对于年轻选民来说，像堕胎这样的关键问题可能比谁在2024年的选票上更重要。民主党人担心总统乔·拜登可能会失去千禧一代和Z世代的支持对于年轻的政治活动家来说，政策问题而不是候选人占据了中心舞台，这可能是推动年轻人投票的最大因素之一。
正如俄亥俄州看到的那样，11月的选举提供了堕胎问题如何激励选民的预演异常高的投票率继基层组织围绕问题1，投票倡议将堕胎权纳入国家宪法。这包括像凯西·利索夫斯基这样的年轻人发起的激进主义浪潮，他是克里夫兰的一名大学三年级学生，志愿拉票支持这项措施。
Lisowski认为第一期会在上个月获胜，但她对胜利的幅度感到有点惊讶:57%对43%。“我对它获得通过感到非常兴奋，”她说。“我知道有一股很大的力量推动年轻选民出来投票，所以我非常乐观。...我与之交谈的每个人都对此非常非常有热情。”
年轻选民强烈支持俄亥俄州堕胎权利倡议，77%的人投票通过该倡议，根据投票后民意调查。这并不令人惊讶:民意调查有显示一致地更高的支持争取年轻选民，尤其是年轻女性的堕胎权。这种支持在2022年也产生了影响，当时许多人认为对堕胎权利的关注推动了民主党人的支持率中期结果好于预期尽管拜登的支持率很低。当被问及哪些问题影响了他们的投票时，堕胎是30岁以下选民的首选，根据爱迪生研究公司对全国选举的分析出口民调数据由信息中心提供塔夫茨大学关于公民学习和参与的研究。那些支持堕胎的人强烈倾向于民主党候选人。
CIRCLE分析的另一个有趣的发现是，30岁以下的选民中有59%表示拜登总统在2022年的投票中“不是一个因素”，这一比例高于其他任何年龄组。他们也最有可能说他的政策“对国家没有影响”虽然拜登没有出现在中期选举的选票上，但即使在总统选举年，对年轻选民来说，对他工作的支持或反对可能都不如他们关心的问题重要。
CIRCLE的副主任艾比·基萨说:“年轻人是否投票以及他们投谁的票，涉及到很多不同的因素，而不仅仅是谁是总统候选人。”。“我们可以以2022年为例;她说:“所有这些讨论都是关于年轻人和他们对拜登的不支持是否会影响他们是否投票给民主党人，我认为结果表明我们需要更加广泛地考虑是什么影响了人们。”。
这也不仅仅是堕胎。年轻选民更可能看到堕胎的权利与社会正义问题和保护其他个人自由有关，包括种族主义、性别歧视和性少数群体权利问题。另一个在阿克伦为堕胎倡议游说的大学生艾芙琳·克拉克就是如此。(她和Lisowski都是政治组织团体俄亥俄州学生联合会的志愿者，该组织致力于动员年轻人。)“政府不应该告诉你该做什么，”她说，在这个问题上，她从其他年轻选民那里得到了压倒性的回应，甚至来自那些在道德上反对堕胎的人。“几乎所有Z世代的人都厌倦了政府告诉他们该做什么。他们厌倦了一直掌权的老年人告诉他们在自己的生活中可以如何对待自己的身体。”
克拉克说，堕胎权是收回身体自主权的一个很好的例子。这种情绪也符合一个更广泛的趋势:自从去年多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织的裁决推翻了罗诉韦德案以来，美国人越来越担心个人权利受到威胁。A国民情绪调查在多布斯意见草案泄露后不久，APM研究实验室和麦考特尼民主研究所在2022年5月进行的一项调查发现，68%的成年人认为他们在未来十年将失去的自由多于他们将获得的自由。
年轻选民也可能受到以下问题的激励枪支管制和气候变化这两个问题也激发了近年来备受瞩目的青年激进主义。
“我们绝对已经看到…年轻人将不同的问题联系在一起，并看到不同问题之间的交集，”基萨说。“这是我认为对候选人和竞选活动非常重要的事情之一，不管是哪个党派，都应该思考和理解。年轻人不是单一议题的选民。”
这对2024年意味着什么?过去几个选举年投票率比平时高。尽管30岁以下的选民往往是任何一个选举年中投票率最低的，但他们的人数也一直高于以往类似的选举。因为千禧一代，他们中最年轻的都快30岁了，是如此庞大的一代人投票率的微小变化仍然会产生影响。
Lisowski和Clark都表示，他们的同龄人参与政治并热衷于保护公民权利，如果政党和候选人伸出援手并承诺保护这些权利，他们很可能会参加投票。
“我所有的朋友和我认识的每个人都非常关心这类问题:各种社会正义问题，不仅仅是堕胎，”Lisowski说。“我绝对认为这一代人，尤其是比我年轻的一代，有着超强的政治意识和政治参与度。”
上周公布的一项圈子调查显示发现年龄在18-34岁之间的选民中有57%表示他们极有可能投票，堕胎仍然是他们的五大问题。据统计，在上次总统选举中，该年龄组有近57%的人参加了投票对人口普查数据的分析.
这样的投票率可能会在2024年产生很大影响，这也是为什么像Lisowski和Clark这样的年轻、积极的选民正在努力确保他们的同龄人，他们知道他们关心这些利害攸关的问题，也参加投票。
Issues, not candidates, are motivating young voters
For young voters, key issues like abortion may matter more to their vote than who's at the top of the ticket in 2024. While Democrats worry that President Joe Bidenmight be losing support with millennials and Gen Z, policy questions, rather than candidates, have taken center stage for young political activists and could be one of the biggest factors driving young people to the polls.
The November election offered a preview of how the issue of abortion could motivate voters, as Ohio sawunusually high turnoutfollowing grassroots organizing around Issue 1, the ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights into the state's constitution. This included a wave of activism by young people like Abra Lisowski, a college junior in Cleveland who volunteered to canvass in support of the measure.
Lisowski thought Issue 1 would win last month, but she was a little surprised at how big the victory was: 57 percent to 43 percent. "I was super excited about the margin by which it was passed," she said. "I know there was a really big push for young voters, especially, to come out, so I was definitely optimistic. ... Everyone that I talked to about it was super, super passionate about it."
Young voters strongly favored the Ohio abortion rights initiative, with 77 percent voting to pass it,according to exit polling. That wasn't such a surprise:Pollshaveshownconsistentlyhigher supportfor abortion rights among young voters, especially young women. This support made a difference in 2022 as well, when many credited concern over abortion rights with boosting Democrats tobetter-than-expected midterm resultsdespite Biden's low approval ratings. When asked about which issues influenced their vote, abortion was the top choice for voters under 30,according to an analysis of Edison Research National Election Poolexit poll data by the Center for Information& Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE, at Tufts University. Those who supported access to abortion strongly preferred Democratic candidates.
Another interesting finding from the CIRCLE analysis was that 59 percent of voters under 30 said President Biden was "not a factor" in their vote in 2022, more than any other age group. They were also most likely to say his policies "made no difference on the country." While Biden wasn't on the ballot in the midterms, it's possible that even in a presidential election year, approval or disapproval of the job he's doing may not matter as much to young voters as the issues they care about.
"There are so many different things that are involved in whether or not a young person votes and who they're voting for, that don't solely come down to who is a presidential candidate," said Abby Kiesa, deputy director of CIRCLE. "We can look at 2022 as an example; there was all of this conversation about whether or not young people and their disapproval of Biden was going to affect whether or not they voted and [whether they would vote] for Democrats, and I think that the results show just how much broader we need to be thinking about what influences people," she said.
And it's not just abortion, either. Younger votersare more likely to see the right to abortionas connected to issues of social justice, and to protecting other personal liberties and freedoms, including issues of racism, sexism and LGBTQ rights. That was true of Aveline Clark, another college student who canvassed for the abortion initiative in Akron. (She and Lisowski both volunteered with the political organizing group the Ohio Student Association, which focuses on mobilizing young people.) "The government shouldn't be able to tell you what to do," was the overwhelming response she got from other young voters on the issue, she said, even from those morally opposed to abortion. "For pretty much all of Gen Z, they're tired of the government telling them what to do. They're tired of older people who have always been in power telling them what they can do with their own bodies in their own lives."
Abortion rights are a good example of reclaiming bodily autonomy, Clark said. This sentiment aligns with a broader trend too: increased worry among Americans that individual rights are endangered since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision overturned Roe v. Wade last year. AMood of the Nation Pollfrom APM Research Lab and the McCourtney Institute for Democracy conducted in May 2022, shortly after the Dobbs draft opinion was leaked, found that 68 percent of adults believed they would lose more liberties than they would gain over the next decade.
Young voters are also likely to be motivated by issues likegun controlandclimate change, two issues that have also inspired high-profile youth activism in recent years.
"We absolutely have been seeing … young people connecting different issues together and seeing the intersection between different issues," Kiesa said. "That's one of the things that I think is really important for candidates and campaigns, regardless of party, to be thinking about and understanding. Young people aren't one-issue voters."
What will that mean for 2024? The last few election yearshave seen higher turnout than normal. While voters under 30 often have the lowest voter turnout in any given election year, they've also been showing up in higher numbers than previous similar elections. And because millennials, the youngest of whom are in their late 20s,are such a large generation, small variations in turnout can still make an impact.
Lisowski and Clark both say their peers are engaged in politics and passionate about protecting civil rights, and are likely to turn out if parties and candidates reach out and promise to protect those rights.
"All of my friends and everyone I know really care strongly about these sorts of issues: social justice issues of all kinds, not just abortion," Lisowski said. "I definitely think this generation, and I'm sure even more so the people that are younger than I am, are super politically aware and politically engaged."
A CIRCLE survey released last weekfound that 57 percent of voters between the ages of 18-34 say they are extremely likely to vote, and abortion is still a top-five issue for them. That could match the nearly 57 percent of that age group who voted in the last presidential election, according toan analysis of Census data.
That level of turnout could make a big difference in 2024, and it's why young, engaged voters like Lisowski and Clark are working to make sure their peers, who they know care about the issues at stake, also show up to vote on them.
