今天是选举日—又——周二，四个州(佐治亚州、爱达荷州、肯塔基州和俄勒冈州)将举行2024年初选。但也许选票上最大的竞争根本不是初选:自由派似乎有机会在一场可能再次证明堕胎在投票箱中的政治效力的竞选中赢得佐治亚州最高法院的席位。与此同时，在俄勒冈州，一个亲以色列团体和民主党当权派正试图阻止两名进步人士前往众议院。
没听说过这些吗?你很幸运，我们已经总结了你需要知道的一切。请继续阅读!
格鲁吉亚
值得关注的比赛:第三和第十三国会选区;州最高法院
投票结束:东部时间晚上7点
格鲁吉亚最高法院选举通常是平静的事情;从2012年到2018年，一个都没有甚至引起了争议。但今年，一场关于堕胎的冲突将其中一个种族推到了聚光灯下。虽然意识形态对法院的控制在周二并没有受到威胁，但民主党首选候选人在这场有争议的竞选中获胜可能会让我们对11月之前佐治亚州的选举格局以及堕胎问题的持续突出有所了解。
最高法院的九名大法官中有四名将在今年竞选连任，其中三名没有竞争对手。但是最高法院的最新成员安德鲁·平森法官受到了前众议员约翰·巴罗的挑战。佐治亚州最高法院选举从技术上讲是无党派的，但在这场竞选中，战线是明确的:品森最初是由共和党州长布莱恩·坎普任命为最高法院法官的，巴罗是前民主党国会议员宣传这一观点佐治亚州为期六周的堕胎禁令是违宪的。
巴罗对堕胎的评论使他在佐治亚州司法资格委员会陷入困境，因为他在一个问题上采取了立场，如果他当选为法院法官，他可能不得不做出裁决。巴罗去联邦法院辩称，他有在竞选中畅所欲言的言论自由权，但一名法官不同意他的观点他可能面临指控如果他在周二获胜，如果他继续在堕胎问题上发表意见，甚至会被佐治亚州最高法院除名。
巴罗的竞选团队无疑希望这场混乱，以及更普遍的堕胎问题，能激励自由派在周二投票给他。但根据通常的衡量标准，平森似乎更有希望保住自己的席位。我们还没有看到任何选举的投票结果，但平森已经超过了巴罗150万美元至88.1万美元，坎普是花费50万美元也代表平森。
重要的是，巴罗的胜利不会彻底改变佐治亚州最高法院的党派构成;最高法院的九名大法官中有八名是由共和党州长任命的，包括平森。但是民主党人肯定会把巴罗的意外胜利视为更多的证据，证明堕胎是他们获胜的问题。
我们也在关注桃州的两场国会初选。继众议员德鲁·弗格森之后宣布退休来自乔治亚的第三区去年12月，五名共和党人参加了初选——这相当于前总统唐纳德·特朗普赢得了一个席位64%对34%2020年。领跑者似乎是布莱恩·杰克(Brian Jack)，他是特朗普的长期工作人员，曾帮助协调这位前总统在像这样的选票落后的竞选中的支持。
那么，如果你得知特朗普背书杰克在这场比赛中，杰克筹集了最多的资金同样(截至5月1日为92.5万美元)。然而，初选中还有两位前地方民选官员也筹集了可靠的资金:前州参议员迈克·克兰(55.9万美元)和前州参议院多数党领袖迈克·杜根(39.8万美元)。拥挤的现场也增加了没有候选人获得多数选票的可能性，这将引发6月18日的决选。
最后，请关注大卫·斯科特众议员在本届国会的表现第13区民主党初选。他并不总是最容易获得重新提名(即:他在2020年的初选中取得了53%的成绩)，今年他在一个对他来说基本上是陌生的地区参选法院命令的重新划分选区。(据每日Kos选举斯科特目前的选民仅占新13区人口的29%。)
问题现年78岁的现任总统的年龄和健康状况可能是今年吸引更多挑战者的另一个因素。六名民主党人与斯科特竞选，其中包括陆军老兵马库斯·弗劳尔斯1700万美元他注定要在2022年在第14区与众议员马乔里·泰勒·格林竞选。然而在这次竞选中，他只筹集了18万美元对斯科特的93.6万美元所以斯科特可能会没事。同样，周二的主要问题是他是否被迫进行决选。
爱达荷
值得关注的比赛:第二国会选区
投票结束:该州大部分地区东部时间晚上10点，狭长地带东部时间晚上11点
在爱达荷州，共和党众议员迈克·辛普森代表该州坚定的红色阵营第二区自从1998年第一次赢得大选以来，他似乎更有可能在今年第14次当选国会议员。然而，辛普森相对中间派的品牌以前有过给他带来麻烦，就像在2022年他只赢了55%反对资金雄厚的主要挑战者。现在，辛普森没有同样规模的反对:他的主要竞争者爱达县(博伊西)共和党中央委员会成员斯科特·克利夫兰是否支持辛普森谁只筹到了10万美元。尽管如此，我们仍在密切关注辛普森的选票份额，因为一些共和党建制派在本轮初选中对更多右翼挑战者的表现不佳，比如阿肯色州众议员史蒂夫·沃马克和德克萨斯州众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯(他仍将在5月28日的决选中再次面对他的挑战者)。
俄勒冈州
值得关注的比赛:第三和第五国会选区
投票结束:马尔赫尔县大部分地区东部时间晚上10点，该州其他地区东部时间晚上11点
俄勒冈州有两场初选引人关注，都在民主党一边。位于波特兰的第三区长期担任民主党众议员的厄尔·布鲁曼诺尔的退休留下了一个稳固的蓝色席位，他的继任者可能会安全地占据多年。三个拥有进步品牌的竞争者正在争夺提名:州众议员。玛克辛·德克斯特，前摩特诺玛县专员苏谢拉·贾亚帕尔格雷欣市议员艾迪·莫拉莱斯。乍一看，贾亚帕尔似乎是领先者。在她最近的角色中，她刚刚退出竞选国会议员，她代表了第三选区总人口的近30%——而德克斯特的选区几乎与第三选区重叠，莫拉莱斯也只代表一小部分。贾亚帕尔还通过她的妹妹、华盛顿众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔与全国进步人士保持联系。普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔是国会进步人士核心小组的主席。
然而，最近的竞选活动带来的大量现金可能已经使这场竞选发生了逆转，这对德克斯特有利。直到四月，德克斯特落后了贾亚帕尔和莫拉莱斯在筹款。但是截至5月1日的学前财务报告显示出德克斯特最近获得了巨大的提升使她的竞选总额达到91.9万美元，超过贾亚帕尔的77.3万美元和莫拉莱斯的60.6万美元。从5月2日到5月19日，德克斯特报告了419，000美元的巨额捐款，远远超过她的对手在最后一分钟的巨额捐款总和150，000美元(在竞选的最后20天，联邦选举委员会要求候选人申报1000美元或以上的捐款48小时内)。
与此同时，外部团体已经花费了500多万美元支持德克斯特或反对贾亚帕尔。314行动基金是一个支持具有科学背景的候选人的进步团体，已经发放220万美元宣传德克斯特的广告(职业是肺病学家)，比这个小组花的还多在……里全部的2022年选举周期跨越所有种族。一个新的超级政治行动委员会与不明确的关系，选民对政府的反应，现在已经花费了320万美元当场攻击贾亚帕尔的记录作为县专员。
这种资金的激增酝酿中的争论因为它似乎与美国以色列公共事务委员会有联系，这是一个亲以色列的两党团体反对进步批评家以色列在加沙的军事行动。在…期间德克斯特支持“谈判停火”和莫拉莱斯呼吁对加沙的援助强调她一贯和早期的电话停火协议——贾亚帕尔的妹妹是著名的以色列评论家所以像美国公共事务委员会这样的组织更希望别人赢。很明显，俄勒冈公共广播公司的分析我发现德克斯特的大部分最后时刻捐款者都有向美国公共事务委员会捐款的历史，有些人最近支持了著名的共和党人，如众议院议长·迈克·约翰逊。
更有争议的是，拦截发表的报告声称AIPAC为314行动基金提供资金，以代德克斯特支出，大概是因为AIPAC更直接的干预在倾向进步的地区可能适得其反。314行动基金否认指控。贾亚帕尔和莫拉莱斯举行联合记者招待会5月初要求德克斯特呼吁该组织披露其捐助者并停止在竞选中的支出，尽管他们无法提供证据证明314行动基金与共和党或AIPAC结盟的捐助者有关;该集团不必提交下一份财务报告直到今天的某个时候.
我们还没有看到这场初选的公众投票，所以很难说巨额支出和由此引发的抗议——更不用说对以色列-加沙冲突的看法——如何影响选民的偏好。此外，俄勒冈州是一个邮寄投票的州因此，对于已经邮寄选票的选民来说，在最后一刻改变偏好是不可能的。
俄勒冈州今年秋季竞争最激烈的众议院选举可能会在第五区从波特兰郊区延伸到俄勒冈州中部。共和党众议员Lori Chavez-DeRemer为总统Joe Biden的席位辩护9个百分点2020年，这将成为共和党必须捍卫的最脆弱的众议院席位之一。这个潜在的奖项引发了州众议员詹妮尔·拜纳姆和律师杰米·麦克劳德·斯金纳之间激烈的民主党初选。拜纳姆在筹款方面领先，带来110万美元截至5月1日，麦克劳德-斯金纳已经筹集了72.6万美元。但麦克劳德-斯金纳更为地区选民所知，他在2022年民主党初选中击败了现任众议员库尔特·施拉德，然后输给了查韦斯-德雷默在大选中领先2个百分点那年晚些时候。
也许考虑到这次损失，许多民主党官员—包括民主党国会竞选委员会-支持拜纳姆而不是麦克劳德-斯金纳，这一次是击败查韦斯-德雷默的更好选择。DCCC甚至采取了不寻常的步骤跑步”混合广告“拜纳姆的加入可以更广泛地宣传她的候选人资格和民主党，让双方都可以通过分摊广告费用来节省资金。外界团体也为拜纳姆花费了大约120万美元来支持她或反对麦克劳德-斯金纳，根据OpenSecrets。314行动基金也是故事的一部分，花了474，000美元为了支持拜纳姆，他的职业是电气工程师。但也许更值得注意的是，主流民主党PAC已经花费了75.9万美元在广告上批评麦克劳德-斯金纳超过报道称她表现不佳她在2022年的竞选工作人员，同时宣传拜纳姆是一个将在政治上恢复体面的人。此外，埃米尔的名单支持拜纳姆，与2022年相比发生了变化它支持麦克劳德-斯金纳(尽管是在那年的初选之后)。
麦克劳德-斯金纳没有放弃。她在做广告强调拜纳姆是2019年唯一投票反对扩大强奸幸存者在性侵案件中提起民事诉讼的诉讼时效的州众议院议员。拜纳姆为投票辩护当时，他说“保护被告不受欢迎，但这是我们的工作。”此外，一个名为“现在健康公平”的外部组织已经花费了大约35万美元在广告上宣传麦克劳德-斯金纳是进步人士。然而，该组织似乎与共和党有联系，所以这可能是一个共和党插手推动一个潜在的弱势大选候选人——一个举动我们经常看到民主党人在共和党初选中。
所有这些将如何影响结果还有待观察，但这看起来肯定是一场势均力敌的比赛。今年我们看到的唯一一次初选投票是四月底调查通过辉煌角落研究和战略代表拜纳姆的竞选活动，发现她领先麦克劳德-斯金纳一根头发，37%对34%。无论谁获胜，都将面临与查韦斯-德雷默的激烈竞争，后者已经筹集了330万美元这个循环。
6 elections to watch in Georgia, Oregon and Idaho
It's election day —again— on Tuesday, as four states (Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon) hold their 2024 primary elections. But perhaps the biggest race on the ballot isn't a primary at all: Liberals appear to have a shot at flipping a Georgia Supreme Court seat in a campaign that could, once again, prove the political potency of abortion at the ballot box. Meanwhile, in Oregon, a pro-Israel group and the Democratic establishment are trying to stop a pair of progressives from heading to the House.
Haven't heard about all this? Well, luckily for you, we've summarized everything you need to know. Read on!
Georgia
Races to watch:3rd and 13th congressional districts; state Supreme Court
Polls close:7 p.m. Eastern
GeorgiaSupreme Courtelections are usually quiet affairs; from 2012 to 2018, not a single onewas even contested. But this year, a clash over abortion has thrust one of these races into the spotlight. While ideological control of the court isn't at stake on Tuesday, a win by Democrats' preferred candidate in this contentious race could tell us something about the electoral landscape in Georgia, and the continuing salience of abortion, ahead of November.
Four of the court's nine justices are up for reelection this year, and three are running unopposed. But the court's newest member, Justice Andrew Pinson, drew a challenge from former Rep. John Barrow. Georgia Supreme Court elections are technically nonpartisan, but in this race, the battle lines are clear: Pinson was first appointed to the court by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, and Barrow is a former Democratic member of Congress who hascampaigned on the ideathat Georgia's six-week abortion ban is unconstitutional.
Barrow's comments on abortion got him in hot water with the Georgia Judicial Qualifications Commission for taking a position on an issue that he might have to rule on if he is elected to the court. Barrow went to federal court to argue that he had a free speech right to say whatever he wanted in his campaign, but a judge disagreed — andhe could face charges, and even be removed from the Georgia Supreme Court should he win on Tuesday, if he continues to speak out on abortion.
Barrow's campaign is undoubtedly hoping that the kerfuffle, and the issue of abortion more generally, will energize liberals to vote for him on Tuesday. But based on the usual metrics, Pinson looks favored to keep his seat. We haven't seen any polls of the race, but Pinson has outraised Barrow$1.5 million to $881,000, and Kemp isspending $500,000on Pinson's behalf too.
Importantly, a victory for Barrow wouldn't drastically alter the Georgia Supreme Court's partisan makeup; eight of the court's nine justices, including Pinson, were appointed by Republican governors. But Democrats would surely see an upset win from Barrow as more evidence that abortion is a winning issue for them.
We're also watching two congressional primaries in the Peach State. After Rep. Drew Fergusonannounced his retirementfrom Georgia's3rd Districtin December, five Republicans threw their hats into the ring for the primary — which will be tantamount to election in a seat former President Donald Trump would have won64 percent to 34 percentin 2020. The front-runner looks to be Brian Jack, a longtime Trump staffer who helped coordinate the former president's endorsements in downballot races like this one.
It won't surprise you to learn, then, that Trump hasendorsed Jackin this race, and Jack hasraised the most moneyas well ($925,000 as of May 1). However, the primary also features two former local elected officials who have raised credible sums too: former state Sen. Mike Crane ($559,000) and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan ($398,000). The crowded field also raises the prospect that no candidate will receive a majority of the vote, which would trigger a June 18 runoff.
Finally, keep an eye on Rep. David Scott's performance in the13th DistrictDemocratic primary. He hasn't always had the easiest time getting renominated (viz.: his 53 percent primary performance in 2020), and this year he's running in a district that is mostly new to him aftercourt-ordered redistricting. (According toDaily Kos Elections, Scott's current constituents make up just 29 percent of the population of the new 13th District.)
Questionsabout the 78-year-old incumbent's age and health were likely another factor in attracting a larger field of challengers this year. Six Democrats are running against Scott, including Army veteran Marcus Flowers, who raised a whopping$17 millionfor his doomed 2022 campaign against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in the 14th District. In this campaign, though, he's raised only$180,000 to Scott's $936,000, so Scott is probably going to be OK. Again, the main question on Tuesday is whether he's forced into a runoff.
Idaho
Races to watch:2nd Congressional District
Polls close:10 p.m. Eastern for most of the state, 11 p.m. Eastern for the Panhandle
In Idaho, Republican Rep. Mike Simpson has represented the state's solidly red2nd Districtsince first winning it in 1998, and he seems more likely than not to claim a 14th term in Congress this year. However, Simpson'srelatively centrist brandhas previouslycaused him trouble, like in 2022 whenhe only won 55 percentagainst awell-funded primary challenger. Now, Simpson doesn't have the same scale of opposition this time around: Hismain competitoris Scott Cleveland, an Ada County (Boise) GOP central committee member running to Simpson's rightwho's only raised $100,000. Still, we're keeping an eye on Simpson's vote share because some establishment Republicans this cycle have had weak primary performances against more right-wing challengers, likeArkansas Rep. Steve WomackandTexas Rep. Tony Gonzales(who still has to face his challenger again in a May 28 runoff).
Oregon
Races to watch:3rd and 5th congressional districts
Polls close:10 p.m. Eastern for most of Malheur County, 11 p.m. Eastern for the rest of the state
Oregon has two primaries of interest, both on the Democratic side. In the Portland-based3rd District, longtime Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open a solidly blue seat that his successor might safely hold for many years. Three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the nomination: state Rep.Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County CommissionerSusheela Jayapaland Gresham City CouncilorEddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner. In her most recent role, which she just stepped down from to run for Congress, she represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — whereas Dexter's constituency barely overlaps with the 3rd District and Morales also represents only a small fraction. Jayapal also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Until April, Dexterhad lagged behindJayapal and Morales in fundraising. Butpre-primary financial reports through May 1showed thatDexter had received a massive late boostto bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000 in last-minute large donations (during the last 20 days of a campaign, the Federal Election Commissionrequires candidates to report contributions of $1,000 or morewithin 48 hours).
Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds,has doled out$2.2 million onads promoting Dexter(a pulmonologist by trade), more than the group spentin theentire2022 election cycleacross all races. And a new super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government,has now spent $3.2 millionon spotsattacking Jayapal's recordas a county commissioner.
This surge of money hasbrooked controversybecause it appears to be connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel groupopposed to progressive criticsof Israel's military action in Gaza. WhileDexter supports"a negotiated cease-fire" andMorales has called foraid to Gaza, Jayapal hasemphasized her consistent and early callsfor a cease-fire — and Jayapal's sisteris a well-known Israel critic, so it would follow that groups like AIPACwould prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly,an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcastingfound that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.
More controversially, The Interceptpublished reports alleging thatAIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably becausemore direct intervention by AIPACcould backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund hasdenied the allegations. Jayapal and Moralesheld a joint press conferencein early May demanding that Dexter call for the group to disclose its donors and stop spending in the race, although they could provide no evidence connecting the 314 Action Fund with Republican or AIPAC-aligned donors; the group doesn't have to file its next financial reportuntil sometime today.
We have seen no public polling of this primary contest, so just how the massive spending and the resulting outcry — not to mention views of the Israel-Gaza conflict — have affected voters' preferences is difficult to say. Moreover, Oregonis a vote-by-mail state, so any last-second shifts in preference would not be possible for voters who've already mailed in their ballots.
Oregon's most competitive House race this fall will likely be in the5th District, which stretches from Portland's outskirts to central Oregon. Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is defending a seat that President Joe Biden would've carried by9 percentage pointsin 2020, making it one of the most vulnerable House seats Republicans must defend. That potential prize has precipitated a highly competitive Democratic primary between state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Bynum has led the way in fundraising,bringing in $1.1 millionas of May 1, while McLeod-Skinnerhas raised $726,000. But McLeod-Skinner is better known to district voters, having defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary before losing to Chavez-DeRemerby 2 points in the general electionlater that year.
Perhaps with this loss in mind,many Democratic officials— includingthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee— are backing Bynum over McLeod-Skinner as the better bet to defeat Chavez-DeRemer this time around. The DCCChas even taken the unusual stepof running "hybrid ads" with Bynum that both promote her candidacy and Democrats more broadly, allowing both to save money by splitting advertising costs. Outside groups have also come in big for Bynum by spending around $1.2 million either backing her or opposing McLeod-Skinner,according to OpenSecrets. The 314 Action Fund is part of the story here, too,having spent $474,000to support Bynum,who is an electrical engineer by trade. But perhaps more notably, Mainstream Democrats PAChas spent $759,000on adscriticizing McLeod-Skinneroverreports that she behaved poorlytoward her campaign staff in 2022 while promoting Bynum as someone who'll restore decency in politics. Additionally, EMILYs Listhas endorsed Bynum, a change from 2022 whenit endorsed McLeod-Skinner(albeit after that year's primary).
McLeod-Skinner has not taken this standing down.She's run adshighlighting that Bynum was the only member of the state House of Representatives in 2019 to vote against expanding the statute of limitations for rape survivors to file civil suits in sexual assault cases. Bynumdefended the voteat the time, saying "it's not popular to protect the accused, but it is our job." Additionally, an outside group called Health Equity Nowhas spent about $350,000on adspromoting McLeod-Skinner as a progressive. However, the group appears to have Republican ties, so it may be a case ofGOP meddling to boosta potentially weaker general election candidate — a movewe've often seen Democrats makein Republican primaries.
How all of this will affect the outcome remains to be seen, but it certainly looks like a close race. The only polling that we've seen of the primary this year is alate April surveyby Brilliant Corners Research& Strategies on behalf of Bynum's campaign that found her a hair ahead of McLeod-Skinner, 37 percent to 34 percent. Whoever wins will face a tough race against Chavez-DeRemer, who has alreadyraised $3.3 millionthis cycle.
