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拜登团队在选举日前一年淡化了糟糕的民调数字,并有更多的竞选收获

2023-11-06 09:12 -ABC  -  322597

而在佛罗里达州的一个主要共和党活动中看到嘘声和欢呼声,前总统唐纳德·特朗普他的候选资格面临越来越多的法律挑战因为第14修正案——他完全拒绝这一论点——特朗普的竞争对手乔·拜登试图淡化一些尤其是糟糕的新民调数字.

以下是过去一周2024年主要活动更新的回顾。

佛罗里达自由峰会上的嘘声和欢呼声

周六,共和党总统候选人登上了在基西米举行的年度佛罗里达自由峰会的舞台。该活动由州共和党主办,由一系列官员和保守派人士以及2024年竞选中的一些大腕组成。

共和党初选中最反特朗普的候选人没有回避在这位前总统的家乡谴责他。前阿肯色州州长阿萨·哈钦森和前新泽西州州长克里斯·克里斯蒂都是遭到了刺耳的“嘘声”他们呼吁共和党要有新的领导。

哈钦森-也被一名与会者喊着“回家”-预测特朗普很可能在2010年被判重罪四个刑事案件之一引用他自己作为联邦检察官的经历。

特朗普否认所有不法行为,并辩称无罪。他驳斥了克里斯蒂和哈钦森等人的批评,比如他称克里斯蒂为“失败的”候选人。

克里斯蒂似乎很喜欢在一定程度上围绕反特朗普的信息建立自己的竞选活动,当他们在佛罗里达州涌向他时,他邀请了“嘘声”,并指出“这就像在家里一样”。他继续喊着“失败者”和“叛徒”,严厉地告诉观众,这种行为“不会解决我们在这个国家面临的一个问题,也不会让这个国家变得更好。”

“你可以尽情地为此大喊大叫,”他说。“但这改变不了事实,事实正在到来。”

另一名候选人、佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)表示,他将成为共和党的下一任旗手,吹捧该州的保守派如何赢得了一系列选举,并自他上任以来监督了重大政策转变。这一次,人群中传来了欢呼声。

德桑蒂斯说:“你想想发生了什么,我认为在共和党的现代史上,没有任何地方比过去五年在佛罗里达州发生的事情更相似。”

前总统特朗普在自己的言论中试图攻击德桑蒂斯,但面对的是不太容易接受的观众。在称赞了多名共和党州长后,除了德桑蒂斯,人群开始高呼,“佛罗里达州,佛罗里达州”,让特朗普站在那里傻笑。

尽管如此,对特朗普的热情支持并没有消失。MAGA国旗,钱包和贴纸充分展示。

PHOTO: Split image featuring Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump looking on during a campaign rally on Nov. 02, 2023 in Houston, Texas; and President Joe Biden delivering remarks in Northfield, Minn., on Nov. 1, 2023.

2023年11月2日,在德克萨斯州休斯顿的Trendsetter Engineering Inc .举行的竞选集会上,共和党总统候选人前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)正在观看分裂图像;还有乔·拜登·德立夫总统

新的民调显示,拜登和特朗普都有重大的支持率问题

一项新的调查显示,距离2024年总统大选还有一年时间,竞选中的领先候选人——拜登总统和特朗普——却不受美国人的欢迎ABC新闻/益普索民意调查显示。

只有33%的美国人对拜登有好感,对特朗普有好感的人更少,只有29%。出口民调显示,拜登在黑人(49%)和拉美裔美国人(33%)中的支持率也很低,这可能是民主党人相当担忧的一个问题,因为这些群体在2020年压倒性地支持他。

同样的,大多数美国人(76%)认为国家正走向错误的方向。美国人更有可能相信共和党人会在他们确定的首要问题上做得更好:经济和通货膨胀。

这些数字突显了迄今为止整个2024年竞选中的一个不同寻常的动态:尽管拜登和特朗普在初选中继续领先,但其他调查显示,公众似乎对他们两人都不满意,也不喜欢重赛的可能性。

另外,一个新的纽约Tmes/锡耶纳学院民意调查这项对关键战场州注册选民的调查发现,在拜登和特朗普之间的假设对决中,前总统在大多数情况下都处于领先地位。

特朗普在亚利桑那州、密歇根州、内华达州和宾夕法尼亚州的民调理论竞赛中击败拜登,拜登以微弱优势拿下威斯康星州。拜登在2020年赢得了所有五个州。

摇摆州的注册选民还被问及,如果出现另一位民主党提名人,比如一位无名的普通候选人或像副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯这样的人,他们将如何投票——这两个选项的投票率都高于拜登。

拜登的竞选团队在一份声明中表示,他们不会对新的民调“感到担忧”,指出民主党在2022年中期选举中意外成功,当时拜登也不受欢迎,以及2011年前总统奥巴马在2012年连任前的不利民调。

拜登竞选发言人凯文·穆尼奥斯在一份声明中说:“一年多后的预测往往在一年后看起来有点不同。”

阻止特朗普参选的第14修正案挑战正在推进

上周,听证会在科罗拉多州和明尼苏达州因为选民团体试图阻止特朗普参加他们州的投票,认为第14修正案的第3部分因为1月6日宪法禁止他任职

这一理论的支持者认为,这一理论适用于特朗普,因为他在2020年大选失败后的行为,但试图扭转结果,包括在2021年1月6日早上。此前针对其他共和党人的此类努力都以失败告终,除了在新墨西哥,一名因1月6日擅闯美国国会大厦而被定罪的当地专员被解职。

特朗普断然拒绝了第14修正案,他的律师称其为“反民主”。

丹佛的一名地区法官就此事听取了五天的证词,而在明尼苏达州,州最高法院周四听取了辩论。

预计本月科罗拉多州将做出裁决。挑战特朗普背后的主要律师之一最近告诉美国广播公司新闻,他预计美国最高法院将不得不进行权衡。

迪安·菲利普斯出发了

在...之后发起他的远景民主党总统竞选10月下旬,明尼苏达州众议员迪恩·菲利普斯(Dean Phillips)已经全力投入竞选。

他对拜登的初选受到了其他一些民主党人的批评他们认为这是准备与特朗普竞选的不必要的——甚至可能是有害的——障碍。

他还驳斥了这样的攻击,即他早期专注于新罕布什尔州,无视民主党人如何试图在初选中专注于南卡罗来纳州和密歇根州,他们认为这些州更能代表他们的选民。

菲利普斯是第三任议员,曾是众议院民主党领导层的成员,也是一名富有的商人,他说他担心总统的年龄和民主党的未来。他说,他几个月来一直敦促民主党人挑战拜登,现在他自己正在这样做。

但这并不意味着他会永远留在这里。“我要说清楚——如果我的竞选在3月5日之后不可行,我会结束竞选,支持可能的提名人——拜登或其他人,”他周六在X上写道。“然后我会像现在一样大力支持他们。我不是来玩游戏的。”

“我大声说出了安静的部分。拜登/哈里斯无法对抗特朗普,”菲利普斯周末晚些时候在X上发帖称。“我会打败特朗普。”

Biden team plays down poor poll numbers 1 year before Election Day, and more campaign takeaways

While a major Republican event down in Floridasaw boos and cheers, former President Donald Trumpfaced mounting legal challenges to his candidacybecause of the 14th Amendment -- an argument he totally rejects -- and Trump's rival Joe Biden sought to play down somenotably poor new poll numbers.

Here's a recap of major 2024 campaign updates over the last week.

'Boos' and cheers at the Florida Freedom Summit

On Saturday, Republican presidential hopefuls took the stage at the annual Florida Freedom Summit in Kissimmee. Hosted by the state GOP, the event featured a lineup of officials and conservative voices as well as some of the biggest names in the 2024 race.

The GOP primary's most anti-Trump candidates didn't shy away from condemning the former president in his home state. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were bothmet with raucous "boos"from the audience as they called for new leadership in the Republican Party.

Hutchinson -- who was also shouted at to "go home" by one attendee -- predicted that Trump is likely to be convicted of a felony inone of four criminal cases, citing his own experience as a federal prosecutor.

Trump has denied all wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty. He has dismissed criticism from the likes of Christie and Hutchinson, as when he's called Christie a "failed" candidate.

Christie, who has seemingly relished building his campaign in part around an anti-Trump message, invited the "boos" as they poured over him in Florida, noting that "it feels like home." He continued through shouts of "loser" and "traitor," sternly telling the audience that such behavior "will not solve one problem we face in this country and will not make this country better."

"You can yell and boo about it as much as you'd like," he said. "But it doesn't change the truth, and the truth is coming."

Another candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, made his case to be the next standard-bearer of the GOP, touting how conservatives in the state have won a slew of elections and overseen major policy shifts since he's been in office. This time, cheers came from the crowd.

"You think of what's happened, and I don't think that there's a parallel anywhere in the modern history of the Republican Party than what's happened in the state of Florida over these last five years," DeSantis said.

Former President Trump, in his own remarks, sought to attack DeSantis but faced a less receptive audience. After praising multiple Republican governors, except DeSantis, the crowd began to chant, "Florida, Florida," leaving Trump to stand there and smirk.

Still, though, fervent support for Trump was not missing. MAGA flags, purses and stickers were on full display.

Both Biden and Trump have major favorability issues, new poll shows

A year out from the 2024 presidential election and the race's leading candidates -- President Biden and Trump -- are nonetheless not viewed favorably by Americans, a newABC News/Ipsos pollshows.

Only 33% of Americans view Biden favorably, and even less, 29%, view Trump favorably. Biden's favorability among Black (49%) and Hispanic (33%) Americans is also low, which likely comes as a considerable concern for Democrats since these groups overwhelmingly supported him in 2020, according to exit polling.

Similarly,a large majority of Americans(76%) believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. And Americans are more likely to trust Republicans to do a better job on the top issues they identified: the economy and inflation.

Those numbers underline what has been an unusual dynamic throughout the 2024 race so far: While Biden and Trump continue to lead in primary polls, other surveys show the general public is seemingly unhappy with them both -- and the potential for a rematch.

Separately, and similarly likely to provoke alarm for Democrats, a newNew York Tmes/Siena College pollthat surveyed registered voters in key battleground states found that in hypothetical matchups between Biden and Trump, the former president comes out on top in most of them.

Trump edges out Biden in the poll's theoretical contest in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Biden taking Wisconsin by a slim margin. Biden won all five states in 2020.

Registered voters in the swing states were also asked how they would vote in the case of another Democratic nominee, such as an unnamed generic alternative or someone like Vice President Kamala Harris -- and both options polled better than Biden.

Biden's campaign said in a statement that they wouldn't be "fretting" about the new polls, pointing both to Democrats' unexpected success in the 2022 midterms, when Biden was also unpopular, and unfavorable polls in 2011 for former President Obama before he was reelected in 2012.

"Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later," Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said in a statement.

14th Amendment challenges to keep Trump off the ballot are moving ahead

Last week, hearings inColoradoandMinnesotawere held as groups of voters attempt to keep Trump off the ballot in their states,arguing that Section 3 of the 14th Amendmentof the Constitution prohibits him from holding office because of Jan. 6

Supporters of this theory argue it applies to Trump because of his conduct after he lost the 2020 election but sought to reverse the results, including on the morning of Jan. 6, 2021. Previous such efforts focused on other Republicans have failed, except in New Mexico, where a local commissioner convicted of trespassing at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 was booted from his office.

Trump has rejected the 14th Amendment outright and his attorneys have labeled it "anti-democratic."

A district judge in Denver heard five days of testimony about the matter while in Minnesota, the state Supreme Court heard arguments on Thursday.

A ruling in Colorado is expected this month. One of the main lawyers behind the challenge to Trump recently told ABC News that he expects the U.S. Supreme Court will have to weigh in.

Dean Phillips heads out on the trail

Afterlaunching his long shot Democratic presidential campaignin late October, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips has been out on the trail in full force.

His primary bid against Bidenhas been criticized by some other Democratswho see it as an unnecessary -- and possibly harmful -- obstacle to preparing to run against Trump.

He's also brushed off attacks that his early focus on New Hampshire disregards how Democrats are trying to pivot in their primary to focus on states like South Carolina and Michigan that they feel are more representative of their voters.

Phillips, a third-term lawmaker, former member of Democratic leadership in the House and a wealthy businessman in his own right, has said that he is concerned about the president's age and the future of the Democratic Party. He's said he had been urging Democrats to challenge Biden for months and is now doing it himself.

But that doesn't mean he'll stick around forever. "I'll be clear - if my campaign is not viable after March 5th, I'll wrap it up and endorse the likely nominee - Biden or otherwise," he wrote on X on Saturday, in part. "I will then campaign for them as vigorously as I'm campaigning now. I'm not here for games."

"I'm saying the quiet part out loud. Biden/Harris isn't viable against Trump," Phillips posted on X later in the weekend. "I will defeat Trump."

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上一篇:亚当·金辛格沉思道:“我很想和特德·克鲁兹竞选。”
下一篇:对特朗普候选人资格的第14修正案挑战可能会受到最高法院的约束

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