前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在竞选第二个任期的几天里过得特别好。共和党人正在尽情享受。
一场加剧了人们对乔·拜登总统年龄的担忧的辩论之后，最高法院周五做出裁决，限制了一项联邦妨碍法令的范围，该法令正被用于起诉特朗普在2021年1月6日袭击美国国会大厦事件中的作用。
随后在周一，最高法院裁定，总统确实拥有一些免于因官方行为而被起诉的豁免权——不完全是特朗普吹嘘的“绝对豁免权”，但仍足以为他推翻2020年失败的努力提供一些法律掩护，并可能将针对他的特别律师案件的裁决推迟到选举日之后。
特朗普于5月底在纽约市被定罪，罪名是伪造商业记录，以隐瞒封口费向一名成人电影女演员支付的款项，这一定罪似乎为拜登带来了微弱的民调上升，但也巩固了共和党对这位前总统的支持，并帮助他消除了一度巨大的筹款赤字。
“我认为特朗普看到了令人难以置信的连胜，好运，不管你怎么称呼它。它始于纽约的定罪，然后导致他身后的政党立即巩固，然后给他的竞选带来了巨大的意外之财，现在以最高法院的这起案件结束，”共和党策略师斯科特·詹宁斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。“夹在中间的是现代政治史上最令人难以置信的总统候选人内爆。”
特朗普的上升正值民调显示竞争激烈之际538的全国民调平均值显示特朗普领先1个多点，尽管一旦辩论后民调进行并公布，这种情况会有多大变化仍有待观察。
好消息都触及了特朗普和拜登的关键弱点。
策略师推测，特朗普加入竞选的一个不利因素是他的法律曝光和1月6日的国会大厦袭击。上个月定罪后，共和党人对前总统脆弱性的担忧加剧，一些人担心选民无法让自己支持一名被定罪的重罪犯，即使该裁决有助于充实特朗普的金库。
然而，现在最高法院帮助缩小了针对他的案件范围，包括1月6日和他的工作，以扭转他的损失，即使他在这些方面的法律风险没有完全消除。
Axiom Strategies的合伙人克里斯汀·戴维森(Kristin Davison)在谈到周一的裁决时表示，“我认为，这只会让针对特朗普的任何指控纯粹是政治性的，我认为这将有助于进一步巩固基础。”。
与此同时，这场辩论强调了民调显示的选民对拜登年龄(81岁)和是否适合担任公职的严重关切。
总统有时会给出曲折的答案，甚至会迷失自己的思路。他在听特朗普的回答时，在其他时刻张开嘴，空洞地盯着。
这一表现被认为在政治上非常有害，以至于引发了党员们对拜登是否应该在今年2024年的竞选中被取代的广泛猜测，同时也让共和党人庆祝。
“我们已经花了三年半、四年的时间说乔·拜登不适合这份工作，主流媒体和民主党人一直在说，‘不，绝对不是，你们这些家伙疯了。’而现在它只是证实了我们四年来所说的一切，没有人能反驳它，”特朗普政府前官员、共和党策略师尼克·特雷纳(Nick Trainer)说。
民主党人对这一裁决表示愤慨，认为最高法院-有三名特朗普提名人-总体上让总统成为国王，并特别为特朗普提供了一条生命线。
对于民主党人来说，这一裁决是一个痛苦的周末的尾声，自周四的辩论以来，他们一直咬指甲。
一位熟悉拜登竞选策略的消息人士上周为总统的机会描绘了一幅黯淡的画像。当周一在最高法院裁决前再次联系到此人时，此人也是同样的阴沉。
“我认为未来几天的民意调查将是重要的，不仅仅是为了看这场辩论对投票差额的影响，也是为了看它对总统潜在支持上限的影响，”该消息人士说。
就连对特朗普直言不讳的批评者——他们自己也是濒临灭绝的物种——也承认，这位前总统发现自己运气不错。
“显然，这是一个很好的运行，”共和党策略师迈克·马德里说，他帮助建立了反特朗普的林肯项目，并预测“我们将在未来几个月的大部分时间里来回拉锯。”
这一阶段让共和党人如此乐观，以至于有些人甚至在思考总统竞选是否已经结束，同时指出该党仍有工作要做。
“是的，我认为它已经结束了，但我仍然相信共和党人需要继续努力，就好像它没有结束一样，”戴维森说。
共和党人还指出，民主党人手中的时间比看起来要少，对拜登的担忧不太可能在本月晚些时候的共和党大会上消退。
“大会是一个耗资1亿美元的商业广告。你所做的一切都是积极的，在你自己的大会上，你不喝水。因此，我们将在7月底面临与今天完全相同的情况。这肯定会让拜登团队感到担忧，”培训师说。
其他人没有走得那么远。
马德里指出，特朗普在被定罪后看到了创纪录的筹款数字，而拜登在辩论后看到了类似的成功，这表明两位候选人都有内在的支持，即使他们的脆弱性被突显出来。
詹宁斯说:“共和党人过于自信，认为这次选举胜券在握，这将是一个错误。”“特朗普仍然有局限性，那就是超过一半的普通公众不喜欢他，也永远不会投票给他。
他补充说，这场竞选“明显朝着(特朗普)有利的方向发展，这是肯定的，很明显，他的对手有着民主党人不愿承认的极端局限性”。“同时，你不能在小鸡孵出来之前就数你的小鸡。从一个养鸡场主那里拿的。”
如果拜登出人意料地决定退出竞选，并引发党内关于谁应该接替他的位置成为2024年提名人的辩论，这场比赛也可能会颠倒过来——可能会推出一个没有拜登弱点的人。
无论如何，共和党人吹嘘说，过去几天发生了对他们有利的严重事件，两党的策略师都表示，即使是在选票落后的竞选中，民主党人也可能被选票顶端的涟漪效应推翻。
参议院共和党人的竞选团队周五发布了一则广告，强调民主党参议员候选人在辩论后称赞拜登适合担任公职，众议院共和党人的竞选团队周一表示，辩论是“无可辩驳的证据”，拜登“正在经历认知衰退”，国会民主党人“由于自己的不负责任和对他们政党的忠诚而袖手旁观，导致了这场危机。”
詹宁斯说:“我认为(民主党人)认为这是改变游戏规则的一个月，他们是对的。”。“但不是朝着他们想要的方向。”
Donald Trump is having a very good few days. Republicans are giddy.
Former President Donald Trump has had a particularly good few days in his bid for a second term. And Republicans are feeling their oats.
A debate that amplified concerns over President Joe Biden's age was followed by a Supreme Court ruling Friday that limited the scope of a federal obstruction statute that is being used in the prosecution against Trump over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Then on Monday, the Supreme Court decided that presidents do have some immunity from prosecution for official acts -- not quite the "absolute immunity" Trump has touted but still enough to offer some legal cover for his effort to overturn his 2020 loss and probably push back a decision in a special counsel case against him until after Election Day.
The wins built on momentum that had been rising from Trump's conviction in New York City at the end of May for falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to an adult movie actress, a conviction that appeared to offer Biden a marginal polling bump but also consolidated Republican support for the former president and helped him erase what was once a yawning fundraising deficit.
"I think Trump saw an incredibly hot streak, lucky streak, whatever you want to call it. It started with the conviction in New York, which then led to an immediate consolidation of the party behind him, and which then resulted in a massive windfall to his campaign, and it has now ended with this case in the Supreme Court," GOP strategist Scott Jennings told ABC News. "And tucked in the middle of it was the most incredible implosion of a presidential candidate in modern political history."
Trump's upswing comes as polling shows a tight race, with538's national polling averageshowing Trump up by just over 1 point, though it remains to be seen how much that changes once more post-debate polling is conducted and released.
And the good news both touches on key vulnerabilities for both Trump and Biden.
One knock against Trump coming into the race, strategists speculated, was his legal exposure and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Republican concerns over the former president's vulnerability spiked after last month's conviction, with some worried that voters couldn't bring themselves to back a convicted felon even as the ruling helped stock Trump's coffers.
Now, however, the Supreme Court helped narrow the cases against him involving Jan. 6 and his work to reverse his loss, even if his legal jeopardy on those fronts isn't completely eliminated.
"I think this just emboldens that case that any claims made against Trump are purely political, and it's going to help, I think, rally the base even more," Axiom Strategies partner Kristin Davison said of Monday's ruling.
The debate, meanwhile, underscored what polls show is significant voter concern over Biden's age (81 years old) and fitness for office.
The president at times offered meandering answers and even lost his train of thought. He had an open-mouthed, empty stare at other moments when listening to Trump's answers.
The performance was deemed so political harmful that it sparked widespread speculation among party members over whether Biden should be replaced atop the 2024 ticket this year, while it sent Republicans celebrating.
"We've spent three and a half, four years saying that Joe Biden is unfit for the job, and the mainstream media and Democrats have been saying, 'No, absolutely not, you guys are crazy.' And now it just confirmed everything we've said for four years, and no one can refute it," said Nick Trainer, a former Trump administration official and GOP strategist.
Democrats expressed outrage over the ruling, suggesting the Supreme Court -- stocked with three Trump nominees -- had in general made presidents king and specifically offered Trump a lifeline.
The ruling was a coda on a painful weekend for Democrats, who have been biting their nails down to the cuticle since Thursday's debate.
One source familiar with the Biden campaign's strategy painted a bleak portrait of the president's chances last week. When reached again on Monday before the Supreme Court's ruling, the person was similarly dour.
"I think the polls that come out in the next few days will be important, not just to see the debate’s impact on the vote margin, but also its impact on the president’s ceiling of potential support," the source said.
Even Republicans vocally critics of Trump -- themselves a dying breed -- conceded that the former president was found himself on a good streak.
"Obviously, it's been a good run," said GOP strategist Mike Madrid, who helped found the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and still predicted that "we'll be seesawing back and forth for the better part of the next few months."
The stretch had Republicans so optimistic that some even pondered whether the presidential race was already over, while noting that the party still had work to do.
"Yes, I think it's over, but I still believe that Republicans need to keep their foot on the gas and run hard as though it's not," Davison said.
Republicans also noted that Democrats have less time on their hands to right the ship than it may seem, with it unlikely that worries over Biden would die down by the GOP convention later this month.
"The convention is a $100 million infomercial. All you do is positive out of convention, you don't take on any water at your own convention. So, we're going to be at the end of July here in the exact same situation that we're in today. And that has to be worrying to the Biden team," Trainer said.
Others didn't go quite as far.
Madrid noted that Trump saw record fundraising numbers after his conviction, while Biden saw similar success after the debate, suggesting that both candidates have built-in support even when their vulnerabilities are highlighted.
"It would be a mistake for Republicans to be overconfident and assume that this election is in the bag," Jennings said. "Trump still has limitations, which is that something over half of the general public doesn't like him and will not ever vote for him.
The race "has decidedly moved in [Trump's] favor, that is for sure, and it's obvious that his opponent has extreme limitations beyond which the Democrats have wanted to admit," he added. "At the same time, you can't count your chickens before they hatch. Take it from a chicken farmer."
The race could also be turned upside down should Biden make the surprise decision to drop out of the race and set off an intraparty debate over who should take his spot as the 2024 nominee -- possibly putting forward someone without Biden's vulnerabilities.
Regardless, Republicans boasted that the past few days made a serious splash in their favor, with both strategists from both parties suggesting that even Democrats in down-ballot races could be toppled by the ripple effects at the top of the ticket.
Senate Republicans' campaign arm released an ad Friday highlighting Democratic Senate candidates' praise of Biden's fitness for office after the debate, and House Republicans' campaign arm Monday saying the debate served as "irrefutable evidence" Biden "is experiencing cognitive decline" and that congressional Democrats "have stood by and enabled this crisis due to their own fecklessness and allegiance to their party."
"I think [Democrats] thought this was the game-changing month, and they were right," Jennings said. "But not in the direction they wanted."
