美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将于周四晚上正式接受共和党总统候选人提名，并发表自周六暗杀企图以来的首次演讲，结束了一场热情洋溢的共和党大会在政治不确定性加剧的时候。
特朗普将发表主旨演讲，届时他将推动更统一的信息在上周末的枪击事件后，他乘着政治顺风进入了夏季和秋季，部分原因是乔·拜登总统灾难性的6月辩论和随后的民主党焦虑。
这样的语气会标志着特朗普个人和美国政治的背离尽管特工人员和参加大会的人都预测会有一个更低调的演讲，重点是团结全国，全国上下都被宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒市前总统遇刺的消息迷住了。
“我认为他已经变了。任何时候，当你离生活只有几毫米的时候，就会产生影响。我认为，从他的立场来看，他不想成为一个分裂的人物。在这个国家迫切寻求团结、需要团结的时候，他希望成为一个团结的人物，”特朗普前竞选官员布莱恩·兰扎(Bryan Lanza)说，他目前仍与他的团队保持联系。
“这不是他的时刻，也不是共和党的时刻。这是这个国家的时刻，”他补充道。“我们经历了一次震惊。我们今天简直可以参加葬礼了。”
特朗普说，之后他修改了自己的言论周六的枪击案，称它最初被设定为一个“非常棒的演讲”，但现在它将“更像一个团结的演讲”
在一个很少有人思考政治噪音的时代，特别是在现任和前任总统之间几乎人人皆知的竞选中，这场演讲标志着特朗普可以在竞选的关键时刻占据舞台的罕见时刻，尽管尚不清楚选举的动态究竟发生了多大变化。
“当你处于这种水平时，世界只会停下来聆听某些演讲，你的提名演讲就是其中之一，”资深共和党策略师奇普·萨尔特曼说。
自周六以来，“团结”一直是热门词汇，两党领导人都对暴力感到遗憾，并敦促该国政治恢复文明。
然而，特工们预测，这样的语气也可能在政治上帮助特朗普。
在任期间，特朗普失去了中间派郊区选民的支持，足以让他在2020年竞选连任。策略师们表示，他们的倒戈更多地被归因于语气，而不是政策分歧，现在，随着民调显示拜登的不支持率居高不下，特朗普更为平和的态度可能有助于赢得一些选民回到他的身边，包括详细描述枪击事件的直接后果。
“你如何让共和党人不特别喜欢你?你如何得到真正的未决定者和无党派人士?你如何让对乔·拜登不满的民主党人?显然，这些是典型的问题型对话，但我认为在这种情况下，他可以带着他的感情来做，”萨尔特曼说。
可以肯定的是，人们仍然普遍预计特朗普会追求拜登的记录，起诉他自选举开始以来一直提出的那种政策对比。
特朗普政府一名前高级官员表示:“我希望听到有关阿富汗撤军、经济和边境以及围绕此次竞选形成的这些大局问题的消息。”。“我认为他在集会上经常谈到的很多事情，但如果特朗普有能力进行外科手术，那将更加外科手术。”
“我确实认为他会在对拜登的批评中加入卡玛拉。我认为今天的新闻清楚地表明，他们仍在推进这一点，特朗普总统非常希望这是他们的一个选择，”这位人士补充说，他指的是围绕民主党人呼吁拜登退出竞选的越来越多的传言。
目前还不清楚这种团结的表象能持续多久。在美国，政治已经演变成一项血腥的运动，那些为两位候选人工作的人可能更愿意在追捕他们的对手时挑战极限。
“老实说，这不会是你从我们其他人那里听到的语气，我们是经验丰富的特工。我们战斗，这就是你如何通过战斗获得地位，”兰扎说。
更多:特朗普的副总统皮克·万斯反对美国援助乌克兰，加剧了对基辅未来的担忧
对大会参与者的采访显示了对团结和特朗普典型的强势的渴望。
“和平与团结，因为现在这是一个非常分裂的国家，”来自加利福尼亚州的代表阿维特·格布雷马里亚姆(Awet Gebremariam)在被问及她想从特朗普那里听到什么时说道。“他差点丢了性命。我认为他现在很低调，很保守，很脚踏实地。我认为他会做一个非常非常棒的演讲，可能会与他以前的演讲大相径庭。”
其他人，如来自德克萨斯州的候补代表丹尼尔·博贝，想要更多的混合，认为“你可以很好地战斗。”
“我希望，”当被问及她是否希望措辞缓和时，来自马萨诸塞州的代表伊丽莎白·海因兹-费里克说。“但至少我还是期待他成为一名斗士，因为他说话直击内心。”
在政治上，民主党人承认，特朗普更加统一的语气可能会使他更难被视为对民主的威胁，特别是在枪击事件发生后，即使他们怀疑他能否在共和党大会后长期保持这种状态。
“我认为，最初有人担心，如果特朗普能以正确的方式处理这件事，他会看起来像一个统一者，并超越他的品牌，”一名民主党策略师说。“但同时，我也要告诉你，没有人有信心继续扮演直男。”
然而，就周四而言，特朗普几乎肯定会受到英雄般的欢迎，不管他说什么。
“我认为这将是一场史诗，”这位前政府高级官员说。“大厅里的每个人都喜欢这个人，他自周六以来第一次对他们讲话，气氛将会相当喧闹。我想这会很激动人心。你会看到代表们热泪盈眶，大喊大叫。”
Trump to give RNC keynote, says he'll stress 'unity' after assassination attempt
Former President Donald Trump will formally accept the GOP presidential nomination Thursday night and deliver his first speech since Saturday's assassination attempt, capping off anebullient Republican conventionat a time of heightened political uncertainty.
Trump will give the keynote remarks at a time when he ispushing for a more unifying messageafter last weekend's shooting and as he rides political tailwinds into the summer and fall, fueled in part by President Joe Biden's calamitous June debate and subsequent Democratic angst.
Such a tone would marka departure both for Trump individually and for American politics writ large, though operatives and conventiongoers alike predicted a more subdued speech focused on uniting the country, with the nation captivated by news of the attempt on the former president's life in Butler, Pennsylvania.
"I think he's a changed man. Anytime you come within millimeters of your life, that has an effect. I think, from his standpoint, he doesn't want to be a divisive figure. He wants to be a unifying figure at a time that the country is desperately seeking unity and needs unity," said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign official who remains in touch with his current team.
"It's just not a moment for him, and it's just not a moment for the Republican Party. It's a moment for the country," he added. "We experienced a shock. We could literally be at a funeral today."
Trump said he revised his remarks afterSaturday's shooting,saying it initially was set to be a "humdinger" but that now it will be "more of a unity speech."
In an era when few thinks punch through the political noise, particularly in a race between a current and former president with virtually universal name recognition, the speech marks a rare moment where Trump can hold the stage at a pivot point in the race, even as it's unclear precisely how much the election's dynamics have changed.
"When you're at this level, there's just certain speeches that the world stops and listens to, and your nominating speech is one," said veteran GOP strategist Chip Saltsman.
"Unity" has been the buzz word since Saturday, with leaders of both parties lamenting the violence and urging renewed civility in the country's politics.
However, such a tone could also help Trump politically, operatives predicted.
While in office, Trump bled support from centrist, suburban voters -- enough to cost him reelection in 2020. Their defection was widely attributed more to tone than to policy disagreements, and now, with polls showing Biden with hefty disapproval ratings, a more leveled approach from Trump could help win some voters back to his side, including by detailing the immediate aftermath of the shooting, strategists said.
"How do you get the Republicans that don't particularly like you? How do you get the true undecideds and independents? And how do you get the Democrats that aren't happy with Joe Biden? Obviously, those are typically issue-type conversations, but I think in this case he can do it with his emotion," Saltsman said.
To be certain, Trump is still widely anticipated to go after Biden's record, prosecuting the kind of contrast on policies that he's been putting forth since the election began.
"I expect to hear about Afghanistan withdrawal and the economy and the border and these big picture issues that have formed around this campaign," said one former senior Trump administration official. "A lot of the things that I think he covers on a regular basis in his rallies, but it'll be more surgical, if Trump's capable of surgical."
"I do think you'll see him add Kamala in a good amount to the Biden criticisms. I think that news today makes it clear that they're still pushing on that, and President Trump's pretty keen to this as an option for them," the person added, referencing growing chatter around Democrats' calls for Biden to drop out of the race.
And it's still unclear precisely how long the veneer of unity can last. Politics has morphed into a blood sport in the U.S., and those working for both candidates may be more willing to push the envelope when going after their opponents.
"I'll be honest, it's not gonna be the tone you hear from the rest of us, we're seasoned operatives. We fight, and that's how you gain position is by fighting," Lanza said.
Interviews with conventiongoers showed an appetite for both unity and Trump's typical punchiness.
"Peace and unity because it's a very divided country right now," Awet Gebremariam, a delegate from California, said when asked what she wants to hear from Trump. "He almost lost his life. And I think he's very subdued and he's very reserved and he's very grounded now. And I think he's going to give a great, great speech, maybe very different from the speeches before he used to give before."
Others, like Daniel Bobay, an alternate delegate from Texas, wanted more of a mix, arguing that "you can fight nicely."
"I'm hoping," Elizabeth Hinds-Ferrick, a delegate from Massachusetts said, when asked if she wanted the rhetoric toned down. "But at least I still expect him to be a fighter, because he speaks straight from the heart."
Politically, Democrats concede a more unifying tone from Trump could make it harder to knock him as a threat to democracy, especially after the shooting, even if they're skeptical he can keep it up long after the GOP convention.
"I think there's an initial concern that if Trump can play this the right way that he can look like a unifier and get outside of his brand," one battleground Democratic strategist said. "But then also at the same time, I would tell you that no one has any confidence that he can continue to play the straight man."
As far as Thursday goes, however, Trump is virtually guaranteed a hero's welcome, no matter what he says.
"I think it's gonna be pretty epic," the former senior administration official said. "Everyone in that hall loves the man, and him speaking to them for the first time since Saturday is going to have a pretty raucous atmosphere. I imagine it's gonna be emotional. You're gonna see delegates teary-eyed and hooting and hollering."
