沉闷的经济态度和对社会政策的截然不同的观点标志着2024年的总统大选，导致副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的竞争更加激烈:在美国广播公司新闻/益普索的一项新民意调查中，他们现在只相差2个百分点。
在全国调查中，哈里斯在可能的选民中获得了50%的支持，特朗普获得了48%的支持，在所有登记的选民中，这一结果类似，为49%至47%。(在所有成年人中，不管注册状态如何，这是一场单点竞赛，49%至48%，不包括那些不会投票的人。)
这一结果比9月中旬美国广播公司/益普索民意调查中哈里斯在潜在选民和普通公众中的+5个百分点和在注册选民中的+4个百分点略接近。特朗普在男性选民中的支持率上升是一个因素，他现在在登记投票的选民中的支持率上升了8个百分点，哈里斯在无党派人士(通常是摇摆不定的选民)中的支持率下降也是一个因素。
在赛马之下，问题被拉向相反的方向。这项民意调查由美国广播公司新闻频道制作兰格研究协会益普索的实地调查发现，56%的美国人现在支持驱逐所有非法移民，比八年前上升了20个百分点。这强化了特朗普最大的问题之一，特朗普在处理南部边境移民问题上领先10个百分点。
然而，同样有56%的人在堕胎问题上支持哈里斯，认为联邦政府应该恢复最高法院在2022年取消堕胎宪法权利之前的状况。41%的人支持特朗普的观点，即每个州都应该做出决定。由此可见，堕胎是哈里斯在这次民意调查中最好的问题，在信任度上领先特朗普15个百分点。
经济/未来
然后是经济，与之相关的是对国家未来的尖锐分歧。据报道星期五44%的美国人表示，他们现在没有拜登就职时富裕，这是自1986年以来在这个问题上的最大负数。
此外，尽管通胀有所缓解，就业也很强劲，但大多数人并没有意识到这些好处:59%的人说经济正在恶化，是说经济正在好转的人(23%)的两倍多。在认为经济正在恶化的注册选民中，特朗普以74%比21%的支持率大幅领先哈里斯53个百分点。
在很大程度上受到经济态度的影响，注册选民在美国的好日子是还在前面还是已经过去的问题上意见不一，比例为51-47%。这反过来又与候选人的选择有关:特朗普以其国家衰落的信息，在那些认为美国最美好的日子已经过去的人中，以61%比34%领先哈里斯27个百分点。哈里斯以其更乐观的信息，在认为美国最美好的日子即将到来的人中，以63%比35%领先特朗普28个百分点。
换句话说，59%的特朗普支持者说这个国家最美好的日子已经过去了。在哈里斯的支持者中，67%的人认为这个国家的好日子还在后头。
经济/问题
特朗普在处理经济的信任度方面领先哈里斯8个百分点，在通货膨胀方面领先7个百分点，这是自8月份以来的一贯结果，对他的竞争力至关重要，反映了哈里斯摆脱对拜登经济管理不满的挑战。(有关这方面的更多信息，请参见周五的报告哈里斯作为变革推动者的逆风。)
也就是说，哈里斯力推另一个经济基准，“关注中产阶级。”这是民调中的一个新项目，她以42%比37%领先特朗普5个百分点。(剩下的不放心他们两个任何一个处理。)
对每位候选人的三项经济提案的测试充实了这个故事:特朗普既有最受欢迎的提案，也有最不受欢迎的提案，哈里斯在六项提案中分别获得第二、第三和第四名。
具体而言，特朗普结束社会保障福利所得税的建议受到欢迎，其次是哈里斯的三项建议----对有新生儿的中低收入家庭的税收抵免，对食品公司在食品杂货上的利润的限制以及对首次购房者的补助。特朗普接下来还有两项提议——提高外国进口商品的关税，以及大多数人不欢迎的削减企业所得税。
其中之一是结束社会保障福利税的想法，这一想法得到了55%的大多数人的“强烈”支持。哈里斯的三项提议也获得了比强烈反对更多的强烈支持，比强烈反对多10到23个百分点。相比之下，特朗普的其余项目获得的支持要少得多——削减公司所得税更容易遭到强烈反对。
在其他问题上，特朗普在处理犯罪和安全、国家安全和中东冲突方面领先一位数;哈里斯在“保护美国民主”上领先一位数。过去投票中重复项目的结果实际上没有变化。
热情和属性
虽然潜在选民在许多问题上分歧很大，但在热情和个人支持度这两个方面，哈里斯有明显的优势。在支持她的注册选民中，84%的人说他们对此充满热情;在特朗普的支持者中，热情下降了6个百分点，至78%。这明显低于2020年此时对特朗普的热情(93%)。
热情与个人好感度有关，44%的美国人对哈里斯有好感，而对特朗普有好感的只有35%。哈里斯的支持率在这次民意调查中下降了3个百分点，现在有47%的人不喜欢她。也就是说，更多的人(58%)对特朗普没有好感。
受欢迎程度不是决定性的。自2015年以来，特朗普的支持率一直处于水下，但尽管如此，他还是在八年前赢得了选举人团。
对特朗普的一个重要提振是，在对两位候选人都不看好的15%注册选民中，他以62%对24%的比例大幅领先。从另一个角度来看，21%的特朗普支持者不喜欢他，但无论如何都支持他。哈里斯的相应数字仅为7%。
特朗普还通过将哈里斯描述为过于自由主义而继续得分。48%的美国人这样看她，而43%的人认为特朗普太保守。也就是说，7%的人认为哈里斯太保守，9%的人认为特朗普太自由;最终，非常相似的数字称他们在意识形态上“大约正确”，43%的人支持特朗普，41%的人支持哈里斯。
辩论?
不管他们有多受欢迎或不受欢迎，另一项结果显示，大多数人愿意听到更多来自候选人的消息:57%的人说哈里斯和特朗普应该同意额外的电视辩论，而41%的人说不。
特朗普上周重申，另一场辩论不太可能发生。他们的支持者在这个问题上有分歧。在倾向于哈里斯的注册选民中，71%的人希望再进行一场辩论，而在倾向于特朗普的人中，这一比例急剧下降，降至45%。(在上个月的唯一一次辩论后，58%的人认为哈里斯已经赢了。)
游击队员
离大选还有三周，党派偏见影响了调查结果。例如，85%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立人士认为经济正在恶化，而只有32%的民主党人和倾向于民主党的人同意这一观点。在另一个例子中，共和党人和共和党人比他们的民主党对手更倾向于说国家的最好的日子已经过去，60%对36%。
政策偏好显示出类似的模式。88%的共和党人支持大规模驱逐出境，58%的无党派人士支持，相比之下，民主党人的比例为26%。(尽管如此，与2016年的调查相比，支持驱逐出境的人数大幅增加，但民主党人和自由派人士的观点除外。)
在堕胎问题上，党派分歧的结果发生了逆转:87%的民主党人认为联邦政府应该恢复堕胎权，57%的无党派人士持同样观点，而共和党人的这一比例降至27%。
投票偏好
民意测验最好不要用来描述谁领先，而是用来评估这个国家是如何以及为什么做出这个决定的。同样重要的是要记住，普选的最终获胜者可能不同于总统的获胜者，正如2016年和2000年所证明的那样(同样，对于历史爱好者来说，也是在1888年、1876年和1824年)。
随着选举日的临近和提前投票的进行，本次民意调查在衡量投票偏好方面与之前的ABC/益普索民意调查略有不同。根据受访者所在州的选票情况，调查受访者最多可以选择五名候选人——哈里斯、特朗普、吉尔·斯坦、蔡斯·奥利弗和康奈尔·韦斯特，以及他们的竞选伙伴。(小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪虽然在30个州和哥伦比亚特区参加投票，但没有被列出，因为他没有积极参加竞选。受访者可以自愿支持肯尼迪或其他任何人。)
除了被问及他们会支持谁，受访者还可以选择说他们已经投了票。在这次调查中，1%的人这样做了，这个数字可能会迅速上升。
如前所述，这项民意调查的一个转变是登记投票的男性中的结果——52%至44%的人支持特朗普，而9月中旬的支持率为48%至48%。这包括特朗普在白人男性中领先19个百分点，以及西班牙裔男性和年轻男性(18-39岁)之间的激烈竞争。
无党派人士略有变化，根据出口民调，他们在过去12次总统选举中有9次投票给了获胜者。9月中旬，哈里斯在独立选民中以51%对41%领先10个百分点，相比之下，现在是49%对44%，领先5个百分点。
哈里斯继续在女性中领先9个百分点，53%对44%，这得益于她在40岁以下、黑人和西班牙裔女性中的表现。在投票率更可靠的群体中，她在大学毕业生中领先14个百分点，比例为56-42%。
候选人之间17点的性别差距(特朗普在男性中+8，哈里斯在女性中+9)回到了典型水平;自1996年以来，它在出口民调中平均领先19个百分点。这反映了一个事实，即女性比男性更倾向于认为自己是民主党人。
哈里斯-特朗普在登记投票的黑人中的支持率为82-13%;相比之下，2020年出口民调中的支持率为87-12%(哈里斯略低5个百分点;对特朗普没有更好的)。黑人女性现在是87-10%(2020年是90-9%);黑人男性为76-18%(四年前为79-19%)。这些与2020年的差异在统计上并不显著。
然后是各州的选票分配。在被认为是安全和可能的红色州，特朗普以55%比42%轻松领先。在预期的蓝州，哈里斯遥遥领先，56-39%。在七个竞争激烈的州——亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州——竞争非常激烈:哈里斯的支持率为49%，特朗普为49%。
方法——这项ABC News/益普索民意调查于2024年10月4日至8日通过基于概率的益普索知识小组以英语和西班牙语在全国随机抽样的2631名成年人中进行。党派分歧是29-29-30%，民主党-共和党-无党派。结果的误差为抽样误差正负2个百分点，包括设计效果。子组的误差幅度更大。对于注册选民，样本量为2226，误差幅度为2个点。对于可能的选民，样本量为1，714，误差幅度为2.5点。抽样误差并不是造成民意测验差异的唯一原因。
该调查由ABC新闻制作兰格研究协会，由益普索进行采样和数据收集。查看ABC新闻调查方法的详细信息这里.
Economic discontent, issue divisions add up to tight presidential contest: POLL
Dreary economic attitudes and sharply divergent views on social policies mark the 2024 presidential election, contributing to a tighter contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump: Just 2 percentage points now divide them in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Harris has 50% support to Trump's 48% among likely voters in the national survey, with a similar 49-47% result among all registered voters. (Among all adults, regardless of registration status, it's a single-point race, 49-48%, excluding those who wouldn't vote.)
The results are slightly closer than Harris' +5 points among likely voters and the general public, and +4 among registered voters, in the last ABC/Ipsos poll in mid-September. A gain for Trump among men -- he's now +8 points among those registered to vote -- is a factor, as is a slip for Harris among independents, often swing voters.
Beneath the horse race, issues pull in opposite directions. The poll, produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that 56% of Americans now favor deporting all undocumented immigrants, up 20 points from eight years ago. That reinforces one of Trump's strongest issues, with a 10-point Trump lead in trust to handle immigration at the southern border.
Yet the same share, 56%, side with Harris on abortion, saying the federal government should restore access to what it was before the Supreme Court eliminated the constitutional right to abortion in 2022. Many fewer, 41%, favor Trump's view that each state should decide. It follows that abortion is Harris' best issue in this poll, with a 15-point lead over Trump in trust on it.
Then there's the economy, and related to it, a sharp division on the nation's future. As reportedFriday, 44% of Americans say they're not as well off now as they were when Biden took office, tying the most negative number on this question in data since 1986.
Further, while inflation has eased and employment is strong, those gains haven't hit home for most people: 59% say the economy is getting worse, more than twice as many as say it's getting better, 23%. And among registered voters who say the economy's worsening, Trump leads Harris by a sweeping 53 points, 74-21%.
Largely informed by economic attitudes, registered voters divide, 51-47%, on whether America's best days are still ahead, or behind it. This in turn relates to candidate choice: Trump, with his message of national decay, leads Harris by 27 points, 61-34%, among those who say the country's best days are behind it. Harris, with her more optimistic messaging, leads Trump by 28 points, 63-35%, among those who think America's best days are ahead.
Taken another way, 59% of Trump's supporters say the country's best days are behind it. Among Harris supporters, 67% say the country's best days are still to come.
Trump leads Harris by 8 points overall in trust to handle the economy and 7 points on inflation, consistent results since August that are central to his competitiveness and reflect Harris' challenges breaking free from dissatisfaction with Biden's economic stewardship. (See more on this inFriday's reporton Harris' headwinds as an agent of change.)
That said, Harris pushes back on another economic benchmark, "looking out for the middle class." A new item in this poll, she leads Trump on it by 5 points, 42-37%. (The rest don't trust either of them to handle it.)
A test of three economic proposals from each candidate fills out the story: Trump has both the most popular and the least popular proposals, with Harris winning the second, third and fourth slots of the six.
Specifically, Trump's suggestion to end income taxes on Social Security benefits leads in popularity, followed by three from Harris -- a tax credit for middle- and lower-income families with newborns, a limit on the profits food companies can make on groceries and grants to first-time home buyers. Two more Trump proposals come next -- raising tariffs on foreign imports, and the one that is unpopular among most people, cutting corporate income taxes.
One of these -- the idea to end taxes on Social Security benefits -- rises to the level of majority "strong" support, 55%. Harris' three proposals also get more strong support than strong opposition, by 10 to 23 points. Trump's remaining items, by contrast, get much less strong support -- and cutting corporate income taxes is more apt to be strongly opposed.
In trust on other issues, Trump holds single-digit leads on handling crime and safety, national security and the conflict in the Middle East; Harris has a single-digit lead on "protecting American democracy." Results for items repeated from past polls are virtually unchanged.
Enthusiasm and attributes
While potential voters are closely divided on many points, enthusiasm and personal favorability are two areas in which Harris has clear advantages. Among registered voters who support her, 84% say they're enthusiastic about it; among Trump supporters, enthusiasm drops by 6 points, to 78%. That's markedly lower than enthusiasm for Trump -- 93% -- at this point in 2020.
Enthusiasm is related to personal favorability, and 44% of Americans see Harris favorably, vs. 35% for Trump. Harris' favorability rating lost 3 points in this poll, and 47% now see her unfavorably. That said, many more, 58%, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
Favorability isn't determinative. Trump has been underwater in favorability consistently since 2015 -- but won the Electoral College eight years ago regardless.
One important boost to Trump is that, among the 15% of registered voters who see both candidates unfavorably, he leads by a wide margin, 62-24%. Looking at it another way, 21% of Trump's supporters see him unfavorably, but support him anyway. The corresponding figure for Harris is just 7%.
Trump also continues to score a few points by portraying Harris as too liberal. Forty-eight percent of Americans see her this way, vs. 43% who call Trump too conservative. That said, 7% call Harris too conservative and 9% call Trump too liberal; at the end of the day, very similar numbers call them "about right" ideologically, 43% for Trump, 41% for Harris.
Debate?
However much they're liked or disliked, another result shows that most people are ready to hear more from the candidates: 57% say Harris and Trump should agree to an additional televised debate, while 41% say not.
Trump reiterated last week that another debate is not in the cards. And there's a difference on the question between their supporters. Among registered voters who prefer Harris, 71% are looking for another debate, while among those who prefer Trump, this drops sharply, to 45%. (After their sole debate last month, 58% overall thought Harris had won it.)
Partisans
With the election close to three weeks away, partisanship infuses survey results. Eighty-five percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the economy is getting worse, for instance, while just 32% of Democrats and Democratic leaners agree. In another example, Republicans and GOP leaners are far more apt than their Democratic counterparts to say the country's best days have passed, 60% vs. 36%.
Policy preferences show similar patterns. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans support mass deportation, as do 58% of independents, compared with 26% of Democrats. (That said, support for deportations has increased broadly compared with a 2016 survey, with the exception of views among Democrats and liberals.)
On abortion, partisan divisions results are reversed: Eighty-seven percent of Democrats say the federal government should restore abortion access, as do 57% of independents, dropping to 27% of Republicans.
Vote preferences
Polls are best used not to recite who's ahead, but to assess how and why the country is coming to its decision. It's also important to keep in mind that the ultimate winner of the popular vote may differ from the winner of the presidency, as demonstrated in 2016 and 2000 (and likewise, for history buffs, in 1888, 1876 and 1824).
With Election Day drawing close and early voting underway, this poll includes slight departures from previous ABC/Ipsos polls this cycle in measuring vote preferences. Survey respondents are offered up to five candidates -- Harris, Trump, Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and Cornel West, and their running mates -- based on which of those candidates are on the ballot in the state where the respondent lives. (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while on the ballot in 30 states and the District of Columbia, is not listed, since he's not actively running. Respondents can volunteer their support for Kennedy or anyone else.)
In addition to being asked whom they'd support, respondents are given the option of saying they already voted. In this survey 1% had done so, a number likely to ramp up quickly.
As mentioned, one shift in this poll is the result among men who are registered to vote -- 52-44% in Trump's favor, compared with a dead heat, 48-48%, in mid-September. That includes a 19-point Trump lead among white men and a close contest among Hispanic men and younger men (age 18-39) alike.
A slight change is among independents, who, per exit polls, have voted for the winner in nine out of the last 12 presidential elections. Harris led among independents by 10 points, 51-41%, in mid-September, compared with a non-significant 5 points now, 49-44%.
Harris, for her part, continues to lead among women by 9 points, 53-44%, aided by her showing among under-40, Black and Hispanic women. And she leads by 14 points among college graduates, 56-42%, among the more reliable groups for turnout.
The 17-point gender gap between the candidates (Trump +8 among men, Harris +9 among women) is back to its typical level; it has averaged 19 points in exit polls since 1996. This reflects the fact that women are 8 points more apt than men to identify as Democrats.
The contest stands at 82-13%, Harris-Trump, among Black people who are registered to vote; that compares with 87-12% in the 2020 exit poll (a slight 5 points lower for Harris; no better for Trump). Black women are at 87-10% now (compared with 90-9% in 2020); Black men are at 76-18% (compared with 79-19% four years ago). These differences from 2020 aren't statistically significant.
Then there's the division of votes by state groupings. In what are thought to be safely and likely red states, Trump is comfortably ahead, 55-42%. In expected blue states, Harris is well ahead, 56-39%. And in the seven battleground states where the contest is expected to be close -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- it couldn't be closer: 49% for Harris, 49% for Trump.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Oct. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,631 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin ofsampling errorof plus or minus 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Error margins are larger for subgroups. For registered voters, the sample size is 2,226 and the error margin is 2 points. For likely voters, the sample size is 1,714 and the error margin is 2.5 points. Sampling error is not the only cause of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodologyhere.
