大多数美国人表示，他们和卡玛拉·哈里斯一样，准备接受2024年总统选举的结果是合法的。唐纳德·特朗普，没有那么多。
在美国广播公司新闻和益普索民意调查中，81%的美国人表示，无论他们支持哪位候选人，他们都准备接受选举结果。更少，但仍有68%的人认为哈里斯准备好接受结果。只有29%的人对特朗普持相同看法。
几乎所有哈里斯的支持者(92%)都表示，他们个人准备接受这一结果。这一比例下降至76%的特朗普支持者。相反，21%的他的支持者——相当于所有成年人的8%——不准备这样做。
其他更尖锐的政治分歧也影响了这项由ABC新闻制作的民意调查兰格研究协会现场工作由益普索。只有6%的哈里斯支持者认为特朗普准备接受选举结果，在他自己的支持者中，这一比例上升到了仍然温和的58%。百分之九十七的哈里斯支持者认为她准备接受这个结果;在特朗普的支持者中，只有44%的人这么认为。
选举诚信
特朗普否认选举的说法引起了一些美国人的共鸣。
三分之一(34%)的人对选举中的选票将被准确计数缺乏信心，这与2022年的比例相似。65%的人对准确计数非常有信心或有一定信心;刚好一半，32%，非常自信。
此外，同样有34%的人认为乔·拜登没有合法地赢得2020年的选举，自他就职以来变化不大。
这些观点密切相关:近十分之九认为拜登合法当选的美国人相信今年的选票会被准确统计，认为选举不合法的人的比例下降到26%。
对选举诚信的看法也与接受选举结果的意愿有关。在相信选票会被准确统计的人中，92%的人说他们准备接受这个结果，而对统计缺乏信心的人只有61%。91%认为拜登合法当选的人准备接受今年的结果，而64%的人不这么认为。
组
党派之间对计票的信心差距很大，一半的共和党人(51%)对计票的准确性缺乏信心。90%的民主党人表示对计票有信心，这一比例在无党派人士中降至64%，在共和党中仅为48%。
同样，96%的民主党人认为拜登是合法当选的;66%的无党派人士和30%的共和党人同意这一观点。
也就是说，个人准备接受今年结果的党派分歧要温和得多。大约80%的共和党人(78%)和无党派人士(81%)都表示他们会接受，89%的民主党人也是如此。
意识形态是另一个因素:至少80%的自由派、温和派或有点保守的人准备接受这一结果，在那些认为自己非常保守的人中，这一比例降至64%。
只有38%非常保守的人相信今年的投票会被准确统计，这一数字上升到50%稍微保守的人，68%的温和派和89%的自由派。只有21%的非常保守的人认为拜登在2020年合法获胜;这一比例翻了一番，达到42%的保守主义者，然后上升到70%的温和派和92%的自由派。
方法——这项ABC News/益普索民意调查于2024年8月23日至27日通过基于概率的益普索知识小组以英语和西班牙语在全国随机抽样的2，496名成年人中进行。党派分歧是29-29-30%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的误差为抽样误差2个百分点，包括整个样本的设计效果。抽样误差并不是民意测验中差异的唯一来源。
该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由益普索进行采样和数据收集。查看ABC新闻调查方法的详细信息这里.
Two-thirds of Americans say Trump unprepared to accept the election outcome: POLL
Most Americans say they and Kamala Harris alike are prepared to accept the outcome of the 2024 presidential election as legitimate.Donald Trump, not so much.
Eighty-one percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll say that regardless of which candidate they support, they are prepared to accept the outcome of the election. Fewer, but still 68%, see Harris as prepared to accept the outcome. Just 29% say the same about Trump.
Nearly all of Harris' supporters, 92%, say they personally are prepared to accept the outcome. That declines to 76% of Trump's supporters. Instead, 21% of his supporters -- which translates to 8% of all adults -- are not prepared to do so.
Other, sharper political divisions inform views in this poll, produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associateswith fieldwork byIpsos. Just 6% of Harris' supporters think Trump is prepared to accept the election outcome, rising to a still-mild 58% among his own supporters. Ninety-seven percent of Harris' supporters think she is prepared to accept the outcome; among Trump's supporters, only 44% think the same.
Election integrity
Trump's election denial claims resonate with some Americans.
One in three (34%) lacks confidence that votes in the election will be counted accurately, similar to the share who said so in 2022. Sixty-five percent are very or somewhat confident in an accurate count; just half of them, 32%, are very confident.
Moreover, an identical 34% thinkJoe Bidendid not legitimately win the 2020 election, little changed since his inauguration.
These views are strongly related: Nearly nine in 10 Americans who think Biden legitimately was elected are confident that votes will be counted accurately this year, dropping to 26% of those who think it wasn't legitimate.
Views on election integrity also are associated with preparedness to accept the outcome. Among people who are confident that votes will be counted accurately, 92% say they are prepared to accept the outcome, versus 61% of those who lack confidence in the count. And 91% of those who think Biden was legitimately elected are prepared to accept this year's outcome, versus 64% of those who think not.
Groups
There are wide gaps by partisanship in confidence in the vote count, with half of Republicans (51%) lacking confidence it will be accurate. Ninety percent of Democrats express confidence in the count, dropping to 64% of independents and just 48% of Republicans.
In a similar pattern, 96% of Democrats think Biden was legitimately elected; 66% of independents and just 30% of Republicans agree.
That said, partisan divisions in personal preparedness to accept the outcome this year are much milder. About eight in 10 Republicans (78%) and independents (81%) alike say they'll accept it, as do 89% of Democrats.
Ideology is another factor: At least eight in 10 people who are liberal, moderate or somewhat conservative are prepared to accept the outcome, dropping to 64% among those who identify themselves as very conservative.
Just 38% of very conservatives are confident that votes will be counted accurately this year, rising to 50% of somewhat conservatives, 68% of moderates and 89% of liberals. And only 21% of very conservatives think Biden legitimately won in 2020; this doubles to 42% of somewhat conservatives, then jumps to 70% of moderates and 92% of liberals.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Aug. 23-27, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,496 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodologyhere.
