副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯取代总统乔·拜登成为民主党候选人，可能会使选举战场局限于典型的几个摇摆州，因为选举地图似乎正在迅速向共和党倾斜。
在拜登上个月毁灭性的辩论表现之后，共和党人夸口说，民主党人担心像新罕布什尔州、新墨西哥州、弗吉尼亚州甚至新泽西州这样的蓝色和蓝色倾向的州会突然出现。但现在，两党的工作人员都预测，如果有一位不受如此沉重包袱困扰的民主党提名人，这些州就会退出竞选，将竞选重新调整到铁锈地带和阳光地带。
一位熟悉哈里斯竞选策略的消息人士说:“她肯定会帮助我们少防守。”。"根据早期民意调查，那些倾向于蓝色的州在辩论后变得更有竞争力，现在似乎又回来了."
在上个月的辩论后，民主党的警报很高，当时拜登的笨拙表现让民主党人陷入恐慌，并让共和党人梦想着压倒性的胜利。
对于传统的摇摆州，如锈带的密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星以及阳光带的亚利桑那、佐治亚、内华达和北卡罗来纳的担忧加剧了，因为讨论必须支持民主党应该轻松获胜但可能证明具有竞争力的州，因为拜登的民调数字下降了。
新墨西哥州圣达菲县民主党主席亨利·罗伊巴尔说:“我几乎每天都接到表示担忧的电话。
现在，“新墨西哥州从地图上消失了，”他说。
其他地方的情况也是如此。
与传统上不竞争的州的特工的谈话呼应了罗伊巴尔的说法，即使他们认为前总统唐纳德·特朗普仍然会努力赢得他们的选举人票，而且没有明确的民调来证明他可以。
辩论结束后，新泽西州一名资深民主党策略师坚持认为，拜登在2020年以大约16个百分点的优势赢得该州后，本可以以一个位数的优势赢得该州。该人士称，该州现在“完全不在考虑范围内”。
一些共和党人并不完全信服。
哈里斯在2020年总统竞选中表现不佳，不得不在初选投票前退出，她在新生竞选活动开始时的支持率很低。虽然对哈里斯来说，倾向于蓝色的州仍然比传统的摇摆州更安全，但共和党人坚持认为，任何失误都可能使他们继续留任。
“这完全取决于卡玛拉·哈里斯如何开展竞选活动，以及她在总统竞选的巨大压力下如何表现。她在竞选2020年提名时表现不佳，”共和党民调专家惠特·艾尔斯说。“如果她比当时好了很多，那么可以想象，这些州可能会再次被取消。另一方面，如果她表现不好，我认为所有这些州都有可能成为特朗普的接班人。”
特朗普没有放弃这些州。他对哈里斯的记录进行了猛烈攻击，称她为“加州自由主义者”，并将于周六在明尼苏达州的圣克劳德与他的竞选伙伴俄亥俄州参议员万斯(JD Vance)举行第二次联合集会，在这个自1972年以来没有共和党总统候选人获胜的州激发他的选民。
“随着越来越多的选民了解自由主义的卡玛拉·哈里斯有多危险，特朗普总统在这些传统民主党据点的机会只会越来越好，”特朗普竞选发言人卡罗琳·莱维特说。
尽管如此，其他共和党人承认，哈里斯的候选人资格带来了比拜登在民主党候选人名单上领先时更大的阻力。突显这一点的是，周四公布的纽约时报/锡耶纳学院(New York Times/Siena College)民意调查发现，哈里斯和特朗普在统计上打成平手，比本月早些时候的同一项民意调查有所改善，当时特朗普领先拜登6个百分点。
“我预计哈里斯会更强。我的意思是，无论表现如何，你都不能不变得更强，”新罕布什尔州共和党策略师迈克·丹尼希说。“所以现在的问题只是她在巡回演讲和辩论中表现如何。”
弗吉尼亚州共和党策略师扎克·罗迪补充说:“现在知道具体情况还为时过早，但我的总体总结是，她可能会止住流血并提高发言权，但这并不一定意味着她能够赢得她需要的州。”
现在，这场比赛预计将回到七个摇摆州，这些州在比赛开始时位于战场地图的顶部，熟悉竞选战略的消息人士告诉美国广播公司新闻部，“我们看到这场比赛回归到我们预期的总统前辩论。”
预计所有七个州都将以极其微弱的优势做出决定，两个竞选团队都投入了数百万美元。哈里斯已经在摇摆州威斯康辛州开始了竞选活动。
哈里斯的竞选团队周三发布了一份备忘录，称“打算在这些州中的每一个州发动进攻，并拥有这样做的资源和竞选基础设施。”
竞选经理詹妮弗·欧玛利·狄龙写道:“这场竞选将会势均力敌，将会是一场艰苦的战斗，但副总统哈里斯处于强势地位——她将会获胜。”。
尽可能地将共和党的延伸州排除在外，是她在真正的战场上保持竞争力的关键部分。竞选资金的宇宙是巨大的，但却是有限的——花在新泽西州或新墨西哥州的每一美元都不是花在亚利桑那州或密歇根州的。
“目前，唯一可能改变的是地面游戏，”一名全国共和党策略师表示。“他们会将资源从特定的摇摆州转移到其他州，因为地图不再像民主党那样大，不再需要捍卫领土了吗?”
哈里斯防止特朗普压倒性胜利的能力不仅对她来说至关重要，对民主党人对众议院和参议院的希望也很重要。
在摇摆州和亲蓝州都举行了几场关键的向下投票的比赛，哈里斯在战场上保持领先优势的能力以及在她获胜的州扩大优势的能力——而不是像拜登猜测的那样，特朗普大获全胜——将是国会竞争者的巨大福音。
“这很关键。如果你是参议员或州长候选人或国会候选人，你可以领先几个百分点，三个或四个百分点。你不可能领先10或12个百分点，”艾尔斯说。
他补充说，拜登“肯定会被淘汰。”
In replacing Biden, Harris could keep blue states in the Democratic fold
Vice President Kamala Harris' replacement of President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket could keep the electoral battlefield confined to the typical handful of swing states after the electoral map appeared to be mushrooming in Republicans' favor.
After Biden's ruinous debate performance last month, Republicans boasted and Democrats feared that blue and blue-leaning states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia and even New Jersey were suddenly in play. But now, operatives in both parties predicted that having a Democratic nominee who's not dogged by such weighty baggage takes those states back off the table, recalibrating the race back to the Rust and Sun Belts.
"She definitely helps us play less defense," one source familiar with Harris' campaign's strategy said. "States that were blue-leaning states that became more competitive post-debate based on early polling seem to be shifting back."
Democratic alarm was high after last month's debate, when Biden's bumbling performance sent Democrats into a tizzy and had Republicans dreaming about a landslide victory.
Handwringing over traditional swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the Rust Belt and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina in the Sun Belt was exacerbated by discussions of having to bolster states where Democrats should waltz to victory but could prove competitive as Biden's poll numbers cratered.
"I was getting calls pretty much on a daily basis with concern," said Henry Roybal, the chair of the Santa Fe County Democratic Party in New Mexico.
Now, "New Mexico is off the map," he said.
The story is the same elsewhere.
Conversations with operatives in traditionally noncompetitive states echoed Roybal's account, even if they believe that former President Donald Trump still would have struggled to carry their electoral votes and there wasn't definitive polling to prove he could.
After the debate, one senior New Jersey Democratic strategist insisted Biden could have won their state by a mid-single-digit margin after winning it by about 16 points in 2020. The state is now "completely off the table," the person said.
Some Republicans aren't entirely convinced.
Harris ran a dysfunctional 2020 presidential campaign and had to drop out before any primary votes were cast, and her approval ratings at the start of her nascent campaign are low. And while the blue-leaning states are still safer for Harris than traditional swing states, Republicans maintain any slip ups could keep them in play.
"It all depends upon how Kamala Harris runs her campaign and how she performs under the enormous pressure of a presidential contest. She did not acquit herself well when she ran for the 2020 nomination," said GOP pollster Whit Ayres." If she's a whole lot better than she was then, then conceivably, those states could be off the table again. On the other hand, if she does not perform well, I think all those states are potential Trump pickups."
Trump is not giving up on those states. He is blitzing Harris with attacks on her record, labeling her a "California liberal," and will hold his second joint rally with Ohio Sen. JD Vance, his running mate, in St. Cloud, Minn, on Saturday, firing up his voters in a state no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1972.
"As more voters understand how dangerously liberal Kamala Harris is, President Trump's chances in these traditionally-Democrat strongholds will only get better," said Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.
Still, other Republicans concede that Harris' candidacy introduces stiffer headwinds than existed when Biden topped Democrats' ticket. Underscoring the point, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday found Harris and Trump statistically tied, an improvement from earlier this month when the same poll found Trump ahead of Biden by 6 points.
"I expect Harris will be stronger. I mean, you just can't help but be stronger, regardless of performance level," said New Hampshire GOP strategist Mike Dennehy. "And so now it's just a question of how well she does on the stump and in debates."
"It's too early to know exactly, but my overall summary is she probably stems the bleeding and raises the floor, but it doesn't necessarily mean that she's going to be able to put away states that she needs to," Virginia-based Republican strategist Zack Roday added.
Now, the race is expected to shift back to the seven swing states that were at the top of the battleground map at the start of the race, with the source familiar with the campaign's strategy telling ABC News "we're seeing a reversion to what we expected this race to be pre-presidential debate."
All seven states are anticipated to be decided by razor-thin margins, with millions of dollars dumped in by both campaigns. Already, Harris has hit the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a marquee swing state.
Harris' campaign released a memo Wednesday saying it "intend[s] to play offense in each of these states, and have the resources and campaign infrastructure to do so."
"This campaign will be close, it will be hard fought, but Vice President Harris is in a position of strength – and she’s going to win," Campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon wrote.
Taking Republicans' stretch states off the table as much as she can is a key part of remaining competitive in the true battlegrounds. The universe of campaign finance is gargantuan but finite -- and every dollar spent in New Jersey or New Mexico is one not spent in Arizona or Michigan.
"The one thing it likely changes is, right now, the ground game," said one national GOP strategist. "Are they going to shift resources out of specific swing states into other states because the map doesn't feel as large for Democrats anymore to have to defend territory?"
And Harris' ability to prevent a landslide for Trump is not just key for her -- it's also important for Democrats' hopes for the House of Representatives and Senate.
Several key down-ballot races are being held in both swing states and blue-leaning states, and Harris' ability to keep the margin at the top of the ticket competitive in battlegrounds and expansive in states she wins -- rather than a blowout for Trump, as was speculated with Biden -- would be a massive boon to congressional contenders.
"It's critical. If you're a Senate or a governor candidate or a congressional candidate, you can run ahead of the top of the ticket by a handful of points, three or four. You can't run ahead at the top of the ticket by 10 or 12 points," Ayres said.
Biden, he added, "definitely could have gotten blown out."
