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俄乌战争如何结束,对美国政治和普京的弱点的想法

2023-07-10 09:45 -ABC  -  136721

乌克兰基辅-在一个美国广播公司新闻广泛的新采访乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)在首都重申,他“永远不会”同意向俄罗斯侵略者割让任何领土,包括非法吞并的克里米亚半岛——但他承认,这场500天的战争还有另一种可能的结局。

在周日播出的“本周”节目中,泽伦斯基与美国广播公司新闻部首席全球事务记者玛莎·拉达茨坐下来进行了交谈,并没有提出异议华盛顿邮报报道乌克兰官员在最近前往基辅的途中告诉中情局局长威廉·伯恩斯,新一轮反攻的目标是逼近克里米亚边界,然后迫使俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京加入谈判。

当Raddatz问及这是否“可行”时,Zelenskyy说,“嗯,这是绝对明确的,符合逻辑的说法,当乌克兰将到达与临时占领的乌克兰半岛克里米亚的行政边界时,很可能普京将被迫寻求与文明世界对话,这与全面入侵前不同,因为他将被削弱。”

泽伦斯基、他的高级顾问安德烈·耶尔马克(Andriy Yermak)和乌克兰一些最高级的将军与拉达茨进行了交谈,以解决入侵中的紧迫问题,这场入侵始于2022年2月。他们讨论了谈判的前景,瓦格纳的雇佣军兵变和正在进行的反攻,以及其他话题。

泽伦斯基还强调了美国继续支持乌克兰的价值,尽管他认为美国政界在冲突的关键时刻减少对乌克兰的援助是“危险的信号”。

保护...两党支持

乔·拜登总统公开告诉泽伦斯基,他将支持乌克兰“只要需要”,并在上周承诺提供更多援助,包括发送有争议的集束弹药.

前副总统迈克·彭斯6月29日访问基辅此外,他还表达了对乌克兰的坚定支持,这一举动使他与共和党总统候选人提名的一些竞争对手区分开来,而共和党内的一些人则质疑对乌克兰的持续军事和财政承诺的范围。

“你一点都不担心即将到来的总统选举继续援助吗?”拉达茨问泽伦斯基。

“这是一个内部的国内政策问题。这要由美国人来决定,我不想干涉,”泽伦斯基说。“但对我们来说,保持乌克兰两党的支持很重要...我们知道有一些来自特定政客的危险信号美国关于减少对乌克兰援助的声明。"

泽伦斯基还淡化了前总统唐纳德·特朗普的说法,特朗普一再表示他将在24小时内结束战争。

“结束战争的唯一愿望是美好的,”泽伦斯基说。“但这种愿望应该是基于某种现实生活的体验。好吧,看起来唐纳德·特朗普已经有过一次这样的24小时了。我们在打仗,不是一场全面战争,但我们在打仗,我想他有时间可以支配,但他肯定有其他优先事项。”

泽伦斯基说:“如果我们谈论以乌克兰为代价结束战争,换句话说,让我们放弃我们的领土,那么,我认为拜登可以用这种方式在五分钟内结束战争。”“但我们不会同意。”

乌克兰总统对任何怀疑继续援助并希望专注于国内问题的美国人说:

“我欣赏那些说你已经做得够多的人。相信我,无论如何,我很感激你的帮助。说到“够了”这个词,我们乌克兰人并不以胃口过大而闻名。我们的胜利对我们来说已经足够了。”

反攻

西方武器弹药的供应对乌克兰在东部发起的最新反攻至关重要。两名高级将领告诉美国广播公司新闻,虽然进展缓慢,但随着乌克兰部队沿着绵延数千英里的前线地区探索潜在的薄弱环节,行动“将按计划进行”。

五角大楼最高政策官员科林·卡尔(Colin Kahl)周五表示,反攻“比我们希望的要慢”,部分原因是“俄罗斯人在挖得更深方面可能比我们完全理解的更成功。”

Zelenskyy的评估与Kahl的没有不同,尽管他坚持认为乌克兰已经让俄罗斯处于守势,而乌克兰军队尚未完全部署。

他说,他觉得没有“压力”来更快地看到成功,据报道,一些西方官员对反攻的缓慢步伐感到沮丧。在去年的一次乌克兰行动中,他们迅速超越俄罗斯,夺回了大片领土。

“今天,主动权在我们这边,”泽伦斯基告诉拉达茨。“我们正在前进,尽管没有(我们希望的)那么快。但我们正在前进。”

英国国防部每天都提供关于战争状态的情报更新,报告称乌克兰在关键城市巴赫穆特取得了“稳步进展”,这是俄罗斯在冬季攻势中为数不多的象征性胜利之一,这场攻势的代价是数万人伤亡。

当被问及是否有信心夺回这座城市时,正在指挥东部战斗的乌克兰地面部队指挥官Oleksandr Syrskyi将军告诉Raddatz:“是的,当然。我确定。”

PHOTO: ABC News' Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz interviews Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

美国广播公司新闻首席全球事务记者玛莎·拉达茨在基辅采访乌克兰总统沃洛德梅尔·泽伦斯基。

塞维多夫·鲍伊科/ABC新闻

据报道,南方的人员和西方军事装备损失惨重,但泽伦斯基和他的将军们在评估中一致认为,在反攻中谈论战场上的胜利还为时过早。

上周,拜登政府有争议地批准向乌克兰运送集束弹药,这种爆炸物因其对平民造成滥杀滥伤的能力而被约120个国家禁止,但一种关键武器仍在乌克兰的愿望清单上:F-16战斗机。

当被Raddatz问及集束弹药和F-16时,总统办公室主任、泽伦斯基的高级顾问之一安德烈·耶尔马克(Andriy Yermak)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News),乌克兰可以在没有战斗机的情况下取得成功,但代价是更多的生命。

“你知道,我们只问这些非常重要的事情,”他说。“我们展示了结果,我们如何使用这种设备,我们如何使用这些武器。当然,现在我们需要[他们]来赢得这场战争。”

拜登政府发言人约翰·柯比(John Kirby)周日在美国广播公司(ABC)的“本周”(This Week)节目中表示,“我们将努力尽快让这些飞机抵达乌克兰。”但是“你必须训练飞行员。...让这些飞行员做好准备需要一点时间,”他说。

关于核恐惧,普京和瓦格纳起义

从克里姆林宫的武力威胁到对俄罗斯控制的扎波罗热核电站安全的担忧,随着战斗的持续,核武器的幽灵一次又一次地出现。

白俄罗斯总统亚历山大·卢卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)上周证实,预计将从俄罗斯转移的大部分战术核武器已经交付给与乌克兰相邻的白俄罗斯,并将在今年年底前全部部署到位。

泽伦斯基告诉拉达茨,他不相信普京会诉诸使用核武器——尽管他警告说,乌克兰情报部门相信俄罗斯可能已经开采了Zaporizhzhia核电站这是欧洲规模最大的一次爆炸,旨在阻止乌克兰战场的推进。

联合国国际原子能机构表示,他们没有看到支持乌克兰说法的证据,但他们也要求更透明地进入该设施。

“现场还有其他爆炸物吗?是的,”泽伦斯基说。“他们目前能看到炸药吗?没有。有足够多的人...不偏不倚地对该地区受地雷污染的程度做出任何结论?没有。”

这次采访正值一些人猜测白俄罗斯可能成为乌克兰北部边境另一次袭击的中转站。在与普京结盟的瓦格纳雇佣军集团的叛乱流产后,瓦格纳的部队被告知与俄罗斯军方签署合同,回到他们的家人身边,或者接受卢卡申科的提议前往白俄罗斯,卫星图像显示,那里已经建立了潜在的基地。

但泽伦斯基说,他相信瓦格纳的部队不会从北方进攻,并认为瓦格纳的领导人叶夫根尼·普里戈津的动机是试图提高他在俄罗斯境内的地位。

“这是我的想法,基于情报...他已经成为一个政治人物,”泽伦斯基继续说道。“对我来说,这一定是他的首要目标。他为什么停下来?嗯,我也不确定。”

瓦格纳的部队推进到离莫斯科仅120英里的地方,几乎没有遇到抵抗,就在6月下旬的短短几个小时内放弃了兵变。

Zelenskyy说Prigozhin的反抗暴露了普京领导的弱点。(Prigozhin声称向莫斯科的游行是为了保护他的战士免受“不公正”的待遇,而不是试图发动政变。)

“他们决定自己停下来,”泽伦斯基说。“普京在俄罗斯境内没有军事力量,他的平民没有受到保护。”

“有迹象表明,俄罗斯可能会发生另一场兵变,一场革命,”他补充道。"不仅如此,还有很多人可能会支持这样的兵变."

与此同时,西尔斯基将军告诉ABC新闻,瓦格纳在乌克兰的实际解散不会对战场产生决定性影响。“我认为瓦格纳的历史已经结束了,”他说。

安全保障和乌克兰在欧洲的地位

泽伦斯基描述道即将在立陶宛维尔纽斯举行的北约峰会他和其他西方盟友呼吁让乌克兰加入北约,这是“非常重要的”。

然而,他没有证实他是否会出席,他的首席顾问告诉美国广播公司新闻,泽伦斯基“仍在考虑这件事”。叶尔马克说,反对乌克兰加入北约是基于他所说的对俄罗斯作为理性行为者的错误看法,以及冲突升级的风险。

“不幸的是,有些国家并不真正了解当前的俄罗斯。它不是普希金,柴可夫斯基,俄罗斯芭蕾舞团,世界上最强的军队之一的国家。这是恐怖分子的国家,”他说。“如果我听到一些关于升级的对话,对我们乌克兰人来说,这听起来有点奇怪。我们还需要什么样的升级?我认为是时候做出历史性的决定了。”

然而,拜登在周六发布的CNN采访片段中表示,乌克兰“还没有准备好”加入北约。

拜登说:“我不认为北约内部在是否让乌克兰加入北约大家庭的问题上存在一致意见,现在,在这个时刻,在一场战争中。”。

白宫发言人柯比(Kirby)周日在“本周”节目中表示,“北约最终将成为乌克兰的未来”——在战争和一系列政治和经济改革之后。

以及未来的北约和欧盟成员资格,耶尔马克和泽伦斯基都表示,最重要的是,乌克兰正在寻求具体的安全保障,以确保国家的领土完整和有意义的和平,这在过去仅靠外交是无法实现的。

泽伦斯基说:“我们早就看到了这一点。“(自2014年以来,在乌克兰东部)我们经历了某种冻结的冲突,最终导致了全面入侵和彻底摧毁乌克兰和乌克兰所有东西的愿望。”

他对拉达茨说:“随着正义与和平的到来,随着我们重获领土完整,战争将会结束。”。“为什么?因为战争激烈阶段的结束和冲突的冻结并不意味着战争的结束。”

泽伦斯基还乐观地谈到了他的国家的未来——无论流血何时结束。

“乌克兰已经在世界上为自己赢得了一席之地。我认为这是事实,”他说。“我们现在是一个受到尊重的国家,一个真正为人类价值、人权、自由和民主而战的国家。”

Zelenskyy to ABC: How Russia-Ukraine war could end, thoughts on US politics and Putin's weakness

KYIV, Ukraine --In awide-ranging new interview with ABC Newsfrom his country's capital, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that he would "never" agree to cede any territory to Russian invaders, including the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula -- but he acknowledged another possible end to the 500-day war.

In a sit-down with ABC News' Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz that aired Sunday on "This Week," Zelenskyy did not disputeWashington Post reportingthat Ukrainian officials told CIA Director William Burns on a recent trip to Kyiv that the aim of a new counteroffensive is to approach the Crimean boundary and then force Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiations.

Asked by Raddatz if that was "feasible," Zelenskyy said, "Well, it is absolutely clear, logical rhetoric that at that moment when Ukraine will reach the administrative border with a temporarily occupied Ukrainian peninsula, Crimea, it's very likely that Putin will be forced to seek dialogue with the civilized world, unlike how it was before the full-scale invasion, because he will be weakened."

Zelenskyy, his top adviser, Andriy Yermak, and some of Ukraine's most senior generals spoke with Raddatz to address pressing questions in the invasion, which began in February 2022. They discussed the prospect of negotiations, the Wagner mercenary mutiny and the ongoing counteroffensive, among other topics.

Zelenskyy also weighed in on the value of America's continued support for his country despite what he called "dangerous signals" in U.S. politics about reducing aid for Ukraine at a critical time in the conflict.

'Preserve ... bipartisan support'

President Joe Biden has told Zelenskyy in public that he will back Ukraine "for as long as it takes" and last week pledged more aid, includingsending controversial cluster munitions.

Former Vice President Mike Pencevisited Kyiv on June 29and, in a move which separated himself from some of his fellow contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, expressed his unwavering support for Ukraine as well, while some others in the GOP have questioned the scope of the sustained military and financial commitment to Ukraine.

"Are you at all concerned about theupcoming presidential electionand continued aid?" Raddatz asked Zelenskyy.

"It's an internal, domestic policy issue. It's up for Americans to decide, and I would hate to interfere," Zelenskyy said. "But it is important for us to preserve the bipartisan support of Ukraine ... We understand that there are somedangerous signals coming from particular politiciansof the U.S. regarding the reduc[tion] of assistance for Ukraine."

Zelenskyy also played down claims made by former President Donald Trump, who has said repeatedly that he would end the war within 24 hours.

"The sole desire to bring the war to an end is beautiful," Zelenskyy said. "But this desire should be based on some real-life experience. Well, it looks as if Donald Trump had already these 24 hours once in his time. We were at war, not a full-scale war, but we were at war and as I assume he had that time at his disposal, but he must have had some other priorities."

"If we are talking about ending the war at the cost of Ukraine, in other words to make us give up our territories, well, I think in this way Biden could have brought it to an end even in five minutes," Zelenskyy said. "But we would not agree."

Ukraine's president had this to say to any Americans who were skeptical of continued aid and want to focus on domestic issues instead:

"I appreciate those who say that you've done enough. Trust me, no matter what, I appreciate help. When it comes to the word 'enough,' well, we Ukrainians are not people known for excessive appetites. Our victory is enough for us."

The counteroffensive

The supply of Western weapons and munitions has been crucial to Ukraine's latest, budding counteroffensive waged in the east. Two top generals told ABC News that while progress has been slow, the operation is "going to plan" as Ukrainian forces probe areas along the front line, which stretches thousands of miles, for potential weak spots.

Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy official, said on Friday that the counteroffensive was going "slower than we'd hoped," in part because "the Russians probably were more successful in digging in more deeply than perhaps was fully appreciated."

Zelenskyy's assessment did not differ from Kahl's, though he maintains Ukraine has put the Russians on the defensive while Ukrainian forces have not yet deployed in full.

He said he feels no "pressure at all" to see success more quickly, with some Western officials reportedly frustrated with the slow pace of the counteroffensive. A previous Ukrainian operation, last year, saw them quickly overtake Russia and reclaim large swaths of territory.

"Today, the initiative is on our side," Zelenskyy told Raddatz. "We are advancing, albeit not as fast [as we would like]. But we are advancing."

The U.K.'s Ministry of Defense, which has provided daily intelligence updates on the state of the war, reported that Ukraine had made "steady gains" in the key city of Bakhmut -- one of the few symbolic victories for Russia in their winter offensive which came at the cost of tens of thousands of killed and wounded.

Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces who is overseeing the battle in the east, when asked if he was confident of retaking the city, told Raddatz: "Yes, of course. I'm sure."

Heavy losses of both personnel and Western military equipment have been reported in the south, but Zelenskyy and his generals shared in their assessment that it was too early in the counteroffensive to talk about battlefield successes.

Last week the Biden administration controversially approved the delivery of cluster munitions to Ukraine -- explosives that some 120 countries have banned for their capacity to do indiscriminate damage to civilians -- but one key weapon remains on Ukraine's wish list: F-16 fighter jets.

Asked about both cluster munitions and F-16s by Raddatz, Andriy Yermak, the head of the presidential office and one of Zelenskyy's top advisers, told ABC News that Ukraine could succeed without the jets but at the cost of more lives.

"You know, we ask only these things which are very important," he said. "We showed the results, how we use this equipment, how we use these weapons. And of course, now we need [them] to win this war."

Biden administration spokesman John Kirby, appearing Sunday on ABC's "This Week," said, "We're going to work to get those jets to Ukraine just as quickly as possible." But "you got to get the pilots trained. ... It's going to take a little time to get these pilots ready to go," he said.

On nuclear fears, Putin and the Wagner rebellion

From the Kremlin's saber-rattling to fears around the safety of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the specter of nuclear weapons has cropped up time and time again as the fighting drags on.

Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, confirmed last week that a majority of tactical nuclear weapons expected to be transferred from Russia had already been delivered to his country, which neighbors Ukraine, and that all would be deployed there by the end of the year.

Zelenskyy told Raddatz that he did not believe Putin would resort to the use of nuclear weapons -- though he did warn that Ukrainian intelligence believes Russiacould have mined the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, in preparation of a staged explosion to halt Ukrainian battlefield advances.

The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency has said they have not seen evidence to back up Ukraine's claims but they have also demanded more transparent access to the facility.

"Are other explosives on the site? Yes," Zelenskyy said. "Can they see explosives currently? No. Are there enough people who are ... unbiased to make any conclusions with regard to how much of the site is contaminated with mines? No."

The interview comes amid some speculation that Belarus could become a staging post for another attack from Ukraine's northern border. In the aftermath of an aborted rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group, that was allied with Putin, Wagner troops were told to sign contracts with the Russian military, return to their families or accept Lukashenko's offer to go to Belarus, where satellite imagery has revealed that potential bases have been constructed.

But Zelenskyy said he is confident Wagner troops will not attack from the north and argued that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner leader, was motivated by trying to improve his standing inside Russia.

"That's what I think, based on intelligence ... he has become a political figure," Zelenskyy continued. "And this, to me, must have been his primary objective. Why he stopped? Well, I don't know for sure."

Wagner forces advanced to just 120 miles from Moscow, facing little resistance before abandoning their mutiny over the span of mere hours in late June.

Zelenskyy said Prigozhin's revolt had revealed a weakness in Putin's leadership. (Prigozhin has claimed the march to Moscow was about protecting his fighters from "injustice" rather than trying to mount a coup.)

"They decided to stop themselves," Zelenskyy said. "Putin doesn't have military force inside Russia, and his civilian population is not protected."

"There is a signal that there might be another mutiny in Russia, a revolution," he added. "More than that, there are many people who might support such a mutiny."

Gen. Syrskyi, meanwhile, told ABC News that Wagner's effective dissolution in Ukraine would not have a decisive impact on the battlefield. "I think the history of Wagner is closed," he said.

Security guarantees and Ukraine's place in Europe

Zelenskyy describedthe upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, as "very important," as he and other Western allies have stepped up calls demanding NATO membership for Ukraine.

However, he did not confirm whether he would attend, and his chief adviser told ABC News that Zelenskyy is "still thinking about it." Opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership, Yermak said, was based on what he described as misguided views about Russia as a rational actor and the risk of escalating the conflict.

"Some countries unfortunately, don't really understand the current Russia. It's not the country of Pushkin, Tchaikovsky, Russian ballet, one of the strongest armies in the world. It's the country [of] terrorists," he said. "If I listen to some conversation about escalations, for us Ukrainians, it's sounds a little bit strange. What more escalations [do] we need? I think it's time to make historical decisions."

Biden, however, said that Ukraine was "not ready" for NATO membership in clip of an interview with CNN released on Saturday.

"I don't think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war," Biden said.

Kirby, the White House spokesperson, said Sunday on "This Week" that "NATO is eventually going to be in Ukraine's future" -- after the war and after a series of political and economic reforms.

As well as future NATO and European Union membership, both Yermak and Zelenskyy said that above all, Ukraine was looking for concrete security guarantees to secure the country's territorial integrity and a meaningful peace, something not achieved by diplomacy alone in the past.

"We've seen that earlier," Zelenskyy said. "We had some kind of a frozen conflict [since 2014, in eastern Ukraine], and it eventually led to the full-scale invasion and the desire completely to destroy Ukraine and everything that is Ukrainian."

"The war is to be over with justice and peace and with us regaining our territorial integrity," he told Raddatz. "Why? Because the end of the hot stage of the war and freezing the conflict would not mean the end of the war."

Zelenskyy also spoke optimistically about his country's future -- whenever the bloodshed ends.

"Ukraine has already got a place in the world for itself. I consider that as a fact," he said. "We're now a country that is respected, a country that is really fighting for human values, for human rights, for freedom, for democracy."

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