前总统唐纳德·特朗普和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯将把...做成方形在高风险中辩论在离选举日不到两个月的星期二。
这场唇枪舌剑将触及一系列问题，但没有一个问题比经济更重要，经济在选民中通常被列为重中之重。
美国广播公司新闻采访了专家，当辩论转向经济时，他们将关注什么。他们说，他们将寻找一切，从实质性讨论的数量到拜登遗产的相关性，再到以下主题的流行程度通货膨胀和赋税.
根据专家的说法，特朗普和哈里斯之间的辩论在经济方面值得关注。
咝咝声对物质
除了一些例外，民意测验通常显示在经济问题上，选民更喜欢特朗普而不是哈里斯，尽管她在竞选早期缩小了特朗普与总统乔·拜登的差距。
在保持国家繁荣的问题上，共和党比民主党领先14个百分点姓氏去年的一项调查发现，这是自1991年开始就该问题进行民意调查以来，共和党人在该问题上的最大优势。
一些专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，从理论上讲，特朗普在经济上的优势可能有助于他在辩论中取得丰硕成果。然而，他们补充说，特朗普偏离信息、进行人身攻击和做出虚假声明的倾向可能会最小化或抵消潜在的收益。
马里兰大学商学院名誉教授彼得·莫里西告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“他必须坚持自己的观点。”。“如果他准备好了，那么他应该能够把(哈里斯)放在一个很难反驳的位置上。”
总部位于华盛顿的咨询公司Allon advocation的创始人兼总裁史蒂夫·博姆斯(Steve Boms)表示，这场辩论不太可能探究政策的细微差别。哈里斯不是试图避免选民支持特朗普的问题的细节，而是寻求实质性的对话，试图展示对该话题的卓越控制。
“与前总统特朗普辩论的历史是，他们不经常参与真正实质性的政策辩论，”博姆斯说。“对副总统哈里斯来说，利用政策讨论作为将她的政策与他的政策并列的手段将是一个挑战。”
拜登的遗产
一些专家说，与其他问题一样，经济给哈里斯带来了一个关键的选择，即在多大程度上接受拜登的记录，在多大程度上与自己保持距离。
专家补充说，由于许多美国人不赞成拜登处理经济的方式，哈里斯可能会通过承认美国人的金融痛苦并提出解决这一问题的政策建议来寻求使自己脱离现状。
特朗普在这个问题上的相对优势部分归因于自他离任以来消费者对经济的态度恶化。
根据英国国家统计局进行的一项调查，上个月消费者信心指数为68左右密歇根大学。这一数字表明，与2022年达到的低点相比，这一数字有所改善，但远低于特朗普上任最后一个月的80分，以及疫情之前的101分。
密歇根州立大学(Michigan State University)研究经济表现在选举政治中的作用的政治学教授马特·格罗斯曼(Matt Grossman)说，“主要的动态是，哈里斯试图挑选拜登记录中她希望竞选的方面，并避免人们希望归咎于拜登的责任。”。
"哈里斯能在多大程度上把自己呈现为一个新议程，而不是一个延续?"格罗斯曼补充道。
通货膨胀
一些专家表示，辩论经济部分最突出的话题可能是通胀，他们注意到候选人在竞选活动中经常提到价格问题。
尽管价格涨幅已从2022年6月的峰值大幅放缓，但通胀仍比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点。更有甚者，自拜登上任以来，消费价格上涨了20%以上，美国劳工统计局数据显示。
“在所有经济问题中，通货膨胀是特朗普面临的最大问题，”耶鲁大学法学院保罗·蔡中国中心高级研究员斯蒂芬·罗奇告诉美国广播公司新闻。
“通货膨胀率下降的速度比大多数人预期的要快得多，”罗奇补充道。"问题是价格水平仍然高得令人无法接受。"
上个月，哈里斯揭开旨在通过调整食品、住房和药品价格来缓解通货膨胀的提议。这些计划包括引人注目的提议，比如禁止哄抬食品价格，以及为首次购房者提供2.5万美元的补贴。
密歇根州立大学的格罗斯曼说:“她提出了一些建议，试图针对一些部门的通货膨胀。”。“那...到目前为止，她没有像拜登退出竞选前那样受到太多对通胀的指责。
税收提案
尽管某些领域的政策细节仍然缺乏，但两位候选人都提出了几项关于税收政策的建议。
特朗普表示，他将更新他的签名减税措施，同时发誓要取消小费和社会保障福利税。
哈里斯表示，她还将取消小费税，同时承诺拒绝更新特朗普的税法，并提高企业税。她也有被提议的对长期资本收益征收28%的税，远低于拜登提出的对此类收入征收39.6%的税率。
Allon advocation的博姆斯说，在辩论中，两位候选人都将把他们的税收计划描述为努力改善工人阶级和中等收入人群的前景。他说，特朗普可能会声称，他的税收措施在他担任总统期间帮助推动了工人的工资增长，而哈里斯可能会指出企业支付更高份额税收的潜力。
莫里西说，两位候选人都将宣扬为普通人节省税收。
“说‘我会从山姆大叔那里给你更多的钱’会产生共鸣，”他说。
Harris-Trump debate: What to watch for on the economy
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are set tosquare offin a high-stakesdebateon Tuesday less than two months before Election Day.
The verbal joust will touch on a range of issues but none may be more important than the economy, which often ranks as the top priority among voters.
ABC News spoke to experts about what they will be watching for when the debate turns to the economy. They said they'll be looking for everything from the amount of substantive discussion to the relevance of Biden’s legacy to the prevalence of topics likeinflationandtaxes.
Here’s what to watch for on the economy in the debate between Trump and Harris, according to experts.
Sizzle versus substance
With some exceptions, polls typicallyshowthat voters prefer Trump over Harris on the issue of the economy, though she has narrowed the gap held by Trump over President Joe Biden earlier in the campaign.
The preference aligns with a 14 percentage-point advantage for Republicans over Democrats on the matter of keeping the country prosperous, aGallupsurvey last year found, granting Republicans their largest margin on the issue since polling on the question began in 1991.
In theory, the advantage for Trump on the economy could lend itself to a fruitful portion of the debate for him, some experts told ABC News. However, they added, Trump’s propensity to stray off message, level personal attacks and make false claims could minimize or negate the potential gain.
“He has to stay on message,” Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland's School of Business, told ABC News. “If he’s prepared, then he should be able to put [Harris] in a position where it’s tough to rebut.”
Steve Boms, founder and president of D.C.-based consulting firm Allon Advocacy, said the debate is unlikely to explore nitty-gritty policy nuances. Instead of seeking to avoid details on an issue over which voters favor Trump, Harris may pursue a substantive conversation in an attempt to demonstrate superior command of the topic.
“The history of debates with former President Trump is that they don’t often lend themselves to really substantive policy debates,” Boms said. “It will be a challenge for Vice President Harris to use a policy discussion as a means of juxtaposing her policies against his.”
Biden’s legacy
As with other issues, the economy presents Harris with a key choice about how much to embrace Biden’s record and how much to distance herself, some experts said.
Since many Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, Harris may seek to set herself apart from the status quo by acknowledging Americans’ financial pain and presenting policy proposals to address it, experts added.
The relative strength of Trump on the issue owes in part to a souring of consumer attitudes about the economy since he left office.
Consumer sentiment clocked in at a score of about 68 last month, according to a survey conducted by theUniversity of Michigan. That figure indicates improvement from a low reached in 2022, but the mark stands well below a level of 80 recorded in Trump’s last full month in office and 101 achieved pre-pandemic.
“The main dynamic is that Harris is trying to pick and choose the aspects of the Biden record that she wants to run on and avoid responsibility for the things people want to blame on Biden,” said Matt Grossman, a professor of political science at Michigan State University who studies the role of economic performance in electoral politics.
“How much will Harris be able to present herself as a new agenda rather than a continuation?” Grossman added.
Inflation
The most prominent topic to be covered during the economy section of the debate could be inflation, some experts said, noting frequent mentions of price concerns by candidates on the campaign trail.
While price increases have slowed dramatically from a peak reached in June 2022, inflation remains nearly a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Even more, since Biden took office consumer prices have increased more than 20%,U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsdata shows.
“Of all the economic issues, inflation is the strongest one that Trump has,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School, told ABC News.
“The inflation rate has come down much faster than most people expected,” Roach added. “The problem is the price level remains unacceptably high.”
Last month, Harrisunveiledproposals that aim to ease inflation by targeting prices for groceries, housing and medication. The plans include eye-catching proposals such as a ban on grocery price gouging and a $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
“She has put forward some proposals to try to target some sectors with inflation,” said Grossman of Michigan State University. “That ... so far has allowed her to not have as much blame for inflation as Biden was getting before he dropped out.”
Tax proposals
While policy details remain scarce in some areas, both candidates have put forward several proposals on their approach to taxes.
Trump has said he would renew his signature tax cut measure, while vowing to do away with taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.
For her part, Harris has said she would also eliminate taxes on tips, while promising to reject renewal of Trump’s tax law and raise taxes on corporations. She has alsoproposeda 28% tax on long-term capital gains, which clocks in well below the 39.6% tax rate for such income put forward by Biden.
At the debate, both candidates will frame their tax plans as efforts to boost the prospects of working-class and middle-income people, said Boms of Allon Advocacy. Trump may claim that his tax measure helped drive wage gains for workers during his presidency, while Harris could point to the potential for corporations to pay a higher share in taxes, he said.
Morici said both candidates will tout tax savings for everyday people.
“It resonates to say, ‘I’ll give you more money back from Uncle Sam,’” he said.
