就在共和党总统初选投票开始前几周，前总统唐纳德·特朗普继续在全国范围内主导竞选。但是在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州——最先投票的两个州——其他候选人已经得到了一些高调的支持和有利的报道。不过，这是否足以让佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯或前驻联合国大使妮基·黑利进入候选人名单?

到目前为止，看起来不太乐观。

“众所周知，闪电会在奇怪的时间和奇怪的地点发生，所以任何事情都有可能发生。我永远也不会放弃，”前RNC主席迈克尔·斯蒂尔说。“但我认为你问题的实质仍然是一个非常重要的问题:有什么变化吗?代言会改变什么吗?答案是否定的。”

特朗普在共和党初选中领先整体认可和公众投票。但初选中有一个初选:如果共和党人想要或需要一个替代特朗普的候选人，那就是竞争。对于在影子初选中竞争的候选人来说，在前两次提名竞争中至少有一次获得第二名是至关重要的。根据民意调查，德桑蒂斯在爱荷华州最有可能做到这一点，而海利在新罕布什尔州。这与他们花费时间和金钱的地方相匹配，也与他们获得大代言的地方相匹配。但这些支持可能会强化现状:一个分裂的领域可能只会导致特朗普获得提名。

对于德桑蒂斯来说，在爱荷华州的强劲表现可能为他在随后的比赛中复出铺平道路。他是走访了爱荷华州的所有99个县——以爱荷华州参议员查克·格拉斯利在该州纵横交错的竞选策略命名为“全格拉斯利”。并且根据来自撞击的数据截至12月11日，德桑蒂斯的支持者在爱荷华州花费了2530万美元的广告费用，比该州任何其他候选人都多。(也就是说，爱荷华州支出最大的外部团体是SFA基金，支持Haley的超级政治行动委员会1800万美元的广告支出。)上个月，德桑蒂斯在爱荷华州的竞选活动获得了两项重大支持:一封来自金·雷诺兹州长，另一个来自福音派领袖鲍勃·范德·普拉茨.

“新罕布什尔州发生的事情将受到艾奥瓦州结果的重大影响，那里将出现真正的特朗普替代者，”德桑蒂斯竞选团队的沟通主任安德鲁·罗密欧在给538的一份声明中说。“当罗恩·德桑蒂斯在那个位置上出来时，他将与60多名新罕布什尔州议员一起，随时准备与当权派和他们的候选人斗争，将权力还给基层保守派。”

虽然德桑蒂斯将精力集中在爱荷华州，但海利正在新罕布什尔州全力以赴，押注在第一个举行传统初选(而不是党团会议)的州的早期胜利将巩固她作为特朗普的共识替代者的地位。就像德桑蒂斯得到了爱荷华州州长的支持一样，哈利最近赢得了新罕布什尔州州长克里斯·苏努努的支持。海莉也有对财力雄厚的保守团体“美国繁荣”的支持，它已经专用400万美元帮助她，包括在新罕布什尔州。根据一项影响截至12月12日，哈利和她的支持者在新罕布什尔州花了1810万美元的广告，比其他任何候选人加起来都多。支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会是本周播出了首个针对海莉的负面广告——它恰好在波士顿媒体市场被保留，其中包括新罕布什尔州。作为对这一消息的回应，哈利在推特上写道有人开始紧张了."

“民调显示，唐纳德·特朗普可能会赢得爱荷华州的党团会议，”苏努努在一份报告中写道新罕布什尔州工会领袖专栏上周。“一旦发生这种情况，全国将把目光转向新罕布什尔州。我们为自己的独立倾向感到自豪，没有比让妮基·黑利在这里表现强劲更好的方式了，让她有机会在未来几个月里与唐纳德·特朗普一对一较量。”海利竞选活动的发言人奥利维亚·佩雷斯-库巴斯告诉538，共和党初选已经是“尼基和唐纳德·特朗普之间的两人竞赛。”

雷诺兹的支持是爱荷华州政治中的一件大事，标志着自1996年以来，这是爱荷华州州长第一次在党团会议前表示支持。但她的支持未能改变竞选的轨迹:11月5日，雷诺兹支持的前一天，特朗普以46%比17%领先德桑蒂斯538的爱荷华州平均民调。一个月后，特朗普的领先优势几乎没有变化:45%对18%。苏努努在新罕布什尔州的影响仍有待观察，但它必须比雷诺兹的影响大得多，才能消除特朗普目前在2010年以44%比19%领先哈利的优势538的新罕布什尔州平均投票率。Haley最好的情况可能是，无论她在新罕布什尔州获得什么样的势头，她都会在她的家乡南卡罗来纳州领先。

这最新Selzer&公司投票爱荷华州的奥巴马证实，德桑蒂斯的新支持者并没有改变许多选民的想法。当被问及雷诺兹的支持是否会让他们更有可能支持德桑蒂斯时，54%可能参加爱荷华州党团会议的人说这“没关系”;73%的人这样评价范德·普拉茨的支持。

但这并不意味着代言毫无价值。他们仍然很有价值，因为他们在党内活动人士和活动人士中有影响力——《美国的政治意识形态和政党》一书的作者汉斯·诺埃尔(Hans Noel)说，“这些人将从事动员工作和党团工作。”最近为南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特(Tim Scott)的总统竞选工作的共和党人马特·戈尔曼(Matt Gorman)表达了类似的观点。戈尔曼说:“像雷诺兹和苏努努这样的代言给了媒体一个很好的机会，这是除了辩论之外你可以在报道中突破的罕见方式之一。”“而且，从战术上来说，它给了你另一个代理人和对组织的使用，这非常非常有帮助。”

除了扩大竞选活动获得资源的渠道之外，背书让党内最有影响力的人走到了一起。诺埃尔解释说:“从历史上看，当所有这些人团结在同一个候选人的身后，或者他们中的大多数人团结在一起，这是最重要的。”。但是，原本可以改变2024年初选轨迹的主要共和党领导人一直在观望。根据538的代言跟踪器，共和党最有影响力的成员要么拒绝支持，要么支持特朗普。在该国目前没有竞选总统的25名共和党州长中，只有10名支持积极的总统候选人，其中7名支持特朗普。支持非特朗普候选人的三位州长分为德桑蒂斯(获得雷诺兹和俄克拉荷马州州长凯文·斯蒂特的支持)和哈利(获得苏努努的支持)。

国会中的共和党人也是如此。在2024年竞选中支持积极候选人的96名众议院共和党人中，有90人支持川普。德桑蒂斯获得了五项众议院支持，而海利只有一项——与决定不参加竞选的前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥的人数相同。

最后，在参议院，18名共和党人支持特朗普，没有人支持德桑蒂斯或哈利。“你可以想象一个故事，一个州的州长或知名参议员可以带来很多其他人……但这并没有发生，”诺埃尔说。

在投票中，有更多的政治家愿意加入这场争斗。德桑蒂斯的竞选团队指出了当地政客的一长串支持，包括前面提到的60名新罕布什尔州议员。(虽然这听起来令人印象深刻，但重要的是要记住，新罕布什尔州在州议会中拥有424个席位，比美国其他任何一个州都多。)虽然政客们不指望爱荷华州或新罕布什尔州的大牌共和党人会有更多的支持，但他们正在等待着看代表爱荷华州最保守地区的众议员兰迪·芬斯特拉(Randy Schmidt)是否会支持他。在党团会议之前权衡，这可能会在激烈的竞争中产生影响。

作为党主席，斯蒂尔说，在一些竞选中，他必须与党的领导人和候选人一起努力，在拥挤的初选中脱颖而出。但斯蒂尔钦佩前新泽西州长克里斯·克里斯蒂在竞选中发出的反特朗普信息，他认为共和党政客不会因为冷落前总统而拿自己的政治前途冒险。

斯蒂尔说:“如果人们围绕克里斯蒂的信息动员起来——同样，甚至不必支持克里斯·克里斯蒂，而只是支持围绕川普的信息——那可能在六个月前就有所不同了。”“但你离爱荷华州还有一个月。…在共和党初选中，没有一个潜伏的细胞会突然冒出来震惊世界。”

Can endorsements change the course of the GOP primary?

Just a few weeks before the start of voting in the GOP presidential primary,former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the race nationally. But in Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two states to vote — other candidates have been getting some high-profile endorsements and favorable press. Is it enough, though, to vault either Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley into contention?

So far, it's not looking promising.

"Lightning has been known to strike in weird places and weird times, so anything can happen. I would never take that off the table," former RNC Chairman Michael Steele said. "But I think the essence of your question remains a very important one: Has anything changed? Will endorsements change anything? And the answer is no."

Trump leads the GOP primary in terms ofoverall endorsementsandpublic polling. But there's a primary within the primary: the race to be the alternative candidate to Trump, should Republicans ever want or need one. For candidates competing in that shadow primary, it's essential to place second in at least one of the first two nominating contests. Based on the polls, DeSantis's best shot to do that is in Iowa, while Haley's is in New Hampshire. That matches where they're spending their time and money — and where they're receiving their big endorsements. But those endorsements will likely reinforce the status quo: a divided field that will probably just lead to a Trump nomination.

For DeSantis, a strong showing in Iowa could pave the way for a comeback in races later on the calendar. He'svisited all 99 Iowa counties— dubbed the "Full Grassley" after Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley's campaign strategy of crisscrossing the state. And according todata from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, DeSantis supporters had spent $25.3 million on advertising in Iowa as of Dec. 11 — more than any other candidate in the state. (That said, the biggest-spending outside group in Iowa has been SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley, with$18 million in ad spending.) The cherry on top for DeSantis's Iowa campaign came last month in the form of two major endorsements:one from Gov. Kim Reynolds, the other fromevangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

"What happens in New Hampshire will be significantly impacted by the outcome in Iowa, where the true Trump alternative will emerge," Andrew Romeo, the DeSantis campaign's communications director, said in a statement to 538. "And when Ron DeSantis comes out in that position, he will be joined by over 60 New Hampshire state legislators who stand ready to take the fight to the establishment and their candidates of yesteryear to return power to grassroots conservatives."

While DeSantis focuses his efforts on Iowa, Haley is going all in on New Hampshire, betting that an early victory in the first state to hold a traditional primary (rather than caucuses) will cement her status as the consensus alternative to Trump. Just as DeSantis has the endorsement of the governor of Iowa, Haley recently won thebacking of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Haley also has theendorsement of the deep-pocketed conservative group Americans for Prosperity, which has alreadydedicated $4 millionto help her, including in New Hampshire.According to AdImpact, Haley and her supporters had spent $18.1 million on ads in New Hampshire as of Dec. 12 — more than every other candidate combined. The super PAC supporting Trump isairing its first negative ad against Haley this week— and it happens to be reserved in the Boston media market, which includes New Hampshire. In response to the news, Haley tweeted, "Someone's getting nervous."

"Polls indicate Donald Trump will likely win the Iowa Caucus," Sununu wrote in anop-ed in the New Hampshire Union-Leaderlast week. "Once that happens, the nation will turn its eyes towards New Hampshire. We pride ourselves on our independent streak, and there is no better way to show it than by catapulting Nikki Haley to a strong showing here, providing her with the opportunity to take on Donald Trump one-on-one in the months ahead." Olivia Perez-Cubas, spokesperson for Haley's campaign, told 538 that the GOP primary is already "a two-person race between Nikki and Donald Trump."

Reynolds's endorsement was a major event in Iowa politics, marking thefirst time an Iowa governor has endorsed before the caucuses since 1996. But her endorsement failed to change the trajectory of the race: On Nov. 5, the day before Reynolds endorsed, Trump led DeSantis 46 percent to 17 percent in538's average of Iowa polls. One month later, Trump's lead was virtually unchanged: 45 percent to 18 percent. Sununu's impact in New Hampshire remains to be seen, but it would have to be much bigger than Reynolds's to erase Trump's current 44-percent-to-19-percent lead over Haley in538's New Hampshire polling average. Haley's best-case scenario might be that whatever momentum she can get in New Hampshire pushes her to the lead in South Carolina — her home state.

Thelatest Selzer& Company pollof Iowa confirmed that DeSantis's new endorsers aren't changing many voters' minds. When asked whether Reynolds's endorsement made them more or less likely to support DeSantis, 54 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers said that it "does not matter"; 73 percent said so about Vander Plaats's endorsement.

But that doesn't mean endorsements are worthless. They can still be valuable because of their effect among party operatives and activists — "people who are going to do the work of mobilization and caucus work," said Hans Noel, author of "Political Ideologies and Political Parties in America." GOP operative Matt Gorman, who most recently worked on South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott's presidential campaign, expressed a similar sentiment. "Endorsements like Reynolds's and Sununu's give out a nice shot of earned media, and it's one of the rare ways aside from the debates that you can break through in coverage," Gorman said. "But also, tactically, it gives you another surrogate and use of the organization, which is very, very helpful."

In addition to expanding a campaign's access to resources, endorsements bring the most influential people in the party onto the same page. "Historically, it's mattered the most when all of these folks coalesce behind the same candidate, or most of them do," Noel explained. But the major Republican leaders who could have changed the trajectory of the 2024 primary have stayed on the sidelines. According to538's endorsement tracker, the most influential members of the Republican Party have either withheld their endorsements or endorsed Trump. Of the 25 Republican governors in the country not currently running for president, just 10 have endorsed an active presidential candidate — and seven of those have endorsed Trump. The three governors who have endorsed non-Trump candidates are split between DeSantis (who has endorsements from Reynolds and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt) and Haley (who has Sununu's endorsement).

It's the same story for Republicans in Congress. Of the 96 House Republicans who have endorsed active candidates in the 2024 race, 90 are backing Trump. DeSantis has five House endorsements, and Haley has just one — the same number as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who decided not to run.

Finally, in the Senate, 18 Republicans have endorsed Trump, and none has endorsed DeSantis or Haley. "You can imagine a story where a governor of a state or high-profile senator could bring along a lot of other people … but that's not happening," Noel said.

Further down the ballot, there are more politicians willing to enter the fray. The DeSantis campaign points to a long list of endorsements from local politicians, including the aforementioned 60 New Hampshire state legislators. (While that sounds impressive, it's important to remember that New Hampshire has 424 seats in its state legislature, more than any other state in the country.) And while politicos don't expect any more endorsements from big-name Republicans in Iowa or New Hampshire, they are waiting to see whether Rep. Randy Feenstra, who represents the most conservative district in Iowa,weighs in ahead of the caucuses, which could make a difference in a tight contest.

As party chairman, Steele said there were races where he would have to work with party leaders and candidates themselves to winnow down a crowded primary field. But Steele, who admires former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's anti-Trump messaging on the trail, doesn't think Republican politicians will risk their political futures by snubbing the former president.

"If folks galvanized around the Christie message — again, not even having to endorse Chris Christie, but just get behind that messaging around Trump — that could have maybe made a difference six months ago," Steele said. "But you're a month out from Iowa. … There's not a sleeper cell inside the GOP primary base that is going to suddenly come out and shock the world."