美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)周日退出总统竞选，在民主党人中间掀起了一股旋风，要求民主党提名副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯接替他。虽然哈里斯似乎有获得足够的代表在该党的虚拟点名提名中赢得民主党提名下星期，猜测有一直在旋转关于;在…各处 ;大约她会选谁加入她的票，从一个大约十几个候选人潜在的竞选伙伴。
然而，并非所有的副总统人选都是平等的，所以我们看了一下民意调查，看看美国人对候选名单上八个最受关注的名字的看法。尽管他们都有简历，但其中一些候选人比其他人更受欢迎，大多数人对公众来说都很陌生:
然而，在民主党人中间，这一潜在领域被看好。每一位顶级候选人(我们有他们的数据)在他们自己的政党成员中都有一个净正面的支持率，尽管同样，有些人比其他人更广为人知。
随着这么短的时间为了审查和挑选竞选伙伴，候选人名单上的任何人都可以证明他们为什么应该成为美国的二把手。下面我们来看看这份工作中最有可能(和不太可能)的一些名字的优缺点，以及民意调查对每个候选人的评价，以及每个候选人可能给候选人带来的潜在影响。
亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利
光是马克·凯利的履历就让他成为一个有吸引力的副总统人选。在成为参议员之前，他是一名海军上校宇航员，两种职业自动授予一些地位的数量竞选公职的候选人。(虽然我们没有任何关于宇航员可信度的民意调查，但我们坚信大多数美国人认为宇航员很酷。)此外，凯利一直是枪支政策改革的领导者，参与创建了最重要的枪支暴力预防组织在他的妻子，前众议员Gabby Giffords被一名选民击中头部后。
亚利桑那州参议员也有一个获胜记录多个的艰难的比赛在一个关键摇摆状态建立一个务实的中间派形象，关注医疗保健的可负担性等问题。在那些跑步中，他最多产的筹款人之一在参议院，这可能会使他赢得一场玩追赶在与前总统唐纳德·特朗普的金钱竞赛中(尽管哈里斯似乎没有太多问题目前为止在这方面)。凯利也代表了一个关键的边境州，并已监视对移民采取更强硬的立场比他的一些民主党同事。这可能有助于打击共和党在一个被视为哈里斯的弱点之一.
他也很受欢迎:本周的三项民调显示，虽然平均只有43%的受访者对他有看法，但这种看法是积极的，全国所有成年人的净平均支持率为+2个百分点，民主党人为+35.3个百分点。在自6月27日总统辩论以来进行的民意调查中，这位前宇航员是这份名单上唯一一位在公众中拥有净正面平均支持率的潜在副总统人选。
然而，选择凯利也有一些潜在的不利因素YouGov/雅虎新闻的民意调查从周一开始，在直接询问受访者认为谁应该是哈里斯的副总裁时，凯利几乎垫底，尽管这可能部分是因为知名度较低。他还被受到一些工会的批评作为仅有的两位没有正式赞助的参议院民主党人之一职业行为这将使工作场所更容易组织工会——尽管他澄清他对该法案的支持星期三。此外，如果哈里斯在11月获胜，将在2026年举行特别选举来填补他的席位，这可能会让哈里斯的竞选活动暂停，因为特别选举将使另一个民主党参议员席位处于危险之中，而他们可能已经处于危险之中逆潮游泳.
宾夕法尼亚州州长乔希·夏皮罗
2023年，当费城I-95号桥倒塌时，乔希·夏皮罗第一次成为全国关注的焦点全国的头条新闻。虽然最初的猜测是重建将需要几个月的时间，但这条高速公路实际上在2004年重新开放仅仅12天为夏皮罗赢得了良好的媒体报道，以及作为一名实干政治家的声誉。从那时起，他继续努力通过妥协立法:宾夕法尼亚州是全国唯一一个立法机构分裂的州，因此任何法案都需要两党支持才能成为法律。
即便如此，夏皮罗还是能够处理宾夕法尼亚州的重大优先事项，比如学校资助和卫生保健，这为他赢得了两党的声誉和在英联邦的高支持率:在我们的看看今年早些时候州长的支持率夏皮罗以+25.9分的净支持率在美国州长中排名第八，是支持率最高的摇摆州州长。也就是说，这位第一任州长和前司法部长在全国舞台上仍相对默默无闻;自特朗普和拜登6月辩论以来，平均进行了7次全国民调，只有37%的受访者对夏皮罗有看法，全国净支持率为-1.3点，民主党为+18点。因此，虽然他开始有点沉入水底，但他有足够的空间与公众一起成长。
对夏皮罗来说，竞选副总裁的风险相当低。如果竞选失败，他可能会在2026年竞选第二个州长任期，如果他决定竞选更高的职位，他会在全国范围内建立一个强大的形象。(如果夏皮罗成为副总统，副州长奥斯汀·戴维斯将成为联邦第一位黑人州长，也是美国最年轻的州长。)像凯利一样，夏皮罗的加入可以在关键的摇摆州增加竞选的支持一方已经落后。此外，提高英联邦的民主党投票率有助于确保该党保持对州众议院的控制在2022年转向民主党占多数12年来第一次，支持参议员鲍勃·凯西潜在的竞争激烈的参议员竞选.
另一方面，夏皮罗也给哈里斯的竞选带来了一些不利因素。他在政策上并不总是与民主党保持一致:他支持教育券例如，在环境问题上持更温和的立场，如水力压裂法，宾夕法尼亚州的一个大产业。这些政策差异可能会使他成为党内的分裂人物，而此时哈里斯将寻求保持拜登退出后，民主党逐渐团结起来。夏皮罗的亲以色列的立场也可能让一些在同一问题上批评拜登的民主党人感到不快——包括许多年轻的非白人选民，哈里斯的竞选团队希望这些选民能够大量涌现。哈里斯-夏皮罗的票将是美国历史上第一张不包括白人基督徒(夏皮罗是犹太人)的票，这可能被视为该票更广泛吸引力中的一种负债。
肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔
最热门的潜在副总裁人选之一是安迪·贝希尔，他目前全国最受欢迎的民主党州长。鉴于他来自一个在2020年投票给特朗普的州，他的受欢迎程度更令人印象深刻。贝希尔通过知名度(他的父亲是一位受欢迎的前州长)和他在任期间对各种紧急情况的回应，赢得了肯塔基人的喜爱。
在他担任州长的早期，贝希尔因为他对新冠肺炎·疫情的回应。但是他的受欢迎程度在一对毁灭性的自然灾害:肯塔基州西部的龙卷风和该州东部的大规模洪水。贝希尔在此期间作为“首席安慰者”的角色被认为是帮助他赢得连任去年在非常保守的州反对可怕的对手.
46岁的贝希尔是副总统候选人名单上最年轻的候选人之一，他担任州长的任期有限，所以他在州政府的任期已经不多了。(如果他成为副总统，他的副州长将完成他的剩余任期。)虽然他是名单上唯一一个不是来自重要摇摆州的候选人，但他可能会成为特朗普副总统人选俄亥俄州参议员万斯(JD Vance)的制衡力量。万斯已经宣扬他的阿巴拉契亚根源在竞选活动中，尽管他是实际上不是这个地区的，和贝希尔，谁管理的阿巴拉契亚的核心区域，已经采取了批评参议员一个“没有信念”的“骗子”
但是贝希尔在兰草州之外鲜为人知;在我们7月份进行的全国平均民意调查中，他是我们名单上所有潜在副总统中知名度最低的一个，只有27%的受访者对他表示了看法。不过，这并不是说他不受欢迎;同样的平均值显示，他在自己党内的净支持率为+17.3，在所有成年人中仅略低于他。
北卡罗来纳州州长罗伊·库珀
哈里斯似乎对北卡罗来纳州在11月的比赛特别感兴趣，所以罗伊·库珀出现在她的审查名单上也就不足为奇了。她至少去过这个州今年到目前为止已经七次了和库珀一起出现在几个场合，似乎有一个和他保持积极的关系。自2008年巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)以来，民主党人还没有在总统选举中赢得过该州，但自那以来的差距一直很小:特朗普在2020年仅以1.3个百分点的优势获胜。值得注意的是，库珀在2016年和2020年赢得了两次州长竞选，与此同时，特朗普赢得了该州，因此他可能对温和派选民有一些分裂票的吸引力。此外，让库珀成为候选人可能会增加该党在大选中的胜算竞争激烈的州长选举填满库珀的办公室。
尽管关于他被列入哈里斯竞选团队审查的候选人名单的传言不绝于耳，但我们只看到过一次民意调查询问美国人对库珀的看法，他落后了2个百分点(尽管相对而言，很少有美国人对他足够了解以表达对他的看法)。在调查中在2023年进行在北卡罗来纳州，他的净支持率为+11.6个百分点，在全国州长中排名中间。像夏皮罗一样，由于共和党领导的州议会，库珀作为州长的成就有限，但他仍然能够解决一些民主党的优先事项。2023年，经过多年的努力，库珀终于能够在焦油脚跟州扩大医疗补助。他还优先考虑分歧较小的问题，如增加教师工资,儿童保育资金和宽带接入.
让库珀成为竞选伙伴的一个可能的不利之处是，他可能会在竞选活动中受到限制。根据州法律，任何时候州长离开这个州副州长成为代理州长这对于民主党人来说是一个问题，因为该州的副州长马克·罗宾逊是一位极具争议的共和党人。另一方面，库珀可能会取消任何行政命令或任命，只要他回到北卡罗莱纳州，所以这里可能没有那么多的负面影响，因为它第一次出现。与此同时，库珀的年龄让他与众不同:67岁的库珀比其他被审查的候选人都要老，在第二个副总统任期结束时将会是75岁左右。这可能会让哈里斯的竞选活动在一场年龄被证明是选民的一个重要问题的比赛中暂停，尽管这对希望在2028年或2032年为新一代领导人敞开大门的民主党人来说也是一个积极的消息。
可能性较小
美国运输部长皮特·布蒂吉格
皮特·布蒂吉格在全国范围内爆发在2020年的初选中，作为印第安纳州南本德的千禧年市长，从默默无闻中崛起，成为2020年爱荷华州党团会议的可能赢家(我们仍然不确定是谁真的赢得了会议)和新罕布什尔州初选亚军。虽然他的总统竞选失败了，但他在全国的声望最终为他在拜登的内阁中赢得了一席之地。
像Buttigieg这样的副总统候选人的一个可能的好处是，他有能力和意愿与不同的政治派别沟通;例如，在2020年竞选期间，他频繁出现在福克斯新闻频道这是他作为交通部长一直坚持的做法。他在民主党人中非常受欢迎，在辩论后进行的民意调查中，平均净支持率为+46.6个百分点，在美国公众中几乎没有下降。像万斯一样，他来自一个制造业失业后大幅下降20世纪下半叶，他在军队服役，被派往伊拉克和阿富汗。这些相似之处可能会使他在辩论中成为万斯的有力陪衬。
另一方面，Buttigieg也有一些包袱。在一些特别艰难的时期，他担任运输部长，管理着对波音公司的监督在一系列广为人知的灾难为了公司。在拜登总统任期的早期，有报道称哈里斯和布蒂吉格在政党方向上发生了冲突;虽然两人都否认了这些传言，但哈里斯可能不愿意选择一个被视为潜在的对手在党内。
42岁时，Buttigieg将成为美国历史上最年轻的副总统之一;只有六位副总统比他任期开始时还年轻。此外，以一名非白人女性和一名同性恋男性为主角的总统候选人可能不会像其他选择那样受到美国公众的广泛欢迎。虽然他在美国公众中的净支持率只是稍有下降，但他在国家舞台上已经呆了五年，与其他可能的候选人相比，他的成长空间可能更小。
伊利诺伊州州长J.B .普利兹克
虽然普利兹克的名字最近几天几乎出现在每一个副总统候选人名单上，但他在党内活动人士或普通民主党人中没有像其他许多竞争者一样引起那么多的谈论。这可能是因为他实际上并不那么受欢迎:在我们的平均支持率调查中，他的净支持率是名单上所有候选人中最差的，为-5.8分。他也是美国最不受欢迎的州长之一，根据我们四月份的分析(尽管他的净支持率仍为正)。但他的知名度也非常低，在自6月27日以来进行的民意调查中，平均只有27%的受访者对他有看法。这可以给他空间来提高他的数字。
Prtizker已经进步政策成就的可靠记录作为州长。也许最引人注目的是，他签署了一项全面的刑事司法改革法案该法案终止了草原州的现金保释，并要求警察佩戴随身相机等。这份简历可能有助于缓解一些进步人士的担忧，他们担心哈里斯在刑事司法方面的记录是她所在州的”顶级警察."
不过，最终普利兹克不太可能入选。他的净资产为35亿美元，是目前世界上最大的最富有的政治家在美国，这一事实可能会在金钱竞赛中帮助哈里斯，但几乎肯定不会受到两党工人阶级选民的欢迎。伊利诺伊州也是一个安全的蓝色州，所以普利茨克不会带来显着的家乡优势。他也是表示“失望”呼吁以色列和哈马斯停火，这可能会引起和夏皮罗一样的民主党人的关注。
密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默
2024年7月9日，密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默出现在“早安美国”节目中。
惠特莫一直被认为是民主党的后起之秀之一。作为一个重要摇摆州的州长，她是拜登(现为哈里斯)竞选团队的全国联合主席对副总裁候选名单并不陌生。尽管她声称不感兴趣，多家新闻媒体据报道她被要求提交审查材料哈里斯的竞选团队。
惠特莫一开始就处于相当强势的地位:她是候选名单上最受全国欢迎的政治家之一，在民主党人中的平均净支持率为+40点，在所有成年人中的平均净支持率大致持平。她还拥有比其他候选人更高的知名度，以及令人印象深刻的政策记录一系列引人注目的立法以及去年新成立的民主党州议会。她可以指出她在共和党控制的州议会的工作在她的第一个任期中，她证明了她可以跨通道工作。
但密歇根州州长并不是今年哈里斯竞选的最佳人选。首先，她是一名女性，一些民主党人对提名一名全女性总统候选人持谨慎态度(尽管其他人已经这样做了强烈支持它).虽然她有高支持率在她的家乡州，与其他州长相比，它确实处于中游位置。但也许她不太可能被选中的最大原因是因为她说她不想成为。的确，政治家们通常是否定的直到他们突然一个是，但是惠特莫有反复说她打算服满她的刑期作为州长。
明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·瓦尔兹
沃尔兹为哈里斯的竞选带来了两个可能有益的因素:深厚的建制派关系可能有利于筹款，以及对民主党选民有吸引力的进步立法历史。
沃尔兹领导着民主党州长协会，该组织提出了一个去年创下7150万美元的记录在他的领导下，比去年非选举年高出66%。他不太可能抢走哈里斯的风头，因为他是党内忠诚者的名声以及与党内机构的联系。他也因在明尼苏达州实施进步政策而闻名;在民主党于2022年完全控制了州议会后，瓦尔兹签署了法律娱乐用大麻合法化，制定更严格的枪支管制措施和保护堕胎权利，并签署了行政命令重申对性别确认护理的保护在这个州。
然而，尽管(或者可能因为)他有能力实现进步的优先事项，他相对不受欢迎;在2023年民调他在明尼苏达州的净支持率仅为+5.9个百分点，在我们有数据可查的州长中排名第12。他潜在的副总统候选人资格似乎并没有引起多大波澜;自6月27日以来，没有任何民意调查者将他纳入他们关于支持率的问题中，可以肯定地说，他在全国范围内相当不知名。
脚注
*与民主党党团会议的四名独立议员之一，参议员Kyrsten Sinema也没有签署该法案。
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race on Sunday set off a whirlwind of activity among Democrats to coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's pick to replace him. And while Harris seems to havesecured enough delegatesto win the Democratic nomination at the party's virtual roll call nominationnext week, speculation hasbeen swirlingaboutwho she'll pickto join her on the ticket, from ashortlist of roughly a dozenpotential running mates.
Not all vice presidential picks are created equal, though, so we took a look at the polls to see what Americans think about eight of the most-talked about names on the shortlist. Their resumes notwithstanding, some of these candidates are more popular than others, and most are broadly unfamiliar to the general public:
Among Democrats, though, the potential field is viewed quite favorably. Each of the top candidates (for whom we have data) has a net positive favorability rating among members of their own party, though again, some are much more widely known than others.
Withsuch a short time frameto vet and pick a running mate, the door is wide open for anyone on the shortlist to make their case for why they should be America's second-in-command. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some of the most (and less) likely names in the mix for the job, along with what the polls are saying about each candidate and what each could potentially bring to the ticket.
More likely
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona
Mark Kelly's resume alone makes him an attractive vice presidential pick. Before becoming a senator, he was a Navy captain andan astronaut, both professions thatautomatically bestowsomeamount of standingupon candidates seeking elected office. (While we don't have any polling on astronaut credibility, it is our firm belief that the majority of Americans think astronauts are cool.) Additionally, Kelly has been a leader in gun policy reform, co-founding one of theforemost gun violence prevention organizationsin the U.S. after his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head by a constituent.
The Arizona Senator also has arecord of winningmultipletough racesin akey swing state, building a profile as a pragmatic centrist focused on issues like health care affordability. During those runs, he wasone of the most prolific fundraisersin the Senate, which could endear him to a campaign that will beplaying catch-upin the money race against former President Donald Trump (although Harrisdoesn't seem to be having too many problemson that front so far). Kelly also represents a key border state, and has staked outtougher stances on immigrationthan some of his Democratic colleagues. That could help combat Republican attacks in a policy area that is seen asone of Harris's weak spots.
He's also quite popular: Three polls from this week showed that while only an average of 43 percent of respondents had an opinion of him, that opinion was positive, with net average favorable ratings of +2 percentage points among all adults nationwide and +35.3 points among Democrats. In polls conducted since the June 27 presidential debate, the former astronaut is the only potential VP pick on this list who has a net positive average favorability rating among the general public.
There are some potential downsides to choosing Kelly, though: Ina YouGov/Yahoo News pollfrom Monday that asked outright who respondents thought should be Harris's VP, Kelly ran near the bottom of the pack, though that could be due in part to low name recognition. He's also beencriticized by some labor unionsfor being one of only two Senate Democrats* to not formally sponsorthe PRO Act, which would make it easier for workplaces to unionize — though heclarified his support for the billWednesday. Additionally, the prospect of a special election to fill his seat in 2026, should the ticket win in November, might give the Harris campaign pause, since that special election would put another Democratic Senate seat in danger in a year when they would probably already beswimming against the tide.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
Josh Shapiro was first cast into the national spotlight in 2023, when an I-95 bridge collapse in Philadelphia madeheadlines across the country. While initial speculation was that rebuilding would take months, the highway actually reopened injust 12 days, earning Shapiro significant good press and a reputation as a politician who gets things done. Since then, he's continued to work across the aisle to pass compromise legislation: Pennsylvania is the only state in the country with a split legislature, so any bills require bipartisan support to become law.
Even so, Shapiro has been able to tackle big priorities in Pennsylvania on issues likeschool fundingandhealth care, which has earned him a bipartisan reputation and high approval ratings in the commonwealth: In ourlook earlier this year at governors' approval ratings, Shapiro had the eighth-highest net approval rating of any governor in America, at +25.9 points, and was the highest-rated swing state governor. That said, the first-term governor and former attorney general is still relatively unknown on a national stage; in an average of 7 national polls conducted since the June debate between Trump and Biden, just 37 percent of respondents had an opinion of Shapiro, with a net favorability of -1.3 points nationally and +18 among Democrats. So while he starts slightly underwater, he has plenty of room to grow with the public.
Running in the VP slot would be fairly low risk for Shapiro. If the campaign loses, he would presumably run for a second term as governor in 2026 and set himself up with a robust national profile if he decides to run for higher office. (If Shapiro became vice president, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would become the first Black governor of the commonwealth and the youngest governor in the nation.) Like Kelly, Shapiro's inclusion on the ticket could juice the campaign's support in a critical swing state where theparty has been trailing. Moreover, boosting Democratic turnout in the commonwealth could help ensure the party keeps control of the state House of Representatives, whichflipped to a Democratic majority in 2022for the first time in 12 years, and shore up Sen. Bob Casey in apotentially competitive Senate race.
On the other hand, Shapiro does come with some downsides for the Harris campaign. He's not always in lockstep with the Democratic Party on policy: He supportsschool vouchers, for example, and has a more moderate position on environmental issues likefracking, a big industry in Pennsylvania. These policy differences may make him a divisive figure within the party at a time when Harris will be looking to maintain theunity the party developed in the wake of Biden's exit. Shapiro'spro-Israel stancecould also be off-putting to some of the Democrats who criticized Biden on the same issue — including many younger and nonwhite voters that Harris's campaign will be hoping to turn out in force. A Harris-Shapiro ticket would be the first in American history not to include a white Christian (Shapiro is Jewish), which may be viewed as a liability in the ticket's broader appeal.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
One of the most buzzed-about potential VP picks is Andy Beshear, who is currentlythe most popular Democratic governor in the country. His popularity is even more impressive given that he hails from a state that voted for Trump by 26 percentage points in 2020. Beshear has endeared himself to Kentuckians through a combination of name recognition (his father is a popular former governor) and his response to various emergencies during his time in office.
Early in his tenure as governor, Beshear gained praise online forhis response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But his popularity really took hold aftera pair of devastating natural disasters: a tornado in western Kentucky and massive flooding on the eastern side of the state. Beshear's role as a "consoler-in-chief" during that time has been credited withhelping him win reelectionlast year in the deeply conservative state againsta formidable opponent.
At 46, Beshear is one of the youngest candidates on the VP shortlist and he's term-limited as governor, so he doesn't have all that many years left in state office anyway. (If he became vice president, his lieutenant governor would serve out the rest of his term.) While he's one of the only candidates on the list who doesn't hail from an important swing state, he could provide a counterweight to Trump's vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. Vance hasplayed up his Appalachian rootson the campaign trail, despite the fact that he isnot actually from the area, and Beshear, who governs one of thecore regions of Appalachia, has already taken tocriticizing the senatoras a "phony" with "no conviction."
But Beshear is poorly known outside of the Bluegrass State; in our average of national polls taken in July, he had one of the lowest name recognitions of any potential VP on our list, with just 27 percent of respondents expressing an opinion of him. That's not to say that he's disliked, though; that same average showed he had a net favorability rating of +17.3 among those in his own party, and was only ever-so-slightly underwater among all adults.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper
Harris seems to have a particular interest in putting North Carolina in play in November, so it's no surprise that Roy Cooper has appeared on her vetting lists. She's visited the state at leastseven times so far this year, appeared alongside Cooper at several events and seems to have apositive relationship with him. A Democrat hasn't won the state in a presidential election since Barack Obama in 2008, but margins since then have been thin: Trump carried it by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020. Notably, Cooper won both his gubernatorial races in 2016 and 2020, at the same time that Trump carried the state, so he may have some split-ticket appeal with moderate voters. Moreover, having Cooper on the ticket could improve the party's chances in atightly fought gubernatorial electionto fill Cooper's office.
Despite rumors swirling about his inclusion on the list of candidates being vetted by the Harris campaign, we've only seen one poll asking Americans their opinion of Cooper, and he was underwater by 2 points (though relatively few Americans knew him well enough to express an opinion about him). In surveysconducted in 2023, he had a net approval rating in North Carolina of +11.6 percentage points, putting him in the middle of the pack of governors nationwide. Like Shapiro, Cooper has been limited in what he can achieve as governor due to his state's Republican-led state legislature, but he's still been able to address some Democratic priorities. In 2023, after years of trying, Cooper finally was able toexpand Medicaid in the Tar Heel state. He's also prioritized less divisive issues likeincreasing teacher pay,funding for child careandbroadband access.
One possible downside of making Cooper a running mate is that he may be limited in how much he can campaign. According to state law, any time the governor leaves the state, thelieutenant governor becomes the acting governor, able to wield all the powers of the office — that's a problem for Democrats because the state's lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, is a highly controversial Republican. On the other hand, Cooper could cancel any executive orders or appointments as soon as he returns to North Carolina, so there may not be as much downside here as it first appears. Meanwhile, Cooper's age sets him apart: At 67, Cooper is older than the other candidates being vetted, and would be in his mid-70s by the end of a second vice presidential term. That could give the Harris campaign pause in a race where age has proved to be a significant issue for voters, though it could also be a positive for Democrats hoping to leave the door open for a new generation of leaders in 2028 or 2032.
Less likely
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigiegexploded onto the national scenein the 2020 primary race, rising from obscurity as the millennial mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to become the possible winner of the 2020 Iowa caucus (we're still not sure whoreally won that caucus) and runner-up in the New Hampshire primary. While his presidential campaign fizzled from there, his national popularity ultimately earned him a spot in Biden's cabinet.
One possible benefit of a vice presidential pick like Buttigieg is his ability and willingness to communicate across the political spectrum; during the 2020 campaign, for example, he madefrequent appearances on Fox News, a practice that he has continued as transportation secretary. He's extremely popular among Democrats, with a net favorability of +46.6 percentage points, on average, in polls conducted since the debate, and barely underwater with the American public. Like Vance, he's from a community thatsignificantly declined in the wake of manufacturing job lossesin the latter half of the 20th century, and he served in the military, deploying to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Those similarities might make him a good foil against Vance in a debate.
On the other hand, Buttigieg does come with some baggage. He's served as transportation secretary during some particularly rough times, managing theoversight of Boeingduring a series ofwell-publicized disastersfor the company. And early on in the Biden presidency, there werereports that Harris and Buttigieg clashed over the direction of the party; while both have denied these rumors, Harris may be reluctant to pick a running mate who has been seen as apotential rivalwithin the party.
At 42, Buttigieg would be among the youngest vice presidents in American history; just six vice presidents have been younger than he would be at the start of his term. Moreover, a presidential ticket featuring a nonwhite woman and a gay man might not be as broadly palatable to the American public as other options. And while his net favorability among the American public is only a tad underwater, with five years of time on the national stage, he may have less room to grow than other possible candidates.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker
While Pritzker's name has appeared on virtually every VP shortlist in recent days, he has not generated the same amount of chatter among party activists or rank-and-file Democrats as many of the other contenders. That may be because he's not actually all that popular: In our average of favorability polls, he had the worst net favorability rating of any candidate on this list, at -5.8 points. And he's one of the least popular governors in America as well, according toour analysis from April(though he still has a positive net approval rating). But he also has extremely low name recognition, with an average of just 27 percent of respondents holding an opinion about him in polls conducted since June 27. That could give him room to improve his numbers.
Prtizker hasa solid record of progressive policy achievementsas governor. Perhaps most notably, he signeda sweeping criminal justice reform billinto law that ended cash bail in the Prairie State and required police officers to wear body cameras, among other provisions. That resume item could help soothe worries among some progressives about Harris's record on criminal justice as her state's "top cop."
Ultimately, though, Pritzker is an unlikely pick. With a net worth of $3.5 billion, he is currently therichest politicianin the U.S., a fact that could help Harris in the money race but would almost certainly play poorly with working-class voters of both parties. Illinois is also a safe blue state, so Pritzker would not bring a notable home-state advantage to the ticket. He's alsoexpressed "disappointment"with calls for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which could present similar concerns for Democrats as Shapiro.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer appears on "Good Morning America," on July 9, 2024.
Whitmer has long been considered one of the Democratic Party's rising stars. The governor of an important swing state, she's a national co-chair of the Biden (now Harris) campaign andno stranger to a VP shortlist. Despite her claims that she is not interested,multiple news outletshave reported thatshe's been asked to submit vetting materialsby the Harris campaign.
Whitmer starts in a fairly strong position: She's one of the most nationally popular politicians on the shortlist, with an average net favorability of +40 points among Democrats and a roughly-even average net favorability among all adults. She also has a much higher name ID than other candidates in contention, as well as an impressive policy record to run on, having passed aslate of high-profile legislationalongside a newly Democratic state legislature last year. And she can point toher work with the Republican-controlled state legislatureduring her first term as proof that she can work across the aisle.
But the Michigan governor isn't the most natural fit for the Harris ticket this year. For one, she's a woman, and some Democrats are wary about nominating an all-female presidential ticket (though others haveadvocated strongly for it). And while she hasa high approval ratingin her home state, it's solidly middle-of-the-pack compared to other governors. But perhaps the biggest reason she isn't likely to be picked is becauseshe's said that she doesn't want to be. It's true that politicians areoften a nountil they'resuddenly a yes, but Whitmer hasrepeatedly saidthat she plans toserve out her full termas governor.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz
Walz brings two elements to the Harris campaign that could be beneficial: deep establishment party connections that could be a boon to fundraising and a history of progressive lawmaking that will appeal to Democratic voters.
Walz leads theDemocratic Governors Association, and the organization raised arecord $71.5 million last yearunder his leadership, 66 percent higher than the last non-election year. He's unlikely to steal the spotlight from Harris, given his reputation as a party loyalist and ties to the party apparatus. He also has a reputation for enacting progressive policy in Minnesota; after Democrats took full control of the state legislature in 2022, Walz signed lawslegalizing recreational marijuana, enactingstricter gun control measuresandprotecting abortion rights, and signed an executive orderreaffirming protections for gender-affirming carein the state.
However, despite (or maybe because of) his ability to deliver on progressive priorities, he's relatively unpopular; in2023 polls, his net approval rating in Minnesota was just +5.9 percentage points, the 12th-worst among governors for whom we had data available. And his potential VP candidacy doesn't seem to be making a lot of waves; no pollsters have included him in their questions about favorability since June 27, and it's probably safe to say that he's fairly unknown nationwide.
Footnotes
*One of the four independents who caucus with the Democrats, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, has also not signed on to the bill.
