欢迎来到2023选举之夜!今天，至少37个州的投票已经开始，美国人已经在从州长职位到地方公投的所有问题上投票。538名分析师将整晚在这里为您带来全国各地比赛的实时更新和分析。
我们将密切跟踪今天一些最大的选举的结果，包括肯塔基州和密西西比州的州长选举;弗吉尼亚州、新泽西州和密西西比州的州立法选举;俄亥俄州关于是否将堕胎权纳入法律的投票问题;宾夕法尼亚州最高法院的一场竞赛;以及一些国会和州立法特别选举。
我们还将密切关注向下投票和地方竞争，如市长和学校董事会选举，我们将更深入地挖掘这些结果对民主党人、共和党人，当然还有2024年选举的意义。
更多新泽西的选票进来了
我在新泽西州关注的一场比赛是在第三立法区，共和党州参议员埃德·杜尔(Ed Durr)在击败强大的州参议院主席史蒂夫·斯威尼(Steve Sweeney)两年后再次竞选连任。杜尔曾是一名卡车司机，那年他几乎没有花一分钱，他的胜利动摇了该州的政治权力平衡。今年，他面临着来自前州议员约翰·布尔齐切利的激烈挑战。据《纽约时报》报道，在统计了一半多一点的预期选票后，布尔齐切利以62%对38%的选票领先杜尔。
贝希尔预计将在肯塔基州赢得连任
ABC新闻预测贝希尔将赢得肯塔基州州长的连任。在全国大选中，肯塔基州一直是可靠的共和党人，特朗普在2020年以近26个百分点的优势赢得了该州。但是贝希尔很受该州选民的欢迎，在筹款方面遥遥领先。投票率为53%对47 %,预计投票率为83%。肯塔基州是一个独特的案例，但这可能会给担心拜登支持率的民主党人在总统竞选季之前带来情绪上的提振。
弗吉尼亚民主党人准备保住州参议院
嗯，恰到好处纳撒尼尔:看起来民主党人拉塞尔·佩里可能在第31参议院选区比共和党人胡安·帕布罗·塞古拉占优势。大多数剩余的投票似乎是邮寄选票，根据来自弗吉尼亚公共接入项目的数据他们更有可能倾向于民主党，因为在偏好的投票方式上存在党派分歧在2020年后的世界里。加上民主党在共和党控制的第16区的表面优势，这足以让民主党在州参议院的40个席位中获得21个席位——如果结果保持不变的话。
更多关于弗吉尼亚参议院第16区的信息
杰弗里，你在信中写道你对弗吉尼亚立法选举的预测参议院第16区可能是民主党在州参议院最容易获得的机会。尽管该地区有一名共和党现任议员，但在2021年的州长竞选中，该地区投票支持民主党的比例为6%，在2022年的众议院竞选中为10%。对该党的真正考验将是赢得第21个席位。也许他们最好的赌注是华盛顿远郊的参议院第31区，他们目前在那里以51%对49%领先。
Gov. Andy Beshear projected to win Kentucky: Live election results and analysis
Welcome to election night 2023! Polls are open today in at least 37 states, and Americans have been casting their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. 538 analysts will be here throughout the evening to bring you live updates and analysis from races across the country.
We’ll be closely tracking returns in some of today’s biggest races, including governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi; state-legislative contests in Virginia, New Jersey and Mississippi; Ohio’s ballot question on whether to codify the right to abortion; a Supreme Court contest in Pennsylvania; and a handful of congressional and state-legislative special elections.
We’ll also be keeping an eye on down-ballot and local contests, like mayoral and school board elections, and we’ll be digging deeper on what these results mean — or don’t mean — for Democrats, Republicans and, of course, the 2024 election.
More New Jersey votes coming in
One race I'm watching in New Jersey is in the 3rd Legislative District, where Republican state Sen. Ed Durr is running for re-election two years after he pulled off the upset of the year by defeating powerful state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Durr, a former truck driver, spent barely any money that year and his win rocked the balance of political power in the state. This year, he's facing a spirited challenge from former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli. With a little more than half the expected votes counted, per the New York Times, Burzichelli leads Durr, 62 to 38 percent.
Beshear projected to win reelection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Beshear will win re-election as governor of Kentucky. In national elections Kentucky has been reliably Republican, and Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. But Beshear has been popular with the state's voters and way ahead in fundraising. The vote stands at 53 to 47 percent, with 83 percent of the expected vote in. Kentucky is a unique case, but this could give Democrats, worried about Biden's favorability numbers, an emotional boost ahead of the presidential campaign season.
Virginia Democrats positioned to hold onto state Senate
Well, right on cue Nathaniel: It seems Democrat Russet Perry probably has the upper hand on Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the 31st Senate District. Most of the remaining vote appears to be mail ballots, based ondata from the Virginia Public Access Project, which are more likely to be Democratic-leaning because of the partisan split in preferred voting methodin the post-2020 world. Along with the seeming Democratic edge in the GOP-held 16th District, this would be enough to give Democrats 21 of 40 seats in the state Senate — should results hold.
More on Virginia Senate District 16
Geoffrey, as you wrote inyour preview of the Virginia legislative races, Senate District 16 may have been Democrats’ easiest pickup opportunity in the state Senate. Although it had a GOP incumbent, the district voted for Democrats by 6 points in the 2021 governor’s race and 10 points in 2022 House races. The real test for the party will be winning that 21st seat. Perhaps their best bet is Senate District 31 in the D.C. exurbs, where they currently lead 51 percent to 49 percent.
