一份92页的订单发行上周五晚些时候，法官阿瑟·恩戈伦(Arthur Engoron)给唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)带来了法律和经济上的打击，这可能会永久损害将他推上总统宝座的商业帝国。
除了特朗普被命令支付的惊人的3.55亿美元——可能连本带利攀升至4.5亿美元以上——恩戈伦暂时剥夺了特朗普和他的儿子们领导自己的企业或申请融资的能力。
纽约总检察长利蒂夏·詹姆斯(Letitia James)称赞这些处罚是“确保这一欺诈行为无法继续下去”的有效方法。随着这位前总统在持续的法律斗争中展开代价高昂的总统竞选活动，这些处罚将使特朗普集团在法律、财务和人事方面陷入困境。
“我们将恢复工作，”特朗普周五誓言。“我们会上诉，我们会成功的，我认为因为坦率地说，如果我们不成功，纽约州就没了。”
特朗普的律师计划对这一裁决提出上诉，誓言更高一级的法院将推翻Engoron的裁决。
特朗普组织的一名发言人在一份声明中表示:“如果允许这一裁决成立，只会进一步加速公司继续逃离纽约。”
冗长的上诉
特朗普和他的律师已经发誓要将Engoron的裁决上诉到纽约第一司法部上诉部门。
去年，同一家法院暂停吊销特朗普的商业证书，从而在特朗普的案件中取得了初步胜利。Engoron在9月的简易判决裁决中下令吊销特朗普的商业证书。上周五，恩戈伦改变了对这一处罚的做法——取消了他过去的部分命令——但将特朗普集团置于独立监督下至少三年。
前联邦检察官乔什·纳夫塔利斯(Josh Naftalis)说:“法官采取的补救措施非常谨慎。”他表示，早期的处罚很可能会受到上诉的影响。
纳夫塔利斯说:“总统在上诉中否决(新裁决)也要困难得多。”
庭审律师瑞安·萨巴(Ryan Saba)表示，Engoron的冗长意见还严重依赖案件事实——包括每个证人证词中的冗长部分——这可能会在上诉中加强案件。
“这个法庭坐在离证人有一码远的地方，对证人有更清楚的了解，能够评估他们的可信度，”萨巴在陪审团审判期间谈到Engoron作为事实调查者的角色时说。“如果上诉是基于事实挑战的话，这份意见中的发现将很难被推翻。”
2024年2月16日，唐纳德·特朗普在他位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉歌庄园发表讲话。
丽贝卡·布莱克威尔/美联社
即使最初的上诉不成功，特朗普也可以要求纽约州最高法院纽约上诉法院介入，这可能会使上诉过程持续数年。虽然这种方法会给特朗普更多的时间来筹集罚款资金，但罚款将产生年利息，并且只会随着时间的推移而变得更昂贵。
特朗普的律师对他们未来的上诉表示有信心，称赞第一部过去限制该案行为诉讼时效的裁决。
“特朗普总统当然会上诉，并相信上诉庭最终会纠正一个与法律或现实脱节的审判法庭犯下的无数灾难性错误，”特朗普的律师克里斯·基斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。
不那么家族化的生意
尽管特朗普的律师在法庭上与Engoron的意见进行斗争，但这位前总统的同名企业也面临着自己的挑战-首先是缺乏领导力。
特朗普集团目前由高级副总裁小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr .)和埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)运营。上周五，Engoron禁止他们在两年内领导纽约公司，特朗普集团失去了高管。Engoron还禁止特朗普申请任何纽约银行的贷款，这严重限制了特朗普获得资金的机会。
纳夫塔利斯说:“他在人事层面受到压制，在资本层面也受到压制。”
根据特朗普最近披露的财务信息，这位前总统仍欠德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)钱，但从总部位于加州的Axos Bank获得了新贷款，这可能会为总统提供一个免受处罚的变通办法。
此外，根据Naftalis的说法，Engoron的决定为潜在的贷款人提供了一个危险信号，他们可能不信任特朗普集团编制的任何财务报表。
“我认为这实际上意味着银行不会愿意与他们做生意，因为他实际上胸前有一个红字，”纳夫塔利斯说。
Engoron命令法官芭芭拉·琼斯继续监督该公司，并为该公司任命一名合规总监，以加强对该公司的独立监督。除了琼斯过去的责任外，恩戈伦还下令，特朗普集团在向第三方发布任何财务披露之前，需要事先获得琼斯的批准。
潜在的现金短缺
如果特朗普的上诉未能成功限制Engoron的罚款，这位前总统可能无法找到现金来支付罚款，可能会迫使他出售一些珍贵的建筑。特朗普上个月还被要求在民事诉讼中向专栏作家E. Jean Carroll支付8330万美元，增加了他的财务义务。
“无论你有多少钱，这对任何人的整体流动性都是一个相当大的打击，”萨巴说。
伊利诺伊大学法学院教授罗伯特·劳利斯表示，即使特朗普在九个月后当选总统，如果他的欺诈审判上诉失败，他也不会面临破产。宣布破产不太可能解决财务问题，因为法律罚款通常不会免除。
“持有判决的人可以采取补救措施来迫使付款，你知道，从没收财产到拿走欠款人的工资，”劳利斯说。
Trump was fined $355 million and barred from his NY business temporarily. What happens now?
With a 92-page orderissuedlate Friday, Judge Arthur Engoron dealt Donald Trump a legal and financial blow that could permanently damage the business empire that propelled him to the presidency.
Beyond the staggering $355 million Trump was ordered to pay – likely to climb to over $450 million with interest – Engoron temporarily stripped Trump and his sons of the ability to lead their own businesses or apply for financing.
The penalties – which New York Attorney General Letitia James applauded as effective ways to "ensure this fraud cannot continue" – leave the Trump Organization in legal, financial, and personnel limbo, as the former president embarks on a costly presidential campaign amid his ongoing legal battles.
"We will get back to work," Trump vowed Friday. "We'll appeal, we'll be successful, I think because frankly, if we're not successful, New York State is gone."
Trump's lawyers plan to appeal the ruling, vowing that higher courts would reverse Engoron's ruling.
"If allowed to stand, this ruling will only further expedite the continuing exodus of companies from New York," a Trump Organization spokesperson said in a statement.
Lengthy appeal
Trump and his lawyers have already vowed to appeal Engoron's ruling to New York's Appellate Division, First Judicial Department.
That same court handed Trump an early victory in his case last year by pausing the cancellation of Trump's business certificates, which Engoron ordered in his September summary judgment ruling. On Friday, Engoron reversed course on that penalty – nullifying part of his past order – but placed the Trump Organization under an independent monitor for at least three years.
"That was a very carefully crafted remedy that the judge put in place," said former federal prosecutor Josh Naftalis, who said the early penalty was likely vulnerable to an appeal.
"It's also much harder for the president to get [the new ruling] thrown out on appeal," Naftalis said.
Engoron's lengthy opinion also leaned heavily on the facts of the case – including lengthy portions on the testimony from each witness – in a manner that could strengthen the case on appeal, according to trial attorney Ryan Saba.
"This court sat one yard away from the witnesses on the stand, had a clearer view of the witnesses and was able to assess their credibility," Saba said about Engoron's role as a factfinder during the jury trial. "The findings in this opinion, if the appeal is based upon a factual challenge, are going to be very difficult to overturn."
Even if the initial appeal is unsuccessful, Trump could ask New York's Court of Appeals – the state's highest court – to weigh in, possibly making the appeal a yearslong process. While that approach would give Trump more time to find money for the fine, the penalty will accrue annual interest and only becomes pricier over time.
Trump's lawyers have expressed confidence in their future appeal, lauding the First Department's past rulings limiting the statute of limitations for conduct in the case.
"President Trump will of course appeal and remains confident the Appellate Division will ultimately correct the innumerable and catastrophic errors made by a trial court untethered to the law or to reality," Trump's attorney Chris Kise told ABC News.
Not-so-family business
While Trump's lawyers fight Engoron's opinion in court, the former president's namesake business faces its own challenges -- beginning with a lack of leadership.
Currently run by senior vice presidents Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, the Trump Organization lost its top executives on Friday when Engoron banned them from leading New York corporations for two years. Engoron also barred Trump from applying to loans from any New York banks, severely limiting Trump's access to capital.
"He's being choked on a personnel level, and he's being choked on a capital level," Naftalis said.
According to Trump's most recent financial disclosure, the former president still owes money to Deutsche Bank but took new loans from California-based Axos Bank, potentially offering the president a workaround from the penalty.
Moreover, Engoron's decision presents a red flag for potential lenders who might distrust any financial statement prepared by the Trump Organization, according to Naftalis.
"I think practically what this means is that a bank is not going to want to do business with them because he effectively has a scarlet letter on his chest," Naftalis said.
Engoron ordered Judge Barbara Jones to continue monitoring the company as well as appoint a director of compliance for the company, increasing the independent oversight of the company. In addition to Jones’ past responsibilities, Engoron ordered that the Trump Organization would need to get prior approval from Jones before issuing any financial disclosure to a third party.
Potential cash crunch
If Trump's appeal is unsuccessful in limiting the fines imposed by Engoron, the former president might be unable to find the cash to cover the fine, potentially forcing him to sell off some of his prized buildings. Trump also was ordered to pay columnist E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million last month in a civil suit, adding to his financial obligations.
"That's a pretty significant hit towards anybody's overall liquidity, regardless of the total amount of money that you have," Saba said.
Even if Trump is elected president in nine months, he faces no way out of the disgorgement if his fraud trial appeal fails -- and declaring bankruptcy would be unlikely to resolve the financial troubles since legal fines are generally not dischargeable, according to Illinois College of Law Professor Robert Lawless.
"There are remedies the person holding the judgment can do to force payment, everything from, you know, seizing property to taking the wages of the person that owes the money," Lawless said.
