最近的一天，距离关闭的伯利恒钢铁厂仅几个街区的西班牙语中心利哈伊谷热闹非凡，许多老年人正在吃午餐。在楼下看不见的地方，络绎不绝的游客正在其巨大的食品储藏室里购物。
在过去的七个月里，茶水间的访客数量增加了三分之一以上。该中心的执行主任雷蒙德·圣地亚哥认为，这是他在过去几年中感受到的一个鲜明迹象:该地区拉丁裔社区的许多人都在努力满足自己的基本需求。
包括伯利恒在内的北安普顿县是宾夕法尼亚州的传统风向标，宾夕法尼亚州是最重要的总统摇摆州之一，拉丁裔是总统联盟的重要组成部分乔·拜登在开始第二个任期的竞选时，他试图重建。在这种情况下，这位民主党人可能会在销售其连任战略的关键部分方面面临挑战。
他在此前访问宾夕法尼亚州时传达的信息之一是，这位前总统唐纳德·特朗普共和党提名的领跑者对美国民主构成威胁。拜登希望这一信息能够激励四年前投票的选民，当时北安普顿县在2016年以微弱优势支持特朗普后勉强转向他。
根据他与拉美裔中心访客的互动，圣地亚哥不太确定。在那里，主导话题的是食品价格和经济适用房的缺乏。
“我认为很多人已经对这种信息免疫了，它不会像这次一样干净利落地着陆选举就像2020年一样。如果他继续宣传这一信息，可能会让选民们望而却步。"
拜登在2024年的首次竞选活动中选择了宾夕法尼亚州福奇谷附近的一个地点，该地点具有该国为自由而斗争的深刻象征意义，他将特朗普描绘为美国的严重威胁，并将大选描述为民主能否生存的“全部”。这是他在费城独立大厅2022年中期选举前发出的类似信息，美国的建国文件就是在这里创建的。拜登警告称，特朗普及其追随者威胁到了“我们共和国的根本基础”。
拜登在初选初期延续了这一主题，他告诉支持者赢得第二个任期对于保持美国的民主传统至关重要。
在几天的时间里，美联社采访了北安普顿县的一批选民，询问拜登围绕民主命运发出的信息是否引起了共鸣。这些选民代表了拜登再次赢得宾夕法尼亚州所需的部分联盟——黑人选民、拉丁裔选民、无党派人士和两党的温和派。
他们最主要的反应是:总统警告说，特朗普第二次担任总统将粉碎宪法规范并摧毁民主制度，这并不能单独激励他们并让他们投票。
与美国其他大部分地区的人一样，大多数受访者倾向于避免2020年大选的复赛，其中几名受访者表示，他们会认真考虑一位有强烈信息和获胜机会的严肃的第三方候选人。
74岁的伊芙琳·费尔明(Evelyn Fermin)经常去利哈伊拉美裔中心(Lehigh Spanish center)，她在新泽西州度过了大半辈子后，已经在该县生活了两年。自2021年1月6日以来，她对特朗普的看法就已经确定，当时这位前总统的支持者冲进美国国会大厦，以暴力手段阻止国会认证拜登的胜利。但她认为，那一天的提醒不足以在11月说服选民。
对于父母从多米尼加共和国移民过来的女儿来说，她关心的是边境安全和海外消费。
她说:“我认为我们应该为我们的人民使用它，而不是把它送到国外去。”
作为一名支持儿子努力完成学业成为律师的离婚母亲，她也不支持拜登免除学生贷款债务的尝试:“如果我有能力这样做，我觉得他们应该这样做。”
44岁的柯特·鲍尔奇在卫生保健行业，现在是一个全职爸爸。他和他5岁的女儿在海勒敦的家中忍受着两个小时的学校延迟，海勒敦位于该县更偏远的地区。他登记为共和党人，这样他就可以在初选中投票，但他称自己更倾向于自由意志主义。
鲍尔奇说，当双方警告对方“对国家前进的基本面构成威胁或危险”时，双方发出的信息“相当有害”。
他在过去的两次选举中支持特朗普，但今年对考虑其他候选人持开放态度，特别是如果他认为有一个有吸引力的第三方或独立候选人。鲍尔奇认为，关于特朗普可能连任的可怕警告被夸大了。鲍尔奇指出，即使在新冠肺炎疫情期间，川普也让各州自行决定如何处理。
“我理解这种论调，‘哦，他将成为法西斯独裁者，’”鲍尔奇说。“我不认为这是一个让人们去投票的信息。我认为人们没有理由认为他们需要害怕唐纳德·特朗普。”
克里斯蒂安·米勒(Christian Miller)一生都是民主党人，但由于对政治僵局感到沮丧，并觉得随着年龄的增长，他越来越保守，因此在2022年成为无党派人士。
他说，他可能有一天会考虑转投共和党，但只要特朗普还在领导共和党，他就不会这么做。这并不是因为担心特朗普如果赢得第二个任期会成为独裁者。
住在拿撒勒的53岁的银行高管米勒说:“我不知道我对这件事的担心程度有多深。“我认为这些机构是安全的，有足够的实力应对挑战。”
米勒列举了特朗普及其盟友试图推翻2020年总统选举结果的数十次失败的法庭挑战，作为机构坚持立场的例子。
调查显示人们对民主状况感到担忧，但尚不清楚这将如何在11月的选举中体现出来。拜登竞选团队的一名发言人表示，民主信息是竞选活动的核心，但不是竞选团队用来接触选民的唯一信息。保护堕胎权利和争取更高的工资将是总统竞选的重要议题之一。
北安普顿县，尤其是伯利恒，已经慢慢从当地钢铁行业崩溃后的经济冲击中恢复过来。该厂生产了大萧条时期建造金门大桥的钢材，十年后，在第二次世界大战期间，该厂成为美国最大的造船厂。
近30年前沉寂的高炉坐落在利哈伊河畔，几英里外仍清晰可见。但伯利恒近年来一直在复苏，因为它已发展成为医疗保健和科技公司的中心。新商店、艺术中心、博物馆、表演艺术舞台和赌场以及其他发展项目为这座风景如画的城市增添了活力，这座城市点缀着可追溯到18世纪的历史建筑。
北安普顿也是历史的领头羊。艾伦镇穆伦伯格大学(Muhlenberg University)政治学教授兼公共舆论研究所所长克里斯托弗·博里克(Christopher Borick)表示，随着该县在总统选举中获胜，该州也随之落败。他们上一次分裂是在1948年，当时该县投票支持民主党人哈里·杜鲁门，但该州支持共和党人托马斯·杜威。
“这是你能找到的最伟大的基准县，”博里克说。
拜登在2020年险胜该县，四年前特朗普曾险胜民主党人希拉里·克林顿。
69岁的安娜·儿玉是那种传统上在两党之间摇摆不定的选民。
她在俄亥俄州的一个共和党家庭中长大，但在大学期间改变了党派。她回忆说，自1977年搬到利哈伊山谷以来，她经常跨越党派界限投票——直到2016年特朗普首次竞选总统时，她直接投了民主党的票。
儿玉遇到的人没有听拜登关于特朗普统治下黑暗未来的信息。相反，她希望他更多地谈论他为改善经济和加强与欧洲的关系所做的工作。她关注了拜登今年早些时候对附近城镇埃默斯的访问，他在当地商店停留，讨论了支持小企业的重要性。
她说，拜登在宣传积极信息时，似乎与人们的联系更好，而不是她认为在秋季不会激励人们的消极信息。
“这就是我觉得它有吸引力的地方——看看我们可以一起做什么，”这位艺术家和前教师说，他正在伯利恒的小屋咖啡馆喝咖啡。“这一信息引起了我和我认识的人的共鸣。”
对于当地全美有色人种协进会90岁的主席埃丝特·李来说，威胁民主的信息并没有在她接触的人中引起多大的关注。她已经计划投票，但不是因为她害怕另一个特朗普当选总统。
“我们已经知道他是谁，”她说。
她认为，让黑人选民参与进来将需要拜登付出更多努力，因为到目前为止，他的竞选信息还没有引起共鸣。她质疑北安普顿县的黑人社区是否是目标受众:“我没有看到这方面的证据，”她说。
李说，她在她的圈子里听到最多的问题是无家可归:“这是第一位的，”她说，并补充说资源似乎不足以解决当地的问题。她说，与之配套的是经济适用房。
她说，“在拜登的竞选活动中，他们需要进一步深入人心”。
在利哈伊中心，69岁的吉列尔莫·洛佩兹回忆起他与该地区的深厚关系以及在伯利恒钢铁厂工作的大家庭的许多成员。他在这家工厂工作了27年，而他的父亲在那里工作了36年。
他现在是该中心的董事会成员，也是拉丁裔社区的当地领袖。这位民主党人表示他倾向于独立，他计划投票给拜登，部分原因是他认为特朗普从2015年竞选公告开始的言论将拉丁裔和其他少数族裔作为目标。
“这只是告诉我，对像我这样的人有这么多被误导的仇恨，”他说。
但洛佩兹认为，对该县的许多工人阶级选民来说，恐惧和特朗普危及美国民主的信息基本上毫无意义。他说，他们关心的是找到高薪的稳定工作。
“实际上，我认为这损害了投票，”他在谈到民主警告时说。那些“埋头苦干去工作”的普通人，我不认为这能激励他们。我认为这让他们感到害怕，并冻结了他们。”
Saving democracy is central to Biden's campaign. Will it resonate with voters?
Hispanic Center Lehigh Valley was bustling on a recent day with scores of older people eating lunch. Downstairs, out of sight, a constant stream of visitors was shopping in its massive food pantry.
Over the past seven months, the number visitors to the pantry has risen by more than a third. The center's executive director, Raymond Santiago, sees that as a stark sign of something he has felt over the past couple years: Many in the area's Latino community are struggling to meet their basic needs.
Northampton County, which includes Bethlehem, is a traditional bellwether for Pennsylvania, one of the most important presidential swing states, and Latinos are a key part of the coalition that PresidentJoe Bidenis trying rebuild as he embarks on his campaign for a second term. In doing so, the Democrat might have challenges selling a crucial part of his reelection strategy.
One of the messages he has delivered in previous visits to Pennsylvania is that former PresidentDonald Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, is a danger to American democracy. Biden is hoping that message energizes the same voters who turned out four years ago, when Northampton County narrowly flipped to him after supporting Trump by a thin margin in 2016.
Based on his interactions with visitors to the Hispanic center, Santiago isn't so sure. It's the price of groceries and lack of affordable housing that dominate conversations there.
“I think so many people are already immune to that messaging, it won’t land as cleanly thiselectionas it did in 2020,” he said. “If he keeps pushing that message, it might turn voters away."
Biden chose a location near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, with its deep symbolism for the country's struggle for freedom, for his initial campaign event for 2024, portraying Trump as a grave threat to America and describing the general election as “all about” whether democracy can survive. It was a message similar to one he gave before the 2022 midterm elections at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, where the nation's founding documents were created. Biden warned that Trump and his followers threatened “the very foundation of our republic."
Biden has continued the theme during the early primary season, telling supporters winning a second term is essential for maintaining the country's democratic traditions.
Over the course of several days, The Associated Press interviewed a cross section of voters in Northampton County to ask whether Biden's messaging around the fate of democracy was resonating. These voters represented parts of the very coalition Biden will need to win Pennsylvania again — Black voters, Latinos, independents and moderates from both parties.
Their overarching response: The president’s warning that a second Trump presidency will shred constitutional norms and destroy democratic institutions is not one that, alone, will motivate them and get them out to vote.
Like people across much of the rest of the country, most of those interviewed would prefer avoiding a rematch of the 2020 contest, and several suggested they would seriously consider a serious third-party candidate with a strong message and a chance of winning.
Evelyn Fermin, 74, who regularly visits the Lehigh Hispanic center, has lived in the county for two years after spending most of her life in New Jersey. Her opinion about Trump has been set since Jan. 6, 2021, when the former president’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in a violent bid to stop Congress from certifying Biden’s win. But she doesn’t think reminders of that day will be sufficient to persuade voters in November.
For the daughter of parents who immigrated from the Dominican Republic, her concerns are border security and spending abroad.
“Rather than sending it out to foreign countries, I think we should use it for our people,” she said.
As a divorced mother who supported her son as he worked his way through school to become a lawyer, she also doesn’t support Biden’s attempt to waive student loan debt: “If I was able to to do it, I feel that they should.”
Curt Balch, 44, worked in thehealth careindustry and is now a stay-at-home dad. He was weathering a two-hour school delay with his 5-year-old daughter in his home in Hellertown, in a more rural part of the county. He registered Republican so he could vote in primaries, but describes himself as more libertarian.
Balch said the messaging by both sides is “pretty toxic” when they warn that the other is “a threat or a danger to the fundamentals of the country moving forward."
He supported Trump in the past two elections but is open to considering other candidates this year, especially if he thinks there is an appealing third-party or independent candidate. Balch believes the dire warnings about a potential second Trump term are overblown. Balch notes that even during the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump let states decide for themselves how to handle it.
“I understand the rhetoric, ‘Oh, he’s going to be a fascist dictator,’” Balch said. “I don’t think it’s a message that’s getting people to the polls. I don’t think people are legitimately thinking that they need to be afraid of Donald Trump."
Christian Miller was a lifelong Democrat but became an independent in 2022 out of frustration with political gridlock and a sense that as he got older, he was growing more conservative.
He said he might one day consider switching to the Republican Party, but not as long as Trump is leading it. That's not out of any worry that Trump would become a dictator if he wins a second term.
“I don’t know that I fear it as much as it’s being made out to be in the media from either side,” said Miller, a 53-year-old bank executive who lives in Nazareth. “I feel that the institutions are safe and and are strong enough to withstand the challenges.”
Miller cited the dozens of failed court challenges seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential results by Trump and his allies as an example of the institutions holding firm.
Surveys indicate concern about the state of democracy, but it’s not clear how that will translate in November’s election. A Biden campaign spokesperson said the democracy message is central to the campaign but it is not the only one the campaign will use to reach voters. Protecting abortion rights and fighting for higher wages will be among the issues essential to the president's pitch.
Northampton County, especially Bethlehem, has been slowly emerging from the economic shock that followed the collapse of the local steel industry. The plant produced the steel that built the Golden Gate Bridge during the Great Depression and a decade later, during World War II, became the country's largest shipbuilder.
The blast furnaces, which fell silent nearly 30 years ago, are still visible for miles as they sit alongside the Lehigh River. But Bethlehem has been enjoying a revival in recent years as it has evolved into a hub for health care and technology companies. New shops, an art center, museum, performing arts stage and a casino, among other developments, have added vibrancy to a picturesque city dotted with historical structures dating to the 18th century.
Northampton also is a historical bellwether. As the county has gone in the presidential election, so has the state, said Christopher Borick, a political science professor and director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg University in Allentown. The last time they split was 1948, when the county voted for Democrat Harry Truman but the state went for Republican Thomas Dewey.
“It’s about as great a benchmark county as you’ll ever find,” Borick said.
Biden narrowly carried the county in 2020, four years after Trump had narrowly prevailed in his victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Anna Kodama, 69, is the type of voter who traditionally has swung back and forth between the parties.
She grew up in a Republican household in Ohio but switched parties during college. She recalls voting across party lines frequently since she moved to the Lehigh Valley in 1977 — until 2016 when Trump was making his first run for the presidency and she voted a straight ticket for Democrats.
The people Kodama encounters are not listening to Biden's messages about a dark future under Trump. Instead, she would like him to speak more about what he is doing to improve the economy and forge stronger ties with Europe. She paid attention to a Biden visit earlier this year to a nearby town, Emmaus, where he stopped at local stores to discuss the importance of supporting small businesses.
She said Biden seems to connect better with people when he promotes a positive message, rather than a negative one that she believes will not motivate people in the fall.
“That’s where I find it compelling — look what we can do together,” said the artist and former teacher who was sipping coffee at Café the Lodge in Bethlehem. “That message resonates with me and with people I know.”
For Esther Lee, the 90-year-old president of the local NAACP, the threat-to-democracy message is not generating much concern among the people she contacts. She already plans to vote, but not because she is fearful of another Trump presidency.
“We already know who he is,” she said.
Getting Black voters engaged is going to take more from Biden, she believes, because so far his campaign messages have not resonated. She questions whether the Black community in Northampton County is the target audience: “I’m not seeing evidence of it,” she said.
Lee said the issue she hears about most in her circle is homelessness: “It’s No. 1,” she said, adding that the resources don’t seem to be sufficient to address the local problem. The companion to that, she said, is affordable housing.
“With Biden's campaign, they need to reach down further,” with the messaging, she said.
At the Lehigh center, Guillermo Lopez Jr., 69, recalls his deep ties to the area and the many members of his extended family who worked at Bethlehem Steel. He worked at the plant for 27 years, following a father who worked there for 36.
He is now on the center's board of directors and a local leader in the Latino community. A Democrat who said he leans independent, he plans to vote for Biden in part because of how he thought Trump's rhetoric, beginning with is campaign announcement in 2015, made targets of Latinos and other minorities.
"It just speaks to me that there’s so much misguided hatred toward people like me,” he said.
But Lopez thinks messages of fear and Trump imperiling American democracy are essentially meaningless for many of the county's working class voters. Their concern, he said, is finding steady work with good pay.
“I actually think that harms the vote,” he said of the democracy warnings. The average person who “just puts their nose to the grindstone and goes to work, I don’t think that motivates them. I think it scares them and freezes them.”
