总统乔·拜登他面临着自七个月前爆发以来以色列和哈马斯战争中最令人担忧的时刻。
令人眼花缭乱的数量最近的发展拜登在国内和国外都强调了他发现自己在政治上处于危险的道路上，因为他受到了共和党人和民主党人对他处理冲突方式的不满。
所有这一切都和他的连任竞选混在了一起民意调查显示选民们表示，他们相信唐纳德·特朗普在同样艰难的情况下会做得更好。
“我认为他的处境非常危险，”美利坚大学以色列研究中心副主任盖伊·齐夫告诉ABC新闻。
前国务院外交官、现就职于卡内基国际和平基金会的亚伦·大卫·米勒(Aaron David Miller)形容拜登陷入了“没有简单出路的战略死胡同”。
大学抗议使海外动荡比以往任何时候都更接近国内，因为美国各地的学生对拜登对以色列加沙战争的反应表示失望，并表示支持巴勒斯坦人。伴随着“种族灭绝乔”的口号，校园骚乱已经产生了大规模逮捕的图像，一些暴力冲突和反犹太主义的指控。
国会共和党人抓住这一影响作为他们党的统一选举年问题，谴责这些场景是拜登政策造成的“混乱”，并声称他没有做足够的工作来保护犹太学生。
拜登回击了共和党为他贴上叙事标签的努力，本周他在一次关于大屠杀纪念的重要演讲中强烈谴责了他所谓的反犹太主义的“凶猛激增”，称任何形式的仇恨言论在任何校园中都没有一席之地。
米勒说:“校园抗议活动，如果我可以用几句话来总结:这对拜登来说很糟糕，对特朗普来说很好，它不会改变美国对中东的政策。”
共和党人-甚至一些民主党人-现在都在抨击拜登的新警告美国将扣留武器以色列可能会大举入侵加沙南部的拉法，那里有140万巴勒斯坦人避难。一批约3，500枚炸弹已暂停上周。
众议院议长·迈克·约翰逊对共和党高层事先未被告知感到愤怒，抨击拜登的决定是“重大时刻”特朗普周四进入曼哈顿法庭前对记者说，这是“可耻的”。特朗普因涉嫌伪造封口费付款的商业记录而受审。检方称，这些付款是为了提升他在2016年的选举前景。
与此同时，许多进步人士和一些主流民主党人继续向拜登施压，要求他对以色列采取更强硬的立场日益严重的人道主义危机。一名联合国高级官员最近警告说，加沙部分地区目前正在经历“全面饥荒”，尽管该组织尚未发布正式声明。
未来几天，拜登政府将向国会提交一份备受期待的报告，说明以色列是否在加沙违反了国际法，或者以色列是否真的在拉法发动重大地面进攻，使巴勒斯坦平民面临更大风险。届时，民主党的批评可能会进一步加剧。
拜登主要寻求在坚定不移地支持以色列的安全和严厉谴责哈马斯10月7日的袭击与减轻加沙平民的苦难之间取得平衡，推动更多的人道主义援助并敦促以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡更好地保护他们，否则将面临后果。
齐夫此前曾在国务院和国会山工作，他称赞拜登“头脑冷静”的反应和处理“非常困难的局面，不屈服于任何一方更响亮、更极端的声音”的能力
米勒在谈到拜登时说:“他正在一条非常微妙的路线上航行。“我认为他想继续驾驭它。”
没有胜算的局面?也许不是
在背景中展开的是一项停火协议的悬而未决的谈判。国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比本周早些时候表示，在哈马斯出人意料地宣布接受一项提议后，谈判进入了“关键阶段”——以色列表示该提议不符合他们的要求。中央情报局局长威廉·伯恩斯本周在开罗试图弥合双方之间的分歧，但会谈于周四结束，没有达成任何决议。
专家表示，达成一项停止加沙敌对行动(即使是暂时停止)并释放被哈马斯扣押的以色列和美国人质的协议，可能是拜登压制大多数批评者的唯一途径。
齐夫说:“从直接意义上讲，今年夏天停火并给该地区带来平静将是一项巨大的成就。
米勒说:“没有以色列和哈马斯的协议，就没有办法改变局面。“没有办法缓和以色列的军事活动，没有办法定期向加沙增加人道主义援助，没有办法释放包括六名美国人在内的人质，甚至没有办法开始引入政府的地区和平倡议。”
拜登面临的一个重大问题是以色列-哈马斯战争将对他在美国总统大选中的机会产生什么影响。
“显然成功是最好的结果。战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任乔恩·奥尔特曼说。
奥尔特曼说:“最棒的是，当11月到来时，他可以指出这一事件是他既促进了以色列人和巴勒斯坦人的利益，也促进了美国的利益。”“从现在到11月还有6个月的时间。”
一;一个美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查上周发布的报告发现，美国人在美国对冲突的政策上存在分歧，但这一问题的突出程度较低。在美国人认为11月对他们来说将是一个重要问题的议题清单中，这场战争排在最后一位。
但问题仍然是，即使拜登有少量倒戈，也足以让他在密歇根和威斯康星等摇摆州落败。在这些州的民主党初选中，这些州出现了反对他处理以色列加沙战争的抗议投票。
米勒说:“对拜登来说，问题不是那些选民转向特朗普，而是他们可能根本不会投票的事实。”“我们不知道以色列-加沙问题会如何影响11月的投票，即使它以目前的状态继续下去。”
'No easy way out': Biden faces anger from all sides as he navigates Israel-Hamas war
PresidentJoe Bidenis taking heat from all sides as he faces what could be the most fraught moment in the Israel-Hamas war since fighting broke out seven months ago.
A dizzying number ofrecent developments, both at home and abroad, have underscored the politically perilous path Biden finds himself on as he navigates criticism from Republicans and Democrats unhappy with his approach to the conflict.
All this mixed up with his reelection campaign in whichpolls showvoters say they trust Donald Trump to do a better job in the same tough situation.
"I think he's in a very precarious position," Guy Ziv, the associate director of American University's Center for Israel Studies, told ABC News.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described Biden as being stuck in a "strategic cul-de-sac with no easy way out."
College protests have brought the overseas turmoil closer to home than ever before as students across the U.S. express frustrations with Biden's response to Israel's war in Gaza and show support for Palestinians. Along with chants of "Genocide Joe," the campus unrest has produced images of mass arrests, some violent clashes and accusations of antisemitism.
Congressional Republicans have seized on the fallout as a unifying election-year issue for their party, denouncing the scenes as "chaos" borne from Biden's policies and claiming he hasn't done enough to protect Jewish students.
Biden has pushed back on GOP efforts to brand him with the narrative, this week forcefully condemning what he called a "ferocious surge" in antisemitism in a major address on Holocaust remembrance, saying hate speech of any kind has no place on any campus.
"The campus protests, if I could sum it up in a few words: It's terrible for Biden, it's very good for Trump and it won't change U.S.- Middle East policy one iota," said Miller.
Republicans -- and even some Democrats -- are now pouncing on Biden's new warningto Israel that the U.S. will withhold weaponsIsrael could use in a major invasion of Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering. A shipment of some 3,500 bombswas pausedlast week.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, angry that top Republicans weren't informed beforehand, slammed Biden's decision as a "senior moment." Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, called it "disgraceful" as he spoke to reporters before entering the Manhattan courtroom on Thursday where he's on trial for allegedly falsifying business records about hush money payments prosecutors say were made to boost his 2016 election prospects.
Meanwhile, many progressives and a number of mainstream Democrats continue to pressure Biden to take a tougher stance on Israel as Palestinians face agrowing humanitarian crisis. Parts of Gaza are currently experiencing a "full-blown famine," a top United Nations official recently warned, though no formal declaration has been issued by the organization.
Democratic criticism could ramp up further when the Biden administration submits a highly-anticipated report to Congress in the coming days on whether Israel has violated international law in Gaza, or if Israel does mount a major ground offensive in Rafah, putting Palestinian civilians even more at risk.
Biden has largely sought to balance unwavering support for Israel's security and harsh condemnation of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack with alleviating hardship for civilians suffering in Gaza by pushing for more humanitarian aid and urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to better protect them or face consequences.
Ziv, who previously worked at the State Department and on Capitol Hill, applauded Biden's "cool-headed" response and ability to handle "a very difficult situation and not to succumb to any of the louder, more extreme voices on either side."
"He's navigating a very fine line," Miller said of Biden. "And I think he wants to continue navigating it."
A no-win situation? Maybe not
Unfolding in the background aretouch-and-go negotiations for a cease-fire deal. Talks reached a "critical stage," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier this week, after Hamas unexpectedly announced it accepted a proposal -- one that Israel said did not meet their requirements. CIA Director William Burns was in Cairo this week to try to bridge the gap between the two sides, but talks ended Thursday with no resolution.
An agreement to stop hostilities in Gaza, even temporarily, and return Israeli and American hostages held by Hamas may be the only way for Biden to silence most of his critics, experts said.
"In the immediate sense, a cease-fire and bringing calm to the region this summer would be a huge, huge achievement," Ziv said.
"Without this Israel-Hamas deal, there's no way to change the picture," said Miller. "No way to de-escalate Israeli military activity, no way to surge humanitarian assistance into Gaza on a regular basis, no way to free the hostages, including six Americans, and no way to even begin introducing the administration's regional peace initiative."
Looming large over Biden is what impact the Israel-Hamas war will have on his chances in the U.S. presidential election.
"Obviously success is the best outcome. How long he has is not completely clear," said Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The best thing is when November rolls around, he can point to the episode as one where he both advanced the interests of Israelis and Palestinians and American interests," Alterman said. "And there's six months between now and November."
AnABC News/Ipsos pollreleased last week found Americans divided on U.S. policy toward the conflict, but that salience on the issue was low. The war ranked last in a list of topics Americans said will be an important issue for them in November.
But the question remains as to whether even a small number of defections from Biden would be enough to sink him in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which saw protest votes against his handling of Israel's war in Gaza in those states' Democratic primaries.
"The issue for Biden is not those voters turning to Trump, it's the fact that they may not turn out at all," said Miller. "We don't know how the Israel-Gaza issue, even if it continues in the state that it's in now, is going to affect voting in November."
