不可否认,进步民主党周二遭遇了2024年选举周期中最重大的失败,众议员贾马尔 鲍曼(贾马尔·鲍曼)在纽约第16国会选区的民主党初选中失利。然而,这对他所属的运动意味着什么还不清楚。
鲍曼败在威彻斯特县行政长官乔治·拉蒂默手中，暴露了民主党人在支持以色列。亲以色列的外部团体被抛弃将近1500万美元前所未有的大量现金投入竞选，引发了雪崩式的广告，击倒了鲍曼，并促进了拉蒂默自己在堕胎等问题上的自由主义诚意。
由美国以色列公共事务委员会和以色列民主党多数派联盟领导的策略奏效了。他们在该党关于以色列的内部斗争中取得了迄今为止最重大的胜利，一个如何挑战其他进步议员的新剧本诞生了，包括众议员柯里·布什，她今年8月在圣路易斯区面临着一个资金充足的初选挑战者。
然而，特工们估计鲍曼对他的批评者来说尤其容易得手。他否认哈马斯在10月7日袭击以色列期间犯有强奸罪，为亲以色列团体提供了弹药(他后来道歉)，后来有报道称他传播了9/11阴谋论，他因在美国国会大厦拉响火警而引发争议，而他的同胞缺乏这种脆弱性。
“我认为这是对他的人格、行为，以及他的立法记录和信息的一次公投，”曾与反对鲍曼的团体合作的纽约民主党策略师乔恩·赖尼什(Jon Reinish)说。
“我认为这是完全可以复制的，”Reinish说。“但你也不能否认这样一个事实，他以自己的方式，是一个独特的案例，在这里他给自己带来了很多。”
鲍曼在2020年通过罢免一名被指控与他的选区失去联系的16任在任者首次赢得了他的席位，他在就职时发誓要对华盛顿进行改组。一路上，他竖起了羽毛。
鲍曼在国会大厦的走廊里参加了喊叫比赛。他投票反对民主党的基础设施法案，这是乔·拜登总统议程的基石。去年，他拉响了众议院办公楼的火警，他称之为意外事故，但一些人认为这是企图推迟投票-这一行动为他赢得了谴责和轻罪指控。
当他说发生在10月7日的性暴力故事是虚假的“宣传”的视频在网上疯传时，对鲍曼的反对声高涨，这是对以色列及其在加沙地带的军事行动的无休止的批评。重新浮出水面的博客帖子也揭露了一个贩卖911阴谋的过去。
所有这些最终导致反对鲍曼的外部团体投入10位数的资金，并帮助拉蒂默(一位长期支持她的当地政治家)进入初选。
“投票者希望国会议员能够团结人们，把事情做好，而不是那些制造分裂的人。毫无疑问，贾马尔·鲍曼是一个极具争议的人物，不仅在以色列问题上，在其他问题上也是如此，”DMFI总统马克·梅尔曼说。
对鲍曼的推动只是最近的一次齐射，预计这将是一次协调一致的外部努力，以击败主张减少对以色列支持的立法者，布什被广泛认为是下一个目标。
像鲍曼一样，布什是一名初级众议院议员和坚定的进步人士。鲍曼在火警问题上面临法律阻力，而布什正面临司法部对她使用竞选资金的调查。众议院民主党领导人没有表示他们将与布什一起竞选，就像他们没有与鲍曼一起竞选一样。和拉蒂默一样，主要对手韦斯利·贝尔·贝尔是圣路易斯县的地方检察官。
周三，DMFI似乎迫不及待地吹捧一项内部民意调查结果，该结果显示布什与贝尔几乎打成平手。
“你把这两件事放在一起，如果你不把它们作为一个警告信号，你就不是一个非常有能力的政治家，”梅尔曼说，他提到了鲍曼的损失和DMFI的调查。“在这个问题和更广泛的民主问题上，柯里·布什有同样的谩骂和反以色列的言论，同样的反以色列的选票，同样的分裂的政治态度。”
与此同时，自由主义者预测鲍曼的损失将作为寻求引导进步人士的团体的概念证明。
“他们希望确保进步人士不会继续壮大力量，不会在加沙问题上发表言论，不会与拜登一起挑战党的路线，他们希望得到一根棍子，他们做到了。所以，我认为警告信号就在那里。这会让他们双倍下注吗?我想是的，”我们的革命执行主任约瑟夫·吉瓦尔盖兹补充说。
不过，也有可能鲍曼是唯一脆弱的。
鲍曼的选区明显比布什的更容易发动攻击;它拥有庞大的犹太人口，并且白人占多数。根据人口普查数据，布什的选区更加城市化，大约45%是黑人。
鲍曼也曾是一名中学校长，但老布什在2014年迈克·布朗遭致命枪击后，作为一名在弗格森抗议活动中发挥作用的活动人士，他在当地声名鹊起。
此外，拉蒂默可能被证明是纽约民主党战略家汉克·申科普夫所说的“独一无二的优秀候选人”。
特工们一致认为，鲍曼最初对强奸的否认使他有别于其他批评以色列政府和加沙行动的议员。
“鲍曼想到的很多事情都是政治自杀，”Sheinkopf说。“对强奸的否认鼓舞了反鲍曼人，并为这种支出的价值奠定了基础。”
梅尔曼也承认，如果没有鲍曼的特殊弱点，“这将是一场势均力敌的战役。”
展望未来，进步人士建议候选人仍然可以谈论加沙战争，这场战争已经造成数万人死亡，而不会疏远选民。
“我想她可以谈谈这件事。我认为贾马尔的言辞变得相当激烈，在过去的两个月里让一些人失去了兴趣。“像‘犹太复国主义者’和‘殖民定居者’以及阴谋之类的词汇，我认为在这个问题上，你可以使用更好的措辞来表达你的观点，而不那么具有挑衅性，”一名纽约进步党特工说。
亲以色列的外部组织已经没有完美的记录。匹兹堡的进步派众议员李夏苏在4月份轻松击退了一名资金雄厚的初选挑战者，尽管AIPAC和DMFI基本上没有参加这场比赛。
虽然进步人士将鲍曼的损失视为一个警告信号，但它也可以作为一个警钟。
“人们认为‘这是对民主党内反以色列进步人士的致命一击。’似乎没有。人们低估了工人家庭党、美国民主社会主义者和正义民主党。他们将加倍努力，组织起来，”Sheinkopf说。
正义民主党是美国领先的进步团体之一，已经为布什的竞选做好了准备，推动民主党当权派加入其中。和其他进步人士正在推动她采取积极的立场，反对贝尔预期的资金洪流。
发言人乌萨马·安德拉比说:“下一站是柯里·布什。“民主党应该全力支持像贾马尔·鲍曼和柯里·布什这样的人，因为他们将在11月带领他们赢得胜利。”
“此时此刻，她要做的最重要的事情是接种疫苗，这意味着要真正地向选民讲述未来会发生什么。你将会收到大量的邮件和电视广告，说我不为你而战。我不会为这个地区而战，这将是谎言。我想这是我会带走的第一样东西。我们已经看到他们的战术手册正在展开，”吉瓦格斯补充道。
就布什而言，她似乎已经准备好战斗了。
“这些同样的极端分子正在来到圣路易斯，”布什在周二的比赛后谈到反鲍曼的外部团体。“我们将继续为圣路易斯值得拥有的未来而奋斗，并向世人证明，有组织的人胜过有组织的金钱。因为圣路易斯是非卖品。”
How much is Jamaal Bowman's loss a warning for progressives?
Progressive Democrats undeniably suffered their most significant defeat of the 2024 election cycle Tuesday when Rep. Jamaal Bowman lost his New York 16th Congressional District's Democratic primary. What it means for the movement he belongs to, however, is less clear.
Bowman's defeat at the hands of Westchester County Executive George Latimer laid bare the nasty divisions among Democrats over support forIsrael. Pro-Israel outside groups dumpednearly $15 million-- an unprecedented amount of cash -- into the race, fueling an avalanche of ads that knocked Bowman and promoted Latimer's own liberal bona fides on issues like abortion.
The strategy, led by groups allied with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Democratic Majority for Israel, worked. They netted their most significant win yet in the party's internal battles over Israel, and a new playbook was born for how to challenge other progressive lawmakers -- including Rep. Cori Bush, who is facing a well-funded primary challenger in her St. Louis district this August.
However, operatives estimated that Bowman was particularly low-hanging fruit for his critics. He offered pro-Israel groups ammunition by denying that Hamas committed rape during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel (he later apologized), reports later surfaced that he had spread 9/11 conspiracy theories, and he drew controversy for pulling a fire alarm in the U.S. Capitol, vulnerabilities his compatriots lack.
"I think that this was a referendum on both his persona, his comportment, but also on his legislative record and his messaging," said Jon Reinish, a New York Democratic strategist who worked with groups opposed to Bowman.
"I think that this is absolutely replicable," Reinish said. "But you also can't deny the fact that he was, in his own way, a unique case who inflicted a lot on himself here."
Bowman, who first won his seat in 2020 by unseating a 16-term incumbent accused of losing touch with his district, entered office vowing a shakeup in Washington. Along the way, he ruffled feathers.
Bowman engaged in shouting matches in Capitol hallways. He voted against Democrats' infrastructure bill, a cornerstone of President Joe Biden's agenda. And last year, he pulled a fire alarm in a House office building in what he called an accident but what was believed by some to be an attempt at delaying a vote -- an action that earned him a censure and misdemeanor charge.
Opposition to Bowman spiked when video went viral of him saying that stories of sexual violence that took place on Oct. 7 were false "propaganda," which compiled on ceaseless criticisms of Israel and its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Resurfaced blog posts also revealed a past in trafficking 9/11 conspiracies.
All of that culminated in a 10-figure investment by outside groups opposed to Bowman and helped usher Latimer -- a local politician with longstanding support -- into the primary.
"[V]oters want members of Congress who are going to bring people together to get things done, not people who are divisive. And there is no question that Jamaal Bowman emerged as an extraordinarily divisive figure, not only on Israel issues, but on other issues as well," said DMFI President Mark Mellman.
The push against Bowman is just the latest salvo in what is anticipated to be a concerted outside effort to defeat lawmakers who advocate for less support for Israel, with Bush widely anticipated to be the next target.
Like Bowman, Bush is a junior House member and staunch progressive. Where Bowman faced legal headwinds over the fire alarm, Bush is facing a Justice Department probe over her use of campaign funds. House Democratic leaders haven't signaled that they'll campaign with Bush, just like they didn't with Bowman. And, like Latimer, primary opponent Wesley Bell Bell holds local office as the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County.
Seemingly chomping at the bit, DMFI Wednesday touted the results of an internal poll showing Bush virtually tied with Bell.
"You put those two things together, and if you don't take them as a warning sign, you're not a very capable politician," Mellman said, referencing Bowman's loss and DMFI's survey. "Cori Bush has the same kind of vituperative, anti-Israel rhetoric, the same kind of anti-Israel votes, the same kind of divisive approach to politics on this issue and on broader Democratic issues."
Liberals, meanwhile, predicted Bowman's loss will serve as proof of concept for groups looking to boot progressives.
"They want to make sure that progressives don't continue to grow power, speak out on Gaza, challenge the party line with Biden, and they wanted to get a head on a stick, and they did. And so, I think the warning sign is there. Will this make them double down? I think so," added Our Revolution Executive Director Joseph Geevarghese.
Still, it's possible that Bowman was uniquely vulnerable.
Bowman's district is significantly more fertile ground for attacks than Bush's; it boasts a hefty Jewish population and is plurality white. Bush's district is more urban and about 45% Black, according to Census data.
Bowman also had some presence as a former middle school principal, but Bush rose to local prominence as an activist who played a role in the Ferguson protests after 2014 after the fatal shooting of Michael Brown.
Moreover, Latimer could prove to be what New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf called a "uniquely good candidate."
And, operatives agreed, Bowman's initial rape denialism sets him apart from other lawmakers who are critical of Israel's government and operations in Gaza.
"Much of what occurred to Bowman was political suicide," said Sheinkopf. "The rape denialism invigorated the anti-Bowmans and set the stage for the value of the kind of expenditure that was done here."
Mellman also conceded that without Bowman's particular weaknesses, "it would have been a much closer campaign."
Moving forward, progressives suggested that candidates can still talk about the war in Gaza, which has left tens of thousands dead, without alienating voters.
"I think she can talk about it. I think Jamaal's rhetoric got rather intense and turned some people off in the last two months. Loaded terms, like 'Zionist' and 'settler colonial,' and the conspiracies, I think there's better rhetoric you can use around the issue to get your point across without being so provocative," said one New York progressive operative.
Already, pro-Israel outside groups don't have a perfect record. Rep. Summer Lee, a Pittsburgh-based progressive, handily fended off a well-financed primary challenger in April, though AIPAC and DMFI largely stayed out of that race.
And while progressives took Bowman's loss as a warning sign, it also could serve as a wakeup call.
"People suggest 'this is a mortal blow to the anti-Israel progressives within the Democratic Party.' That does not appear to be the case. People are underselling the Working Families Party, the Democratic Socialists of America and the Justice Democrats. They're going to redouble their efforts and organize," Sheinkopf said.
Justice Democrats, one of the nation's leading progressive groups, is already gearing up for Bush's race, pushing the Democratic establishment to join it. And other progressives are pushing her to take an aggressive stance against an anticipated flood of funding for Bell.
"Cori Bush's race is up next," said spokesperson Usamah Andrabi. "The Democratic Party should put all of its resources behind folks like Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush because they are going to be who leads them to a victory in November."
"The most important thing for her to do in this moment is to inoculate, and that means to really speak to voters about what is going to come down the pike. 'You're going to get inundated with mail and TV advertising that says that I am not fighting for you. I am not fighting for this district, and it's going to be lies.' I think that's the first thing I would take away. We've seen their playbook now unfold," Geevarghese added.
Bush, for her part, appears ready for a fight.
"These same extremists are coming to St. Louis," Bush said of anti-Bowman outside groups after Tuesday's race. "We will continue to fight for the future St. Louis deserves and show that organized people beats organized money. Because St. Louis is not for sale."
