当美联储最近表示明年降息，股市猛增创历史新高和分析师有声的对“软着陆”的乐观希望。

在距离总统大选不到一年的时候，这份声明提出了一个单独的考虑:降息对乔·拜登总统的连任竞选意味着什么。

接受美国广播公司采访的分析人士说，研究表明，强劲的经济有利于现任总统候选人，因为选民会将他们的财务状况纳入对领导人工作表现的评估。

但分析师补充称，降息的影响更为复杂。

“良好的经济有利于现任者，”耶鲁大学教授雷·费尔告诉美国广播公司新闻，他负责监督一个基于经济状况预测选举的模型。“糟糕的经济会反过来。”

“经济表现如何部分取决于美联储的行动，但也取决于其他因素，”费尔补充道。他拒绝评论这种动态如何应用于当前的总统竞选。

从理论上讲，较低的利率会降低企业和消费者的借贷成本，推动企业投资新项目，让普通人努力购买更多商品。所有这些都应该有助于推动经济增长，提振消费者的乐观情绪。

一些分析师说，反过来，经济的大幅增长可能有利于拜登，消除对衰退的担忧，改善日常生活。

然而，一些分析师表示，即将到来的降息带来的好处可能会更加有限，因为利率变动会在长达数月的延迟后生效。此外，他们补充说，经济增长可能不会给人们的直接体验带来足够的改善，从而使人们对经济的看法保持不变。

拜登竞选团队没有立即回应置评请求。

根据一些关键指标，美国经济显示出良好的健康状况:失业率徘徊在50年低点附近，经济增长汹涌最近三个月的通货膨胀看台远低于去年的峰值。

尽管如此，许多选民还是对拜登的经济管理吹毛求疵。美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查显示，近三分之二的美国人不赞成拜登处理经济的方式找到八月。

因此，一些分析师表示，经济对拜登构成了挑战，并指出美联储的政策计划可以缓解一些困难。

非营利机构彼得森研究所研究员、前美联储高级经济学家约瑟夫·加尼翁告诉美国广播公司新闻，即使在美联储宣布可能降息之前，单是宣布其计划就已经带来了经济效益。

央行近日的政策转变降低了非常重要的债券的收益率10年期国债。较低的债券收益率降低了消费者在大小物品上的借贷成本。

例如，上周，房地美抵押贷款利率自去年8月以来首次跌破7%说在一份声明中。

“债券收益率下降，这实际上刺激了经济，”加尼翁说。

美联储转向降息也可能消除拜登的一个潜在政治责任:加息。

华盛顿咨询公司Allon advocation的创始人兼总裁史蒂夫·博姆斯(Steve Boms)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，“这是拜登政府缺乏负面政治阻力的表现。”。

最近一位未能赢得连任的民主党总统候选人吉米·卡特在美联储历史性的一系列加息中落败。

尽管如此，一些分析师警告说，潜在的降息可能对拜登的连任希望影响甚微，因为选民已经不赞成他对经济的处理，潜在的改善可能证明太少或太晚，无法改变这种情绪。

Boms说，挑战部分源于围绕拜登的难题，即强有力的经济措施没有转化为对他工作的认可。

“通常，美联储降息的主要动机之一是促进就业和减少失业，”Boms补充道。“但在当前形势下，我们已经处于历史最低失业率水平。”

此外，加尼翁说，降息带来的经济效益往往在美联储实施政策数月后才会显现。他补充说，如果美联储在明年年中开始降息，经济改善可能不会在选举日之前显现出来。

“窗口正在关闭，”加尼翁说。

路透社分析，明年的降息将偏离美联储在最近许多总统选举之前采取的政策方针找到。该渠道显示，在2020年、2016年、2012年和2000年美国总统选举之前，政策利率在6至12个月内保持不变。

可以肯定的是，美联储表示，它根据经济状况做出决定，并作为一个独立的政府机构运作。

周三在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上，当被问及明年的选举时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔说，“我们不考虑政治。”

“我们将在我们认为合适的时间做我们认为对经济有利的事情，”鲍威尔补充道。

然而，费尔在2月份的一篇文章中写道，美联储对抗通胀的斗争对总统选举具有重大影响。

费尔说，在接下来的几个月里，“媒体将被关于政治候选人、辩论、民调结果和竞选支出问题的报道所主导。”

他补充称:“但幕后才是真正重要的，即美联储会有多成功?”

What could interest rate cuts mean for the 2024 election?

When the Federal Reserve recentlysignaledinterest rate cuts next year, the stock marketsoaredto record highs and analystsvoicedsunny hopes of a "soft landing."

Arriving less than a year before the presidential contest, the announcement raised a separate consideration: What the rate cuts could mean for President Joe Biden's reelection bid.

Analysts who spoke to ABC News said research shows that a strong economy benefits an incumbent presidential candidate, since voters factor their financial well being into an assessment of the leader's job performance.

But the implications of interest rate cuts are more complicated, the analysts added.

"A good economy benefits an incumbent," Ray Fair, a professor at Yale University who oversees a model that forecasts elections based on economic conditions, told ABC News. "A bad economy goes the other way."

"How the economy does depends in part on what the Fed does, but it depends on other things, too," Fair added. He declined to comment on how this dynamic could be applied to the current presidential race.

In theory, lower interest rates make borrowing less expensive for businesses and consumers, propelling companies to invest in new projects and everyday people to stretch for bigger purchases. That all should help propel economic growth and buoy consumer optimism.

In turn, a major economic surge could benefit Biden, dispelling concern about a recession and improving the livelihoods of everyday people, some analysts said.

However, the benefits of forthcoming rate cuts could prove more limited, since rate moves take hold after a period of delay that can last months, some analysts said. Further, economic growth may not yield sufficient improvement in people's direct experience, leaving sentiment about the economy unchanged, they added.

The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

By some key measures, the U.S. economy demonstrates good health: The unemployment rate hovers near a 50-year low, economic growthsurgedin a recent three-month period and inflationstandswell below a peak last year.

Still, many voters find fault in Biden's stewardship of the economy. Nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy, an ABC News/Ipsos pollfoundin August.

The economy, therefore, poses a challenge for Biden, some analysts said, noting that the policy plans at the Fed could alleviate some of the difficulty.

Even before the Fed institutes a potential rate cut, the announcement of its plans alone has delivered economic benefits, Joseph Gagnon, fellow at the nonprofit Peterson Institute and a former senior economist at the Federal Reserve, told ABC News.

The central bank's policy shift in recent days reduced yields on the all-important10-year treasury bond. Lower bond yields make borrowing less costly for consumers on items big and small.

Last week, for instance, mortgage rates fell below 7% for the first time since August, Freddie Macsaidin a statement.

"Bond yields fell and that actually does stimulate the economy," Gagnon said.

The central bank's pivot to rate cuts could also do away with a potential political liability for Biden: rate increases.

"That's the absence of a negative political headwind for the Biden administration," Steve Boms, founder and president of Washington D.C.-based consulting firm Allon Advocacy, told ABC News.

The most recent Democratic presidential candidate who failed to win reelection, Jimmy Carter, lost his bid amid a historic series of rate hikes at the Fed.

Still, some analysts warned that potential rate cuts could have minimal impact on Biden's reelection hopes, since voters already disapprove of his handling of the economy and potential improvement could prove too little or too late to change that sentiment.

The challenge stems in part from the conundrum surrounding Biden, in which strong economic measures have not translated into approval of his job, Boms said.

"One of the primary motivations, typically, of the Fed reducing rates is to bolster employment and reduce unemployment," Boms added. "But in the current situation we're already at historically low unemployment levels."

Moreover, the economic benefits brought by rate cuts often arrive months after the Fed imposes the policy, Gagnon said. If the Fed begins to cut rates midway through next year, he added, the economic improvement may not manifest itself ahead of election day.

"The window is closing," Gagnon said.

Rate cuts next year would deviate from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysisfound. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, the outlet showed.

To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.

When asked about next year's election at a press conference in Washington D.C. on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powellsaid, "We don't think about politics."

"We'll do the things that we think are right for the economy at what we think is the right time," Powell added.

However, the Fed's fight against inflation carries significant implications for the presidential election, Fair wrote in an article in February.

Over the coming months, Fair said, "the media will be dominated by stories about political candidates, debates, poll results, [and] campaign spending issues."

He added: "But behind the scenes is what really matters, namely how successful will the Fed be?"