现在总统初选已经结束，每个人都在问一个问题:共和党会提名谁副的总统?不幸的是，前总统唐纳德·特朗普的竞选团队没有在内部战略电子邮件中抄送给我，所以你和我对此的猜测都是一样的(尽管我建议我们最近的政治聊天对于一些知情的猜测)。但我可能会给你一个答案当...的时候特朗普将宣布他的竞选伙伴。
选择第二名是一个重大决定——因此，不出所料，竞选团队倾向于慢慢来。自1972年现代总统初选时代开始以来，每个非在任的主要政党总统候选人都至少等到7月，通常是8月才宣布他们的竞选伙伴。
竞选伙伴通常在夏末被挑选
自1972年以来，每次宣布非现任副总统候选人时
共和国总统代名人 副总统候选人 聚会 宣布日期 大会前几天 乔治·麦戈文 托马斯·伊格尔顿 D 1972年7月13日 0 乔治·麦戈文 萨金特·施赖弗 D 1972年8月5日 -23 吉米·卡特 沃尔特·蒙代尔 D 1976年7月15日 0 杰拉德·福特 鲍勃·多尔 R 1976年8月19日 0 罗纳德里根 乔治H.W布什 R 1980年7月17日 0 沃尔特·蒙代尔 杰拉尔丁·费拉罗 D 1984年7月12日 4 迈克尔·杜卡基斯 劳埃德·本特森 D 1988年7月12日 6 乔治H.W布什 詹姆斯·丹·奎尔 R 1988年8月16日 0 比尔·克林顿 阿尔戈尔 D 1992年7月9日 4 鲍勃·多尔 杰克·坎普 R 1996年8月10日 2 乔治·布什 迪克·切尼 R 2000年7月25日 6 阿尔戈尔 乔·利伯曼 D 2000年8月7日 7 约翰·克里 约翰·爱德华兹 D 2004年7月6日 20 巴拉克·奥巴马 乔·拜登 D 2008年8月23日 2 约翰·麦凯恩 萨拉·佩林 R 2008年8月29日 3 米特罗姆尼 保罗·瑞安 R 2012年8月11日 16 唐纳德·特朗普 迈克·彭斯 R 2016年7月15日 3 希拉里·克林顿 蒂姆·凯恩 D 2016年7月22日 3 乔·拜登 卡玛拉·哈里斯 D 2020年8月11日 6
伊格尔顿，蒙代尔，多尔，老布什和奎尔在他们的政党大会上被宣布。1972年民主党全国代表大会结束23天后，施赖弗接替伊格尔顿成为麦戈文的竞选搭档。
来源:新闻报道、国会图书馆
但我们可以得到更具体的信息。正如我四年前写的那样在历史上，宣布竞选伙伴的时间取决于每个政党举行大会的时间。从19世纪到1980年，副总统提名人总是在大会上选出。*(最初，大会像选举总统一样为副总统举行了一场有争议的投票，但在20世纪中期，随着总统候选人宣布他的偏好以及代表们的支持，事情平息了下来。)
1984年，前副总统沃尔特·蒙代尔逆势而上。或许是为了激励他苦苦挣扎的竞选活动，他当时的众议员杰拉尔丁·费拉罗作为他四天的竞选搭档，他成为了第一位获得主要政党总统候选人提名的女性以前民主党全国代表大会的开始。这一变化持续至今:自那以后，只有一名候选人(1988年的未来总统老布什)在大会上宣布了他的竞选伙伴。在大会召开前的几天里，其他所有被提名者都宣布了他们的竞选伙伴。
事实上，在过去的14位非现任总统提名人中，有11位在大会前一周宣布了他们的竞选伙伴。一对夫妇——也就是说，2004年时任参议员约翰·克里和前马萨诸塞州州长米特·罗姆尼在2012年—比这早几周，但这种情况很少见。和蒙代尔一样，这可能是因为他们想改变竞选活动;两者凯里郡和罗姆尼在宣布之前在民意测验中落后。我们不要忘记什么时候特德·克鲁兹提名女商人卡莉·菲奥莉娜为他的竞选伙伴2016年4月，作为在2016年共和党初选中抓住势头的最后努力。
然而，特朗普目前在民调中领先，因此除非这种情况发生变化，否则他没有太多动力提前投票。此外，等到大会前夕还有一个额外的好处，那就是给被提名者尽可能多的时间来确保他做出最佳选择。
特朗普总是有可能做出一些不可预测的事情——毕竟他是唐纳德·特朗普——但最有可能的结果是他会在共和党全国代表大会前一周公布他的竞选伙伴。今年，RNC将于7月15日开幕。我们将在7月8日至14日之间发布公告。
脚注
*这包括当时的参议员托马斯·伊格尔顿(Thomas Eagleton)，当时的参议员乔治·麦戈文(George McGovern)最初在1972年选择他作为竞选伙伴。然而，伊格尔顿几周后退出了据透露他曾因抑郁症住院。那年民主党真正的副总统候选人是前驻法国大使(肯尼迪的姻亲)萨金特·施赖弗麦戈文敲了敲民主党全国代表大会结束23天后。
When will Trump make his VP pick?
Now that the presidential primaries are over, one question is on everybody’s lips: Whom will Republicans nominate forvicepresident? Unfortunately, former President Donald Trump’s campaign hasn’t been cc-ing me on its internal strategy emails, so your guess is as good as mine on that one (although I recommendour recent politics chatfor some informed speculation). But I might have an answer for you onwhenTrump will announce his running mate.
Choosing a No. 2 is a big decision — so, unsurprisingly, campaigns tend to take their time making it. Since 1972, when the modern presidential primary era began, every non-incumbent major-party presidential candidate has waited until at least July, and often August, to announce their running mate.
Running mates typically get picked in late summer
When each non-incumbent vice presidential nominee was announced, since 1972
PRES. NOMINEE V.P. NOMINEE PARTY DATE ANNOUNCED DAYS BEFORE CONVENTION George McGovern Thomas Eagleton D July 13, 1972 0 George McGovern Sargent Shriver D Aug. 5, 1972 -23 Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale D July 15, 1976 0 Gerald Ford Bob Dole R Aug. 19, 1976 0 Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush R July 17, 1980 0 Walter Mondale Geraldine Ferraro D July 12, 1984 4 Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen D July 12, 1988 6 George H.W. Bush Dan Quayle R Aug. 16, 1988 0 Bill Clinton Al Gore D July 9, 1992 4 Bob Dole Jack Kemp R Aug. 10, 1996 2 George W. Bush Dick Cheney R July 25, 2000 6 Al Gore Joe Lieberman D Aug. 7, 2000 7 John Kerry John Edwards D July 6, 2004 20 Barack Obama Joe Biden D Aug. 23, 2008 2 John McCain Sarah Palin R Aug. 29, 2008 3 Mitt Romney Paul Ryan R Aug. 11, 2012 16 Donald Trump Mike Pence R July 15, 2016 3 Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine D July 22, 2016 3 Joe Biden Kamala Harris D Aug. 11, 2020 6
Eagleton, Mondale, Dole, H.W. Bush and Quayle were announced during their party’s convention. After it was revealed Eagleton had been hospitalized for depression, Shriver replaced Eagleton as McGovern’s running mate 23 days after the 1972 Democratic National Convention ended.
SOURCES: NEWS REPORTS, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS
But we can get more specific than that.As I wrote four years ago, the timing of running-mate announcements has historically depended on when each party has held its convention. From the 1800s all the way through 1980,vice-presidential nominees were always chosen at the convention itself.* (Originally, the convention held a contested vote for vice president the same way it did for president, but things settled down in the mid-20th century, with the presidential nominee declaring his preference and the delegates going along with it.)
Then, in 1984, former Vice President Walter Mondale bucked the trend. In what was perhaps a bid to energize his struggling campaign, hetapped then-Rep. Geraldine Ferraro— the first woman on a major-party presidential ticket — as his running mate four daysbeforethe start of the Democratic National Convention. The change stuck: Since then, only one nominee (future President George H.W. Bush in 1988) has announced his running mate at the convention itself. Every other nominee has announced their running mate in the days leading up to the convention.
In fact, 11 of the last 14 non-incumbent presidential nominees have announced their running mates the week before the convention. A couple — namely,then-Sen. John Kerry in 2004andformer Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012— have gone a few weeks earlier than that, but that has been rare. And like Mondale, it may have been because they wanted to shake up the campaign; bothKerryandRomneywere trailing in the polls before their announcements. And let's not forget whenSen. Ted Cruz named businesswoman Carly Fiorina as his running matein April 2016 as a last-ditch effort to seize momentum in the 2016 Republican primaries.
However, Trump is leading in the polls right now, so unless that changes, he doesn’t have much of an incentive to go early. Plus, waiting until just before the convention has the added benefit of giving the nominee as much time as possible to make sure he’s making the best choice.
There’s always a chance that Trump will do something unpredictable — he is Donald Trump, after all — but the most likely outcome is that he’ll unveil his running mate in the week before the Republican National Convention. This year, the RNC kicks off on July 15. Dollars to donuts, we’ll have an announcement between July 8 and 14.
Footnotes
*This includes then-Sen. Thomas Eagleton, whom then-Sen. George McGovern initially chose as his running mate in 1972. However, Eagletondropped out a few weeks laterafter it was revealed that he had been hospitalized for depression. The Democrats’ actual vice-presidential candidate that year was former Ambassador to France (and Kennedy-in-law) Sargent Shriver, whomMcGovern tapped23 days after the Democratic National Convention ended.
