美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现，2024年初选开始时，唐纳德·特朗普在关键的受欢迎程度方面远远领先于他的共和党对手，而乔·拜登的工作支持率降至过去15年来任何一位总统的最低点。

随着爱荷华州周一举行党团会议，全国调查发现，共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士在三个指标上对特朗普的评价尤其高:最有可能在11月获胜，是一个强有力的领导者，是该党最合格的候选人。

特朗普还在另外两个属性上领先于他的共和党对手——同理心(即理解像你这样的人的问题)和共同的价值观。十分之七的共和党人和共和党学习者总体上对特朗普有好感。

2024年1月10日，前总统唐纳德·特朗普准备在爱荷华州得梅因的爱荷华市政厅发表演讲。

Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

这些候选人中的哪一个…

ABC新闻/益普索民意调查

总体而言，72%支持共和党的成年人对特朗普被提名感到满意，与5月份的75%相似。61%的人会对罗恩·德桑蒂斯感到满意。其他人得分较低——妮基·黑利，满意率为48%;维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，44%;克里斯·克里斯蒂(周三退出)，23%;还有阿萨·哈钦森17%。

在政治温和派中更难找到满足感，他们占共和党和共和党学习者的十分之三。他们对特朗普表示满意的可能性比保守派低21个百分点，对德桑蒂斯的满意度低30个百分点，对拉马斯瓦米的满意度低22个百分点。对于哈利、克里斯蒂和哈钦森来说，这些差距基本上消失了。

与共和党方面的特朗普相比，对拜登成为共和党提名人感到满意的民主党人和倾向于民主党的独立人士要少得多，为57%，这反映了他在经济和移民等问题上的整体支持率较低。

这项调查是由ABC制作的兰格研究协会现场工作由益普索公共事务部通过基于概率的在线知识面板。过去用于比较的民意调查是通过电话进行的，在这项研究中努力将差异最小化;也就是说，在某些情况下，模式效应可能是一个因素。该调查以英语和西班牙语进行，包括2228名受访者的强大样本。

作为党的提名人满意吗?

ABC新闻/益普索民意调查

共和党竞赛-就可当选性和领导力而言，特朗普在共和党竞选中的优势尤为显著。68%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士表示，他是最有可能在11月当选的候选人。海利的这一比例骤降至12%，德桑蒂斯为11%，其余的都是个位数。

几乎同样多的人(65%)认为特朗普是共和党阵容中最强的领袖，再次急剧下降到他的对手。

更少，但仍有54%的人认为他是最有资格担任总统的候选人。不到一半(46%)的人说他最了解像他们这样的人的问题，基本上有45%的人选择特朗普作为最能代表他们个人价值观的候选人。德桑蒂斯和哈利在这些指标上的得分都在十几岁。

另有10%的人选择拉马斯瓦米作为最了解他们问题的候选人。在所有其他指标上，对拉马斯瓦米、前候选人克里斯蒂和哈钦森的偏好都是个位数。

德桑蒂斯和哈利的受欢迎程度也落后于特朗普。与特朗普的71%相比，60%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士认为德桑蒂斯有利，46%的人认为海利也是如此。经过几个月的竞选活动，22%的人仍然不支持哈利;德桑蒂斯是13%，特朗普是1%。

各组之间有一些显著的差异。拥有四年大学学位的共和党人和倾向于共和党的人比非大学毕业生更不太可能认为特朗普在测试的每一个属性上都是最好的。最引人注目的是，只有27%的大学毕业生认为特朗普最了解像他们这样的人的问题，而没有四年大学学位的人则有57%。在说特朗普“最能代表你自己的个人价值”方面，教育水平也有类似的27分差距，24分说他最有资格，16分认为他是最强有力的领导人，10分认为他最有可能当选。

此外，共和党核心群体白人福音派新教徒认为特朗普最能代表他们的价值观的比例比非福音派新教徒低11个百分点，分别为40%和51%，鉴于样本规模，这是一个微小的差异。与此同时，特朗普在福音派中的总体支持率高于其他宗教团体，这表明他们正在使用不同于共同价值观的标准来评估他。

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拜登/特朗普-拜登/特朗普大选，如果这是初选的结果，将代表一场明显不受欢迎的候选人的战斗。在所有成年人中，拜登在此次民调中的支持率仅为33%，比特朗普担任总统时的低点(36%)还要糟糕，也是自2006-2008年小布什以来的最低值。58%的人不赞同拜登的工作。

在群体中，现在只有31%的女性认可拜登在任期间的工作，创下新低(34%的男性认可)。他在2020年赢得了57%的女性。

他在独立选民中有28%的支持率，这是一个习惯性的摇摆选民群体;温和派中32%的低支持率;大学毕业生的支持率为41%，比他职业生涯的平均水平低10个百分点。

总统工作批准

ABC新闻/益普索民意调查

此外，拜登的支持率在黑人中低于平均水平21个百分点，在西班牙裔中低于平均水平15个百分点，而在白人中为6个百分点;尤其是，更多的黑人没有发表意见。

不同年龄的黑人对拜登的看法存在显著差异:他在50岁及以上的黑人中的支持率为65%，在50岁以下的黑人中的支持率急剧下降至32%。白人或西班牙人之间的年龄差距并不明显。

特朗普的工作回顾评分高于拜登，但仍不积极——回顾过去，41%的人认可他处理总统职务的方式，比四个月前下降了7个百分点。其中男性下降了13个百分点，女性没有明显变化;无党派人士下降了10个百分点。

特朗普面临的另一个问题是他的选票准入问题。据周五报道，56%的美国人鉴于特朗普在2021年1月6日美国国会大厦骚乱中的作用，我认为美国最高法院应该下令特朗普退出所有州的投票(30%)或让每个州自己决定(26%)。

偏好和属性-对两个人的个人评价差不多都是负面的。只有33%的美国人对拜登有好感——大大低于2020年大选前夏天的50%——同样少的35%的人对特朗普表示好感。(德桑蒂斯和海莉都是28%。)

在调查中测试的三个属性之一——诚实可信——上，拜登领先特朗普15个百分点。41%的人说这是对拜登的描述，而26%的人说这适用于特朗普。这比特朗普上次在2017年4月当选总统三个月后达到的38%的高点有所下降，也比他在诚实和可信度方面的低点低了一个百分点。

不过，特朗普带着其他两个领域的优势回来了。47%的人说他具有有效担任总统所需的思维敏锐度，相比之下，28%的人认为拜登如此。此外，57%的人说特朗普有必要的身体健康，这也是拜登的28%。

特朗普在精神敏锐度和身体健康方面的评分都比去年5月下降了7分。同样，拜登的健康指数下降了5点，精神敏锐度下降了4点。

第三方?-如果拜登和特朗普是主要政党的提名人，37%的人说他们可能会认真考虑第三方总统候选人。然而，只有15%的人表示他们很可能会这么做。登记选民的投票结果是一样的。

在独立女性和温和女性中，愿意认真考虑拜登-特朗普复赛中的第三方候选人的比例高达51%。2020年拜登选民比2020年特朗普选民高11个百分点，37%比26%。与此同时，在2020年没有投票的人中，有46%的人今年不太可能投票。

经济/问题-广泛的经济不满是当前政治态度的一个关键因素。鉴于2022年的通胀率达到40年来的最高水平，现在只有13%的美国人说，自拜登执政以来，他们的经济状况有所改善;相反，43%的人说他们没有那么富裕，这是9月份创下的37年来的最高纪录。相比之下，在特朗普任期的中期，只有三分之一的人(13%)说他们没有那么富裕。

因此，只有31%的人赞同拜登处理经济的方式，而56%的人不赞同。

另一个问题探究了为什么经济态度如此悲观。如果可以选择，24%的人说“鉴于低失业率和工资上涨，经济状况良好。”更多的人——71%——说“考虑到更高的价格和利率，经济形势很糟糕。”

经济和政治态度是双向的，这是一句格言。对经济不满的人更有可能批评现任总统。支持现任总统的人不太倾向于批评经济。在这次民意调查中也是如此;90%的共和党人认为经济状况不佳，74%的无党派人士也是如此，相比之下，民主党人的这一比例为49%。

也就是说，拜登在民主党人当中处理经济问题的支持率只有65%，是职业生涯的低点。

经济不是拜登唯一的不足。他在美墨边境处理移民问题的支持率尤其低，只有18%的人赞成，约为2021年春天的一半，而现在有63%的人不赞成。自2004年1月以来，在美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的民意调查中，拜登在移民问题上的得分最低(随着时间的推移，问题的措辞有所变化)。

拜登在处理以色列和哈马斯之间的战争上也得到了很差的评分，26%的人赞成，48%的人反对;相当多的25%的人不发表意见。

这一结果可能反映了对局势的失望，而不是对拜登的失望，因为43%的人也表示美国在支持以色列方面做了适当的事情，39%的人表示美国在帮助保护巴勒斯坦平民方面做了适当的事情——这两个数字都远远高于拜登对处理局势的认可。

大约十分之三的人认为美国在支持以色列方面做得太多了;大约十分之二的人认为它做得太少。在保护巴勒斯坦平民方面，情况大致相反。

37%的白人福音派新教徒认为美国在支持以色列方面做得太少，远高于其他宗教团体的这一观点。穆斯林和犹太人的样本量太小，无法进行可靠的分析。

同样在国际方面，最终结果表明，对美国支持乌克兰与俄罗斯战争的批评有所缓和。认为美国在支持乌克兰方面做得太多的美国人比例从2022年4月的14%升至9月的41%;在这次民意调查中下降到34%。一个悬而未决的问题是，这是承认乌克兰需要帮助，还是进一步的援助在国会受阻。

方法——这项ABC News/益普索民意调查于2024年1月4日至8日通过基于概率的益普索知识小组以英语和西班牙语在2，228名成年人的随机全国样本中进行。党派分歧为25-25-41%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的误差为抽样误差2.5个百分点，包括设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。

该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由益普索进行采样和数据收集。

Trump tops his opponents while Biden hits a new low in approval ahead of Iowa caucus: POLL

The 2024 primary season begins with Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents on key measures of popularity, while Joe Biden's job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.

With the Iowa caucuses Monday, the national survey finds Trump especially well rated by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance to win in November, being a strong leader and being the party's most qualified candidate.

Trump also leads his Republican opponents, by less of a margin, on two other attributes -- empathy (i.e., understanding the problems of people like you) and shared values. And seven in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners report a favorable opinion of Trump overall.

In all, 72% of Republican-aligned adults would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee, similar to 75% in May. Sixty-one percent would be satisfied with Ron DeSantis. Others score lower -- Nikki Haley, satisfactory to 48%; Vivek Ramaswamy, 44%; Chris Christie (who withdrew Wednesday), 23%; and Asa Hutchinson, 17%.

Satisfaction is harder to find among political moderates, who account for about three in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners. They're 21 points less likely than conservatives to express satisfaction with Trump, 30 points on DeSantis and 22 points on Ramaswamy. These gaps essentially disappear for Haley, Christie and Hutchinson.

Compared with Trump on the Republican side, considerably fewer Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be satisfied with Biden as their party's nominee, 57% -- a reflection of his weak ratings overall and on issues including the economy and immigration.

This survey was produced for ABC byLanger Research Associateswith fieldwork byIpsos Public Affairsvia its online, probability-based KnowledgePanel®. Past polls used for comparison were conducted by telephone, with efforts in this study to minimize differences; that said, mode effects may be a factor in some cases. The survey, fielded in English and Spanish, includes a robust sample of 2,228 respondents.

GOP CONTEST-- Trump's advantages in the Republican contest are particularly striking in terms of perceived electability and leadership. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he's the candidate with the best chance of getting elected in November. That plummets to 12% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis and single digits for the rest.

Nearly as many, 65%, peg Trump as the strongest leader in the GOP lineup, again dropping precipitously for his opponents.

Fewer, but still 54%, say he is the candidate best qualified to serve as president. Fewer than half, 46%, say he best understands the problems of people like them and essentially as many, 45%, pick Trump as the candidate who best represents their own personal values. DeSantis and Haley score in the teens on these measures.

An additional 10% pick Ramaswamy as the candidate who best understands their problems. On all other measures, preferences for Ramaswamy, former candidate Christie and Hutchinson all are in single digits.

DeSantis and Haley trail Trump in favorability as well. Compared with Trump's 71%, 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents see DeSantis favorably and 46% say the same for Haley. After all her months of campaigning, 22% still don't offer an opinion of Haley; it's 13% for DeSantis, vs. 1% for Trump.

There are some notable differences among groups. Republicans and GOP-leaners who have a four-year college degree are less likely than non-graduates to say Trump is best on each of the attributes tested. Most strikingly, just 27% of those with a college degree say Trump best understands the problems of people like them, compared with 57% of those without a four-year degree. There's a similar 27-point gap by education in saying Trump "best represents your own personal values," 24 points in saying he's best qualified, 16 points in seeing him as the strongest leader and 10 points in seeing him as most electable.

Additionally, white evangelical Protestants, a core Republican group, are 11 points less apt than their non-evangelical counterparts to say Trump best represents their values, 40% vs. 51%, a slight difference given sample sizes. At the same time, Trump's overall favorability rating is higher among evangelicals than in other religious groups, suggesting they're using a different gauge than shared values to assess him.

BIDEN/TRUMP-- A Biden/Trump general election, if that's the outcome of the primary season, would represent a battle of markedly unpopular candidates. Among all adults, Biden's approval rating is just 33% in this poll, worse than Trump's low as president (36%) and the lowest since George W. Bush from 2006-2008. Fifty-eight percent disapprove of Biden's work.

Among groups, just 31% of women now approve of Biden's work in office, a new low (as do 34% of men). He won 57% of women in 2020.

He's at 28% approval among independents, a customary swing voter group; a low of 32% among moderates; and a low of 41% among college graduates, 10 points off his career average in that group.

Further, Biden's approval rating is 21 points below average among Black people and 15 points below average among Hispanic people, compared with 6 points among white people; more Black people, in particular, offer no opinion.

There's a striking difference among Black people by age in their views of Biden: He has an approval rating of 65% among Black people age 50 and up, dropping sharply to 32% among Black people younger than 50. Age gaps are not apparent among white or Hispanic people.

Trump's retrospective job rating is better than Biden's, but still not positive -- looking back, 41% approve of how he handled his presidency, a 7-point drop from four months ago. That includes a 13-point drop among men, with no meaningful change among women; and a 10-point drop among independents.

Another issue for Trump is the question of his ballot access. As reported Friday,56% of Americansthink the U.S. Supreme Court should either order Trump off the ballot in all states (30%) or let each state decide on its own (26%), given his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

FAVORABILITY AND ATTRIBUTES-- Personal assessments are about equally negative for both men. Just 33% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Biden -- down sharply from 50% the summer before the 2020 election -- and about as few, 35%, express a favorable view of Trump. (It's 28% for DeSantis and Haley alike.)

Biden leads Trump, by 15 points, in one of three attributes tested in the survey -- being honest and trustworthy. Forty-one percent say this describes Biden, vs. 26% who say it applies to Trump. That's down from a high of 38% for Trump, last reached in April 2017, three months into his presidency, and it's a point from his low on honesty and trustworthiness.

Trump comes back, though, with advantages in two other areas. Forty-seven percent say he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, compared with 28% who say this of Biden. And more, 57%, say Trump has the physical health necessary to serve, again compared with 28% for Biden.

Trump's ratings for mental sharpness and physical health both are down 7 points from last May. Similarly, Biden's rating for health is down 5 points, and for mental sharpness, 4 points.

THIRD PARTY?-- If Biden and Trump were the major-party nominees, 37% say they'd be likely to seriously consider a third-party candidate for president. Fewer, however, say they'd be very likely to do so – 15%. Results are identical among registered voters.

Readiness to seriously consider a third-party candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch peaks at 51% among independent women and moderate women alike. It's 11 points higher among 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters, 37 vs. 26%. At the same time, it's 46% among those who did not vote in 2020, a group that's less likely than others to turn out this year.

ECONOMY/ISSUES-- Broad economic discontent is a key force in current political attitudes. Given 2022's 40-year high in inflation, just 13% of Americans now say they've gotten better off financially since Biden took office; 43% instead say they're not as well off, a point from the 37-year record set in September. For comparison, in the middle of Trump's term in office, just one-third as many people, 13%, said they were not as well off.

It follows that just 31% approve of how Biden is handling the economy, while 56% disapprove.

Another question explores why economic attitudes are so glum. Given a choice, 24% say "the economy is in good shape, given low unemployment and rising wages." Far more -- 71% -- say "the economy is in bad shape, given higher prices and interest rates."

It's a maxim that economic and political attitudes are bidirectional. People who are unhappy with the economy are more likely to criticize the incumbent president. People who are aligned with the incumbent president are less apt to criticize the economy. So it is in this poll; 90% of Republicans say the economy is in bad shape, as do 74% of independents, compared with 49% of Democrats.

That said, Biden has a tepid 65% approval rating among Democrats for handling the economy, a career low.

The economy isn't Biden's only shortfall. His rating for handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border is especially low -- just 18% approve, about half what it was in spring 2021, while 63% now disapprove. Biden has the lowest rating on immigration for any president in past ABC News/Washington Post polls to ask the question since January 2004 (with various changes over time in question wording).

Biden also gets a poor rating for handling the war between Israel and Hamas, with 26% approving and 48% disapproving; a substantial 25% don't express an opinion.

That result might reflect frustration with the situation, not so much with Biden, since 43% also say the United States is doing about the right amount to support Israel and 39% say it's doing about the right amount to help protect Palestinian civilians – both well higher than Biden's approval for handling the situation.

About three in 10 say the United States is doing too much to support Israel; about two in 10 say it's doing too little. These are roughly reversed in terms of protecting Palestinian civilians.

Thirty-seven percent of white evangelical Protestants think the U.S. is doing too little to support Israel, well higher than this view in other religious groups. Sample sizes of Muslims and Jews are too small for reliable analysis.

A final result, also on the international front, suggests an easing in criticism of U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. The share of Americans saying the United States is doing too much to support Ukraine rose from 14% in April 2022 to 41% in September; it's down to 34% in this poll. An open question is whether that reflects recognition of Ukraine's need for help -- or the fact that further aid has been blocked in Congress.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Jan. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,228 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-41 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof 2.5 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.