美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)和前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将于周四在今年两场总统辩论中的第一场辩论中对决，为双方提供了一个高调的机会，试图在一场民调差距持续缩小的竞选中获得优势。
这场由美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)主持的辩论不同寻常地发生在选举周期的早期，其特点是一位总统和一位前总统都必须为自己的白宫记录辩护的非典型组合。他们也将在独特的情况下发生冲突——当候选人不说话时，CNN将有能力静音，而且不会有演播室观众。
过去的辩论产生了有助于改变总统竞选进程的标志性时刻，而其他辩论则未能产生影响。拜登和特朗普都带着对办公室和性格是否合适的普遍担忧参加了辩论，以及普遍的名字认可----从而强化了选民的观点----这使得白宫竞争中几乎没有波动的机会。
周四有五件事值得关注。
有没有失态或者击倒的出拳突破?
传统上，当选民在11月前往投票站时，辩论的大部分内容都被遗忘了。但精彩时刻有可能会有所突破。
想想里克·佩里(Rick Perry)在2011年共和党初选辩论中的“哎呀”时刻，或者想想罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)在1984年引用对手的“年轻和缺乏经验”的话，这些失言能够穿透国家意识，贯穿历史，甚至超越那些选举发生的年份。
在周四的辩论中，这种时刻的雷达将特别高，因为对两位候选人是否适合担任公职的担忧是这场竞选的主要内容。
81岁的拜登是美国有史以来年龄最大的总统，他是特朗普和他的盟友不断攻击他精神敏锐度的目标，他们有时会传播误导性编辑的视频，似乎他在公开露面时迷路了。
与此同时，特朗普在竞选过程中犯了一系列错误，包括混淆或忘记人名，尽管民调显示，对他精神健康状况的担忧没有对拜登的担忧那么普遍。
策略师表示，一个糟糕的失误可能会损害双方竞选团队在11月获胜的机会，但强劲的表现，尤其是拜登的表现，可能有助于缓解对他年龄的担忧。
拜登“不能吞吞吐吐。他不能偏离这些不连贯的小话题，他偶尔会这样做，因为他所要做的就是搞砸一次，这将是生活中的事情，”资深共和党战略家大卫·科切尔说。“我只是认为对他来说，这是一个很好的机会，可以让他放下很多事情。但这也是一个雷区。”
人品还是政策?
两位候选人在攻击对方的性格和政策方面来回摇摆，仍在寻找将对手置于死地的策略。
拜登一再将特朗普描绘成对民主的威胁，列举了他在煽动2021年1月6日袭击美国国会大厦中的作用，以及他在上任第一天发誓要成为“独裁者”——特朗普的盟友表示，这是一句玩笑话。他最近还开始强调特朗普最近在纽约被判34项重罪。
他还试图在堕胎问题上抨击前总统，堕胎是民主党人的一个关键政策问题，冠状病毒肺炎时代的经济衰退，以及今年早些时候在国会帮助打破两党移民法案。
与此同时，特朗普专注于总统的年龄，并将他称为“拜登犯罪家族”的首领，引用了毫无根据的腐败指控和总统的儿子最近因枪支指控被定罪。
特朗普还谈到了选民对通货膨胀和边境的失望。
“如果在90分钟的时间里，他提到生育权或堕胎这个词的次数少于100次，他很可能会失败。但我预计他会在几乎所有回答中提到这一点。如果他们问他税收政策，他会谈论堕胎，”共和党策略师亚历克斯·科南特谈到拜登时说。“我认为除此之外，他会想提醒人们1月6日的事情。”
“特朗普显然会尽可能多地谈论通胀，”他补充道。
无论候选人采取何种策略--强调性格还是政策--都可能表明他们认为对手最脆弱的地方。
进攻与防守
一位总统与前任发生冲突的独特性质，也让人们不清楚谁将能够抓住这次攻势。
传统上，在总统竞选连任期间，辩论的特点是总统为他在白宫的记录辩护，而挑战者则采取攻势，同时也为参议院或州长官邸的记录辩护——对日常选民来说影响较小，也不太相关。
不过，现在两位候选人都有白宫记录要备份，尚不清楚他们是否能够抓住攻势，以及他们中的一个或另一个是否会在90分钟的面对面会谈中陷入被动。
已经有数百万美元投入到撕毁候选人各自记录的广告中——但是在舞台上被视为一个优秀的攻击者可能会给任何一个竞争者带来好处。
提前点火
对于总统大选来说，周四的辩论发生得非常早，其影响尚不清楚。
策略师推测，一方面，辩论的时机有机会在选民真正开始收看之前，在他们心中为竞选定下基调。
“我认为这让这场辩论变得更加重要，因为它将为接下来的竞选定下基调。对于拜登来说，他迫切希望让这成为一种选择，而不是公投，这以他的竞选团队想要的方式在早期框定了这场比赛。我认为特朗普正在寻找一记致命的一击，”科南特说。
然而，辩论将在劳动节之前几个月举行，劳动节是一个非官方的日子，政治家们强调这是大多数选民开始认真关注这场比赛的最早时间。五个月是一个政治生命，这意味着不断变化的新闻周期可能会将辩论从选民的脑海中抹去。
“很难看出这场竞选中有什么大的转变或大的事情，因为还有很多路要走，”共和党民调专家罗伯特·暴雪说。
小说格式对谁有帮助?
双方都同意的新辩论形式标志着与过去冲突的重大不同。
最近被相声和群众呼吁所主导，本周四的活动理论上将更加驯服。当候选人不回答问题时，麦克风将被关闭，没有观众在场欢呼或嘲笑。
两党特工的传统观点是，新规则有利于拜登，因为它剥夺了特朗普吸引观众或将活动转化为听不见的相声的能力。
“[特朗普]是辩论中无可争议、不败的相声之王。基本上改写了规则。但他也喜欢从人群中吸取营养。因此，你拿走了人群的反馈，你就不知道特朗普总统对没有人群的即时反馈会有什么反应，”曾为前副总统迈克·彭斯现已暂停的总统竞选工作的策略师奇普·萨尔特曼说。
然而，共和党人也表示，他们希望限制相声可以让特朗普看起来不那么像一个恶霸——至少对国内的观众来说。仍然没有什么可以阻止这位前总统至少在拜登回答时说话。
5 things to watch for in the 1st 2024 general election debate
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off Thursday for the first of two presidential debates this year, offering each a high-profile opportunity to try to gain an edge in a race characterized by persistently narrow polling margins.
The debate, moderated by CNN, is occurring unusually early in the election cycle and features the atypical combination of a president and a former president both having to defend their White House records. They will also be clashing under unique circumstances -- CNN will have the ability to mute candidates' microphones when they're not talking, and there will be no studio audience.
Debates in the past have produced signature moments that helped alter the course of presidential race, while others have failed to make a dent. Biden and Trump both come into the debate with widespread worries over the fitness for office and character, as well as universal name recognition -- and thus hardened voter opinions -- that leave few opportunities for fluctuations in the White House contest.
Here are five things to watch for on Thursday.
Do any gaffes or knockout punches break through?
Traditionally, most parts of debates are forgotten by the time voters head to the polls in November. But marquee moments have the potential to break through.
Gaffes -- think Rick Perry's "oops" moment in a 2011 GOP primary debate -- or knockout punches -- think Ronald Reagan citing his opponent's "youth and inexperience" in 1984 -- have been able to pierce the national consciousness and live on throughout history, even beyond the years in which those elections took place.
Radars for such moments will be particularly high in Thursday's debate, as worries over the two candidates' fitness for office are staples in the race.
Biden, the country's oldest president ever at 81 years old, is the target of ceaseless attacks over his mental acuity from Trump and his allies, who at times disseminate misleadingly edited videos to appear as if he's lost during public appearances.
Trump, meanwhile, has made a series of flubs on the trail, including confusing or forgetting people's names, though polls show worries over his mental fitness for office aren't as widespread over concerns about Biden.
Strategists said a bad gaffe could damage either campaigns' chances of victory in November, but that a strong performance, especially for Biden, could help mitigate worries over his age.
Biden "can't stumble around words. He can't drift off into these incoherent little tangents that he occasionally does because all he has to do is screw up once, and that's going to be the thing that lives," said veteran GOP strategist David Kochel. "I just think there's a huge opportunity for him to put a lot of things to rest. But it's also a minefield."
Character or policy?
Both candidates have ping-ponged back and forth between hitting each other on character and policy, still searching for the playbook that'll put their opponent away.
Biden has repeatedly cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and his vow to be a "dictator" on his first day in office -- a comment Trump's allies say was made in jest. He also more recently began highlighting Trump's recent conviction on 34 felony counts in New York.
He's also sought to knock the former president on abortion, a key animating policy issue for Democrats, COVID-era economic slumps and for helping dash a bipartisan immigration bill in Congress earlier this year.
Trump, meanwhile, has focused on the president's age and dubbed him the head of the "Biden crime family," citing both unfounded allegations of corruption and the president's son's recent conviction on gun charges.
Trump also has spoken to voter frustrations over inflation and the border.
"If he says the word reproductive rights or abortion less than 100 times over the course of the 90 minutes, he's probably failing. But I expect he'll raise that in almost every answer. If they ask him about tax policy, he's going to talk about abortion," GOP strategist Alex Conant said of Biden. "I think beyond that, he's going to want to remind people about Jan. 6."
"Trump's obviously gonna try to talk about inflation as much as possible," he added.
Whichever tact the candidates take -- an emphasis on character or policy -- could indicate where they think their opponents are most vulnerable.
Offense v. defense
The unique nature of a president clashing with his predecessor also leaves it unclear who will be able to seize the offensive.
Traditionally during a presidential reelection campaign, debates are characterized by the president defending his record in the White House, while a challenger is on the offensive while also defending a record in the Senate or governor's mansion -- less impactful and relatable to everyday voters.
Now, though, both candidates will have White House records to back up, leaving it unclear whether either will be able to seize the offensive -- and if one or the other will end up stuck on their back foot for the 90-minute tete-a-tete.
Already, millions of dollars have been dumped into ads tearing into the candidates' respective records -- but being seen as a superior attacker on stage could pay dividends for either contender.
Early timing
Thursday's debate is happening atypically early for a general presidential election, the impacts of which are unclear.
On the one hand, strategists speculated, the timing of the debate has a chance to set the tone for the race in voters' minds before they truly start tuning in.
"I think it makes the debate more important, because it'll set the tone for the rest of the campaign. For Biden, who is desperate to make this a choice, not a referendum, it frames the race early on in a way that his campaign wants to frame it. And I think Trump is looking for a knockout punch," Conant said.
However, the debate will be taking place months before Labor Day, the unofficial day highlighted by politicos as the earliest that most voters start paying attention to the race in earnest. And five months is a political lifetime, meaning the debate could be flushed from voters' minds by ever-changing news cycles.
"It's hard to see how there is a big shift or a big thing in this race where there's also a lot of fairway left to play," Republican pollster Robert Blizzard said.
Who does the novel format help?
The new format for the debate -- which both campaigns agreed to -- marks a significant departure from past clashes.
Recently dominated by crosstalk and crowd appeals, this Thursday's event will in theory be tamer. Microphones will be turned off when candidates are not answering questions, and no audience will be present to cheer or jeer.
The conventional wisdom among operatives in both parties is that the new rules favor Biden by robbing Trump of the ability to feed off an audience or devolve the event into inaudible crosstalk.
"[Trump] is the king, undisputed, undefeated king of crosstalk at a debate. Rewrote the rules basically about it. But he also likes to feed off of a crowd. And so, you take away the feeding off the crowd, you don't know how President Trump's going to react to not having that instant feedback from a crowd," said Chip Saltsman, a strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence's now-suspended presidential campaign.
However, Republicans also said they hope that limiting crosstalk could make Trump appear less like a bully -- at least to the audience at home. There's still nothing to stop the former president from at least talking during Biden's answers.
