乔·拜登总统倾向于将“拜登经济学”作为他的政治品牌2024连任努力进入高速档。
作为“投资美国”之旅的一部分，他和高级顾问周四在摇摆州南卡罗来纳州停留，继续推动不断改善经济新闻和他在公众眼中的整体愿景。
在那里，他宣布了将在全国创造1800个就业机会的清洁能源投资。
“我们的计划正在奏效，”拜登说。“我最引以为豪的一件事是，它在任何地方都能工作。”
这一新的信息是在政府受到通货膨胀、失业等积极数据的鼓舞之际发出的。
对选民来说，经济状况及其对美国人个人的影响传统上是一个关键问题，如果不是最重要的问题。但民调显示，他们的看法可能落后于数字，许多人仍然不相信拜登在处理经济方面做得很好，而共和党人在竞选活动的每个转折点都在攻击他。
无党派经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)所长海蒂·谢尔霍尔兹(Heidi Shierholz)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，数据显示的经济状况与人们认为的经济状况之间存在前所未有的差距。
2023年7月6日，乔·拜登总统在南卡罗来纳州西哥伦比亚的Flex有限公司谈到Enphase Energy和Flex之间的新制造伙伴关系。
Brendan Smialowski/法新社
改善经济状况
通货膨胀已经连续11个月下降，从去年6月9.1%的峰值下降到5月的4.0%。失业率保持在3.7%，这是近50年来的最低水平，自拜登执政以来，已经增加了1300万个就业岗位。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周称赞其弹性他说，虽然衰退仍有可能，但可能性不大。
穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“在过去的一年里，事情比许多经济学家想象的要好得多。”。
白宫除了吹捧上述经济指标外，还在推动拜登领导下通过的三项主要立法，他们说这些立法将在未来十年重振美国经济:芯片和科学法案，通货膨胀削减法案和基础设施投资和就业法案。
A新报告财政部强调，自2021年底和法案通过以来，制造业建筑支出翻了一番。
“很长时间以来，美国第一次出现了建设高科技工厂的热情，”曾在拜登和奥巴马政府担任贸易和财政部官员的布拉德·塞瑟(Brad Setser)说。
尽管取得了进展，但在经济问题上，拜登仍然没有得到选民的支持。一个最近的民意调查美国广播公司新闻和华盛顿邮报发现，54-36%的美国人认为前总统唐纳德·特朗普在任时在处理经济方面比拜登做得更好。
为什么选民仍然不相信
经济学家说，选民可能不信任拜登的一个主要原因是，通货膨胀率仍然高得令人不安，工资刚刚开始跟上物价上涨。鲍威尔上周表示，2%的目标通胀率预计要到2025年才能达到，更多的加息可能会使该数据点下降。
“高得令人痛苦，”赞迪谈到通货膨胀时说。“情况有所缓和，但人们仍不得不拿出更多收入来维持购买力。”
政治观察人士还指出，坏的经济消息，比如汽油价格上涨到每加仑5美元以上，或者通货膨胀达到40年来的最高水平，往往比好的经济消息在新闻和选民中更加突出。
共和党人在这方面团结一致抨击拜登，指责他通过大规模支出刺激通货膨胀，并通过“唤醒”政策伤害公司。
经济和政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)的联合创始人迪安·贝克(Dean Baker)表示，迄今为止，民主党人的反击力度较弱。
“民主党人在关注一个信息并让每个人重复它方面效率低得多，”贝克告诉美国广播公司新闻。“不管是好是坏，共和党人基本上都是这么做的。所以我认为拜登面临着一场艰苦的战斗，但我认为他确实有一个非常好的故事可以推销。”
Why Americans aren't giving Biden credit on improving economy, according to experts
President Joe Biden is leaning into the political branding "Bidenomics" as his2024 reelection effortkicks into high gear.
He and top advisers renewed their push to keep improving economic news and his overall sprawling vision in the public eye with a stop Thursday in the swing state of South Carolina as part of an "Investing in America" tour.
There, he announced clean energy investments that will create 1,800 jobs nationwide.
"Our plan is working," Biden said. "And one of the things I'm proudest of is it's working everywhere."
The fresh messaging comes as the administration has been buoyed by positive numbers on inflation, unemployment and more.
The state of the economy and how it affects Americans personally is traditionally a key -- if not the most important -- issue for voters. But their perceptions can lag behind the numbers and many remain unconvinced Biden has done a good job handling the economy, polls show, while Republicans are hitting him on it at every turn on the campaign trail.
"There's been this unprecedented gap between what the data shows us is going on in the economy and what people think is going on in the economy," Heidi Shierholz, president of the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute, told ABC News.
Improving economic picture
Inflation has dropped for 11 straight months, from its peak of 9.1% in June of last year to 4.0% in May. Unemployment stands at 3.7%, which is a near 50-year low, and 13 million jobs have been added since Biden took office.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last weekpraised the resiliencyof the U.S. economy, and said while a recession is still possible it's not the most likely case.
"Over the last year, things have turned out a lot better than a lot of economists thought it would," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told ABC News.
The White House, in addition to touting the above economic indicators, is pushing three major pieces of legislation passed under Biden they say will reinvigorate America’s economy over the next decade: the Chips and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
Anew reportfrom the Treasury Department highlighted manufacturing construction spending has doubled since the end of 2021 and the passage of the bills.
"For the first time in a long time, there's enthusiasm about building high-tech factories in the United States," said Brad Setser, a former trade and Treasury official in the Biden and Obama administrations.
Despite the progress, Biden remains underwater with voters when it comes to the economy. Onerecent pollfrom ABC News and the Washington Post found Americans 54-36% said former President Donald Trump did a better job handling the economy when he was in office than Biden's done so far.
Why voters remain unconvinced
One major reason why voters may not be giving Biden credit, economists said, is that inflation is still uncomfortably high and wages have only just started to keep up with price hikes. Powell said last week the target inflation rate of 2% is not expected to be reached until 2025, and more interest rate hikes could be in store to bring that data point down.
"It's painfully high," Zandi said of inflation. "It's moderating but still people are having to shell out more of their income to maintain their purchasing power."
Political observers also noted bad economic news, such as when gas prices rose to over $5 a gallon or inflation reached a 40-year high, is often more salient in the news and to voters than good economic news.
Republicans have been united in bashing Biden on that front, accusing him of stoking inflation with large spending packages and hurting companies through "woke" policies.
So far, Democrats have produced a weaker counterpunch, said Dean Baker, the co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
"The Democrats have been much less effective in focusing on a message and getting everyone to repeat it," Baker told ABC News. "For better or worse, Republicans largely do that. So I think Biden has an uphill battle, but I think he does have a very good story to sell."
Is the 'Bidenomics' pitch a gamble?
Biden will continue to talk economy on Friday when he announces new actions to lower health care costs and fight junk fees.
The messaging push, however, isn't without risk.
One of the most important questions moving forward, according to political scientist John Sides, is whether inflation continues to cool and real wages grow without economic contraction.
"If those economic trends continue, I would expect news coverage of the economy to become more positive and I would expect consumer confidence to increase," Sides told ABC News. "I would expect Biden's approval rating to rise as well. That would make his reelection more likely, even if his approval rating isn't 'high' in absolute terms. It would also become more difficult for his opponent to center a campaign on economic fundamentals."
But should the economy worsen, Sides said Biden should "certainly focus on a different issue."
"The moment to make that decision would be in the first few months of 2024," Sides said. "Election-year trends in the economy are the most important to voters, so what happens in 2024 will be crucial for Biden's strategy and his reelection prospects."
