6月27日，美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)和前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)之间的总统辩论可以说是现代历史上最重要的辩论之一，它催化了拜登在不到一个月后的7月21日退出竞选。比赛已经从那以后完全变了副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在民调中上升到首位并超过川普，这表明她可能正在克服选民在拜登竞选中看到的一些赤字。
现在是时候了另一场辩论.
哈里斯参加这场辩论时，支持率相对较高，在全国民意调查中也有小幅领先热情的浪潮在八月下旬民主党全国代表大会后，她的支持者中。她周二晚上在费城的表现可能会继续上升，也可能会停止，特别是因为更多犹豫不决的选民可能会收看比平时多。
考虑到这一点，我们深入研究了这些数字，以了解在哈里斯-特朗普首次总统辩论之前，选民们在想什么。最近的民意调查显示，到目前为止，选民对哈里斯的竞选相当看好，认为她有望赢得这场辩论。与此同时，特朗普在选民心目中的一些最重要的问题上仍然具有优势，但他可能容易受到他的团队曾经向拜登发起的基于年龄的攻击。
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从她成为假定的民主党候选人开始，哈里斯的支持率直线上升。在…里538的最新平均值大约是46 %,离她的不支持率还差一点。这比她在拜登退出之前的情况好得多，当时她领先大约15个百分点:
哈里斯的支持率飙升代表着拜登的显著改善，拜登今年大部分时间的净支持率都在-15左右，也明显好于特朗普。其支持率基本保持不变从2024年初开始。在我们最近的平均值中，他仍然落后将近10个百分点(53%的人不喜欢他，43%的人喜欢他)。
在…里美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查8月23日至27日,56%的成年人表示，哈里斯在她的竞选活动中做得很好或很好，相比之下，41%的人对特朗普持相同看法，53%的人表示她非常或有点资格担任总统，相比之下，47%的人对特朗普持相同看法。在至关重要的赛马比赛中，她目前在538场全国赛中领先于特朗普投票平均数大约3个百分点在正面交锋中——尽管她的势头在过去几周似乎停滞不前或略有下滑:
我们似乎正处于哈里斯竞选的蜜月期的末尾，民意调查表明，这是因为她的候选资格激发了许多选民中的一些人，他们对哈里斯的竞选感到失望和兴奋特朗普和拜登之间的复赛。的确，在同一个ABC新闻/益普索民意调查她的支持者中有64%表示强烈支持她，相比之下，7月初只有34%的人表示支持拜登。在8月份的民意调查中，45%的人还表示，他们对哈里斯和特朗普之间的总统选择非常或有点满意，相比之下，7月份只有28%的人对拜登和特朗普持相同看法。
选民们似乎也将他们对哈里斯的一些好感带入了他们的辩论预期中。在美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查中，许多受访者(43%)表示，他们预计哈里斯将赢得周二的辩论，相比之下，37%的人表示，他们预计特朗普将赢得辩论。这与上一场辩论正好相反选民预计拜登表现不佳(而且做的比特朗普差)甚至在辩论之前。虽然更高的期望是哈里斯竞选活动表现的一个好迹象，但这也可能意味着，在打动选民和满足预期方面，她比特朗普有更高的障碍。这是本周的辩论对哈里斯的蜜月期是转化为持续的收益还是失败至关重要的一个原因。
那么，选民可能希望在辩论中从哈里斯和特朗普那里听到什么?当谈到问题时，两位候选人都希望在他们有优势的问题上坚持自己的立场，同时在弱势领域削弱对手的领先优势。从某些方面来说，特朗普在关键问题上一开始就占据优势。美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查显示，在美国人更信任谁来处理通货膨胀和经济问题上，特朗普比哈里斯领先8个百分点。特朗普在美墨边境移民问题上也有9个百分点的优势，在处理以色列和哈马斯之间的战争上有7个百分点的优势。
在这次民意调查中，哈里斯在她最强的问题上比特朗普有更大的优势:在堕胎和种族关系上有16个点，在医疗保健上有10个点。但其他最近的民意调查显示，选民对这些问题进行了排序在决定他们的投票时不那么重要而不是经济和移民。(在类似的列表中，医疗保健和堕胎排在这两个问题之后，而种族关系是选民最不重视的问题之一。)我们预计两位候选人都会谈论签名问题，比如堕胎(为哈里斯)和移民(为特朗普)，但我们也将关注哈里斯如何试图改变对经济和移民的叙述，以及特朗普有多好抓住主题来巩固他的优势在这些问题上。
当然，辩论的形式和实质一样重要:选民将密切关注两位候选人在舞台上的表现，或者谁看起来更像“总统”。而且说到个人属性，哈里斯普遍胜过川普。在美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查中，受访者尤其可能认为她比特朗普更诚实和值得信赖，43%对25%，当受访者被问及哪位候选人代表他们的个人价值观并理解像他们这样的人的问题时，她领先。
值得注意的是，在美国人认为谁具有更好的“身体健康”和“精神敏锐”来有效地担任总统时，哈里斯也以较大优势击败了特朗普，超过两倍的人认为哈里斯的身体健康状况更好(57%对25%)。这种差异凸显了哈里斯的候选人资格改变这场竞选动态的最明显的方式之一——她比拜登和特朗普都年轻20岁左右——并提出了一个问题，即特朗普是否会面临一些导致拜登退出竞选的基于年龄的担忧。
这场总统竞选很少是传统的，在6月的第一场总统辩论拉开了总统竞选的序幕后，这场辩论预计将吸引比往常更多的目光。在哈里斯和特朗普之间一场异常简短的比赛中，两位候选人只有很短的时间向选民阐述自己的观点，本周的辩论将是最引人注目和高风险的机会之一。这个国家将关注哈里斯是否达到了很高的期望，以及特朗普在他们的第一场对决中如何回应。
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
The June 27 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was arguably one of the most consequential in modern history, catalyzing Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, less than a month later. The contest hascompletely changed since then, with Vice President Kamala Harris ascending to the top of the ticket and surpassing Trump in the polls, signaling that she may be overcoming some of the deficits that voters saw in Biden's campaign.
Now it's time foranother debate.
Harris comes into this debate riding relatively high on climbing approval ratings and a small lead in national polling, as well as awave of enthusiasmamong her base following the Democratic National Convention in late August. Her performance Tuesday night in Philadelphia could either continue the upward trajectory or bring it to a halt, particularly asmore undecided voters are likely to tune inthan usual.
With that in mind, we dug into the numbers to see what's on voters' minds heading into the first Harris-Trump presidential debate. Recent polling suggests that voters view Harris's campaign fairly favorably so far and think she's favored to win the debate. Meanwhile, Trump still has an edge on some of the most important issues on voters' minds, but he may be vulnerable to the same age-based attacks that his side once lobbed at Biden.
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From the time she became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris's favorability has shot up. In538's latest average, it's about 46 percent, just short of her disapproval rating. That's much better than where she was right before Biden dropped out, when she was underwater by around 15 points:
Harris's favorability surge represents a notable improvement over Biden, who's been mired at around a -15 net favorability rating for most of this year, and it's also notably better than Trump,whose rating has remained mostly flatsince the start of 2024. In our most recent average, he remains almost 10 points underwater (53 percent view him unfavorably and 43 percent favorably).
Inan ABC News/Ipsos poll takenAug. 23-27,56 percent of adults said Harris is doing an excellent or good job on her campaign, compared to 41 percent who said the same of Trump, and 53 percent said she is very or somewhat qualified to serve as president, compared to 47 percent who said so of Trump. And in the all-important horse race, she's currently ahead of Trump in 538's nationalpolling averageby about 3 pointsin head-to-head matchups — though her momentum looks to have stalled or slipped slightly in the last couple of weeks:
We appear to be at the tail end of a honeymoon period for the Harris campaign, and polls suggest that’s because her candidacy energized some of the many voters who were disillusioned and unexcited about therematch between Trump and Biden. Indeed, inthat same ABC News/Ipsos poll, 64 percent of her supporters said they strongly supported her, compared with only 34 percent who said the same of Biden in early July. Forty-five percent in the August poll also said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the choice between Harris and Trump for president, compared to only 28 percent who said the same about Biden and Trump in July.
Voters seem to be bringing some of their good vibes about Harris into their debate expectations too. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, a plurality of respondents (43 percent) said they expect Harris to win Tuesday's debate, compared to 37 percent who said they expect Trump to win. That's reversed from the last debate, wherevoters expected Biden to perform poorly(and do worse than Trump) even before the debate. While higher expectations are a good sign for how Harris's campaign has been doing, they likely also mean that she has a higher bar to clear than Trump when it comes to impressing voters and meeting expectations. That’s one reason this week’s debate could be critical in whether Harris’s honeymoon period translates into sustained gains, or fizzles out.
So, what might voters be looking to hear from Harris and Trump in the debate? When it comes to the issues, both candidates will be looking to hold their ground on issues that they have an advantage on, while cutting into their opponents' lead on areas of weakness. Trump in some ways starts off with the high ground on key issues. The ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Trump with an advantage of 8 points over Harris when it comes to whom Americans trust more to handle inflation and the economy. Trump also had a 9-point advantage on the issue of immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, and a 7-point advantage on handling the war between Israel and Hamas.
Harris has an even larger advantage over Trump on her strongest issues in this poll: 16 points on abortion and race relations, and 10 points on health care. But other recent polling has shown that voters rank those issuesas less important in determining their votethan the economy and immigration. (Health care and abortion ranked just after those two issues on a similar list, while race relations was among the least important to voters.) We'll expect both candidates to talk up signature issues likeabortion (for Harris)andimmigration (for Trump), but we'll also be looking out for how Harris tries to shift the narrative on the economy and immigration — and how well Trumpstays on topic to bolster his advantageon those issues.
Of course, debates are often as much about style as substance: Voters will be keeping a close eye on how the two candidates act on stage, or who seems more "presidential." And when it comes to personal attributes, Harris generally outperformed Trump. Respondents in the ABC News/Ipsos poll were particularly likely to view her as more honest and trustworthy than Trump, 43 percent to 25 percent, and she came out ahead when respondents were asked which candidate represents their personal values and understands the problems of people like them.
Notably, Harris also beat out Trump by a large margin when it came to who Americans think has the better "physical health" and "mental sharpness" to serve effectively as president, with more than twice as many saying Harris was in better physical health (57 percent to 25 percent). That difference underscores one of the most obvious ways Harris's candidacy changed the dynamic of this race — she's around 20 years younger than both Biden and Trump — and raises the question of whether Trump will face some of the same age-based concerns that drove Biden out of the race.
Little about this presidential contest has been traditional, and after a first presidential debate blew open the presidential race in June, this debate is expected to attract more eyes than usual. In an unusually abbreviated race between Harris and Trump, the candidates have had a short amount of time to make their cases to voters, and this week's debate will be one of the most high-profile, and-high stakes, opportunities to do so. The country will be watching to see if Harris meets high expectations, and how Trump responds in their first head-to-head matchup.
