上周对唐纳德·特朗普的起诉标志着第一次一位前总统曾面临联邦指控这也引发了关于他的政治前途会受到何种影响的新问题一次历史性的起诉.
针对特朗普的37项指控是他在离开白宫后如何处理政府机密的最新指控他最严重的法律问题.
但是民调、共和党人的反应-包括特朗普2024年的一些对手-以及后果特朗普的第一份起诉书这表明，目前还不清楚该案件是否会对公众产生持久的影响。
接近相等比例的美国人认为，特朗普应该受到指控，对他的指控是出于政治动机，美国广播公司新闻/益普索上周的调查发现.
然而，显而易见的是，这项指控改变了共和党初选的进程。
前南卡罗莱纳州州长妮基·黑利是特朗普面临的2024年候选人，她周一在福克斯新闻频道表示，她对联邦执法和特朗普的可疑行为都感到担忧。
“两件事可以同时为真。第一，DOJ和联邦调查局已经失去了美国人民的信任。...第二件事也可能是真的，如果这份起诉书是真的，如果它所说的是真的，特朗普总统对我们的国家安全非常鲁莽，”她说。
特朗普是将于周二下午被传讯在佛罗里达。他说他是无辜的。他此前对自己在纽约面临的重罪指控表示不服，这些指控与他在2016年总统大选前向一名成人电影女演员支付封口费有关。
他一再否认有任何不当行为，并声称自己受到政治迫害。检察官进行了反击。
“这份起诉书是由佛罗里达州南区的一个公民组成的大陪审团投票表决的，我邀请每个人都完整地阅读它，以了解被指控罪行的范围和严重性，”负责监督针对特朗普的联邦案件的特别顾问杰克·史密斯周五表示。
以下是特朗普第二次被起诉后的关键政治要点和问题。
民意调查显示美国人的矛盾情绪
美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查于周五和周六在910名美国成年人的随机全国样本中进行，发现对指控的适当性和严重性以及特朗普现在是否应该退出竞选存在明显分歧。
48%的美国人表示，特朗普应该受到犯罪指控，而35%的人表示他不应该受到指控，17%的人表示他们不知道。46%的人说特朗普应该暂停竞选白宫，38%的人说他不应该，16%的人不知道。
然而，47%的受访者也表示，他们认为这些指控是出于政治动机，而37%的人表示不是，16%的人不确定。
一般来说，非白人和受过大学教育的人在这些问题上不太喜欢特朗普。
大约60%的美国人(61%)认为指控非常严重或有些严重，只有28%的人认为不太严重或根本不严重。
特朗普可能面临政治危险的一个迹象是，约63%的独立人士称这些指控有些或非常严重，38%的共和党人也这么说。不出所料，绝大多数民主党人认为指控有些严重或非常严重，91%的人这样认为。
45%的独立人士表示，特朗普应该受到指控，而33%的人表示他不应该受到指控。大多数(86%)民主党人表示特朗普应该受到指控，而只有16%的共和党人表示应该受到指控。
更重要的是，44%的独立人士表示特朗普应该结束他的2024年竞选，而37%的人表示他不应该。约四分之三(76%)的民主党人也认为特朗普应该暂停竞选。然而，略多于三分之二(68%)的共和党人不同意，称特朗普不应暂停竞选。
另一方面，45%的独立人士也表示，他们认为此案是出于政治动机，而37%的人表示不是。16%的民主党人和80%的共和党人认为这也是出于政治动机。
随着其他候选人分裂，特朗普可能会看到初选的推动
鉴于他之前的刑事指控后发生的事情，特朗普可以看到他筹款的又一次增长在他第二次被起诉后，至少在初选中，他得到了共和党选民的支持。
美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)在特朗普在纽约首次被起诉后进行的一项民调显示，他在初选中领先于佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)，后者是他最接近的竞争对手，而德桑蒂斯此前的平均民调为由FiveThirtyEight编译.
“目前民调中没有任何迹象表明唐纳德·特朗普受到联邦起诉或任何起诉的伤害。美国广播公司新闻政治主任里克·克莱因周日在美国广播公司的“本周”节目中说:“几个月前纽约的情况实际上可能有助于他的地位。”
“这可能是一个更严重的案件，也可能是他的竞争对手在制造案件，他们可以稍微介入并改变这些动态，”克莱恩说，“但对于那些说唐纳德·特朗普因面临刑事指控而在政治上受到影响的人来说，现在还没有任何证据。”
特朗普的一些挑战者团结起来为他辩护，比如维韦克·拉马斯瓦米。其他人，如德桑蒂斯，批评联邦当局，用他们的话说，不公平地针对特朗普。
但是一些共和党候选人试图以他被指控的行为为由起诉他不合适。
“我的观点是，这对我们的国家不利，对总统任期不利，这是一个合法的竞选问题。我们不需要这个国家的总司令不保护我们国家的秘密，”前阿肯色州州长阿萨·哈钦森在CNN上说。“如果这些指控和可能的原因被发现针对任何军事人员，任何不是唐纳德·特朗普的公务员，他们早就被起诉了。”
无党派人士可以给民主党提供一个机会
根据出口民调，独立选民是2020年选举中支持民主党的关键投票集团。2020年，自我认同的独立选民以54比41的优势投票支持民主党，根据投票后的调查.
美国广播公司新闻/益普索关于特朗普被起诉的最新调查显示，他们不支持他，而民主党和共和党选民在这个问题上基本上打破了党派界限。
在独立人士中，45%的人说特朗普应该受到指控，三分之一的人说他不应该受到指控，22%的人说他们不知道。总体而言，在这次民意调查中，57%的独立人士对特朗普持负面看法，同样，大多数独立人士也更有可能认为这些指控是严重的。
这些数字似乎预示着民主党在过去的周期中被大多数无党派人士所选择。
两党领先者的支持率都很低
特朗普和拜登都是遭受同样令人沮丧的支持率在新的ABC新闻/益普索民意调查中。两人的支持率都是31%，尽管特朗普的支持率比他首次被起诉后的25%有所上升，而拜登的支持率则保持不变。
这些数字引发了这两个问题一些民主党人的绝望特朗普的批评者指责他阻止更多有资格当选的共和党人在初选中取得进展。
“我不认为川普能赢得大选，但这是他诋毁蒂姆·斯科特这样的人的好方法，蒂姆·斯科特是一个非常强大的候选人，”洛杉矶共和党参议员比尔·卡西迪说。上个月，美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)援引另一位共和党初选候选人南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特(Tim Scott)的话说。
与此同时，周日在“本周”节目中，白宫的亲密盟友特拉华州民主党参议员克里斯·库恩斯(Chris Coons)承认，民调显示拜登落后于或与特朗普持平。
“鉴于(特朗普的)行为和他的记录，我认为我们应该担心，”他说。
库恩斯后来告诉主播乔治·斯特凡诺普洛斯，“我认为乔·拜登在这次竞选中最好的事情就是通过继续解决大问题来继续展示他是一个有效和有能力的总统”——所有这些都“尽管受到前总统特朗普不断上升的法律问题的干扰。”
特朗普被起诉迫使他的竞争对手谈论他
周四晚上联邦指控的消息立即震动了初选，使候选人脱离了他们定期安排的节目，并分裂了共和党领域，特朗普在竞选中的一些批评者趁机强调了他的法律风险——尽管共和党选民在民调中表示他们拒绝起诉。
“事实是，这些事实是毁灭性的，”另一位初选候选人、前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂周日说。
“对我们国家来说，更大的问题是，这是我们希望想成为美国总统的人采取的行为方式吗?”克里斯蒂说。
然而，其他人站在了前总统一边，企业家拉马斯瓦米发誓如果特朗普当选总统，他将赦免特朗普——这是一个提议哈钦森称之为“冒犯”-其他人则强调他们所认为的政治化的司法系统。
斯科特周一表示:“我们今天在乔·拜登总统的政府中看到的是双重标准。”。“这种双重标准既不符合美国精神，也不可接受。你不能一边保护民主党人，一边瞄准和猎杀共和党人。”
“这个案子是个严重的案子....但在美国，在被证明有罪之前，你仍然是无辜的，”他说。
德桑蒂斯，他已经更直接地抨击特朗普在审讯中，更多地间接提到了前总统的案子。男性谴责他所谓的政府“武器化”指着希拉里·克林顿，谁被调查但最终没有被起诉在检察官发现“缺乏意图”后，当局说。
德桑蒂斯周日表示:“我记得，你知道，希拉里[克林顿]与机密有电子邮件，我的观点是，天哪，作为一名海军军官，如果我从我的部门拿走了机密，我会在纽约一分钟内被法办，但他们似乎不在乎这一点。”
与拉马斯瓦米不同，德桑蒂斯没有承诺如果当选将赦免特朗普。共和党候选人和前副总统迈克·彭斯被问及此事，但上周回避了，他说，“我不会和假设的人说话。”
起诉加剧了执法方面的分歧
除了竞选活动之外，这项指控似乎加剧了党派在执法问题上的分歧。
多年来，民主党人一直陷入党内关于警务改革的辩论，共和党人利用这一点来打击民主党，因为他们声称对犯罪手软。
但现在，保守派指责联邦执法部门存在偏见，甚至考虑解除部分或全部联邦调查局的资金。
虽然特朗普联邦案件的时间表仍不清楚——他在纽约案件中的审判定于2024年3月进行——但几乎可以肯定的是，对他的指控将在未来几个月内笼罩共和党初选。
方法——这项ABC News/益普索民意调查于2023年6月9日至10日使用益普索公共事务知识小组以英语和西班牙语在910名美国成年人的随机全国样本中进行，其中共和党受访者的样本量超过了他们在总人口中的正确比例。结果的抽样误差为3.7点，包括设计效果。党派分歧为26-25-41%，民主党-共和党-无党派。点击此处查看投票结果和方法详情。(注意:将单词“here”链接到Topline文档。)
As voters split over Trump indictment, key political questions and takeaways from historic charges
Last week's indictment of Donald Trump, marking the first time a former president has ever faced federal charges, also created new questions about how his political future could be affected by a historic prosecution.
The 37 counts against Trump over how he allegedly handled government secrets after leaving the White House are the latest and most serious of his legal issues.
But polling, reactions from Republicans -- including some of Trump's 2024 opponents -- and the aftermath of Trump's first indictment, in New York City, show that it's so far unclear whether the case will have lasting impact on the public.
A near equal percentage of Americans believe both that Trump should have been charged and that the charges against him were politically motivated, an ABC News/Ipsos survey last week found.
What is clear, however, is that the indictment has changed the course of the Republican primary campaign.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a 2024 candidate facing Trump, said on Fox News on Monday that she had concerns both about federal law enforcement and about Trump's suspected behavior.
"Two things can be true at the same time. One, the DOJ and FBI have lost all credibility with the American people. ... The second thing can also be true if this indictment is true, if what it says is actually the case, President Trump was incredibly reckless with our national security," she said.
Trump is set to be arraigned on Tuesday afternoon in Florida. He has said he is innocent. He previously pleaded not guilty to the felony charges he faces in New York City related to hush money he paid to an adult film actress before the 2016 presidential election.
He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and claims he is being politically persecuted. Prosecutors have pushed back.
"This indictment was voted by a grand jury of citizens in the Southern District of Florida, and I invite everyone to read it in full to understand the scope and the gravity of the crimes charged," special counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing the federal case against Trump, said on Friday.
Here are key political takeaways and questions after Trump's second indictment.
Poll shows contradictory feelings among Americans
The ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted on Friday and Saturday among a random national sample of 910 U.S. adults, found sharp divides on the appropriateness and seriousness of the charges as well as whether Trump should now leave the race.
Forty-eight percent of Americans said Trump should have been charged with crimes, while 35% said he should not have been and 17% said they didn't know. And 46% said Trump should suspend his bid for the White House, while 38% said he should not and 16% didn't know.
However, 47% of respondents also said they believed the charges were politically motivated, while 37% said they weren't and 16% weren't sure.
Generally speaking, non-whites and those with a college education were less favorable to Trump on these questions.
About six in 10 Americans (61%) said that the charges were very or somewhat serious, while only 28% said they were not too serious or not serious at all.
In a sign of possible political danger for Trump, about 63% of independents called the charges somewhat or very serious, and 38% of Republicans said the same. Democrats, unsurprisingly, overwhelmingly thought the charges were somewhat or very serious, with 91% saying so.
Forty-five percent of independents said that Trump should have been charged versus 33% percent who said he should not have been. A large majority (86%) of Democrats said Trump should have been charged compared to only 16% of Republicans.
What's more, 44% of independents said Trump should end his 2024 campaign, while 37% said he should not. About three-quarters (76%) of Democrats also thought Trump should suspend his campaign. However, just over two-thirds (68%) of Republicans disagreed, saying Trump should not suspend his campaign.
On the other hand, 45% of independents also said they felt the case was politically motivated, while 37% said it wasn't. Sixteen percent of Democrats and 80% of Republicans said it was politically motivated, too.
Trump could see primary boost as other candidates split
Given what happened after his previous criminal charges, Trump could see another increase in his fundraising and in support from Republican voters after his second indictment -- at least in the primary.
An ABC News poll conducted after Trump's first indictment in New York showed that he gained some ground in the primary over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest competitor, compared to DeSantis' previous polling average as compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
"There's nothing in polling right now that suggests that Donald Trump is being hurt by federal indictments, by any indictments. The case of New York from a couple of months ago, it may have actually helped his standing," ABC News Political Director Rick Klein said Sunday on ABC's "This Week."
"It may be that this case is more serious, it may be that his rivals are making the case and they can sort of get in there a little bit and change these dynamics," Klein said, "but for those who are saying that Donald Trump is done politically as a result of facing criminal charges, there's just no evidence of that yet."
Some of Trump's challengers have rallied to his defense, like Vivek Ramaswamy. Others, like DeSantis, have criticized federal authorities for, in their words, unfairly targeting Trump.
But some Republican candidates have tried to prosecute the case that he is unfit, based on his alleged conduct.
"My point is that this is bad for our country, bad for the presidency, and it is a legitimate campaign issue. We do not need to have our commander in chief of this country not protecting our nation's secrets," former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said on CNN. "If these allegations and probable cause have been found against any military person, any public servant that wasn't named Donald Trump, they would have been indicted a long time ago."
Independents could offer Democrats an opening
Independents were a key voting bloc supporting Democrats in the 2020 election, according to exit polls. Self-identified independents voted Democrat by a 54-41 margin in 2020, according to the exit polling.
The latest ABC News/Ipsos survey on Trump's indictment shows they aren't embracing him, while Democratic and Republican voters have largely broken along partisan lines on the issue.
Among independents, 45% said Trump should have been charged, a third said he should not have been and 22% said they didn't know. Overall, 57% of independents in this poll had an unfavorable view of Trump and, again, a majority of independents were also more likely to count the charges as serious.
The numbers seem to bode well for a Democratic Party that has been chosen by a majority of independents in past cycles.
Low favorability for both parties' front-runners
Both Trump and Biden suffer from identically dismal favorability ratings in the new ABC News/Ipsos poll. Both stand at 31% although Trump's is up from 25% in the days after his first indictment while Biden's has remained about the same.
Those numbers are sparking both handwringing from some Democrats and barbs from Trump's critics that he is blocking more electable Republicans from making gains in the primary.
"I don't think Trump can win a general election, but that is a nice way for him to diss people like Tim Scott, who is a pretty formidable candidate," Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., said on CNN last month, referencing South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, another GOP primary candidate.
Meanwhile, on Sunday on "This Week," Delaware Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, a close ally of the White House, acknowledged polling showing Biden trailing or tied with Trump.
"I think we should be worried given [Trump's] conduct and given his record," he said.
Coons later told anchor George Stephanopoulos, "I think the best thing for Joe Biden to do in this campaign is to keep showing that he is an effective and capable president by continuing to solve big problems" -- all "despite the distractions of former President Trump's rising legal problems."
Trump indictment forces his rivals to talk about him
News of the federal charges on Thursday night immediately shook the primary, taking candidates off their regularly scheduled programming and dividing the GOP field, with some of Trump's critics in the race taking the chance to highlight his legal peril -- despite Republican voters saying in polls that they reject the indictment.
"The fact is that these facts are devastating," former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, another primary candidate, said on Sunday.
"The bigger issue for our country is, is this the type of conduct that we want from someone who wants to be president of the United States?" Christie said.
Others, however, sided with the former president, with entrepreneur Ramaswamy vowing to pardon Trump if he's elected president -- an offer that Hutchinson labeled "offensive" -- and others emphasizing what they view as a politicized justice system.
"What we see today across this administration of President Joe Biden is a double standard," Scott said Monday. "That double standard is both un-American and unacceptable. You can't protect Democrats while targeting and hunting Republicans."
"This case is a serious case .... But in America, you're still innocent until proven guilty," he said.
DeSantis, who has been slamming Trump more directly on the trail, made more indirect references to the former president's case. He decried what he called government "weaponization" and pointed to Hillary Clinton, who was investigated but ultimately not charged after prosecutors found "a lack of intent," authorities have said.
"I remember, you know, Hillary [Clinton] had emails with the classified, and my view was, gee, as a naval officer, if I would have taken classified from my department, I would have been court marshaled in a New York minute, and yet they seem to not care about that," DeSantis said on Sunday.
Unlike Ramaswamy, DeSantis has not promised a pardon to Trump if elected. GOP candidate and former Vice President Mike Pence was asked about it but avoided weighing in last week, saying, "I'm not going to speak to hypotheticals."
Indictment fuels divides over law enforcement
Beyond the campaign trail, the indictment appears to be exacerbating partisan divides over law enforcement.
Democrats for years have been mired in an intraparty debate over changes to policing, which Republicans have taken advantage of to hit the party as, they claim, soft on crime.
But now, conservatives are accusing federal law enforcement of bias and even mulling efforts to defund part or all of the FBI.
While the timeline for Trump's federal case remains unclear -- and with his trial in the New York case slated for March 2024 -- it's all but certain that the charges against him will shadow the Republican primary race for months to come.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using Ipsos Public Affairs‘ KnowledgePanel® June 9-10, 2023, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 910 U.S. adults with an oversample of Republican respondents weighted to their correct proportion in the general population. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 26-25-41 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll’s topline results and details on the methodology here. (NOTE: LINK the word “here” to the Topline document. )
