随着2023年接近尾声，该国最强大的地方办事处之一即将开放。
周六，休斯顿的选民将决定美国第四大城市的下一任市长。这次选举在德克萨斯州之外没有得到多少媒体的关注，但它非常值得关注。这次选举不仅是进步派与中间派的分歧它定义了其他市长大人和国会竞选在近些年但是选民们也在选举一位强有力的政治家。
前哈里斯县法官埃德·埃米特(Ed Emmett)说，“市长管理着这个城市，就是这样。”。"我们有一个非常强大的政府，由市长主导。"
这一无党派立场的初选于11月举行，但没有候选人超过50%，这促使得票最多的两位候选人之间进行了决胜，这两位候选人都是民主党人:众议员希拉·李庚翔(Sheila Schmidt)，自1995年以来一直在国会代表休斯顿，以及州参议员约翰·惠特迈尔(John Whitmire)，自1973年以来一直在州议会任职。
两位候选人都强调了他们与各种利益相关者合作的经验，以向休斯敦人交付成果。但是李庚翔强调了她在国会的记录和与国家民主党的关系——这在一个投票给乔·拜登总统的城市是有意义的2020年从65%到33%。前国务卿希拉里·克林顿亲自为李庚翔竞选上周，前总统比尔·克林顿支持她。李庚翔还获得了即将离任的市长西尔威斯特·特纳、众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和前众议院议长南希·佩洛西的支持。
埃米特说:“这位国会女议员把自己描绘成一个坚定的民主党人，知道如何利用华盛顿的权力杠杆，把钱带回该地区，照顾她的选民，她非常引人注目。”。“她的全部注意力都集中在这一点上，集中在……坚如磐石的民主党基础上。”
埃米特补充说，惠特迈尔也是一名终身的民主党人，得到了民主党众议员西尔维亚·加西亚和州议会几位民主党成员的支持。但惠特迈尔显然是竞选中更为中间派的候选人，作为一名在共和党主导的德克萨斯州参议院工作的强硬派实用主义者。支持惠特迈尔的保护和服务政治行动委员会(Protect and Serve PAC)一直在反对李庚翔，将她与解散警察的运动联系在一起，包括发送邮件指责她与众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔(Ilhan Omar)合作。(就李庚翔而言，她在竞选中花了很多时间重申她为当地警察带来额外资金的记录，并计划动用联邦基金投资于打击犯罪的项目。)
惠特迈尔还拥有巨大的财务优势。李庚翔花了$341,000在10月29日至11月29日期间，他进入竞选的最后阶段，手头只有23.5万美元。与此同时，惠特迈尔报告说，在10月29日至11月29日期间，花费了近300万美元，而保护和拯救PAC在同一时期花费了超过50万美元。惠特迈尔还报告说，银行里有300万美元，这可能会在选举的最后一周发挥很大作用。
两位政治家在选举中任职的时间加起来超过了80年，两位候选人都有各自的负面新闻。对李庚翔来说，最大的挑战之一是克服关于她手下员工待遇不佳的新闻报道。《休斯顿纪事报》调查了Legistorm过去20年的记录，发现除去临时工，她的员工平均工作时间少于8个月德克萨斯州众议院成员中最高的离职率也是国会中离职率最高的。纪事报也调查了惠特米尔作为律师的工作并发现了这位州参议员“混淆公共和私人角色界限”的无数例子此外，他们在公共服务领域的长期经历也成为了市长竞选的素材。例如，惠特迈尔曾在1972年表示反对合法堕胎《纪事报》的深度报道.
德克萨斯州的政客们基本上同意惠特迈尔在选举日占据上风。他在初选中获得了43%的选票，而李庚翔只获得了36%的选票。和这场比赛唯一的公众投票由休斯顿大学赞助的SurveyUSA于11月13日至18日进行的一项调查发现，情况几乎没有变化:惠特迈尔在可能的选民中以42%对35%领先。
惠特迈尔的竞争优势很大程度上源于这样一个事实，尽管两位候选人都是民主党人，但选举不是民主党的初选。共和党人和无党派人士也将在12月9日投票。“李庚翔没有通往胜利的道路，”赫斯特报业集团的专栏作家克里斯·汤姆林森说。“惠特迈尔正在分散民主党的选票，他赢得了共和党的选票和大多数独立选民的选票。”
事实上，虽然李庚翔在民主党选民中以55%对25%的比例领先于SurveyUSA民调，但惠特迈尔在独立选民中以46%对26%的比例领先，而共和党人以68%对12%的比例支持惠特迈尔超过李庚翔。“他一直是一个保守的民主党人，”汤姆林森说惠特迈尔。"对他来说，作为一名保守的民主党人参选是一条稳操胜券的道路."
李庚翔真正的支持者似乎是黑人选民。根据SurveyUSA的民意调查，黑人选民以63%对15%的比例支持她而不是惠特米尔。与此同时，白人选民支持惠特迈尔的比例非常接近:63%对20%。
但是，尽管黑人(23%)和白人(24%)在人口中所占的比例相当休斯顿的人口这个城市的大多数人(45 %)是拉丁美洲人，正是这些选民可能将惠特迈尔推上首位。由SurveyUSA调查的西班牙裔选民支持惠特迈尔，反对李庚翔，43%对23%。
然而，公众对竞选的投票一直很少，从交叉表中得出全面的结论可能是一件令人担忧的事情。所以不能排除李庚翔意外获胜的可能性。她的胜利之路可能取决于低投票率的选举，在这场选举中，认识并支持这位女议员的黑人民主党选民比惠特迈尔的支持者更有动力投票。但是周二结束的早期投票，似乎没什么希望这意味着选举日的投票将是关键。支持李庚翔的休斯顿教师联合会主席杰基·安德森承认:“让人们去投票将是一个挑战。”。“我们一致认为，这场比赛将在地面上取得胜利。她的对手有几百万美元，已经在这场比赛上花了几百万美元。”
安德森说，挑战之一是提醒选民，即使他们已经在11月投票选举市长，他们也必须在决选中再次投票。
“我们很乐观，”安德森说。“只是，我们必须确保我们的选民投票。”
Who will win the last big election of 2023?
As 2023 comes to a close, one of the most powerful local offices in the country is up for grabs.
On Saturday, voters in Houston will decide the next mayor of the fourth-largest city in the country. The election hasn't gotten much media attention outside of Texas, but it's well worth paying attention to. Not only is the election the latest example of theprogressive-versus-centrist dividethat has defined othermajor mayoralandcongressional racesinrecent years, but voters are also electing a powerful politician.
"The mayor runs the city, period," said former Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. "We have a very strong form of government where the mayor dominates."
The primary election for this nonpartisan position took place in November, but no candidate topped 50 percent, prompting a runoff between the top two vote-getters, both of whom were Democrats: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who has represented Houston in Congress since 1995, and state Sen. John Whitmire, who's been in the state legislature since 1973.
Both candidates have emphasized their experience working with stakeholders of various, competing interests in order to deliver results to Houstonians. But Jackson Lee has played up her record in Congress and ties to national Democrats — which makes sense in a city that voted for President Joe Biden65 percent to 33 percent in 2020. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clintonpersonally campaigned for Jackson Leein Houston, and former President Bill Clinton endorsed her last week. Jackson Lee also has endorsements from outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
"The congresswoman has portrayed herself as a staunch Democrat who has known how to work the levers of power in Washington and bring money back to the area and take care of her constituents, and she's very visible," Emmett said. "And her whole focus has been on that, on … the rock-solid Democrat base."
That said, Whitmire is also a lifelong Democrat, Emmett added, with endorsements from Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia and several Democratic members of the state legislature. But Whitmire is clearly the more centrist candidate in the race, running as a tough-on-crime pragmatist who worked across the aisle in the GOP-dominated Texas Senate. Protect and Serve PAC, which supports Whitmire, has campaigned against Jackson Lee by tying her to the movement to defund the police, including sending mailers accusing her of working with Rep. Ilhan Omar. (Jackson Lee, for her part, has spent much of the campaign reiterating her record bringing additional funding to local police and plans totap into federal fundsto invest in anti-crime initiatives.)
Whitmire also has a massive financial advantage. Jackson Lee spent$341,000between Oct. 29 and Nov. 29 and entered the home stretch of the campaign with just $235,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Whitmire reported spending nearly $3 million between Oct. 29 and Nov. 29, and Protect and Save PAC has spent more than $500,000 in the same time period. Whitmire also reported having $3 million in the bank, which could go far in the last week of the election.
With two politicians who have spent, combined, more than 80 years in elected office, both candidates in the race have had their share of bad press. For Jackson Lee, one of the biggest challenges has been overcoming news stories about alleged poor treatment of her staff. The Houston Chronicle looked into Legistorm records spanning the last two decades and found that, excluding temporary workers, her staff tended to stick around for fewer than eight months on average, thehighest turnover rate among Texas House membersand among the highest turnover rate in Congress. The Chronicle also looked intoWhitmire's work as an attorneyand found numerous examples of the state senator "blurring lines between his public and private roles." And there are plenty of other instances of their long histories in public service becoming campaign fodder for the mayoral race. For example, Whitmire previously expressed opposition to legal abortion — in 1972, according to adeep dive by the Chronicle.
Texas politicos largely agree that Whitmire has the upper hand going into election day. He received 43 percent of the vote in the primary, while Jackson Lee got just 36 percent. And theonly public poll of the race, conducted Nov. 13-18 by SurveyUSA and sponsored by the University of Houston, found that little has changed: Whitmire led 42 percent to 35 percent among likely voters.
Much of Whitmire's competitive edge stems from the fact that, while both candidates are Democrats, the election isn't a Democratic primary. Republicans and independents will also be voting on Dec. 9. "Jackson Lee has got no path to victory," said Chris Tomlinson, a columnist for Hearst newspapers in Texas. "Whitmire is dividing the Democratic vote, and he's winning the Republican vote and most of the independent vote."
Indeed, while Jackson Lee led in the SurveyUSA poll among Democratic voters, 55 percent to 25 percent, Whitmire led among independent voters 46 percent to 26 percent — and Republicans supported Whitmire over Jackson Lee 68 percent to 12 percent. "He's always been a conservative Democrat," Tomlinson said of Whitmire. "And for him to run as a conservative Democrat is a surefire path to victory."
Jackson Lee's real base of support seems like it is Black voters. According to the SurveyUSA poll, Black voters favored her over Whitmire 63 percent to 15 percent. Meanwhile, white voters supported Whitmire by a very similar margin: 63 percent to 20 percent.
But while Black people (23 percent) and white people (24 percent) make up a similar share ofHouston's population, a plurality (45 percent) of the city's population is Latino, and it's these voters who might put Whitmire over the top. Hispanic voters polled by SurveyUSA supported Whitmire over Jackson Lee, 43 percent to 23 percent.
However, public polling of the race has been sparse, and drawing sweeping conclusions from crosstabs can be a fraught business. So an upset win by Jackson Lee can't be ruled out. Her path to victory likely depends on a low-turnout election in which Black, Democratic voters who know and support the congresswoman are more motivated to turn out than Whitmire's supporters. But the early vote, which ended Tuesday,doesn't seem promising, meaning the election day vote will be key. "It's going to be a challenge getting people out to vote," acknowledged Houston Federation of Teachers President Jackie Anderson, who backs Jackson Lee. "We agree that this race will be won on the ground. Her opponent has millions of dollars and has spent millions of dollars on this race."
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Anderson said that one of the challenges is reminding voters that, even though they already voted for mayor in November, they have to do it again in the runoff.
"We are optimistic," Anderson said. "It's just, we have to make sure our voters vote."
