美国有两大政党，但有时感觉好像有更多。每个政党内部都有派系通常有相互竞争的目标和策略——而且已经很明显了在……里众议院本届国会，这些派别的规模几乎和实际的党派分裂一样重要。
然而，由于许多州和国会选区对一个政党来说是安全的，这些派别的相对实力不是在11月决定的，而是在整个春季和夏季的初选日决定的。印第安纳州周二的初选就是一个很好的例子。在多场众议院初选中，不止一名共和党人在争夺安全红区的提名，这几乎保证了初选获胜者在国会的席位。在这些竞选中，共和党选民将决定是选择忠实于党内路线的候选人，还是让迈克·约翰逊议长头疼的候选人。他们还将选择谁可能成为这个拥有近700万人口的州的下一任首席执行官。以下是周二值得关注的主要比赛:
印第安纳
观看的比赛:第三、第五、第六和第八国会选区;管理者
投票结束:该州大部分地区东部时间下午6点，西北角和西南角东部时间下午7点
印第安纳州的初选管理者是周二最有趣的州际比赛。行动都在共和党一边，因为这个坚定的红色州可能会选举另一个共和党人继任期限有限共和党州长埃里克·霍尔科姆。领先的候选人似乎是参议员迈克·布朗(Mike Braun)，他在2018年赢得了一个参议院席位，但决定竞选州长，而不是在这个周期连任。然而，布劳恩在共和党提名中有三个著名的挑战者:前州商务部长布拉德·钱伯斯，现任副州长苏珊娜·克劳奇和商人埃里克·多登。第四位，前州司法部长柯蒂斯·希尔，臭名昭著，但却有着错误的理由:他失去再提名2020年他的旧办公室指控出来后他在一次聚会上摸了一群女人。
对布劳恩来说，好消息是他的对手没有一个从群体中脱颖而出。四月初，美国/豪威政治/印第安纳州事务民意调查发现布劳恩在44%，克劳奇、钱伯斯和多登都在10%左右，与调查结果相似在之前的选举投票中。然而，布劳恩的对手无疑已经聚集了资源来推动突破。截至3月31日，布劳恩总共筹集了1020万美元筹集了更多资金(1 280万美元)和差不多一样(1000万美元)——部分归功于数百万美元钱伯斯自己的口袋里和多登的家人。克劳奇没有筹集了这么多(2020年后约为700万美元)，但她确实以310万美元的银行存款进入了竞选的最后几周，比布劳恩、钱伯斯或多登都多。该领域已经花费了他们的资源，主要是为了降低布劳恩的威信，特别是促进他们的候选人资格抓住布劳恩在2020年警察谋杀乔治·弗洛伊德后发表的评论，其中这位参议员似乎支持黑人的命也是命，一个保守的叛教者。
谈到国会初选，只有一场涉及在任者的初选是竞争激烈的，那就是共和党在印第安纳州的激烈角逐第五区印第安纳波利斯北部。两届众议员维多利亚·斯帕兹(Victoria Spartz)决定在这里寻求连任，但只是在哈姆雷特(Hamlet)的表演之后，她在初选中很容易失败，因为她在“参选还是不参选”之间摇摆不定。有一阵子了，斯帕兹看起来像一个潜在的候选人接替布劳恩进入参议院。但是在2023年2月，斯帕兹震惊了政界通过宣布她不仅不会竞选参议员，也不会寻求连任。随后，她反复摇摆不定(说她可能会跑，然后说她不会的，然后说她也许会在最终宣布之前在二月份就在候选人提名截止日期的前几天，她表示确实会寻求连任。
斯帕兹的决定打乱计划与此同时，共和党的许多竞争者中有11名候选人(包括斯帕兹)在初选中。然而，其中一个挑战者看起来对斯帕兹的机会构成了真正的威胁:州众议员查克·古德里奇。一家电力承包公司的首席执行官印第安纳州议会议员古德里奇自筹了大量资金截至4月17日，他筹集了550万美元中的460万美元，这使他在财务上比斯帕兹有很大优势。斯帕兹在2023年几乎没有筹集到资金，只筹集了58。1万美元。即使她已经有了银行存款，斯帕兹仍被古德里奇多花了410万至200万美元。此外，根据的数据，外部支出也有利于古德里奇公开的秘密支持他或反对斯帕兹的团体花费了39.4万美元，而支持斯帕兹或反对古德里奇的团体花费了23.4万美元。
古德里奇利用他的金融优势在广告中强调他的美国优先观点，并攻击斯帕兹，最明显的是试图把她塑造成过度支持乌克兰在对俄罗斯的战争中。斯帕兹是乌克兰裔美国人，古德里奇声称她已经“把乌克兰放在第一位”，同时使用了斯帕兹在椭圆形办公室与乔·拜登总统的照片乌克兰军事援助通过后2022年。然而，斯帕兹的记录更加微妙:她至关重要乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基和反对最近一轮的乌克兰援助国会在4月底通过了该法案。然而古德里奇的攻击可能奏效了三月下旬投票民调机构Mark It Red发现他的竞选支持率几乎与希拉里不相上下，仅以33%对30%的支持率落后。就在斯帕兹于2月初宣布竞选连任后，同一个民意测验专家发现斯帕兹以47%比15%领先稍早的投票由co/efficient for Spartz进行的调查发现，现任总统比古德里奇高出44%至8%。如果这些竞选赞助的民调趋势相对准确，古德里奇可能会在周二击败斯帕兹。
印第安纳州三分之一的国会代表团不竞选连任，留下三个共和党安全开放的席位——因此那里的共和党初选将有效地决定下一届国会成员。在……里第六区众议员格雷格·彭斯和他的哥哥迈克一样保守但不生气他即将卸任，接替他的是温和派还是强硬派仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
前印第安纳波利斯市县议员杰弗逊·什里夫是一家成功的仓储公司的所有者，他在这场金钱竞赛中领先，这要归功于一项450万美元贷款比他的六个对手筹集的资金总和还要多。但富有的州众议员迈克·斯皮蒂也借出了自己130万美元，他用它来提醒选民施瑞弗去年竞选印第安纳波利斯市长失败时采取的温和立场，如支持枪支管制(该选区比第六选区明显偏蓝)。为了强调初选的意识形态断层线:Shreve得到了美国商会而斯皮蒂得到了茶党的支持美国繁荣协会和苏珊·安东尼反堕胎美国组织.
除了商人贾米森·卡里尔(Jamison Carrier)从实际捐赠者那里筹集了最多资金外，没有其他积极参选的候选人筹集到超过20万美元的资金($115,000)此外还有75万美元的自贷。根据数据显示，在三名候选人中，他是唯一一个来自印第安纳波利斯以外地区的人，而印第安纳波利斯在2020年仅占前总统唐纳德·特朗普在该地区选票的23%每日Kos选举。不过，这里没有民意调查，所以很难知道开利的地理优势是否会消除施瑞弗和斯皮蒂的财务优势。
印第安纳州东北部的初选第三区也以一场当权派与叛乱者的战斗为特色。前众议员马林·斯图兹曼是一名众议院自由核心小组成员并在众议院第一次任职期间帮助驱逐了前议长约翰·博纳。现在，随着众议员吉姆·班克斯竞选参议员(班克斯在初选中没有对手)，他正在寻求复出。然而，前艾伦巡回法院法官温迪·戴维斯*激怒了斯图兹曼100万美元至79.6万美元，她也受益于110万美元的外部支出来自女性胜利组织(一个致力于选举更多女性共和党人的组织)。支持建制派的超级政治行动委员会美国领导行动委员会也已经花了180万美元对斯图兹曼。像增长俱乐部和保护自由政治行动委员会这样的茶党团体没有跟上步伐，他们为斯图兹曼或反对他的对手总共花费了120万美元。
然而竞选中最大的筹款人实际上是第三位候选人，商人蒂姆·史密斯(自筹资金110万美元)，但是观察家认为他的机会因丑闻而受损他是被绑在。第四位值得注意的是州参议员安迪·扎伊(Andy Zay)也参加了竞选，并筹集了693，000美元，但最终，斯图茨曼或戴维斯有可能成为该地区的下一任国会议员。
最后，另一名前国会议员可能会在印第安纳州西南部卷土重来第八区—曾经是美国竞争最激烈的席位之一，但现在是共和党的可靠席位。共和党初选中的两位领跑者似乎是州参议员马克·梅斯默和前众议员约翰·霍斯特勒，一些相同的团体正在参与其中:美国领导行动已经花费160万美元为了帮助梅斯默和赫特霍斯特勒，保护自由，PAC是为Hostettler播放广告.
但这场竞选的主要分歧似乎不在于执政理念，而在于外交政策。例如，保护自由政治行动委员会——代表前众议员罗恩·保罗的党内自由派——可能会支持霍斯特勒，因为他和保罗是仅有的六名共和党人之一反对伊拉克战争早在2002年。霍斯特勒在以色列的记录引起强烈反对来自美国以色列公共事务委员会和共和党犹太联盟。引用霍斯特勒在国会获得的反以色列选票他还写了一本书将伊拉克战争归咎于犹太裔美国人帮助以色列的努力，这两个组有下降了220万美元攻击Hostettler或提升Messmer。
总体而言，支持和反对主机厂的外部团体比支持和反对主机厂的团体多花了510万美元，达到79.3万美元。(而且也不像Hostettler本人已经能够反击了;梅斯梅尔比他级别高76.3万美元至4.1万美元.)
也不要忽略另外两个候选人。外科医生理查德·莫斯承诺加入自由核心小组28岁的陆军预备役军人多米尼克·卡瓦诺(Dominick Kavanaugh)筹集了55.6万美元。也就是说，考虑到财力上的差距，除了梅斯梅尔，任何候选人都不得不被视为失败者。
脚注
*不要与前民主党德克萨斯州州长候选人混淆!
5 primaries to watch in Indiana
There are two major parties in the U.S., but sometimes it feels like there are more.Within each party are factionsthat often have competing goals and tactics — and ashas been evidentin theHouse of Representativesthis congress, the size of these factions matters almost as much as the actual partisan breakdown.
Yet because so many states and congressional districts are safe for one party, the relative strength of these factions is decided not in November, but on primary days throughout the spring and summer. Tuesday's primaries in Indiana are a great example. There are multiple House primary races where more than one Republican is vying to become the nominee in a safely red district, all but guaranteeing the primary winner a seat in Congress. In those races, Republican voters will decide whether to elect nominees who will be faithful party-line voters … or who will give Speaker Mike Johnson new headaches. They'll also choose who will likely become the next chief executive of this state of nearly 7 million people. Here are all the key races to watch on Tuesday:
Indiana
Races to watch:3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th congressional districts; governor
Polls close:6 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the northwest and southwest corners
Indiana's primary forgovernoris the most interesting statewide contest on Tuesday. And the action is all on the GOP side of the aisle because the solidly red state will likely elect another Republicanto succeed term-limitedGOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. The leading candidate looks to be Sen. Mike Braun, who won a Senate seat in 2018 but decided to run for governor instead of reelection this cycle. Yet Braun has three notable challengers for the Republican nomination: former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, current Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden. A fourth, former state Attorney General Curtis Hill, has notoriety but for all the wrong reasons: Helost renominationfor his old office in 2020after allegations came outthat he had groped a group of women at a party.
For Braun, the good news is that none of his opponents have broken out from the rest of the pack. In early April, a SurveyUSA/Howey Politics/Indiana State Affairs pollfound Braun at44 percent among likely primary voters, with Crouch, Chambers and Doden all at around 10 percent, similar to the findingsin older polls of the race. However, Braun's opponents have certainly put together the resources to push for a breakthrough. Overall, Braun had raised $10.2 million as of March 31, but Chambershad raised more($12.8 million) andDoden about the same($10 million) — thanks partly to millionsfrom Chambers's own pocketandDoden's family. Crouch hasn'traised as much(around $7 million post-2020), but she did enter the last weeks of the campaign with $3.1 million in the bank, more than Braun, Chambers or Doden. The field has spent their resources mainly to bring Braun down a peg and promote their candidacies, in particularseizing uponcomments Braun made in 2020 following the police murder of George Floyd in whichthe senator appeared supportive of Black Lives Matter, a conservative apostasy.
Turning to the congressional primaries, just one involving an incumbent is competitive and that's the Republican race in Indiana's solidly red5th Districtnorth of Indianapolis. Two-term Rep. Victoria Spartz decided to seek reelection here, but only after a Hamlet rendition that has left her vulnerable to defeat in her primary as she vacillated between "to run or not to run." For a while, Spartzlooked like a potential candidateto replace Braun in the Senate. But in February 2023, Spartzsurprised the political worldby announcing that not only would she not run for Senate, she also wouldn't seek reelection. She then repeatedly flip-flopped (sayingshe might run, then sayingshe wouldn't, then saying shemaybe would) before finally announcingin February, just days before the candidate filing deadline, that she would indeed seek reelection.
Spartz's decisionupset the plansof the many GOP contenders who'd entered the race in the meantime — 11 candidates (including Spartz)are on the primary ballot. However, one of those challengers looks like a real threat to Spartz's chances: state Rep. Chuck Goodrich.The CEO of an electrical contracting companyand member of the Indiana legislature, Goodrichhas self-funded heavily— $4.6 million of the $5.5 million he'd raised as of April 17 — to give himself a significant financial advantage over Spartz, who had only raised $581,000 after barely fundraising throughout 2023. Even with the money she already had in the bank, Spartz has been outspent $4.1 million to $2 million by Goodrich. Plus, outside spending has favored Goodrich as well, according to data fromOpen Secrets, with groups having spent $394,000 supporting him or opposing Spartz, compared with $234,000 supporting Spartz or opposing Goodrich.
Goodrich has used his financial edge to run ads emphasizing his America First views and to attack Spartz, most notably by trying to cast her asoverly supportive of Ukrainein its war against Russia. Spartz is Ukrainian American, and Goodrichhas claimed she's been"putting Ukraine first" while using an image of Spartz in the Oval Office with President Joe Bidenafter the passage of Ukraine military aidin 2022. However, Spartz's record is more nuanced: Shehas been criticalof Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy andopposed the most recent round of Ukraine aidthat Congress passed in late April. Yet Goodrich's attacks may be working: Alate March pollfor his campaign by pollster Mark It Red found him almost running even with her, trailing just 33 percent to 30 percent. Just after Spartz announced her reelection bid in early February,the same pollster had foundSpartz ahead 47 percent to 15 percent, while aslightly earlier pollconducted by co/efficient for Spartz found the incumbent up 44 percent to 8 percent over Goodrich. If the trend in these campaign-sponsored polls is relatively accurate, Goodrich might just defeat Spartz on Tuesday.
A third of Indiana's congressional delegation is not running for reelection, leaving three safely Republican open seats — so the GOP primaries there will effectively decide those next members of Congress. In the6th District, Rep. Greg Pence — who, like his brother Mike, isconservative but not angry about it— is stepping aside, and it's very much an open question whether he'll be replaced by a moderate or a hardliner.
Former Indianapolis City-County Councilor Jefferson Shreve, the owner of a successful storage company, leads the money race thanks to a$4.5 million loanto his own campaign — more than his six opponents have raised combined. But wealthy state Rep. Mike Speedy has also loaned himself$1.3 million, and he's using it toremind votersof the moderate positions, like supporting gun control, that Shreve took last year during his failed bid for mayor of Indianapolis (a significantly bluer constituency than the 6th District). To underscore the ideological fault lines of the primary: Shreve has the endorsement of theU.S. Chamber of Commerce, while Speedy is backed by the tea party groupAmericans for ProsperityandSusan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
No other active candidate in the race has raised more than $200,000 except businessman Jamison Carrier, who raised the most from actual donors ($115,000) in addition to a $750,000 self-loan. There's a chance that Carrier sneaks up the middle between the two front-runners, as he's the only one of the three from a part of the district that's not Indianapolis, which accounted for just 23 percent of former President Donald Trump's vote in the district in 2020, according toDaily Kos Elections. There's no polling here, though, so it's hard to know whether Carrier's geographic advantage will erase Shreve's and Speedy's financial edge.
The primary for northeastern Indiana's3rd Districtalso features an establishment-insurgent battle. Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman was amember of the House Freedom Caucusand helped to oust former Speaker John Boehner during his first stint in the House. Now he's angling for a comeback, as Rep. Jim Banks is running for Senate (Banks is unopposed in that primary). However, former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis* has outraised Stutzman$1.0 million to $796,000, and she has also benefited from$1.1 million in outside spendingfrom Winning for Women (a group dedicated to electing more female Republicans). Pro-establishment super PAC America Leads Action has also spent$1.8 million against Stutzman. Tea party groups like the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC haven't kept pace, spending a combined $1.2 million for Stutzman or against his opponents.
Yet the biggest fundraiser in the race is actually a third candidate, businessman Tim Smith (who self-funded$1.1 million), butobservers believehis chances have beendamaged by a scandalhe'sbeen tied to. A fourth notable, state Sen. Andy Zay, is also running and has raised $693,000, but at the end of the day, chances are either Stutzman or Davis will be this district's next congressman.
Finally, another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's8th District— once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler, and some of the same groups are getting involved: America Leads Action has spent$1.6 millionto help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC isairing ads for Hostettler.
But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans whoopposed the Iraq warback in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel hasprovoked strong oppositionfrom the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citinganti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congressas well as a book he wrote thatblamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups havedropped $2.2 millionto attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.
In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him$763,000 to $41,000.)
Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged tojoin the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.
Footnotes
*Not to be confused with the former Democratic candidate for governor of Texas!
