众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡，加州共和党人，提出手握木槌周六，经过激烈的共和党谈判，但让步他在这一过程中所做的一切加剧了人们对今年晚些时候潜在经济危机的担忧。
经济学家和预算专家告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，近日来极右翼众议院议员的授权增加了就联邦政府应如何支付过去的债务和分配未来支出进行有争议的高风险谈判的风险。
未能在快速逼近的最后期限前达成协议将使金融市场陷入混乱，在这个时候提高利率借贷成本上升他们补充称，这已经对经济活动构成压力，而且几乎肯定会导致衰退。
几个月内，国会将需要通过两项措施来避免经济混乱:提高债务限额，允许美国政府借钱支付过去的支出，确保国家继续向债权人支付欠款;以及保证政府下一个财政年度资金的预算。
在议长投票中发挥杠杆作用的保守派共和党人表示，除非民主党同意大幅削减支出，否则不会提高债务上限;然而，拜登政府已经表示，不会参与以年度借款增加为条件的政策谈判。
经济学家和预算专家说，与此同时，一些共和党人提出的大幅削减支出有可能导致明年的预算陷入僵局，这可能导致政府关闭，从而停止一些联邦支付。
“上周的事件相当令人不安，”两党政策中心经济政策主任沙伊·阿卡巴斯说。“这将使通过任何立法比以往更加困难，在一个分裂的政府下，从一开始就不容易。”
“这对美国经济和美国人的金融福祉来说是一个严重的风险，”他补充说。
关于众议院最近的动荡对美国经济意味着什么，你需要知道以下几点:
债务限额
共和党人对麦卡锡的争论部分集中在该党对国家的态度上债务限额，法律允许美国为偿还债务而借入的金额。
由于联邦政府的年度支出超过税收，美国已经积累了数十万亿美元的债务，要求该国不断付款，以便它不会拖欠未偿贷款。
反过来，国会每年都会通过一项措施，允许美国财政部增加借款金额。在某些年份，债务上限的提高已经成为一个政治避雷针，引发了关于国家财政责任的辩论。比如，2011年，国会共和党人向时任总统巴拉克·奥巴马施压，要求他同意削减部分支出，以赢得他们对提高债务上限的支持。
麦卡锡努力争取极右翼议员的支持，他同意拒绝提高债务限额，除非民主党同意大幅削减开支纽约时报举报。
Akabas表示，关于债务限额的争议将在几个月内达到临界点，他表示，该组织预计政府将无法在本日历年中期的某个时候履行其债务义务。
经济学家和预算分析师表示，未能提高债务上限以及随之而来的美国债务违约(此前从未发生过)将对美国和全球经济造成巨大伤害，因为美国国债的可信度是国内和国际投资的基石。
他们说，随着对美国借款人的信心下降，一些企业的贷款利率将会上升，从而放缓经济活动，因为美国已经面临着更高的衰退风险。此外，他们补充说，股市将会下跌，威胁到数百万美国人的退休储蓄。
“债务违约将是金融市场的灾难，也是美国在世界上地位的灾难，”布兰德斯国际商学院金融学教授丹尼尔·伯格斯特雷瑟告诉美国广播公司新闻。
“美国的政治和经济体系足够强大，以至于许多人将美国国债视为尽可能确定的事情，”他补充说，并指出后果可能包括美元贬值。
根据一家机构的数据，美国债务违约可能导致美国经济失去300万个工作岗位，30年期抵押贷款成本平均上涨13万美元，一个接近退休的典型工人的401(k)储蓄将减少2万美元报告来自中间偏左的智库第三条道路。
“如果我们在任何相当长的时间里违反债务上限，我们几乎肯定会将经济推入衰退，”第三条道路的经济项目主任扎克·莫勒告诉美国广播公司新闻。
两党政策中心的阿卡巴斯将美国债务违约的经济后果描述为“风险的爆发”。
“这是一片未知的水域，”他补充道。“这可能会给美国纳税人、美国经济和全球经济带来成本。”
政府关门
除了支付之前的费用，联邦政府还需要就如何分配从10月份开始的下一个财政年度的资金达成一致。
如果国会届时没有通过预算，美国政府将关闭，因为各机构难以维持政府项目和支付联邦雇员的工资。
一群极右翼共和党人呼吁大幅削减政府支出，这将使美国走上在10年内平衡预算的道路。
作为对保守派让步的一部分，麦卡锡发誓要倡导大幅削减，包括缩减医疗保险和社会保障等福利项目，这些项目是许多美国老年人财务健康的保障纽约时报举报。
经济学家和预算分析师表示，极右翼共和党人要求的削减支出规模将大幅削减联邦项目，但具体细节仍不明朗，因为立法者尚未提出详细的提案。
华盛顿负责任的联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)主席玛雅·麦克吉尼斯(Maya MacGuineas)表示，“在10年内平衡预算太过沉重，不可能成为一项严肃的政策提议。”该委员会主张通过削减支出和增加税收来承担财政责任。
“他们要求的政策需要是可以实现的，”她告诉ABC新闻。
与此同时，如果国会未能制定出预算，政府关门，动荡可能会产生深远的影响，包括一些国家公园的关闭和护照处理等政府服务的削减。
“虽然具有破坏性，但关闭并不是灾难性的，”她说。
阿卡巴斯说，政府关闭还会带来一些经济痛苦，因为美国人依赖的一些项目减少，一些联邦雇员暂停工作。
“这对经济肯定没有好处，”他说。
麦克几内亚说，最近几天向极右翼共和党人做出的让步让她不确定债务限额和预算谈判将如何解决。
“这让我头疼，”她说。“我不知道——这让我很不舒服。”
Here's what House Speaker McCarthy's chaotic election means for the economy and debt ceiling
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., emerged with gavel in hand on Saturday after fierce Republican negotiations, but the concessions he made in the process have heightened concern over a potential economic crisis later this year.
The empowerment of far-right House members in recent days has raised the risk of contentious, high-stakes negotiations over how the federal government should pay for past debts and allocate future spending, economists and budget experts told ABC News.
Failure to reach an agreement before fast-approaching deadlines would send financial markets into turmoil, raise interest rates at a moment when elevated borrowing costs already weigh on economic activity and all but ensure a recession, they added.
Within months, Congress will need to pass two measures in order to avert economic disruption: a debt-limit increase that allows the U.S. government to borrow money for past expenditures, ensuring that the nation continues paying creditors what it owes; as well as a budget that keeps the government funded for next fiscal year.
The faction of conservative Republicans that exerted leverage in the speaker vote has indicated it would not raise the debt limit unless Democrats agree to significant spending cuts; the Biden administration, however, has said it will not take part in policy negotiations conditioned upon the annual borrowing hike.
Sharp spending cuts put forward by some Republicans, meanwhile, risk gridlock over next year's budget, which could cause a government shutdown that halts some federal payments, economists and budget experts said.
"The events of last week are quite disconcerting," Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. "It's going to make passing any legislation more difficult than usual, and it's never easy under a divided government to start with."
"It is a serious risk for the U.S. economy and for Americans' financial wellbeing," he added.
Here's what you need to know about what recent turmoil in the House of Representatives means for the U.S. economy:
Debt limit
The dispute among Republicans over McCarthy centered in part on the party's approach to the nation's debt limit, the amount of money that the U.S. is legally permitted to borrow in order to cover its debt.
Since yearly spending by the federal government exceeds tax revenue, the U.S. has accrued tens of trillions of dollars in debt, requiring the country to make ongoing payments so that it doesn't default on outstanding loans.
In turn, Congress annually passes a measure that allows the U.S. Treasury to increase the amount it can borrow. In some years, the debt-limit increase has become a political lightning rod, setting off debate over the nation's fiscal responsibility. In 2011, for instance, Congressional Republicans pressured then-President Barack Obama to agree to some spending cuts in order to win their support for a debt-limit hike.
In his effort gain the support of far-right House members, McCarthy agreed to refuse an increase in the debt limit unless Democrats agree to major spending cuts, the New York Times reported.
A dispute over the debt limit will reach a tipping point within months, according to Akabas, who said the organization projects the government will fail to meet its debt obligations at some point in the middle of this calendar year.
Failure to raise the debt limit and ensuing default on U.S. debt – which have never happened before – would cause immense harm to the U.S. and global economies, since the trustworthiness of U.S. Treasury bonds amounts to a cornerstone of domestic and international investment, economists and budget analysts said.
As confidence in U.S. borrowers falls, interest rates on loans for some businesses would rise, slowing economic activity as the U.S. already faces elevated recession risk, they said. Moreover, the stock market would falter, threatening the retirement savings of millions of Americans, they added.
"A default on the debt would be a catastrophe for financial markets and a catastrophe for America's standing in the world," Daniel Bergstresser, finance professor at the Brandeis International Business School, told ABC News.
"The American political and economic system is great enough that many treat US Treasury obligations as being as close to a sure thing as exists," he added, noting that consequences would likely include a fall in the value of the U.S. dollar.
A default on U.S. debt could shed 3 million jobs from the economy, drive up the cost of a 30-year mortgage by an average of $130,000 and shrink 401(k) savings for a typical worker near retirement by $20,000, according to a report from center-left think tank Third Way.
"If we violate the debt limit for any significant portion of time, we're almost certain to push the economy into a recession," Zach Moller, director of the economic program at Third Way, told ABC News.
Akabas, of the Bipartisan Policy Center, described the economic consequences of U.S. debt default as a "conflagration of risks."
"It's uncharted waters," he added. "It would likely bring costs for the U.S. taxpayer, the American economy and the global economy."
Government shutdown
In addition to covering its previous expenses, the federal government will need to reach an agreement on how it should allocate money for next fiscal year, which begins in October.
If Congress does not pass a budget by then, the U.S. government will shut down, as agencies struggle to sustain government programs and pay federal employees.
A group of far-right Republicans has called for major cuts to government spending that would set the nation on course to balance its budget in 10 years.
As part of concessions made to the conservative faction, McCarthy has vowed to advocate for sharp cutbacks that include a shrinking of entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security – bulwarks of financial health for many older Americans, the New York Times reported.
Spending cuts on the scale demanded by far-right Republicans would dramatically curtail federal programs, though specifics remain murky since lawmakers have yet to put forward a detailed proposal, economists and budget analysts said.
"Balancing the budget in 10 years is too heavy a lift to be a serious policy proposal," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in Washington, which advocates for fiscal responsibility through spending cuts and tax hikes.
"The policy they're asking for needs to be achievable," she told ABC News.
Meanwhile, if Congress fails to hash out a budget and the government shuts down, the turmoil could have far-reaching effects, including the closure of some national parks and cuts to government services like passport processing.
"While disruptive, shutdowns aren't disastrous," she said.
A government shutdown would also impose some economic pain, as the nation sees a reduction of some programs on which Americans rely and a pause in work for some federal employees, Akabas said.
"It's certainly not good for the economy," he said.
MacGuineas said concessions made to far-right Republicans in recent days have left her uncertain about how negotiations over the debt limit and budget will be resolved.
"It makes my head hurt," she said. "I don't know – and that makes me very uncomfortable."
