总统的决定乔·拜登前总统唐纳德·特朗普在11月之前进行两次辩论选举为两位竞争者提供了迄今为止最好的机会来展示他们认为有利的对比，但各自都有风险。
周三，两人同意6月27日由CNN主持的辩论和9月10日由ABC新闻主持的辩论这是一个最明确的迹象，表明他们将参加一个面对面的论坛。此前几个月，人们一直猜测这将是又一个被抛弃的政治传统。
可以肯定的是，同意出现在辩论中并不等同于站在舞台上，双方仍可能在后勤问题上存在分歧。但两党的策略师都表示，这种安排表明，双方竞选团队都认为公开争斗有好处。
曾为希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)2016年竞选工作的民主党策略师卡伦·芬尼(Karen Finney)说:“这是一个巩固你的基础的重要机会，但特别是对那些摇摆不定的选民来说，对那些独立选民和尚未决定的选民来说，这是一个提醒他们的机会，让人们在6月份把注意力集中在那些可能没有真正密切关注的人身上。”
在拜登提议举办论坛后，双方迅速达成了举行两场辩论的协议，距离选举日还有六个月的冲刺时间。重要的是，这些辩论将在提前投票开始之前进行，比过去9月底和10月的辩论更早。
特朗普通过抨击他面临的数十项刑事指控来重振他的基础，同时通过强调对经济的失望向摇摆选民点头。民调显示，经济仍是选民最关心的问题。与此同时，拜登将自己塑造为一个稳定的掌舵者和生育权的捍卫者，同时吹捧他的政府在基础设施方面的广泛投资等成就。
到目前为止，特朗普在大多数早期州和全国民调中领先，而拜登在某些调查中缩小了他的赤字-尽管从来没有足够的实际领先优势。
民主党人告诉美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)，他们对拜登竞选团队周三发起两场辩论的举动感到鼓舞。他们表示，这给了拜登一个机会，让他在竞选中把自己描绘成成年人，同时希望这个突出的平台可以改变竞选中的顽固态势。
更重要的是，拜登竞选团队提出了一些条款，这些条款将取消现场观众，并确保只有他和特朗普有资格-试图锁定一个设置，从而剥夺特朗普向人群展示的机会，并防止多名候选人混战。拜登竞选团队也拒绝在总统辩论中与该委员会合作，声称该委员会没有能力在台上应对特朗普。
“这只是表明竞选团队认识到他们需要改变现状，辩论有望成为实现这一目标的有效途径，”一位熟悉拜登竞选策略的消息人士表示。他和其他人一样要求匿名讨论辩论。
“我认为拜登竞选的主要目标是向全国展示特朗普不仅精神错乱，而且在过去四年里他的快球输了多少，”一位民主党民调专家补充说。“我认为，这种类型的展示将形成这种反差。我认为另一个非常明智的策略是淘汰第三方候选人，因为这将拜登想要的选择放在选票上，无论是他还是特朗普。”
拜登阵营已经试图在这个问题上采取攻势，竞选主席詹·欧玛利·狄龙在一份声明中宣布，“不玩了。不再有混乱，不再有关于辩论的争论。我们将于6月27日在亚特兰大见到唐纳德·特朗普——如果他出现的话。”
尽管如此，拜登仍面临隐患。
民主党人表示，总统在今年早些时候发表了强有力的国情咨文，有效地平息了人们对他年龄(81岁)的猜测，但策略师承认，在一次辩论中的失误可能会重新引发担忧。
“这将是一个问题，因为我认为这可能会证实选民对他的很多担忧，并使他更难摆脱这些担忧，”熟悉竞选策略的消息人士在谈到拜登的一次失误时表示。
就共和党而言，他们似乎渴望两位候选人对决。
民调显示，选民在几个政策问题上比拜登更信任特朗普，包括在经济和移民等选民最关心的问题上，这导致共和党策略师告诉美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)，台上的对比实际上有利于前总统，而不是他的继任者，即使拜登表现出色也只能到此为止。
“(选民)觉得经济是变好了还是变坏了?他们觉得世界和平了吗?他们觉得边境安全吗?他们在家里感到安全吗?他们是否觉得口袋里有了更多的钱?拜登无法对这些问题给出肯定的回答。所以，一场大辩论让他止住了流血。共和党战略家奇普·索特斯曼说，他曾为前副总统迈克·彭斯现已解散的2024年竞选活动工作
共和党人还驳斥了关于主持人有权切断麦克风的无观众辩论将抑制特朗普的猜测。
这位前总统在过去的竞选中表现出咄咄逼人的竞选风格，对他的对手和主持人大喊大叫，并破坏民主党人进入论坛的任何策略，不管规则如何，他预计今年将继续这种策略。
“这当然是他的才能之一，”一名前特朗普政府官员表示。“规则将被决定，我们会弄清楚这看起来像什么，但或多或少，他会带你一起去。无论他想往哪个方向发展，你都不得不去那里，就像我们从过去的辩论中看到的那样。”
然而，民主党人警告说，战略是一把双刃剑。
特朗普表现出对辩论脱轨的偏好，有时会混淆视听，以至于观众几乎听不到谁在说话。但如果拜登能够取得突破，如果特朗普像芬尼所说的那样“咆哮和胡言乱语”，他可能会成为一个更严肃的候选人。
她说，“这和两个小时的关于国家面临什么以及你会怎么做的严肃对话不是一回事。”
然而，除非出现任何重大失误或致命打击，否则辩论几乎无法推动选举。
事实上，拜登和特朗普的知名度都很高，民调显示，许多选民对他们的看法都是基于多年的观察，因此对今年的竞选几乎没有什么想法可以改变。
“除非出现最坏的情况，否则不会太多，”这位前特朗普政府官员在被问及这场辩论可能产生多大影响时表示。“通用名称识别，非常坚固的图像。所以，你真正在谈论的是，是否有那么一个时刻，有人说了一些每个人都能捕捉到的话。”
Debates offer candidates large, risky platform for contrast: ANALYSIS
The decision by PresidentJoe Bidenand former PresidentDonald Trumpto debate twice before November'selectionoffers both contenders their best opportunity yet to burnish what they view as advantageous contrasts -- with risks for each.
The two agreed Wednesday to aJune 27 debate hosted by CNN and a Sept. 10 debate hosted by ABC News, the most definitive sign that they will participate in a head-to-head forum after months of speculation that the setting would be yet another political tradition to fall by the wayside.
To be certain, agreeing to appear at a debate is not the same as standing on the stage itself, and the two sides could still disagree over the logistics. But strategists from both parties said the arrangement indicated each campaign sees advantages from a public scuffle.
"This is an important opportunity to both consolidate your base, but particularly for those swing voters, for those independent and undecided voters, it's an opportunity to remind them, to get people to focus in June on the campaign for those who may have not really been paying as close attention," said Democratic strategist Karen Finney, who worked on Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign.
The agreement to the two debates, which came rapidly after Biden proposed the forums, comes ahead of a six-month sprint to Election Day. Significantly, they would take place before early voting starts and earlier than past debates in late September and October.
Trump has rallied his base by railing against the dozens of criminal charges he faces, while nodding to swing voters by highlighting frustrations with the economy, which polling suggests remains a top concern for voters. Biden, meanwhile, is casting himself as a steady hand at the wheel and a defender of reproductive rights while touting accomplishments like his administration's extensive infrastructure investments.
Trump has led most early state and national polls thus far, while Biden in certain surveys has narrowed his deficit -- though never by enough to actually take any consistent leads.
Democrats told ABC News they were heartened by the Biden campaign's move Wednesday to initiate the two debates, saying it gives Biden a chance to portray himself as the adult in the race while hoping the prominent platform could alter the stubborn dynamics of the race.
What's more, the Biden campaign proposed terms that would eliminate a live audience and ensure that only he and Trump would qualify -- trying to lock in a setting that would deprive Trump of an opportunity to play to the crowd and prevent a multi-candidate melee. The Biden campaign is also declining to partner with the Commission on Presidential Debates, claiming it's ill-equipped to handle Trump on stage.
"It just demonstrates that the campaign is recognizing that they need to change the dynamic and that the debates are hopefully an effective way to do that," said one source familiar with the Biden campaign's strategy, who like other spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the debates.
"I think the main goal of the Biden campaign is to show the nation how unhinged Trump not only is but how much he's lost off his fastball in the last four years," added one Democratic pollster. "And this type of a showcase, I think, will draw that contrast. I think the other very tactically smart thing to do was to have eliminated the third-party candidates because it puts the choice that Biden wants on the ballot, which is him or Trump for all the marbles."
The Biden camp is already trying to go on the offense on the issue, with campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon declaring in a statement, "No more games. No more chaos, no more debate about debates. We’ll see Donald Trump on June 27th in Atlanta – if he shows up."
Still, pitfalls lurk for Biden.
Democrats say the president effectively batted down speculation about his age (81 years old) with a forceful State of the Union address earlier this year, but strategists conceded that a slip up at one of the debates could reignite the worries.
"It would be a problem in that it could, I think, confirm a lot of concerns that voters have about him and make it even more difficult for him to shed those concerns," the source familiar with the campaign's strategy said of a bad Biden gaffe.
Republicans, for their part, appeared eager for the two candidates to face off.
Polls show voters trust Trump more than Biden on several policy issues, including on topics of top concerns to voters like the economy and immigration, leading GOP strategists to tell ABC News that the contrast on stage actually serves to benefit the former president, not his successor, and that even a sensational performance from Biden can only go so far.
"Do [voters] feel like the economy's better or worse? Do they feel like the world is at peace? Do they feel like the border's secure? Do they feel safe in their homes? Do they feel like they've got more money in their pocket? Biden can't answer yes on any of those. So, a great debate gets him to stop the bleeding. That's it," said Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence's now-defunct 2024 campaign.
Republicans also swatted away speculation that an audience-less debate where moderators have the power to cut off microphones would inhibit Trump.
The former president in his past campaigns demonstrated an aggressive campaign style, shouting over both his opponents and moderators and disrupting any strategy Democrats had coming into the forum, a tact he's anticipated to continue this year regardless of the rules.
"It's certainly one of his talents," said one former Trump administration official. "The rules will be decided, we'll figure out exactly what that looks like, but more or less, he brings you with him. Whatever direction he wants to go, you kind of have to go there, as we've seen from the debates in the past."
Democrats warn that strategy is a double-edged sword, however.
Trump has shown a penchant for derailing debates, at times muddling them to the point that viewers could barely hear who's talking. But if Biden is able to break through, he could appear to be a more serious candidate if Trump is "ranting and raving," as Finney put it.
"That's not the same thing as two hours of serious conversation about what the country is facing and what you would do about it," she said.
Barring any major slip up or knockout blow, though, the debates could barely nudge the electoral needle.
Both Biden and Trump have virtually universal name recognition, and many voters, polls show, have opinions of them based on years of observation, leaving few minds left to be changed about this year's race.
"Barring the worst-case scenario, not much," the former Trump administration official said when asked how much of an impact the debate could have. "Universal name recognition, pretty hardened images. So, you're really talking about is there a moment where somebody says something that everybody can capture onto."
