会议主席的职位,结果失败了。在周二的第一轮投票中,他被德克萨斯州共和党人奇普·罗伊提名,并在周三的第一轮投票中再次提名。

罗伊指出,这意味着民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯(Hakeem Jeffries)和两党都提名了黑人议长候选人。

“提名拜伦有一个重要原因,那就是这个国家需要改变。这个国家需要的领导不能反映这个城市,这个城镇,已经严重崩溃,”罗伊周三说。

但与竞选中的其他选择不同,唐纳兹对众议院来说相对较新,即将开始他的第二个任期。

北卡罗来纳州帕特里克·麦克亨利

麦克亨利的名字作为一个可能的替代者悄然浮出水面,他正等待着宣誓就职第九个任期。

这位北卡罗莱纳州人是前共和党首席副鞭和众议院金融服务委员会的高级成员。

不过,麦克亨利一直是麦卡锡的公开支持者,如果麦卡锡退出议长竞选,他是否愿意填补空缺尚不清楚。

密歇根州弗雷德·厄普顿。

厄普顿刚刚离开国会,如果麦卡锡退出竞选,他已经成为民主党和温和派共和党之间潜在的妥协候选人。

厄普顿是他所在政党的中间派,在2021年起义后投票弹劾特朗普,可能会努力争取共和党人的大力支持。

鉴于持续的僵局推迟了保守派优先事项的实施,大多数民主党人也没有兴趣帮助共和党人选举议长。

厄普顿获胜的可能性很小,也不寻常,因为他不再是国会议员。但是宪法并没有规定议长必须在众议院才能被选举。厄普并没有排除这个想法,告诉底特律新闻这是“一个有趣的建议,我没有拒绝。”

纽约哈基姆·杰弗里斯

民主党领袖杰弗里斯(Jeffries)在议长投票期间一直在党团会议中获得所有212张选票——与共和党人相比,他的政党一直标榜这是团结。

但要真正成为议长,他需要与少数共和党人(可能是五六名)达成协议,基本上建立一个前所未有的联合政府,赋予刚刚在中期选举中失利的政党权力。

政党之间尖锐的政治分歧将是实现这一目标的主要障碍。

密歇根州贾斯汀·阿马什。

投票时,有人看到阿玛什出现在众议院的地板上。作为右翼众议院自由核心小组的创始成员,他在2019年离开共和党,成为独立人士,然后成为自由主义者,他是第一个呼吁弹劾特朗普的国会议员。

他周三在众议院对记者说,如果需要的话,他会把自己作为共识发言人候选人,他说他会与立法者分享这一提议。

阿马什的非正统政治,以及他已经不在国会的事实,将使他成为一个很难获得众议院多数席位的人物。

其他名字:特朗普可能成为议长吗?

其他几名共和党人的名字被抛出,包括亚利桑那州众议员安迪·比格斯、俄克拉荷马州众议员凯文·赫恩和印第安纳州众议员吉姆·班克斯。;前纽约州众议员李·泽尔丁;特朗普在周四首次获得投票——来自佛罗里达州的众议员马特·盖兹(Matt Gaetz)。

预计这些议员中没有人会真正行使议长的木槌,特别是特朗普,几乎肯定不会得到任何民主党人的投票或一些温和派和蓝州共和党人的支持,更不用说倾向于担任这一角色。

由于厄普顿或阿马什是替代人选,特朗普有可能成为议长,因为宪法没有规定此人必须是现任议员或当选议员。众议院被认为在技术上可以选择任何它想要的人作为发言人。

事实上,这些名字中的任何一个都在流传,这凸显了议长职位竞争的不可预测性,以及麦卡锡叛徒之间团结的一些裂缝。
 

Who are the alternatives to be House speaker if McCarthy withdraws? A look at possible names

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is still struggling to corral the necessary votes to become speaker as a minority of his conference puts up a series of protest nominees against him, insisting he grant their demands for more influence, reshaping how the House is run and what Republicans prioritize.

The chamber cannot conduct any other other business until a speaker is chosen. Lawmakers resumed voting for a seventh time after returning from adjournment Thursday at noon.

Across six rounds of voting over two days, neither McCarthy nor the alternatives -- Andy Biggs, Jim Jordan, Byron Donalds -- have so far unified the party in the House, where 218 votes are needed to win if every lawmaker votes. McCarthy has gotten no more than 203. The others no more than 20.

McCarthy has vowed to fight on until he wins the support needed. His critics have called for him to step aside.

The historic limbo -- the first time in 100 years a speaker vote failed -- puts a spotlight on possible alternatives to become one of the most powerful legislators in the country and second-in-line to the presidency.

Some of the options seem much more likely than others.

Steve Scalise, R-La.

Scalise, a member of House GOP leadership and McCarthy's No. 2, has been loyal to the Californian and nominated him for the speakership before the third round of voting, on Tuesday.

However, the Louisianan is considered by some lawmakers to have more consistent conservative credentials than McCarthy during his 14-plus years in office.

Sources familiar with the dynamics told ABC News earlier in the week that Scalise remains committed to McCarthy but that he could be open to stepping in if McCarthy falters in his speakership bid. The people added that some of McCarthy's "no" votes could be more comfortable voting for Scalise.

Scalise has extensive experience dealing with other House Republicans, having chaired the Republican Study Committee and serving as both majority and minority whip, a job meant to ensure that members vote together on legislation.

Scalise gained national prominence after he survived a shooting in 2017 during a practice for that year's Congressional Baseball Game. He was shot several times and severely injured, ultimately undergoing a lengthy recovery process.

Jim Jordan, R-Ohio

Jordan, an archconservative co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, played a role in pushing out Republican Speakers John Boehner of Ohio and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin -- and was part of the resistance to McCarthy's failed 2015 speakership run after Boehner stepped down.

However, he and McCarthy have since formed a strong alliance, particularly after McCarthy promised him the chairmanship of the powerful House Judiciary Committee, from which he could launch several investigations into the Biden administration.

Jordan has insisted he does not want to be speaker and plans to run judiciary, nominating McCarthy in the second round of voting, on Tuesday.

"We need to rally around him, come together, and deal with these three things, because this is what the people sent us here to do," he said then, referring to a focus on oversight, lowering government spending and more. "We owe it to them, the American people, the good people of this great country, to step forward to come together, get a speaker elected so we can address these three things. I hope you'll vote for Kevin McCarthy and that's why I'm proud to nominate him for speaker of the House."

Jordan would likely face some difficulties winning over Republican moderates if he were to emerge as a major contender for speaker.

Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.

Stefanik, elected in 2014, was a backbencher for the early part of her time in Congress. A staunch Donald Trump defender, she saw her star rise when Republicans grew disillusioned with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.

Cheney, the No. 3 House Republican entering 2021, continually lambasted Trump over that year's insurrection, a focus many GOP lawmakers complained was a distraction. Cheney was ultimately booted from leadership and lost her primary in 2022.

Stefanik, who had boasted a more moderate voting record than Cheney, tacked right and won the leadership slot to replace Cheney. She is now one of the most prominent Republican women in the House.

But it's unclear she would be different enough from McCarthy, whom she has strongly supported, nominating him on the first ballot Tuesday.

Byron Donalds, R-Fla.

Donalds, another member of the House Freedom Caucus, was first elected in 2020.

He ran against Stefanik for her role as the Republican conference chair and lost. He was nominated by Chip Roy, R-Texas, during the first round of voting Tuesday and again during the first round of voting Wednesday.

Roy noted that meant that, along with Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, both parties had now named Black nominees for speaker.

"There's an important reason for nominating Byron, and that is this country needs a change. This country needs leadership that does not reflect this city, this town, that is badly broken," Roy said Wednesday.

But unlike other options in the race, Donalds is relatively new to the House -- about to begin his second term.

Patrick McHenry, R-N.C.

McHenry's name has quietly surfaced as a possible alternative as he awaits to be sworn in for a ninth term.

The North Carolinian is a former GOP chief deputy whip and ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee.

Still, McHenry has been a vocal supporter of McCarthy, and it's not clear if he'd be willing to step into the void if McCarthy were to drop out of the speakership race.

Fred Upton, R-Mich.

Upton, who just left Congress, has been floated as a potential compromise candidate for speaker between Democrats and moderate Republicans if McCarthy bows out of the race.

Upton, a centrist in his party, voted to impeach Trump after the 2021 insurrection and would likely struggle to round up significant support from Republicans.

Most Democrats have also signaled little appetite to help Republicans elect a speaker given that the ongoing stalemate delays conservative priorities from being implemented.

An Upton win is very unlikely and would be unusual, as he is no longer a member of Congress. But the Constitution doesn't specify the speaker has to be in the House to be chosen. Upton has not ruled out the idea, telling The Detroit News that it's "an intriguing suggestion that I have not rejected."

Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Jeffries, the Democratic leader, has consistently received all 212 votes in his caucus during the speaker votes -- something his party has touted as unity, compared to Republicans.

But to actually become speaker, he would need to reach an agreement with a handful of Republicans (likely five or six), essentially creating an unprecedented coalition government that would empower the party that just lost in the midterm elections.

The sharp political differences between the parties would be a major obstacle to this.

Justin Amash, L-Mich.

Amash has been seen on the House floor amid the voting. A founding member of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus who left the Republican Party in 2019 to become an independent and then a libertarian, he was the first member of Congress to call for Trump to be impeached.

He spoke to reporters on Wednesday at the House, saying he was there to pitch himself as a consensus speaker candidate if needed -- a proposal he said he would share with lawmakers.

Amash's unorthodox politics, and the fact that he is no longer in Congress, would make him a difficult figure to rally a majority of the House.

Other names: Could Trump be speaker?

Several other Republicans have had their names tossed out, including Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., Kevin Hern, R-Okla., and Jim Banks, R-Ind.; former Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y.; and Trump, who got a vote for the first time on Thursday -- from Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

None of those lawmakers are anticipated to actually wield the speaker's gavel and Trump, in particular, would almost certainly never receive a single Democratic vote or support from some moderate and blue-state Republicans, let alone be inclined to assume the role.

As with Upton or Amash as alternatives, Trump-as-speaker would be possible because the Constitution doesn't specify that the person be a current member or member-elect. The House is thought to technically be able to chose whomever it wants as speaker.

The fact that any of these names are being bandied about underscores the unpredictability of the speakership contest and some cracks in unity among the McCarthy renegades.

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