对于中西部的政治来说，这是忙碌的几天。上周二，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·瓦尔兹作为她的民主党竞选伙伴，这是过去60年来明尼苏达州人第四次成为民主党副总统候选人。本周，明尼苏达州和威斯康星州将举行联邦和州立法机构的初选，主导8月13日举行的初选(康涅狄格州和佛蒙特州也有初选，但没有任何重大竞争)。
保罗·班扬的斧头不会出现在菜单上，但在明尼苏达州和威斯康星州举行的美国参议院和众议院的六场备受瞩目的初选中，又有一位进步的在任者，他对以色列的观点引发了一场初选挑战，倾向于建立和反叛思想的共和党人之间的党内冲突，以及作为顶部樱桃的少量争议。
明尼苏达州
观看的比赛:美国参议院;第二、第五和第七国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上9点
在当天最受关注的比赛中，民主党众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔面临着前明尼阿波利斯市议员唐·塞缪尔斯的主要挑战第五区。奥马尔挡住了塞缪尔仅领先2个百分点2022年，复赛也是更大的党内冲突以色列和哈马斯在加沙的战争。作为进步的众议院民主党人的非正式团体“小队”的一员，奥马尔一直是一名以色列政策的著名批评家。这种观点已经在2024年两名队员的初选失败中发挥了作用:亲以色列的团体，特别是联合民主项目——一个隶属于美国以色列公共事务委员会的超级政治行动委员会——花费巨资驱逐纽约众议员贾马尔·鲍曼在六月和密苏里州众议员柯里·布什上周。
然而，奥马尔拥有更强的地位比她在2022年做的还要多。首先，她已经建立了一个更大的货币优势筹集680万美元截至7月24日——几乎是她在2022年抚养长大—这远远超过了140万美元塞缪尔带来了。萨缪尔斯也几乎没有得到任何外部支出支持，而一个团体部分由AIPAC的超级PAC资助2022年花了62.5万美元支持他。相比之下，奥马尔得到了大约51.7万美元的外部支持，根据OpenSecrets。此外，AIPAC和其他主要亲以色列团体我没有支持塞缪尔斯或者充当管道为他的竞选捐款的个人捐助者，正如他们所做的为两位挑战者打败了鲍曼和布什。
奥马尔充分利用了她的经济优势，比塞缪尔花费更多接近六比一，而上次大约是二比一。然而她没有做任何电视广告2022年，奥马尔这次更认真地对待塞缪尔，他在景点上花了260万美元，而塞缪尔只花了3.2万美元，根据一项影响。这我们看到的小投票还指出了奥马尔初选的胜利:最近唯一的一次调查是7月下旬代表奥马尔的竞选团队进行的民意调查由莱克研究伙伴发现她以60%比33%领先于塞缪尔。尽管如此，塞缪尔斯确实收到了一笔迟到的捐款他的竞选，提醒我们为什么要关注这场比赛。
在明尼苏达州的竞选中参议院共和党人可能会选择更有争议的人选作为党的提名人，这可能会削弱他们击败民主党参议员艾米·克洛布查尔(Amy Klobuchar)的本来就微弱的机会。在5月的党代会上，共和党代表出人意料地支持了罗伊斯·怀特这位前职业篮球运动员和前黑人的命也是命活动家已经转变成一个民粹主义的，支持特朗普的人物。怀特(姓氏)拥抱了各种阴谋论使用时反犹太、厌女和恐同的语言。
政党积极分子更喜欢怀特，而不是前美国海军情报官员乔·弗雷泽看起来很有潜力，但它有待观察更多的初选选民会支持谁。弗雷泽原本计划“遵守”该党的支持——当地的说法是，如果有人支持，候选人就会退出——但他决定参加初选由于怀特的争议和政党领导人的担忧关于怀特与克洛布查尔的竞争能力。然而，两位候选人都没有筹集到多少资金:怀特已经赚了13.3万美元弗雷泽呢只有68000美元—与Klobuchar的大相径庭将近1900万美元。此外，没有外部团体都参与了初选。唯一的我们看到的投票测试潜在的大选对决，所有这些都显示Klobuchar远远领先于任何一位共和党人。
明尼苏达州竞争最激烈的众议院席位是有点偏蓝的第二区在明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗以南的郊区和远郊，民主党众议员安吉·克雷格正在寻求第四个任期。现在，共和党提名竞争似乎在7月中旬完成时，泰勒拉姆律师宣布他会退出以高级顾问的身份加入前总统唐纳德·特朗普的竞选。拉姆赢得了地区支持大会4月，前联邦检察官乔·泰拉布(Joe Teirab)是一位更倾向于建制的候选人，但泰拉布继续竞选，而不是遵守支持。拉姆的离开似乎让该党避免了一场潜在的丑陋的初选，因为泰拉布有国会领导基金—领先的超级政治行动委员会众议院共和党——已经激怒了拉姆170万美元到$420,000截至7月24日。
然而奇怪的是，这场初选并没有结束。尽管法宝和全国共和党竞选委员会支持Teirab之后，无论是地区党还是Rahm都没有效仿。事实上论坛报上周报道的明星拉姆可能仍在进行一场虚幻的竞选——他的竞选邮件仍在选民的邮箱里——当地保守派认为，如果拉姆赢得初选(他的名字仍在初选中).自拉姆退出以来，无论是地区党还是拉姆都没有为泰拉布背书，拉姆的邮件仍然到达选民的邮箱。尽管如此，拉姆自从加入特朗普竞选团队以来，几乎没有筹集到什么资金—他的总收入实际上是负数由于退还捐款——不完全是一个仍然活跃的运动的迹象。但如果拉姆获胜，共和党将需要他作为候选人全面参与，否则将几乎没有追索权——主要胜利者将在大选投票中，除非死亡、丧失能力或失去资格。
最后，我们正在密切关注明尼苏达州共和党初选第七区在这个州的西部。从理论上讲，共和党众议员米歇尔·菲施巴赫(Michelle Fischbach)看起来胜券在握。毕竟，她已经长大了将近160万美元，远远超过了赚了182，000美元商人史蒂夫·博伊德。她也有特朗普的背书。但是博伊德利用了反体制的热情在地区的政党支持大会上4月，代表们决定不正式支持任何候选人——博伊德认为这一举动是他的新贵竞选的胜利。然而，当我们关注这场竞争时，菲施巴赫似乎更有可能赢得再次提名。毕竟，代表她的竞选活动进行的民意调查发现她的支持率领先博伊德约50个百分点。
威斯康星州
观看的比赛:第三和第八国会选区
投票结束:东部时间晚上9点
在2024年周期的早期，威斯康星州参议院比赛看起来像一场赛跑可能是竞争激烈的共和党初选决定谁来挑战民主党参议员塔米·鲍德温。然而，大选对决几乎已成定局，因为共和党商人埃里克·霍夫德(Eric Hovde)基本上清除了障碍，使他稳操胜券，赢得提名。取而代之的是，我们必须向下看感兴趣的种族的选票，特别是两个众议院选举。(威斯康星州重新绘制的州立法地图也可能提供有趣的原始素材，因为可以对两个宪法修正案问题的投票这对该国行政和立法权力的平衡产生了影响。)
威斯康星州竞争最激烈的众议院席位是第三区稍微倾向于共和党的地盘无漂移区由共和党众议员德里克·范·奥登持有。在与范·奥登的竞争中，民主党初选已成为女商人丽贝卡·库克和州众议员卡特里娜·尚克兰之间的双向竞争。库克在2022年的初选中获得第二名十多年来，Shankland一直代表着该地区中北部的一个亲蓝地区。库克在筹款方面占了上风赚了200万美元去尚克兰家$868,000。但是我们还没有看到任何公开的测量初选状态的调查从去年开始，所以谁占上风还不清楚。
在最后几周，两位候选人就经验和政治立场展开了唇枪舌剑。库克来自一个奶农家庭已经投自己作为一个拥有工人阶级价值观的局外人，又不是职业政客——这是对尚克兰的含蓄抨击。与此同时，尚克兰夸大了她的成就作为一名立法者，他认为库克缺乏立法知识在国会中出色地代表该地区。
作为温和的蓝狗政治行动党，两名候选人之间有一些意识形态上的距离支持库克当尚克兰有更多的支持来自进步和劳工团体。外部团体以支持温和派民主党人或反对进步派而闻名的人已经花了35.7万美元来帮助库克和攻击尚克兰，而我们应得的进步团体领导人已经花了19.4万美元来帮助尚克兰。争论特别是出现了反对桑克兰的新民主党多数党发布广告，声称立法者阻止了州医疗福利的扩大——这是对库克的攻击也部署了。与此同时，尚克兰的阵营回击道库克以前的工作作为一个政治筹款人，这证明她不是外人。
威斯康辛州唯一一场开放席位的竞选是在倾向共和党的阵营中进行的第八区在该州的东北部。支持建制派的共和党众议员迈克·加拉格尔令人惊讶地宣布在二月他不会寻求连任，后来4月下旬辞职。接替加拉格尔的共和党三方初选已经形成，其中包括商人托尼·威德、前州参议员罗杰·罗斯和州参议员安德烈·雅克。韦德在筹款方面一直处于领先地位859，000美元但他自筹了一半以上的资金。相比之下，罗斯已经赚了72.8万美元没有掏自己的口袋，而雅克落后了有244000美元。罗斯在这里有一些历史，拥有在2010年的初选中获得第二名同时也是他的侄子前共和党众议员托比·罗斯他曾在这个地区任职多年。
候选人都将自己描绘成与特朗普紧密结盟的保守派战士。对韦德有益的是，特朗普在4月份支持了他，和Wied已投放广告这位前总统在镜头前直截了当地说，他称赞韦德是“美国第一勇士”，同时抨击罗斯是“RINO”，他“不是马加的朋友”但是罗斯也试图将自己与特朗普联系起来称自己是“特朗普保守派”，将努力帮助特朗普完成美墨边境的一堵墙。一个外部团体，要么畅所欲言，要么卷铺盖走人，已经花了100万美元用于帮助罗斯或攻击他的对手，其中大部分支出转到广告批评韦德是一个“圆滑”的石油和天然气高管，据称他试图为自己的利益提高天然气价格。对他来说，雅克已经打起来了他的反建制证书七月辩论中的唯一候选人谁同意特朗普关于2020年大选被“偷走”的说法。
6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin
It's been a busy few days for politics in the Midwest. Last Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harrisselected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walzas her running mate on the Democratic ticket, the fourth time in the last 60 years that a Minnesotan will be the Democratic vice presidential nominee. And this week, Minnesota and Wisconsin will hold primaries for federal and state legislative offices, dominating the slate of primaries happening on Aug. 13 (Connecticut and Vermont also have primaries but don't have any major contests).
Paul Bunyan's Axewon't be on the menu, but six high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin feature yet another progressive incumbent whose views on Israel have helped spark a primary challenge, intraparty conflicts between establishment-inclined and insurgent-minded Republicans and a smattering of controversy as a cherry on top.
Minnesota
Races to watch:U.S. Senate; 2nd, 5th and 7th congressional districts
Polls close:9 p.m. Eastern
In the day's most-watched race, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar faces a primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels in the solidly blue5th District. Omar fended off Samuelsby just 2 percentage pointsin 2022, and the rematch is also part of alarger intraparty conflictover the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. As a member of The Squad, an informal group of progressive House Democrats, Omar has been aprominent critic of Israel's policies. Such views have already played a role in the primary defeats of two Squad members in 2024: Pro-Israel groups, particularly United Democracy Project — a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — spent heavily to oustNew York Rep. Jamaal Bowmanin June andMissouri Rep. Cori Bushlast week.
However, Omarholds a stronger positionthan she did in 2022. For one thing, she's built up a much larger monetary edge byraising $6.8 millionas of July 24 — almost three times as much asshe'd raised in 2022— which is far more than the$1.4 millionSamuels has brought in. Samuels has also received almost no outside spending support, whereas a grouppartially funded by AIPAC's super PACspent $625,000 to back him in 2022. By comparison, Omar has received about $517,000 in outside support,according to OpenSecrets. Additionally, AIPAC and other major pro-Israel groupshaven't endorsed Samuelsorserved as conduitsfor individual contributors to donate to his campaign,as they didforthe two challengerswho defeated Bowman and Bush.
Omar has used her financial advantage to full effect, outspending Samuelsnearly six-to-one, compared with around two-to-one last time. Whereasshe didn't run any TV adsin 2022, Omar is taking Samuels much more seriously this time by spending $2.6 million on spots to just $32,000 by Samuels,according to AdImpact. Thelittle polling we've seenalso points to an Omar primary win: The only recent survey was a poll conducted on behalf of Omar's campaign in late Julyby Lake Research Partnersthat found her ahead of Samuels 60 percent to 33 percent. Still, Samuelsdid get a late surge in contributionsto his campaign, a reminder of why we're keeping an eye on this contest.
In Minnesota's race forSenate, Republicans might go for a more controversial choice as the party's nominee, potentially curtailing their already-meager chances of defeating Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. At the state party's convention in May, GOP delegatessurprisingly endorsed Royce White, a former professional basketball player and onetime Black Lives Matter activist whohas transformed into a populist, pro-Trump figure. Whitehas embracedvarious conspiracy theorieswhile usingantisemitic, misogynistic and homophobic language.
Party activists preferred White over former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Joe Fraser, wholooked like a potential favorite, but itremains to be seenwhom the larger primary electorate will back. Fraser originally planned to "abide" by the party's endorsement — local parlance for a candidate withdrawing if someone else is endorsed — but hedecided to run in the primarydue to White's controversies andconcerns among party leadersabout White's ability to compete with Klobuchar. Still, neither candidate has raised much money: Whitehas brought in $133,000and Fraserjust $68,000— a far cry from Klobuchar'snearly $19.0 million. Moreover, no outside groupshave gotten involved in the primary. The onlypolling we've seentests potential general election matchups, all of which show Klobuchar well ahead of either Republican.
Minnesota's most competitive House seat is the somewhat blue-leaning2nd Districtin the suburbs and exurbs south of Minneapolis-St. Paul, where Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is seeking a fourth term. Now, the GOP nomination contest appeared to be done in mid-July when attorney Tayler Rahm announcedhe would withdrawto join former President Donald Trump's campaign as a senior adviser. Rahmhad won the district endorsement conventionin April over former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, a more establishment-aligned candidate, but Teirab continued to campaign rather than abide by the endorsement. Rahm's departure seemed to put the party in a position to avoid a potentially ugly primary, as Teirab has the backing ofthe Congressional Leadership Fund—the leading super PACfor the House GOP — and had outraised Rahm$1.7 millionto$420,000as of July 24.
Yet bizarrely, this primary isn't over. AlthoughTrumpandthe National Republican Campaign Committeehave backed Teirab, neither the district party nor Rahm have followed suit. In fact, thethe Star Tribune reported last weekthat Rahm may still be running a phantom campaign — his campaign mailers have still arrived in voters' mailboxes — and that local conservatives believe Rahm will actively run in the general if he wins the primary (his nameremains on the primary ballot). Since Rahm dropped out, neither the district party nor Rahm have endorsed Teirab, and Rahm's mailers have still arrived in voters' mailboxes. Still, Rahm has raised little since moving to the Trump campaign —his total receipts were in fact negativedue to refunded donations — not exactly a sign of a still-active campaign. But were Rahm to win, the GOP would need him to fully engage as a candidate and would have little recourse otherwise — the primary victor will be on the general election ballot barring death, incapacitation or becoming ineligible.
Lastly, we're keeping an eye on the GOP primary in Minnesota's solidly red7th Districtin the western part of the state. On paper, Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach looks like a safe bet to win. After all, she's raisednearly $1.6 million, far more than the$182,000 brought inby businessman Steve Boyd. She alsohas Trump's endorsement. But Boyd tapped into anti-establishment fervorat the district's party endorsement conventionin April, where the delegates decided against formally endorsing any candidate — a move Boyd deemed a victory for his upstart campaign. Yet while we're monitoring this contest, Fischbach seems more likely than not to win renomination. After all,polls conducted on behalf of her campaignfound her polling around 50 points ahead of Boyd.
Wisconsin
Races to watch:3rd and 8th congressional districts
Polls close:9 p.m. Eastern
Earlier in the 2024 cycle, Wisconsin'sSenatecontest looked like a race thatcould feature a highly-competitive GOP primaryto decide who takes on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. However, the general election matchup is all but set because Republican businessman Eric Hovde has essentially cleared the field, making him a shoo-in to win the nomination. Instead, we have to look down the ballot for races of interest, specifically two House elections. (Wisconsin's redrawn state legislative maps could alsoprovide interesting primary fodder, as couldthe vote for two constitutional amendment questionswith implications for the balance of executive and legislative powers in the state.)
The most competitive House seat in Wisconsin is the3rd District, slightly Republican-leaning turf in theDriftless Areaheld by GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden. In the race to face Van Orden, the Democratic primary has become a two-way contest between businesswoman Rebecca Cooke and state Rep. Katrina Shankland. Cookefinished second in the 2022 primaryfor this seat, while Shankland has represented a blue-leaning area in the north-central part of the district for more than a decade. Cooke has the upper hand in fundraising, havingbrought in $2.0 millionto Shankland's$868,000. But we haven't seen any publicly available surveys measuring the state of this primary racesince last year, so it's unclear who has the upper hand.
In the final weeks, the two candidates have traded blows over experience and political positions. Hailing from a dairy farming family, Cookehas cast herselfas an outsider with working class values who isn't a career politician — an implicit shot at Shankland. Meanwhile, Shanklandhas played up her accomplishmentsas a legislator while arguing that Cookelacks the legislative know-howto ably represent the district in Congress.
There's some ideological distance between the two candidates, as the moderate Blue Dog PAChas endorsed Cookewhile Shanklandhas more backingfrom progressive and labor groups.Outside groupsknown for supporting moderate Democrats or opposing progressive ones have spent $357,000 to boost Cooke and attack Shankland, while the progressive group Leaders We Deserve has spent $194,000 to help Shankland. Controversyhas particularly arisenover an ad run by New Democratic Majority, an anti-Shankland group, which contends that the legislator blocked an expansion of state health care benefits — an attack Cookehas also deployed. Meanwhile, Shankland's camp has hit back by pointing toCooke's previous workas a political fundraiser, which belies her outsider credentials.
Wisconsin's only open-seat race is in the comfortably Republican-leaning8th Districtin the northeastern part of the state. Establishment-aligned GOP Rep. Mike Gallaghersurprisingly announcedin Februarythat he wouldn't seek reelection and then laterresigned in late April. A three-way Republican primary to succeed Gallagher has developed, involving businessman Tony Wied, former state Sen. Roger Roth and state Sen. André Jacque. Wied has led the way in fundraisingwith $859,000, but he's self-funded more than half of that. By contrast, Rothhas brought in $728,000without dipping into his own pocket, while Jacque has trailed behindwith $244,000. Rothhas some history here, havingfinished second in the 2010 primaryfor this seat while also being the nephew offormer Republican Rep. Toby Roth, who held a previous version of this district for many years.
The candidates have all portrayed themselves as conservative fighters closely aligned with Trump. Helpfully for Wied,Trump endorsed him in April, and Wiedhas run adsfeaturing the former president speaking straight to the camera, in which he praises Wied as an "America First warrior" while knocking Roth as a "RINO" who is "no friend of MAGA." But Rothhas also tried to link himself to Trump, calling himself a "Trump conservative" who'll fight to help Trump finish a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. An outside group, Speak Free or Die PAC,has spent$1.0 million to help Roth or attack his opponents, with much of that spendinggoing to adscriticizing Wied as a "slick" oil and gas executive who supposedly tried to raise gas prices for his own benefit. For his part, Jacquehas played uphis anti-establishment credentials and wasthe only candidate at a July debatewho agreed with Trump's claims that the 2020 election had been "stolen."
