前总统唐纳德·特朗普的在他的封口费审判中，34项罪名全部成立美国广播公司(ABC News)和益普索(Ipsos)最近的一项民意调查显示，似乎有大多数无党派人士和“双重仇恨者”，这些人对特朗普和乔·拜登(Joe Biden)总统都持反对意见，认为前总统应该结束对白宫的争夺。这一数字可能会对11月的选举产生连锁反应。
据报道，在无党派人士中，52%的人表示他们认为特朗普应该结束2024年的总统竞选，在更为特定的“双重仇恨者”群体中，67%的人表示他们也有同样的感觉美国广播公司新闻和益普索民意调查周日公布。这项民意调查是利用益普索的知识小组进行的。
在选举年，独立人士以及与两位候选人都不结盟的人士的选票都受到双方竞选团队的高度追捧。这些投票可能会对2024年的总统竞选产生重大影响，这场竞选可能会在边缘地带决定，特别是在关键的战场州。
总体而言，在特朗普被定罪后，72%的共和党人、6%的民主党人和23%的无党派人士对他有好感。
对于拜登，在特朗普被定罪后，4%的共和党人对他有好感，而72%的民主党人和24%的无党派人士对他有好感。
民调还发现，50%的美国人认为特朗普的判决是正确的;27%的人说不是，23%的人回答说他们不知道。
美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现，近一半(49%)的美国人表示，他们认为特朗普应该仅根据判决就结束竞选。六分之一的共和党人(16%)表示，特朗普应该因其定罪而结束竞选。民调显示，超过四分之三(79%)的民主党人认为他应该暂停竞选。
另一项来自路透社/益普索周五发布的这份报告追踪了这一判决的直接政治后果。
该民调发现，超过一半的注册选民表示，这一判决不影响他们投票给特朗普的可能性，但约有十分之一的共和党选民表示，这让他们投票给他的可能性大大降低。
在独立人士中，16%的人说特朗普有罪的判决让他们更有可能投票给他，但26%的人说这让他们更不可能投票给他。58%的人表示，定罪不会影响他们投票给特朗普的可能性。
在路透社/益普索民意调查中，11%的共和党人表示，定罪将使他们不太可能投票给特朗普。
方法学
这项ABC新闻/益普索民意调查使用基于概率的益普索知识小组于2024年5月31日至6月1日以英语和西班牙语在781名美国成年人的随机全国样本中进行。结果的抽样误差为3.7点，包括整个样本的设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。党派分歧是31-29-32%，民主党-共和党-无党派。查看投票结果和方法的详细信息这里.
Majority of independents and 'double haters' think Trump should end 2024 campaign: POLL
Former President Donald Trump'sguilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush-money trialappears to have a majority of independents and "double haters," those who have an unfavorable view of both Trump and President Joe Biden, feeling that the former president should end his bid for the White House, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll -- a number that could have a ripple effect on the election in November.
Among independents, 52% said they believed Trump should end his 2024 presidential campaign and within the even more specified group of "double haters," 67% said they felt the same way, according to theABC News/Ipsos poll published on Sunday. The poll was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel.
In an election year, the votes of independents as well as those aligned with neither candidate are highly sought after by both campaigns. The votes could make a significant impact on the 2024 presidential race that will likely be decided at the margins, especially within crucial battleground states.
Overall, 72% of Republicans, 6% of Democrats and 23% of independents have a favorable view of Trump following his conviction.
For Biden, 4% of Republicans have a favorable view of him after Trump's conviction, while 72% of Democrats and 24% of independents do.
The poll also found that 50% of Americans think Trump's verdict was correct; 27% said it was not and 23% responded that they don't know.
Almost half -- 49% -- of the country said they think Trump should end his campaign based on just the verdict, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found. One in six Republicans -- 16% -- said Trump should end his campaign because of his conviction. More than three-quarters -- 79% -- of Democrats think he should suspend his bid, according to the poll.
Another poll fromReuters/Ipsosthat came out Friday tracked the immediate political fallout of the verdict.
That poll found that more than half of registered voters said the verdict does not impact their likelihood of voting for Trump, but that around one in 10 Republican voters said it makes them much or somewhat less likely to vote for him.
Among independents, 16% said Trump's guilty verdict makes them more likely to vote for him, but 26% said it made them less likely to vote for him. Fifty-eight percent said the conviction would not influence their likelihood of voting for Trump.
In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 11% of Republicans said that the conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
METHODOLOGY
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® May 31-June 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 781 U.S. adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.7 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan divisions are 31-29-32 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. See the poll's topline results and details on the methodologyhere.
