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随着小RFK在辩论舞台上寻求一席之地,看看最后一位成功的独立候选人

2024-05-21 10:56 -ABC  -  576743

  1992年10月,在大选周期的第三次总统辩论中,商人兼独立总统候选人罗斯·佩罗站在比尔·克林顿和老布什左边的讲台上。

  自那以后,没有一位独立的总统候选人登上过辩论舞台。

  三十年前,佩罗参加了全部三场大选辩论,赢得了近2000万张选票。如今,小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪希望能与美国总统乔·拜登和前总统唐纳德·特朗普一道参加2010年大选下个月的CNN辩论.

  然而,肯尼迪在达到CNN的门槛方面面临艰巨的任务。该网络上周宣布,它已与拜登和特朗普就将在亚特兰大举行的辩论的条款达成协议。

  为了获得资格,肯尼迪必须在四次独立的全国民调中至少获得15%的选票,这些民调符合CNN的报道标准,并出现在足够多的选票上,以达到270张选举人票。

  据统计,肯尼迪的民调支持率约为10%538的全国民调平均值根据州官员的说法,他在只有足够达到35张选举人票的州的选票上得到确认。

  这位独立候选人坚称自己符合标准在X上发布上周,他指责特朗普和拜登“勾结”让他退出辩论舞台,此前拜登和特朗普同意辩论的条件之一是这只是他们两人之间的事情-禁止肯尼迪参加。

  肯尼迪周日表示,他的团队正在与CNN进行“讨论”,但他没有详细说明会谈内容。CNN发言人没有回应置评请求。

  这位独立候选人上周表示,他将达到标准,但他没有具体说明如何达到标准,同时还指责特朗普和拜登“勾结”让他远离辩论舞台。

  1992年,独立候选人获得总统辩论资格的难度降低了,据Ballotpedia报道该报告指出,总统辩论委员会当时并没有根据投票数自动排除候选人(2000年,该委员会将15%的最低投票率作为其标准的一部分)。

  根据总统辩论委员会制定的标准,佩罗有资格参加1992年的辩论。该委员会自1988年以来一直组织辩论。但这些标准不包括像肯尼迪今天面临的15%的投票门槛。委员会于2000年实施了这一门槛CNN在6月份的辩论中采用了这一观点,

  此外,根据瓦尔多斯塔州立大学教授、《美国第三方的消亡与重生》一书的作者伯纳德·塔马斯的说法,佩罗已经在所有50个州获得了选票,他在一定程度上是通过拥有“巨额资金”实现的。

  佩罗还得到了大量美国选民的支持,这足以使他在当年早些时候的民意调查中领先于克林顿和布什,这是肯尼迪在本轮选举中尚未达到的标志。

  塔马斯告诉ABC新闻,佩罗在1992年的辩论中“广受好评”。但威斯康星大学政治学教授巴里·伯顿(Barry Burden)表示,他可能已经拒绝了一部分选民,他们认为他在关键问题上“没有高度照本宣科或准备充分”。

  尽管最终赢得了全国数百万张选票,但佩罗没有赢得任何一个州。

  伯顿告诉美国广播公司新闻,日益增长的党派偏见和党派忠诚度可能是自佩罗以来没有独立候选人登上主要辩论舞台的原因之一。

  他说:“佩罗在1992年表现出色,那可能是党派仇恨随着时间的推移而真正升级之前的最后一次总统选举,所以我认为有更多的选民愿意考虑一名不属于他们政党的候选人,还有很多选民在心理上不属于某个政党。”

  相对于最近的独立总统候选人而言,肯尼迪享有强大的支持。但塔马斯指出,尽管肯尼迪可能在每个州都获得选票,但15%的投票门槛仍是候选人必须努力才能达到的高门槛。

  塔马斯说:“就获得15%的支持率而言,尽管有可能,但这对他来说(在搭建辩论舞台方面)将是更困难的障碍。”

  With RFK Jr. seeking spot on debate stage, a look at the last independent candidate to make it

  In October 1992, businessman and independent presidential candidate Ross Perot stood at a podium to the left of Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush at the third presidential debate of the general election cycle.

  An independent candidate for president has not made it on the debate stage since.

  Three decades after Perot participated in all three general election debates en route to winning nearly 20 million votes, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hopes to join President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump innext month's CNN debate.

  Kennedy, though, faces a difficult task in meeting CNN's thresholds, which the network announced last week after it said it had reached agreements with Biden and Trump on the terms of the debate, to be held in Atlanta.

  To qualify, Kennedy must net at least 15% in four separate national polls that meet CNN's standards for reporting and appear on enough ballots to reach 270 electoral votes.

  Kennedy polls around 10 percent, according to538's national polling average, and he is confirmed on the ballot in only enough states to reach 35 electoral votes, according to state officials.

  The independent candidate has insisted he will meet the criteria, and in apost on Xlast week, he accused Trump and Biden of "colluding" to keep him off the debate stage after Biden and Trump agreed one of the conditions of the debate is that it's just between the two of them -- barring Kennedy from participating.

  Kennedy said Sunday that his team was "in discussions" with CNN, though he did not elaborate on what those talks entailed. A CNN spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment.

  The independent candidate said last week that he would meet the criteria, though he did not specify how, while also accusing Trump and Biden of "colluding" to keep him off the debate stage.

  It was less difficult in 1992 for independent candidates to qualify for presidential debates,according to Ballotpedia, which noted that the Commission on Presidential Debates did not automatically exclude a candidate based on poll numbers then (in 2000, the commission cemented a 15% polling minimum as part of its criteria).

  Perot qualified for the 1992 debates using criteria set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which has organized the debates since 1988. But those criteria did not include a 15% polling threshold like the one Kennedy faces today.The commission implemented such a threshold in 2000, which CNN has adopted for its June debate,

  Moreover, Perot had achieved ballot access in all 50 states, which he accomplished in part by having an "enormous amount of money," according to Bernard Tamas, a professor at Valdosta State University and author of the book, "The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties."

  Perot also had the support of a large swath of the American electorate -- enough so that he led Clinton and Bush in polls earlier that year, a marker Kennedy has not approached this cycle.

  Perot was "well received" in the 1992 debates, Tamas told ABC News. But he may have turned off a portion of the electorate who saw him as "not highly scripted or well prepared" on key issues, according to Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin.

  Despite eventually winning millions of votes across the country, Perot did not win a single state.

  Increasing partisanship and party loyalty may have contribute to the fact that no independent candidates since Perot have made a major debate stage, Burden told ABC News.

  "[In] '92, when Perot did so well, was probably the last presidential election before the real ramp-up in partisan animosity got escalated over time, and so I think there were more voters who were open to considering a candidate who wasn't of their party, and a lot of voters who weren't attached to a party psychologically," he said.

  Kennedy enjoys strong support relative to recent independent presidential candidates, but Tamas noted while Kennedy is likely to get ballot access in each state, the 15% polling threshold is still a high bar that the candidate will have to work hard to reach.

  "In terms of getting his support up to 15%, while possible, that's going to be the much more difficult hurdle for him [in making a debate stage]," Tamas said.

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