特朗普的胜利很可能关闭了他可能失去共和党提名的任何可能性。在…期间大多数代表尚未获奖从技术上讲，海莉仍在参加竞选，尚不清楚她将在哪里赢得任何初选或党团会议;新罕布什尔州可能是她最好的机会。因此，现在特朗普很有可能在2024年共和党初选中横扫所有56个州和地区。
海莉在花岗岩州表现不佳，只是因为她在那里努力竞选;她在那里努力竞选，因为她的团队正确地认识到这一点新罕布什尔州的人口结构使其非常不适合特朗普。事实上，如果你试图在实验室中设计一个在共和党初选中对特朗普不利的州，它看起来很像新罕布什尔州。即:
根据一份纽约时报/锡耶纳学院12月民意调查在全国范围内，没有学士学位的共和党选民中有76%支持特朗普，但只有39%的学士学位选民支持特朗普。新罕布什尔州是大学教育程度最高的八个州在英国，25岁及以上的人中有41%拥有学士学位。
如同我们几周前写过信，福音派是特朗普的核心投票集团之一;当我们对全国共和党初选的福音派交叉表进行平均时，大约70%的人支持特朗普。但是根据美国福音派新教徒协会的数据，新罕布什尔州只有8%的居民是白人公共宗教研究所。在2016年的出口民调中，新罕布什尔州在28个州中共和党初选选民的福音派程度排名第27位。
特朗普在自认为是共和党人的人中也比自认为是独立人士的人中表现更好，但这些人仍然参加了共和党初选——这一趋势杰弗里·斯凯利几个月前就确认了。根据初步投票后调查在新罕布什尔州，特朗普以74%对25%的得票率赢得了自称的共和党人，但海利以60%对38%的得票率赢得了自称的独立人士。海利在新罕布什尔州表现出色，因为43%的共和党初选选民认为自己是独立的，但这几乎肯定不会在未来的竞选中出现。新罕布什尔州允许非共和党人在共和党初选中投票，这是许多州没有的，但它也有更多的选民不属于任何政党比大多数州都多。因此，毫不奇怪，在2016年，除了一个州(马萨诸塞州)外，其他所有州在共和党初选选民中自我认同的共和党人都多于新罕布什尔州。
为我们的精心设计的委托跟踪程序艾略特·莫里斯实际上建立了一个模型，使用类似的政治和人口因素来计算每个候选人在每个州和地区的支持程度。你瞧，截至周一，该模型认为新罕布什尔州是整个国家中海利最好的州，特朗普第二差的州。
新罕布什尔州是海莉最强的州
根据基于民意调查和人口统计的538模型，估计前总统唐纳德·特朗普和前联合国大使妮基·黑利在新罕布什尔州和随后投票州和地区的共和党初选中的支持率
新罕布什尔州 53.0% 31.2%
爱达荷 53.0 22.8
怀俄明州 53.1 22.8
南卡罗来纳州 62.5 21.8
缅因州 56.4 20.6
北达科他州 60.9 19.9
佛蒙特州 59.6 19.9
马萨诸塞州 61.6 18.2
犹他州 53.9 18.0
明尼苏达州 53.9 17.9
堪萨斯州 54.2 17.9
俄克拉何马州 54.6 17.6
威斯康星州 59.7 17.2
密西西比河 65.6 17.1
密歇根 63.3 17.0
路易斯安那 65.8 16.9
哥伦比亚特区 64.8 16.6
美属维尔京群岛 66.1 16.2
特拉华河 63.2 16.2
罗得岛 62.4 16.0
俄勒冈州 62.4 16.0
华盛顿 62.4 16.0
内布拉斯加州 62.4 16.0
阿拉斯加 63.0 15.6
夏威夷 66.0 15.0
亚拉巴马州 68.7 14.9
关岛 66.6 14.6
俄亥俄州 67.3 14.5
格鲁吉亚 66.1 14.4
北马里亚纳群岛 67.0 14.3
美属萨摩亚群岛 67.1 14.3
宾夕法尼亚州 64.5 14.3
阿肯色州 63.1 14.0
北卡罗来纳州 68.3 13.9
肯塔基 63.2 13.9
康涅狄格州 64.3 13.7
伊利诺伊 65.6 13.7
西弗吉尼亚州 63.3 13.5
蒙大拿 63.4 13.5
纽约 64.1 13.4
弗吉尼亚 66.6 13.2
南达科他州 59.6 13.1
科罗拉多州 65.6 13.0
印第安纳 66.1 12.8
密苏里河 67.3 12.8
加利福尼亚 69.2 12.5
亚利桑那州 67.6 12.0
内华达州 66.5 12.0
马里兰州 65.8 11.5
新墨西哥州 68.1 11.2
波多黎各 69.4 11.1
新泽西州 67.8 10.8
得克萨斯州 70.7 10.7
佛罗里达州 65.7 10.4
田纳西州 75.1 8.1
资料来源:民调、美国人口普查局、美国社区调查、公共宗教研究所、皮尤研究中心
没错，这种模式比海莉在新罕布什尔州的表现低了约10个百分点，但即使你在其他地方给她10个百分点的支持，也不会让她领先于特朗普。简而言之，如果海莉不能在新罕布什尔州获胜，她在任何地方都将难以获胜——包括她的家乡南卡罗来纳州，尽管她在那里落后于特朗普民意测验中超过30个百分点。显然，如果没有赢得一个州，你就不可能赢得总统提名。
当然，我们永远不能排除竞赛中的戏剧性转折，由类似健康恐慌或特朗普的法律问题。但在这一点上，特朗普需要付出如此巨大的代价才能获得提名——因为如果没有任何变化，迄今为止的结果表明，他将赢得每一场初选和几乎每一个可供争夺的代表。
If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere
New Hampshire was supposed to be former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s big breakout. She spent more of her time in the state, and spent more money on ads there, than any other Republican presidential candidate — and yet she still lost to former President Donald Trump. As of Tuesday night at 11 p.m. Eastern, Trump had 54 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, and Haley had 45 percent.
Trump’s win likely closes the door on any possibility that he could lose the GOP nomination. While most delegates have yet to be awarded and Haley is still technically contesting the race, it’s not clear where she’ll be able to win any primaries or caucuses; New Hampshire was likely her best shot. As a result, it’s now pretty likely that Trump will sweep all 56 states and territories in the 2024 Republican primary.
Haley didn’t perform well in the Granite State just because she campaigned hard there; she campaigned hard there because her team correctly realized that New Hampshire’s demographics make it a uniquely bad fit for Trump. Indeed, if you tried to engineer a state in a lab to be bad for Trump in a Republican primary, it would look a lot like New Hampshire. To wit:
According to a December poll from The New York Times/Siena College, Trump was supported by 76 percent of Republican voters nationwide without a bachelor’s degree, but only 39 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree. New Hampshire is one of the top eight most college-educated states in the union, with 41 percent of people age 25 and older holding a bachelor’s degree.
As we wrote a couple weeks ago, evangelicals are one of Trump’s core voting blocs; when we averaged the evangelical crosstabs of national Republican primary polls, something like 70 percent of them supported Trump. But only 8 percent of New Hampshire residents are white evangelical Protestants, according to the Public Religion Research Institute. And in 2016 exit polls, New Hampshire ranked 27th out of 28 states in terms of how evangelical their Republican primary electorates were.
Trump also does better among self-identified Republicans than among self-identified independents who nonetheless participate in Republican primaries — a trend that Geoffrey Skelley identified months ago. According to preliminary exit polling, Trump won self-identified Republicans in New Hampshire 74 percent to 25 percent, but Haley won self-identified independents 60 percent to 38 percent. Haley did well in New Hampshire because 43 percent of the Republican primary electorate identified as independent, but this almost certainly won’t be the case in future contests. New Hampshire allows non-Republicans to vote in Republican primaries, which many states do not, and it also has more voters unaffiliated with a political party than most states. It’s no surprise, then, that in 2016, all but one exit-polled state (Massachusetts) had more self-identified Republicans in their Republican primary electorates than New Hampshire.
To power our tricked-out delegate tracker, G. Elliott Morris actually built a model that uses political and demographic factors like these to calculate each candidate’s level of support in each state and territory. And lo and behold, as of Monday, that model thought New Hampshire was Haley’s best, and Trump’s second-worst, state in the entire country.
New Hampshire is Haley’s strongest state
Estimated support for former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the Republican primary contest in New Hampshire and subsequent voting states and territories, according to 538 modeling based on polls and demographics
New Hampshire 53.0% 31.2%
Idaho 53.0 22.8
Wyoming 53.1 22.8
South Carolina 62.5 21.8
Maine 56.4 20.6
North Dakota 60.9 19.9
Vermont 59.6 19.9
Massachusetts 61.6 18.2
Utah 53.9 18.0
Minnesota 53.9 17.9
Kansas 54.2 17.9
Oklahoma 54.6 17.6
Wisconsin 59.7 17.2
Mississippi 65.6 17.1
Michigan 63.3 17.0
Louisiana 65.8 16.9
District of Columbia 64.8 16.6
U.S. Virgin Islands 66.1 16.2
Delaware 63.2 16.2
Rhode Island 62.4 16.0
Oregon 62.4 16.0
Washington 62.4 16.0
Nebraska 62.4 16.0
Alaska 63.0 15.6
Hawaii 66.0 15.0
Alabama 68.7 14.9
Guam 66.6 14.6
Ohio 67.3 14.5
Georgia 66.1 14.4
Northern Mariana Islands 67.0 14.3
American Samoa 67.1 14.3
Pennsylvania 64.5 14.3
Arkansas 63.1 14.0
North Carolina 68.3 13.9
Kentucky 63.2 13.9
Connecticut 64.3 13.7
Illinois 65.6 13.7
West Virginia 63.3 13.5
Montana 63.4 13.5
New York 64.1 13.4
Virginia 66.6 13.2
South Dakota 59.6 13.1
Colorado 65.6 13.0
Indiana 66.1 12.8
Missouri 67.3 12.8
California 69.2 12.5
Arizona 67.6 12.0
Nevada 66.5 12.0
Maryland 65.8 11.5
New Mexico 68.1 11.2
Puerto Rico 69.4 11.1
New Jersey 67.8 10.8
Texas 70.7 10.7
Florida 65.7 10.4
Tennessee 75.1 8.1
SOURCES: POLLS, U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, PUBLIC RELIGION RESEARCH INSTITUTE, PEW RESEARCH CENTER
True, that model undershot Haley’s performance in New Hampshire by about 10 percentage points, but even if you give her a 10-point boost everywhere else, it doesn’t put her ahead of Trump. Simply put, if Haley couldn’t win in New Hampshire, she will have trouble winning anywhere — including her home state of South Carolina, where she has staked her campaign despite trailing Trump by over 30 points in the polls. And obviously, you can’t win a presidential nomination without winning a single state.
Of course, we can never rule out a dramatic twist in the race, caused by something like a health scare or Trump’s legal issues. But at this point, it would take something that dramatic to cost Trump the nomination — because if nothing changes, the results so far indicate that he will win every primary contest and virtually every delegate that is up for grabs.
