根据提议的加沙停火和释放人质协议的条款,以色列据几位了解谈判进展的美国官员透露,在协议的最初几周,只有大约12名在哈马斯10月7日袭击中被俘的人活着回家。
拜登政府认为,以色列的不利回报是促成结束冲突的主要障碍,也是促使其推动谈判越过终点线的运动重新变得紧迫的因素之一。
白宫称谈判于2007年恢复埃及本周,但迄今为止,调解人未能成功鼓励哈马斯签署一项旨在让谈判重回正轨的过渡性提议,以色列已经同意了该提议。
美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯周一在访问以色列时表示,“我们永远不会放弃,但挑战是,这件事拖得越久,越多的人质将遭受痛苦——可能会死亡——以及越多其他可能让事情变得不可能的事情发生。”。
美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)审查的文件详细介绍了协议的框架,美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在5月底的讲话中部分概述了这一框架。文件规定,哈马斯必须在协议生效后的42天内交出33名以色列人质,包括所有活着的以色列妇女、儿童、50岁以上的男子,以及50岁以下受伤和生病的男性平民。
然而,如果哈马斯不能提供符合标准的33名活着的人质,拟议的条款允许激进组织通过交出这些类别的人质来填补配额。
在据信仍被关押在加沙的109名人质中,以色列当局公开表示,大约70名人质可能还活着。但是四名美国和以色列官员说,据估计,活着的人质的实际人数大约为50人,其中只有一小部分是女性或者年龄够大,符合提案条款中的老年人资格。
以色列向调停者提供了一份名单,列出了在协议的最初几周内希望哈马斯交出的所有人员,其中包括50岁以下的平民,据信他们还活着,但受伤或生病。然而,两名熟悉谈判情况的美国官员预计,在达成协议的第二阶段之前,无论条件如何,这个激进组织都不会愿意交出任何年轻男子。
官员们说,自建立框架以来,以色列增加了哈马斯拒绝的新条件,包括拒绝从加沙的战略地区撤出以色列国防军,并坚持对返回家园的巴勒斯坦人进行武器检查。
在最初否认对提案进行了任何修改后,总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡现在承认增加了他所说的红线条件,据报道,他对能否达成协议表示怀疑。
几名以色列高级官员表示,内塔尼亚胡是新要求背后的驱动力,并表示,与人质交易和停火的迫切需要相比,额外条件带来的安全利益微不足道。
周三,以色列国防部长Yoav Gallant访问了位于加沙南部和埃及之间的Philadelphi走廊的以色列国防军部队,并表示没有理由继续占领该地区。
“最重要的是记住这场战争的目标是什么,并坚持到底,”他说。“拉法旅被打败了。”
“拉法旅已经被打败了,”格兰特继续说道,他指的是以前在加沙南部城市活动的哈马斯部队。
格兰特还表示,最近几天达成释放人质的协议是“紧迫的、道义上的当务之急”——这一立场引发了内塔尼亚胡的公开反弹。
据一位熟悉相关计划的官员说,美国、以色列和埃及官员周四举行了会晤,讨论保障加沙与埃及边境安全以及重新开放拉法口岸的方案。
国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比(John Kirby)周五表示,这些对话已经是“建设性的”,并否认谈判有破裂的风险。
“有媒体报道说,你知道,他们濒临崩溃。这是不准确的。已经取得了进展。我们现在需要双方走到一起,朝着实施的方向努力。
但本周以色列国防军在加沙地带找回了六名人质的尸体,这表明以色列改变立场的动力正在减弱。其中5名被发现的人已经被认为已经死亡,但其中一名79岁的Avraham Munder在他的遗体被发现前被认为还活着。
官员们表示,在前几轮分分合合的谈判中,以色列一直敦促哈马斯在达成协议之前提供一份人质名单,作为交易的一部分,这些人质将被归还,但这个激进组织拒绝这样做。
2023年11月,以色列和哈马斯达成协议,用至少50名被关押在加沙的妇女和儿童交换150名巴勒斯坦囚犯,休战至少4天。
哈马斯最终释放了100多名以色列人和外国人,延长了战斗的暂停时间,但官员们表示,该组织最终拒绝释放任何额外的妇女,并向以色列开火,导致战争重新爆发。
Initial weeks of a Gaza cease-fire deal may see only a dozen living hostages freed
Under the terms of a proposed Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal,Israelcould see only around a dozen captives taken during Hamas' Oct. 7 attack returned home alive during the initial weeks of the agreement, according to several U.S. officials familiar with the ongoing negotiations.
The unfavorable return for Israel is viewed by the Biden administration as a major impediment to brokering an end to the conflict, and one of the factors fueling the renewed urgency of its campaign to push talks over the finish line.
The White House says negotiations resumed inEgyptthis week, but so far mediators have been unsuccessful in their efforts to encourage Hamas to sign onto a bridging proposal that Israel has agreed to which aims to get talks back on track.
"We'll never give up on it, but the challenge is the longer this goes on, the more hostages will suffer -- possibly perish -- and the more other things happen that could make things impossible," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to Israel on Monday.
Documents reviewed by ABC News detailing the framework for an agreement, which was partially outlined in a late May address by President Joe Biden, stipulate that Hamas must turn over 33 Israeli hostages in the 42 days after the deal is enacted -- including all living Israeli women, children, men over the age of 50, as well as wounded and ill male civilians under the age of 50.
However, in the event Hamas cannot provide 33 living hostages that fit the criteria, the proposed terms allow the militant group to fill the quota by turning over the remains of hostages in these categories.
Out of the 109 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza, Israeli authorities publicly say about 70 captives could still be alive. But four U.S. and Israeli officials say the actual number of living hostages is assessed to be about 50 and that only a fraction of them are either women or old enough to qualify as elderly under the terms of the proposal.
Israel has provided mediators with a list of all the individuals it wants Hamas to turn over in the initial weeks of a deal which includes civilian men under 50 that are believed to be alive but injured or ill. However, two U.S. officials familiar with negotiations anticipate that the militant group will be reluctant to hand over any of the younger men before reaching the second phase of the agreement regardless of their condition.
Since creating the framework, officials say Israel has added new conditions that Hamas rejects, including refusing to withdraw Israel Defense Forces from strategic areas of Gaza and insisting on screening Palestinians returning to their homes in the northern part of the enclave for weapons.
After initially denying that any changes were made to the proposal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now admits to adding conditions he says are red lines and has reportedly expressed skepticism that a deal can be reached.
Several senior Israeli officials say Netanyahu is the driving force behind the new demands and have indicated the security benefits from the additional conditions are negligible when compared to the urgent need for a hostage deal and a cease-fire.
On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF troops at the Philadelphi corridor between southern Gaza and Egypt and suggested there was no reason to continue occupying the area.
"The most important thing is to remember what the goals of the war are and to stick to them," he said. "The Rafah Brigade has been defeated."
"The Rafah Brigade has been defeated,” Gallant continued, referring to Hamas’ battalions that previously operated in the southern Gaza city.
Gallant has also described reaching a deal to release the hostages as "an urgent, moral imperative" in recent days -- a position that sparked public backlash from Netanyahu.
U.S., Israeli and Egyptian officials met on Thursday to discuss options for securing Gaza's border with Egypt and reopening the Rafah crossing, according to an official familiar with the plans.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Friday that those conversations had already been "constructive" and denied that talks were at risk of breaking down.
"There's been press reporting out there that, you know, they're near collapse. That is not accurate. There has been progress made. We need now for both sides to come together and work towards implementation," he said.
But the shrinking incentive for Israel to shift its position was illustrated this week when IDF troops retrieved the bodies of six hostages in the Gaza Strip. Five of those recovered were already thought to be dead, but one -- 79-year-old Avraham Munder -- was presumed to be alive before his remains were found.
In previous rounds of the on-off talks, officials say Israel has pushed for Hamas to provide a list of the hostages that would be returned as part of a deal before striking an agreement, but the militant group has refused to do so.
In November 2023, Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to exchange at least 50 women and children held in Gaza for 150 Palestinian prisoners and truce lasting at least four days.
Hamas ultimately released more than 100 Israelis and foreign nationals, prolonging the pause in fighting, but officials say the group eventually refused to free any additional women and fired on Israel, which lead to the resumption of the war.