虽然538这次不会在博客上直播选举结果(尽管我们心里一直在直播)，但这并不意味着周二的初选不会有任何行动。在花园州的一场刑事审判给多场竞选蒙上了阴影，爱荷华州的一个激烈竞争的摇摆席位，以及蒙大拿州的一个百万美元的竞选席位之间，随着选民本周前往投票站，有很多值得关注的事情。以下是新泽西州、爱荷华州和蒙大拿州的四场比赛:
新泽西州
值得关注的比赛:第三和第八国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上8点
尽管被掩盖了另一个政客的过去几周的刑事审判，新泽西参议员鲍勃·梅嫩德斯腐败审判也已经展开在曼哈顿。从许多方面来看，该案成为周二花园州最引人注目的初选的背景。有一分钟，这看起来像是民主党的初选参议院取代梅嫩德斯将是最受关注的话题。(梅嫩德斯3月宣布他不会寻求连任作为一名面临越来越大压力和多项联邦指控的民主党人，尽管他看起来可能以独立候选人身份参选。)但当新泽西州第一夫人塔米·墨菲退出比赛实际上，她将提名之位拱手让给了她的头号竞争对手、众议员安迪·金。
在一场政治音乐椅的游戏中，金在新泽西州的席位第三区，处于中间状态，打开。但参议院初选也在新泽西州政坛产生了其他连锁反应。也就是说，当墨菲仍在竞选时，金和其他民主党初选候选人发起了一场诉讼，以消除花园州对“县界”选票的争议性使用。这些选票将获得当地政党官员支持的候选人列在选票上一个突出的单独行中。一名联邦法官最终禁止这些选票在今年的所有民主党初选中使用(共和党仍然拥有它(至少目前如此)，领先其他比赛——包括第三场比赛——突然变得更具竞争力。
五名民主党人正在争夺金的席位，包括州议会议员兼副议长(兼医生和律师)赫伯·康纳威。康纳威赢得了所有三个县民主大会的支持在该地区和，如果“线”没有被废除，将是明确的最爱。但如果没有线投票的额外推动，康纳威将面临一些竞争，特别是同为议员的民主党党鞭卡罗尔·墨菲(Carol Murphy)，她与康纳威一起代表该州第七立法区。然而，康纳威仍有筹资优势，它有筹集了50多万美元第二高的加注者(墨菲)赢得了超过16万美元。
最近一次投票从4月份开始，康纳威领先墨菲14个百分点。甚至墨菲的竞选民调也显示她落后于康纳威，尽管两项民调中的大多数受访者仍未做出决定。不过，看看县选票的阴影会持续多久还是值得关注的。展望大选，这个地区过去竞争激烈，但在最近的重划选区周期中变得更加蓝了。根据目前的地图，第三选区在2020年以14个百分点的优势支持总统乔·拜登，因此无论谁赢得民主党初选都将赢得席位。
同时，在第八区众议员罗布·梅嫩德斯正在寻求连任，该州包括泽西城、霍博肯和伊丽莎白在内的一些最城市化的地区。是的，有关系:梅嫩德斯是参议员的儿子。他在民主党初选中面临两位挑战者，尽管他的主要竞争对手是民权律师和霍博肯市长拉维·巴拉。巴拉一直在利用竞争对手父亲的法律纠纷为自己谋利。在他的活动公告视频巴拉说他相信“美国比【...】那些只为自己奋斗的政客，”超过了梅嫩德斯和他父亲一起散步的片段。他非常乐意提起老梅嫩德斯的法律纠纷在网上和儿子互相攻击.
但众议员梅嫩德斯并没有回避这个话题，发布广告他指责巴拉“因为害怕与我竞选而与我父亲竞选”尽管巴拉已经激怒了梅嫩德斯现任国会议员受益于外部支出，并且轮询已经显示两者势均力敌。这肯定会是一场值得关注的比赛，我们将看到儿子是否能逃脱父亲的罪恶，或者这个纯蓝区的民主党人是否想要一个新的开始。
艾奥瓦州
比赛看点:第三国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上9点
在美国众议院如此接近分裂的情况下，爱荷华州等竞争激烈的席位的结果第三区可能会在今年11月决定议院的控制权。2022年，共和党众议员扎克·纳恩为共和党赢得了这个位于得梅因的席位胜率不到1个百分点，而前总统唐纳德·特朗普在2020年总统大选中只会在该地区领先0.3个百分点。两名民主党人正在周二的初选中争夺与纳恩竞争的权利:前美国农业部官员兰农·巴卡姆和非营利组织领导人梅丽莎·文。
巴卡姆的父母于1980年从老挝移民到爱荷华州，他显然是民主党初选的热门人选。该党的大部分当权派团结在他的身后，包括民主党国会竞选委员会支持巴卡姆的候选资格良好的初选之前。Baccam也彻底击败了Vine，引进了将近200万美元到她的15.5万美元截至5月中旬。今年5月，当州道德和竞选团队披露对Vine和她的前竞选经理处以罚款在团体投票前以他人名义向州政治行动委员会捐款。尽管如此，藤蔓不能被一笔勾销:她集中了她的竞选活动到处保护堕胎权利她致力于帮助那些饱受创伤和精神健康问题困扰的女性。
蒙大拿
比赛看点:第二国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上10点
蒙大拿州东部的三分之二构成了该州的深红色第二区共和党众议员马特·罗森戴尔(Matt Rosendale)退休后，该职位一直空缺。现任肯定让政界猜测这个选举周期，因为他宣布期待已久的二月初竞选美国参议员，却很快辍学了在特朗普支持另一名共和党竞选人、商人蒂姆·希伊(现在预计他将轻松赢得周二的共和党初选与...对峙现任民主党参议员约翰·特斯)。那就罗森戴尔吧宣布他将寻求连任，但是他很快收回了那个决定也是，而是选择了退休。
一群拥挤的共和党竞选者已经成形在接替罗森戴尔的竞选中，包括三位现在或曾经担任全州职务的政治家:蒙大拿州审计员特洛伊·唐宁;代表该州旧网络普通用户区的前众议员Denny Rehberg六个任期直到他在2012年输掉了参议员竞选;和州公共教育总监埃尔西·阿恩岑。唐宁已经建立了强大的筹款优势—他已经筹集了180万美元其中100多万美元是他自己掏腰包的。与此同时，阿恩岑和雷伯格提出$871,000和$602,000两位候选人的自筹资金都至少达到了总数的四分之三。
唐宁在2018年参议院竞选失败后，于2020年当选为州审计员，似乎是这里最受欢迎的人。他一直是广告的主要支出者—截至5月15日，他已经超过85万美元的支出用于媒体和数字广告购买。唐宁推销了自己作为保守的特朗普支持者和拜登移民政策的批评者。相比之下，阿恩岑花费了大约375，000美元在广告上声称她勇敢地面对“拜登醒来的议程并希望驱逐非法移民。她试图将自己定位为最保守的选择，承诺加入如果她赢了的话。雷伯格提升了自己作为一个经验丰富的老手，但他的竞选活动似乎本质上是骨架式的:他三分之二的支出都用来偿还他借给他竞选活动的一大部分，他只花了大约10万美元媒体购买和他的竞选网站非常简单。
这我们在这里看到的投票表明雷伯格有了一个很好的开始，可能是因为他的名字的知名度，但唐宁一直在进步。一;一个二月初调查由摩尔信息发现雷伯格领先的领域据说受到鼓励他的复出努力。更多最近的调查发现唐宁领先，尽管来自支持唐宁的来源。四月中旬的调查通过向导轮询唐宁的竞选战略发现他的支持率为38 %,雷伯格为26 %,阿恩岑的支持率又回到了10%。和五月初的民意测验由Cygnal为亲唐宁集团选举有原则的退伍军人给他28%至12%领先于雷伯格，与阿恩岑在一位数。
4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa
While 538 won't be live-blogging the results this time around (though we're always live-blogging in our hearts), that doesn't mean Tuesday's primaries won't have any action. Between a criminal trial casting a shadow on multiple races in the Garden State, a hotly contested swing seat in Iowa, and a million-dollar race for an open seat in Montana, there's plenty to keep an eye on as voters head to the polls this week. Here are four races to watch in New Jersey, Iowa and Montana:
New Jersey
Races to watch:3rd and 8th congressional districts
Polls close:8 p.m. Eastern
Though overshadowed byanother politician'scriminal trial these past few weeks, New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez'scorruption trial has also been unfoldingin Manhattan. In many ways, that case serves as the backdrop to the most compelling primary races in the Garden State on Tuesday. For a minute, it looked like the Democratic primary race forSenateto replace Menendez would be the hot one to watch. (Menendezannounced in March he would not seek reelectionas a Democrat under mounting pressure and multiple federal charges, though he appearslikely to run as an independent.) But when New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphywithdrew from the race, she effectively left the nomination in the lap of her top competition, Rep. Andy Kim.
In a game of political musical chairs, that left Kim's seat in New Jersey's3rd District, in the middle of the state, open. But the Senate primary also created other ripple effects across New Jersey politics. Namely, while Murphy was still in the race, Kim and other Democratic primary candidates launched a lawsuit to eliminatethe Garden State's controversial use of "county line" ballots. These ballots list candidates that receive the support of local party officials in a prominent, separate line on the ballot. A federal judge ultimately barred these ballots from being used in all of this year's Democratic primaries (the GOP still has it, for now at least), leading other races — including in the 3rd — to suddenly become more competitive.
Five Democrats are vying for Kim's seat, including state Assembly member and deputy speaker (and doctor and lawyer) Herb Conaway. Conawaywon the endorsement of all three county Democratic conventionsin the district and, had "the line" not been abolished, would have been the clear favorite. But without the added boost of the line ballot, Conaway has some competition, in particular fellow Assembly member Carol Murphy, the Democratic whip who represents the state's 7th Legislative District alongside Conaway. However, Conaway still has a fundraising advantage, havingraised over half a million dollarswhile the next highest raiser (Murphy) drew in over $160,000.
The most recent polling, from April, showed Conaway with a 14-point lead over Murphy. And even Murphy's campaign polling showed her behind Conaway, though a majority of respondents in both polls were still undecided. Still, it's worth watching to see just how long the shadow of the county line ballot may be. Looking forward to the general election, this district used to be somewhat competitive, but got a lot bluer in the most recent redistricting cycle. Under the current map, the 3rd District went for President Joe Biden by 14 percentage points in 2020, so it's a decent bet that whoever wins the Democratic primary will sail into the seat.
Meanwhile, up in the8th District— which includes some of the most urban stretches of the state including Jersey City, Hoboken and Elizabeth — Rep. Rob Menendez is seeking reelection to a second term. And yes, there is a relation: Menendez is the Senator's son. He's facing two challengers in the Democratic primary, though his main competition is civil rights attorney and Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Bhalla has been leveraging the legal troubles of his competitor's father to his advantage. In hiscampaign announcement video, Bhalla said he believes "America is better than [...] the politicians who strive only to serve themselves," over a clip of Menendez walking alongside his father. And he's been all too happy to bring up the elder Menendez's legal troubles whentrading barbs with the son online.
But Rep. Menendez hasn't shied away from the subject,releasing an adwhere he accused Bhalla of running "against my father because he's scared of running against me." Though Bhalla hasoutraised Menendez, the incumbent Congressman has benefited fromoutside spending, and polling hasshown the two fairly evenly matched. It will definitely be a race to watch, as we see whether the son can outrun the sins of the father, or if Democrats in this solid blue district want a fresh start.
Iowa
Race to watch:3rd Congressional District
Polls close:9 p.m. Eastern
With such a closely-divided U.S. House of Representatives, the outcome in hotly contested seats like Iowa's3rd Districtwill likely decide control of the chamber this November. In 2022, Republican Rep. Zach Nunn flipped this Des Moines-based seat for the GOPwith a margin of victory smaller than 1 percentage point, and former President Donald Trump would've carried the district by just 0.3 points in the 2020 presidential election. Two Democrats are vying in Tuesday's primary for the right to take on Nunn: former U.S. Department of Agriculture official Lanon Baccam and nonprofit leader Melissa Vine.
Baccam, whose parents immigrated to Iowa from Laos in 1980, is the clear favorite in the Democratic primary. Much of the party establishmenthas rallied behind him, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, whichbacked Baccam's candidacywellbefore the primary. Baccam has thoroughly outraised Vine, too, having brought innearly $2 milliontoher $155,000as of mid-May. And Vine made news for the wrong reasons in May when the state Ethics and Campaign Disclosurefined Vine and her former campaign managerfor making contributions to a state political action committee in other people's names ahead of an endorsement vote by the group. Still, Vine can't be written off: Shehas centered her campaignaroundprotecting abortion rightsand her nonprofit work to help women struggling with trauma and mental health issues.
Montana
Race to watch:2nd Congressional District
Polls close:10 p.m. Eastern
The eastern two-thirds of Montana make up the state's dark-red2nd District, which sits open following the retirement of Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale. The incumbent certainly kept the political world guessing this election cycle, ashe announceda long-expected bid for the U.S. Senate in early February,only to quickly drop outafter Trump endorsed another Republican contender, businessman Tim Sheehy (who's now expected to easily win Tuesday's GOP primary andface off againstincumbent Democratic Sen. John Tester). Rosendale thenannounced that he'd seek reelection, buthe rapidly backtracked on that decision, too, and instead chose to retire.
A crowded field of Republican contendershas taken shapein the race to succeed Rosendale, including three politicians who hold or have held statewide office: Montana state Auditor Troy Downing; former Rep. Denny Rehberg, who represented the state's old at-large districtfor six termsuntil he lost a Senate race in 2012; and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen. Downing has built a big fundraising edge —he's raised $1.8 million, of which a little over $1 million has come out of his own pocket. Arntzen and Rehberg, meanwhile, have raised$871,000and$602,000, respectively, with both candidates having self-funded at least three-quarters of their totals.
Downing, who was elected as state auditor in 2020 after a failed Senate campaign in 2018, appears to be the favorite here.He's been the principal spender on advertising— as of May 15, he'd mademore than $850,000 in outlaysfor media and digital ad buys. Downing has pitched himselfas a conservative Trump supporterandcritic of Biden's immigration policies. By comparison, Arntzen hasspent about $375,000on ads to argue that she's stood up to "Biden's woke agenda" and wants to deport undocumented immigrants. She has tried to position herself as the most conservative choice,promising to jointhe hard-right House Freedom Caucus if she wins. Rehberghas promoted himselfas an experienced hand, but his campaign seems skeletal in nature: Two-thirds of his expenditures have been to pay back a large chunk of what he loaned his campaign, he's spent onlyaround $100,000on media buys andhis campaign's websiteis very bare-bones.
Thepolling we've seen heresuggests that Rehberg got off to a strong start, likely due to his name recognition, but it's Downing who's been gaining. Anearly February surveyby Moore Information found Rehberg leading the field, whichreportedly encouragedhis comeback bid. More recent surveys have found Downing in the lead, albeit from pro-Downing sources.A mid-April surveyby Guidant Polling& Strategy for Downing's campaign found him at 38 percent and Rehberg at 26 percent, with Arntzen well back at 10 percent. Andan early May pollby Cygnal for the pro-Downing group Elect Principled Veterans gave him a 28-percent-to-12-percent lead over Rehberg, with Arntzen in the single digits.
