下周，15个州(加上美属萨摩亚!)将在超级星期二举行初选，这是总统选举年初选日历中最繁忙的一天。但是总统，总统先生——真正的主要行动是在选票的下方!参议院、众议院和州长的竞选都在升温，值得一看。
我们今天将在南方开始我们的三部分超级星期二预告，在北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州有几场(好的，12场)著名的比赛。明天，我们将解决阿拉巴马州和加利福尼亚州的问题，然后我们将在下周初转向总统初选。废话不多说，下面是孤星州和塔尔脚跟州最激动人心和竞争最激烈的初选。
北卡罗来纳州
值得关注的比赛:总督;第一、第六、第八、第十和第十三国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上7:30
周二焦油脚跟州最大的比赛管理者—不是特别有竞争力。民主党和共和党的初选都有明显的领跑者。对于共和党来说，是副州长马克·罗宾逊，一位退伍军人和虔诚的基督徒，他有特朗普式的习惯坦率地说—经常转向攻击性或偏执的语言，这使他陷入困境处在困难(或麻烦、耻辱)的情境。民主党的领先者是司法部长乔什·斯坦，他筹集的资金比任何一方的候选人都多。
不过，这场比赛仍然值得关注，因为它将11月到来时保持竞争力。尽管北卡罗莱纳州在总统层面倾向于共和党，但七年来一直有一位民主党州长，对州议会的共和党多数派起到制衡作用(或衬托作用，取决于你的观点)两院的绝对多数去年)。
在该州的国会地图被修改后，美国众议院的初选变得更加激烈今年完全重画让共和党获得优势。因此，北卡罗来纳州的第一国会选区一个巨大的，主要是农村的地区，横跨22个县，包括很高比例的黑人居民，将成为该州的唯一的竞争性国会竞选今年秋天。这个地区自1883年以来从未选举过共和党人但是新地图重新划分了第一选区，使其成为胜负难料的选区。
共和党初选有两名候选人。桑迪·史密斯是当地政坛的常客，此前曾两次竞选公职，并在2022年竞选这一席位时得到前总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持(未成功)。她有点像煽动者说她在华盛顿特区。在1月6日国会大厦遇袭期间，她在期中考试中成为头条新闻当她的前夫指控她家暴时。
另一位候选人是美国陆军退役上校劳里·巴克豪特，她是一位富有的女商人，最近移居到该州超过100万美元她自己的钱来支持她的竞选。建制派支持的国会领导基金支撑架可能是因为担心史密斯作为一个更极端的候选人的弱点。与此同时，现任民主党众议员唐·戴维斯可能希望在秋季与史密斯交锋。
北卡罗来纳州的第六区格林斯伯勒周围的地区目前由民主党众议员凯西·曼宁代表——但她并不寻求连任，在新地图下该地区变得更红后，也没有民主党人竞选取代她。相反，六名共和党人正在共和党不同派系之间的斗争中争夺11月的选票。
前绿色贝雷帽克里斯蒂安·卡斯特利(Christian Castelli)在2022年作为共和党提名人竞选这一席位后，可能还有一些残留的名字。前众议员马克·沃克是一名牧师，他希望从2015年到2021年收回他所代表的地区(在不同的边界下)得到了CPAC的支持。北卡罗来纳州立大学前外接手博·海因斯(Bo Hines)在2022年罗利地区第13区竞选失败后再次竞选国会议员。海因斯得到了保守派增长俱乐部的支持。与此同时，特朗普支持曾为参议员泰德·巴德工作的游说者艾迪森·麦克道尔。整形外科医生玛丽·安·康托吉安尼斯和高点市市长杰伊·瓦格纳也参加了这场拥挤的竞选。
共和党初选取代共和党众议员丹·毕晓普(谁是竞选州检察长)深红色第八区夏洛特之外也吸引了6名候选人。然而，有两家公司很可能成为领跑者。州众议员约翰·布拉德福德投入130万美元他正与浸礼会牧师马克·哈里斯对抗。
布拉德福德一直在竞选州财政部长，但是参加国会竞选去年年底。与此同时，哈里斯在2018年国会获胜后正在寻求救赎被赶出去了因为有人指控他的竞选顾问犯有缺席选票欺诈罪。哈里斯从未受到刑事指控，现在他表示自己才是真正的受害者。
众议员帕特里克·麦克亨利(戴领结的国会议员，你可能还记得，担任临时议长去年10月众议院没有领袖时)同样在去年年底宣布不会寻求连任，打开他坚实的红色第10区。虽然有五名候选人竞选共和党提名，但有两个名字特别引人注目。
州众议员格雷·米尔斯曾两次代表该地区出席大会(2009-2013年和2021年至今)。他在移民问题上采取强硬立场，部分是为了攻击和区别于领跑者帕特·哈里根。枪支制造商哈里根是2022年民主党第14选区的共和党提名人。当时，他宣扬自己的信念，即让无证移民获得公民身份将驱逐出境比作纳粹德国使用的策略，一个评论米尔斯和其他人已经重新露面试图把哈里根描绘成在移民问题上软弱的人。
最后，在第13区是又一个现任国会议员选择不寻求连任的地区;首任民主党众议员威利·尼克尔选择不再参选在重新划分选区后，民主党人几乎无法赢得他的席位。该席位的共和党初选吸引了不少于14名候选人(只有一名民主党人参选)。最著名的候选人包括弗雷德·冯·卡农，一位曾两次竞选国会议员的商人;凯利·道特里(Kelly Daughtry)，一位在2022年共和党初选中排名第三的律师;前联邦检察官布拉德·克诺特;以及在2022年初选中排名第二的当地商人德万·巴伯。这场选举看起来像一场跳球，如果没有候选人能够获得30%的选票，甚至可能在5月14日进行决选。
得克萨斯州
值得关注的比赛:参议院;第7、12、18、26和32国会选区
投票结束:该州大部分地区东部时间晚上8点，西端地区东部时间晚上9点
今年最有趣的比赛之一是参议院在德克萨斯州。民主党是希望将特德·克鲁兹参议员赶下台今年秋天在孤星州，这将是一个挑战，但在仍然倾向于共和党的州未必无法实现(你可能还记得前众议员贝托·奥鲁克相差不到3个百分点克鲁兹的照片)。因此，民主党参议员初选吸引了很多关注—和现金.
九名候选人参加竞选，其中两人值得注意。领跑者是众议员科林·奥尔雷德(Colin Allred)，他是前NFL球员和民权律师，自2019年以来一直代表达拉斯地区。Allred筹集了最多的资金(总计2100万美元)，并吸引了交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格的丈夫等党内有影响力的人士的捐款。他有翻转共和党席位的记录:第一次当选国会议员时，奥尔雷德以7个百分点的优势击败了11届现任议员。
同样得势的还有州参议员罗兰·古铁雷斯对乌瓦尔迪学校枪击案的强烈反应2022年，这发生在他的辖区。古铁雷斯花了一年多时间推动他的议员同事采取更多措施应对枪击事件，例如调查警方缺乏回应的情况和禁止攻击性武器。他也有很长的任职生涯，在当选州参议员之前曾在州议会任职13年，并且在历史上的红色区域也取得了胜利。在…期间奥尔雷德在民调中领先古铁雷斯在如此拥挤的情况下，在我们确定谁将在11月挑战克鲁兹之前，初选有可能在5月28日进行决选。
德克萨斯州也有很多令人感兴趣的众议院初选。在……里第七国会选区民主党众议员利齐·弗莱彻(Lizzie Fletcher)可能预计，在她的休斯顿地区选区重新划分选区后，她的选区最初更像是一个摇摆席位，在重新划分选区后成为安全的民主党选区。但是弗莱彻是中间派新民主党联盟的成员，他正面临来自左翼的挑战，后者希望蓝区更喜欢更进步的候选人。
这位候选人佩尔韦兹·阿格万(Pervez Agwan)的势头越来越大，在没有任何个人捐款或政治行动委员会捐款的情况下筹集了100多万美元，并吸引了当地的美国民主社会主义者协会(Democratic Socialists of America)和日出分会的支持。但他的竞选活动可能已经被不可挽回地打乱了对阿格万和高级竞选工作人员的性骚扰指控和他的组织主管被捕。A最近的民意调查休斯顿大学的数据显示弗莱彻以67分的优势击败了阿格万。
在沃思堡北部，81岁的共和党众议员凯·格兰杰将今年年底退休在国会任职近30年后，引发了共和党内取代她的争夺战第12区。五名共和党人正在争夺提名，但两位领先者是共和党未来熟悉的斗争的缩影:老派的注重结果的保守主义与MAGA的煽动性民粹主义。
在另一个时代，州众议员克雷格·戈德曼将是格兰杰的自然继任者。自2013年以来，高盛一直在州众议院代表该地区，他是共和党党团主席，拥有可靠的保守派投票记录。他得到了州长格雷格·阿博特(Greg Abbott)和前州长里克·佩里(Rick Perry)等共和党重量级人物的支持。他也是众议院共和党人大多数投票弹劾支持特朗普的州司法部长肯·帕克斯顿被指控滥用职权帮助朋友和捐赠者。这引起了帕克斯顿的愤怒，他支持高盛最大的竞争对手:当地企业主约翰·奥谢。奥谢采取明显更特朗普化的策略他说，如果当选，他会考虑加入极右翼的众议院自由核心小组，并发表声明称美国正走在“全面发展的文化新马克思主义”的道路上。
在那边第18区民主党众议员希拉·李庚翔正面临前休斯顿市议员阿曼达·爱德华兹的严峻挑战。74岁的李庚翔自1995年以来一直代表该地区，如果不是因为他的支持，他可能会轻松地连续第16次当选去年命运多舛的休斯顿市长竞选。当李庚翔将时间、金钱和精力投入到她的市长竞选中时，她的后起之秀挑战者(曾在李庚翔实习)正忙于打造她的国会竞选活动，这位经验丰富的国会女议员不得不迎头赶上。最近的一次休斯顿大学民意调查将爱德华兹置于李庚翔的攻击范围之内。
在共和党的竞选中第26区为了取代即将退休的众议员迈克尔·伯吉斯，两名极右翼候选人领导着11名候选人。其中一个是迪内希·帝索萨30岁的女婿布兰登·吉尔，这位极右翼评论员散布阴谋论，称2020年大选与他的选举一起被偷走了非常不准确的电影吉尔在他的网站上大力宣传的《2000匹骡子》。另一个是南湖市长约翰·赫夫曼，他自己也有选举错误信息的历史。南湖有获得全国关注这些年来欺凌和种族主义问题在学校系统中。这个深红色地区是共和党的大本营，因此无论谁赢得初选，都几乎肯定会取代伯吉斯在国会的位置(尽管当被问及竞选时，伯吉斯告诉德克萨斯论坛报、“没有人能取代我!”).
当奥尔雷德竞选参议员时，他所在的达拉斯地区第32区这是一个拥挤的民主党领域。总共有10名候选人参加竞选，不过其中有两人似乎领先:州众议员朱莉·约翰逊和创伤外科医生布莱恩·威廉斯。约翰逊在州议会任职期间以及作为当地民主党组织者和活动家在该地区都很有名。约翰逊是同性恋性少数群体+核心小组成员，致力于阻止反性少数群体+立法在这个州。如果当选国会议员，她将是第一位在南方州公开当选的性少数群体+众议员。与此同时，威廉姆斯是参议员克里斯·墨菲(Chris Murphy)的前健康政策顾问，并致力于2022年联邦枪支安全立法——两党共同制定的《更安全社区法案》(Safer Communities Act)。两位候选人都有强烈的政治诚意和进步的政纲，可能会吸引多元化的蓝色选区。但是有这么多候选人，这又是一次可能进入决选的初选。
12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina
Next week, 15 states (plus American Samoa!) are holding primary elections on Super Tuesday, the busiest day in the primary calendar in presidential election years. But president, schmesident — the real primary action is further down the ballot! Races for the Senate, House and governor are all heating up and worth a look.
We’ll start our three-part Super Tuesday preview today in the South, with a few (OK, 12) notable races in North Carolina and Texas. Tomorrow, we’ll tackle Alabama and California, then we’ll turn to the presidential primary early next week. So without further ado, here are the most exciting and contested primary races in the Lone Star and Tar Heel states.
North Carolina
Races to watch:Governor; 1st, 6th, 8th, 10th and 13th congressional districts
Polls close:7:30 p.m. Eastern
The biggest race in the Tar Heel State on Tuesday — forgovernor— is not particularly competitive. Both the Democratic and the Republican primaries have a clear front-runner. For the GOP, it’s Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, an Army veteran and devout Christian who has a Trumpian habit ofspeaking candidly— often veering into offensive or bigoted language, which has landed himin hot water. The frontrunner for the Democrats is Attorney General Josh Stein, who has raised more funds than any candidate on either side.
This race is still worth keeping an eye on, though, because itwillbe competitive come November. Despite its Republican lean on the presidential level, North Carolina has had a Democratic governor for seven years, serving as a counterweight (or foil, depending on your point of view) to the state legislature’s Republican majority (which became asupermajority in both chamberslast year).
The primaries get spicier in races for the U.S. House, after the state’s congressional map wascompletely redrawn this yearto give Republicans an advantage. As a result, North Carolina’s1st Congressional District— a huge, mostly rural district that spans 22 counties and includes a high proportion of Black residents — is set to be the state’sonly competitive congressional racethis fall. This districthasn’t elected a Republican since 1883, but the new maps redrew the 1st District in such a way to make it a toss-up.
The GOP primary has two candidates. Sandy Smith, a MAGA fixture in local politics, has run for office twice before and was endorsed by former President Donald Trump when she ran (unsuccessfully) for this seat in 2022. She’s a bit of a firebrand whosaid she was in Washington, D.C., during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and shedrew headlines in the midtermswhen her ex-husband accused her of domestic violence.
The other candidate is retired U.S. Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a wealthy businesswoman and recent transplant to the state who has spentmore than $1 millionof her own money boosting her campaign. The establishment-backed Congressional Leadership Fund issupporting Buckhout, likely due to fears about Smith’s weaknesses as a more extreme candidate. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis, meanwhile, is probably hoping to face Smith in the fall.
North Carolina’s6th District, which surrounds Greensboro, is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning — but she isn’t seeking reelection, and no Democrats are running to replace her after the district became much redder under the new maps. Instead, six Republicans are duking it out to be on the ballot in November in a battle among different factions of the GOP.
Former Green Beret Christian Castelli may have some residual name recognition after running as the Republican nominee for this seat in 2022. Former Rep. Mark Walker, a pastor, is hoping to reclaim the district he represented (under different boundaries) from 2015 to 2021 andhas been endorsed by CPAC. Bo Hines, a former wide receiver for North Carolina State University, is running for Congress again after a failed bid for the Raleigh-area 13th District in 2022. Hines has the endorsement of the conservative Club for Growth. Trump, meanwhile, is backing Addison McDowell, a lobbyist who previously worked for Sen. Ted Budd. Plastic surgeon Mary Ann Contogiannis and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner are also running in this packed race.
The GOP primary to replace Republican Rep. Dan Bishop (who isrunning for state attorney general) in the deep-red8th Districtoutside Charlotte has also attracted six candidates. However, two have emerged as the likely frontrunners. State Rep. John Bradford, who haspoured $1.3 millionof his own money into his campaign, is squaring off against Baptist minister Mark Harris.
Bradford had been running for state treasurer butjumped into the congressional raceat the end of last year. Harris, meanwhile, is seeking redemption after his 2018 congressional winwas thrown outdue to allegations that a consultant for his campaigncommitted absentee-ballot fraud. Harris was never criminally charged and now says he was the true victim.
Rep. Patrick McHenry (the bowtie-bedecked congressman who, you may remember,served as speaker pro temporewhen the House was without a leader this past October) likewise announced at the end of last year that hewould not seek reelection, opening up his solidly red10th District. While five candidates are running for the GOP nomination, two names in particular are drawing the most attention.
State Rep. Grey Mills has represented the region in the General Assembly twice (2009-2013 and 2021-present). He’s taken a hardline stance on immigration in part to attack and differentiate himself from frontrunner Pat Harrigan. Harrigan, a gun manufacturer, was the Republican nominee in the then-more Democratic 14th District in 2022. At that time, he promoted his belief in a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants andcompared deportation to tactics used in Nazi Germany, a comment thatMills and others have resurfacedto try to paint Harrigan as soft on immigration.
Finally, the13th Districtis yet another district where the sitting member of Congress opted not to seek reelection; first-term Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickelopted not to run againafter redistricting made his seat virtually unwinnable for a Democrat. The GOP primary for this seat has attracted no fewer than 14 candidates (just one Democrat is running). Among the most prominent candidates are Fred Von Canon, a businessman who has made two prior runs for Congress; Kelly Daughtry, an attorney who came in third in the Republican primary in 2022; Brad Knott, a former federal prosecutor; and DeVan Barbour, a local businessman who came in second in that 2022 primary. This race looks like a jump ball and may even go to a May 14 runoff if none of the candidates can clear 30 percent of the vote.
Texas
Races to watch:Senate; 7th, 12th, 18th, 26th and 32nd congressional districts
Polls close:8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 9 p.m. Eastern in the western tip
Among the most interesting races to watch this year is for theSenatein Texas. Democrats arehoping to unseat Sen. Ted Cruzin the Lone Star State this fall, which will be a challenge, but not necessarily out of reach in the still-Republican-leaning state (you may recall former Rep. Beto O’Roukecame within 3 percentage pointsof Cruz back in 2018). As such, the Democratic primary for Senate has attracted a lot of attention —and cash.
Nine candidates are running, two of whom are noteworthy. The front-runner is Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney who has represented the Dallas area since 2019. Allred has raised the most funds (to the tune of $21 million) and attracted donations from party influencers like Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s husband. And he has a track record of flipping Republican seats: When first elected to Congress, Allred ousted an 11-term incumbent by 7 points.
Also gaining steam is state Sen. Roland Gutierrez, who gained prominence for hispassionate response to the Uvalde school shootingin 2022, which happened in his district. Gutierrez has spent more than a year pushing his fellow lawmakers to do more to respond to the shooting, such asinvestigating the lack of police responseandbanning assault weapons. He too has a long career in office, having served in the state House for 13 years before being elected to the state Senate, and also has won in historically red areas. WhileAllred is lapping Gutierrez in polling, with such a crowded field, there is a chance the primary could go to a May 28 runoff before we know for sure who will be challenging Cruz come November.
Texas has plenty of House primaries of interest too. In the7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher may have expected to cruise to reelection after her Houston-area district, which originally was more of a swing seat, became safely Democratic after redistricting. But Fletcher, who is a member of the centrist New Democrat Coalition, is facing a challenger from the left who is hoping the bluer district would prefer a more progressive candidate.
That candidate, Pervez Agwan, had been gaining steam, raising more than $1 million without any self-contributions or PAC donations and attracting endorsements from the local Democratic Socialists of America and Sunrise chapters. But his campaign may have been irreparably derailed bysexual harassment allegations against both Agwan and senior campaign staffand thearrest of his organizing director. Arecent pollfrom the University of Houston showed Fletcher defeating Agwan by 67 points.
To the north in Fort Worth, 81-year-old Republican Rep. Kay Granger will beretiring at the end of this yearafter nearly three decades in Congress, touching off a scramble to replace her in the solidly Republican12th District. Five Republicans are vying for the nomination, but the two front-runners epitomize the familiar battle for the future of the GOP: the results-focused conservatism of the old guard versus the firebrand populism of MAGA.
In another era, state Rep. Craig Goldman would have been the natural successor to Granger. Goldman has represented the area in the state House since 2013, where he is the Republican Caucus chair and has a reliably conservative voting record. He has the endorsement of Republican heavyweights like Gov. Greg Abbott and former Gov. Rick Perry. He was also among the majority of state House Republicans whovoted to impeach Trump-aligned state Attorney General Ken Paxtonon accusations of abusing the power of his office to help a friend and donor. That has drawn the ire of Paxton, who has endorsed Goldman’s biggest competitor: local business owner John O’Shea. O’Sheatakes a distinctly more Trumpian tack, saying he’d consider joining the far-right House Freedom Caucus if elected and making statements about the country being on a path to “full-blown cultural neo-Marxism.”
Over in the18th District, which loops around Houston, Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is facing a serious challenge from former Houston City Councillor Amanda Edwards. The 74-year-old Jackson Lee has represented the district since 1995 and may have easily won a 16th consecutive term were it not for anill-fated run for Houston mayor last year. While Jackson Lee was dedicating time, money and energy to her mayoral campaign, her up-and-coming challenger (who once interned for Jackson Lee) was busy building her congressional campaign, and the veteran congresswoman has had to play catch up. A recentUniversity of Houston pollput Edwards well within striking range of Jackson Lee.
In the Republican race to fill the26th Districtto replace retiring Rep. Michael Burgess, two far-right candidates are leading a slate of 11. One is Brandon Gill, the 30-year-old son-in-law of Dinesh D’Souza, the far-right commentator who proliferated conspiracy theories that the 2020 election was stolen with hisdeeply inaccurate film, “2000 Mules,” which Gill heavily promoted on his website. The other is Southlake Mayor John Huffman, who has his ownhistory with election misinformation. Southlake hasgained national attentionover the years forissues of bullying and racismwithin its school system. This deep red district is a Republican stronghold, so whoever wins the primary is all but guaranteed to replace Burgess in Congress (though, when asked about the race, Burgesstold the Texas Tribune, “No one can replace me!”).
As Allred makes his play for the Senate, his Dallas-area32nd Districtis up for grabs, and it’s a crowded Democratic field. In total, 10 candidates are running, though two in particular seem to be leading the pack: state Rep. Julie Johnson and trauma surgeon Brian Williams. Johnson is well known in the area both for her time in the state House and as a local Democratic organizer and activist. Johnson, who’s gay, isa member of the LGBTQ+ caucus and has worked to block anti-LGBTQ+ legislationin the state. If elected to Congress, she’d be the first openly LGBTQ+ representative elected in a Southern state. Williams, meanwhile, is a former health policy advisor to Sen. Chris Murphy and worked on the 2022 federal gun safety legislation, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Both candidates have strong political bona fides and progressive platforms that will likely appeal to the diverse, blue district. But with so many candidates, this is yet another primary that just might go to a runoff.
