天主教选民一直是每次总统选举的关键投票群体，候选人都努力争取他们的支持。
今年，争取他们选票的斗争变得越来越激烈，因为前总统唐纳德·特朗普一再声称，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯是反天主教的，但没有证据。
虽然哈里斯没有对特朗普说同样的话，但她向天主教选民传达了一个信息，即她的政策符合他们的社会和政治观点和优先事项。但事实上，一直在研究宗教在政治中的作用的学者告诉ABC新闻，给这个国家的天主教徒贴上一个单一的标签并不容易。
锡拉丘兹大学麦克斯韦尔公民学院的历史学教授玛格丽特·苏珊·汤普森说:“很有意思的是，天主教堂可能是少数几个可以在周日弥撒时看到不同观点的人坐在一起的地方之一。”公共事务部告诉ABC新闻。
汤普森和其他人说，如果过去的选举结果可以作为参考的话，天主教的投票率和他们在投票站做出的选择将取决于多种因素。
不断变化的人口统计数据显示了投票模式的分裂
汤普森一直在研究天主教的投票趋势，他说，在堕胎成为基督徒整体的一个主要竞选议题后的过去44年里，作为一个整体，天主教徒越来越多地投票给共和党。
但是在过去的几十年里，她指出，随着非白人天主教徒数量的增长，美国天主教徒的构成也发生了变化。
皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的数据显示，自2007年以来，美国白人天主教徒的比例下降了8个百分点，而西班牙裔天主教徒的比例上升了4个百分点。
“它极大地改变了地图，”汤普森说。“在南方和亚利桑那州等摇摆州，拉丁裔天主教徒的数量有所增加，他们对自己的信仰和信念带来了自己的观点。”
东伊利诺伊大学政治学副教授瑞恩·布尔格同意这一观点，他收集了该县宗教团体投票模式的数据。
“天主教的投票充满了矛盾，”Burge说。“他们面临很多交叉压力。他们可能是白人，但也是工会成员。他们可能反对LGTBQ权利，但希望获得更好的移民权利。”
伯格告诉美国广播公司新闻，天主教徒的多样性增加也反映了总统竞选的转变。
根据他从哈佛大学合作选举研究中收集的数据，2020年，56%的天主教选民投票给共和党。然而，当社区按种族划分时，59%的白人天主教徒在上次选举中投票给共和党，而只有31%的非白人天主教徒投票给共和党。
“我们看到大多数宗教团体都有同样的种族趋势，”他解释道。
与天主教会的教义不一致
汤普森说，多样性也延伸到天主教徒的政治倾向。
例如，皮尤发现，61%的天主教徒认为堕胎在所有或大多数情况下应该是合法的。美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现，55%的天主教徒宁愿联邦政府恢复堕胎权，就像最高法院否决罗伊诉韦德案之前一样。
“仅仅因为等级制度说‘这是对的，这是错的’并不意味着每个天主教徒都要听从他们的领导，”她说。
Burge还指出，个人宗教之外的文化联系已经纳入了某些天主教团体的个人倾向。
例如，他指出，数据显示，拉丁裔天主教徒比他们的白人和黑人同伴更不赞成促进性少数群体权利和社会主义理想。
“我认为他们被拉向两个方向，”他说拉丁裔天主教徒。“传统上他们是民主党人，我们看到他们中的大多数仍然投票给民主党，但他们在文化上一直是保守的。我认为这就是你看到的一些拉美裔人投票给共和党的转变，因为该党在这些问题上的信息。”
最近的美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现，天主教选民的投票偏好非常接近，51%对48%的特朗普-哈里斯。
“我认为他们似乎是一个更温和的投票集团。我不认为它们是理所当然的，”伯格说。
特朗普在竞选活动中抨击哈里斯的天主教投票
自选举季开始以来，特朗普、拜登和哈里斯的竞选团队一直试图讨好各种宗教团体。
特别是特朗普，他一直在集会、社交媒体和采访中反对哈里斯，称她反天主教。他在一个真实的社交帖子中声称，由于她在生育权上的立场，她失去了天主教的投票，她正在“迫害”这个团体。
“任何投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯同志的天主教徒都应该检查一下他们的脑袋，”他在9月份的一篇《真实社会》帖子中说。
哈里斯在竞选期间很少对天主教投票做出直接评论，也没有参加年度艾尔·史密斯晚宴由纽约大主教区主持，说是因为日程冲突。
尽管她是40年来第一个没有出席晚宴的总统候选人，但她提供了一个视频演讲，其中包括《周六夜现场》演员莫莉·香侬的一个小品。
“路加福音告诉我们，信仰有能力照亮那些生活在黑暗中的人，并引导我们走上和平之路。本着今晚晚宴的精神，让我们再次承诺跨越分歧，寻求理解和共同点，”她说。
特朗普打破了晚宴的软心烧烤，继续在晚宴上攻击哈里斯。
“你不能做我刚刚在屏幕上看到的事情，但我的对手觉得她没有必要在这里，这是对这次活动的极大不尊重，特别是对我们伟大的天主教社区的不尊重。非常不尊重，”他说。
花言巧语对改变天主教选民没什么作用
尽管受到了媒体的关注，但专家们表示，特朗普的言论以及与哈里斯在天主教投票问题上的来回交锋不会产生影响。
汤普森说，剩下的未决选民很少，大多数选民的偏好都锁定在这一点上。
她还指出，特朗普的攻击和信息与他对犹太选民、拉丁裔选民和黑人选民等其他宗教团体使用的语言没有什么不同。
“这是他的口头禅:‘他们应该检查一下他们的脑袋，’”她说。
汤普森还指出，这种情绪也适用于梵蒂冈。
教皇方济各在9月份的选举中进行了权衡，似乎采取了中间立场，声称“人们必须选择两害相权取其轻”
“谁是两害相权取其轻?那位女士还是那位先生?我不知道，”他在新闻发布会上告诉记者。
方济各没有直接点名特朗普或哈里斯或任何一个政党，但即使在指出教会反对堕胎的同时，他也强调了在社会问题上更温和的立场。
“把移民送走，把他们留在你想去的地方，把他们留在那里……这是很可怕的事情，那里有邪恶。把一个孩子从母亲的子宫里送走是一种暗杀，因为还有生命。我们必须清楚地谈论这些事情，”他说。
汤普森说，教皇导致了天主教徒之间的重大分裂，更多的保守派成员对他在性少数群体权利和环境方面的进步立场不屑一顾，更多的自由派成员指责他没有改变教会在生殖权利方面的立场。
“每个人都有选择地倾听教皇的声音，”她说。“我也不认为他的不支持真的会改变人们的想法。”
Burge说，在一天结束时，将影响天主教投票的时刻是候选人在最后几天的言论和行动。
“政客们总是有一个问题，谈论宗教时不能听起来像是在迎合，”他说。“公众只关心他们的立场，以及他们将如何解决他们认为重要的问题。”
American Catholic voters present complex opportunities for Trump, Harris: Academics
Catholic voters have always been a key voting bloc in every presidential election, with candidates vying hard for their support.
And this year, the battle for their votes has gotten aggressive as former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that Vice President Kamala Harris has been anti-Catholic.
While Harris has not said the same about Trump, she has sent a message to Catholic voters that her policies are in line with their social and political views and priorities. But in reality, academics who have been studying religion's role in politics tell ABC News that it's not easy to pin a single label on the nation's Catholics.
"It's really interesting that the Catholic Church is probably one of the few places where you find people with different perspectives sitting together at Sunday Mass," Margaret Susan Thompson, a professor of history at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship& Public Affairs, told ABC News.
Thompson and others said that if past election results are any indication, Catholic turnout and the choices they make at the polls will depend on a variety of factors.
Changing demographics show schism in voting patterns
Thompson, who has been researching Catholic vote trends, said that, as a whole, Catholics have been voting more Republican in the last 44 years after abortion became a major campaign issue for the Christians as a whole.
But over those decades, she noted that the makeup of American Catholics has also changed as the number of non-white Catholics has grown.
Since 2007, the share of American Catholics who are white has dropped by 8 percentage points, while the share who are Hispanic has increased by 4 points, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
"It has changed the map a lot," Thompson said. "Latino Catholics have risen in numbers in the South and in swing states like Arizona and have brought their own perspectives on their faith and their beliefs."
Ryan Burge, associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, who has compiled data on the voting patterns of the county's religious groups, agreed.
"The Catholic vote is full of contradictions," Burge said. "There is a lot of cross-pressures that they face. They may be white, but also a union member. They may be against LGTBQ rights but want better immigration rights."
Burge told ABC News that the increased diversity among Catholics has also reflected a shift in the presidential races.
In 2020, 56% of Catholic voters voted Republican, according to data he compiled from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study. However, when the community was broken down into race, 59% of white Catholics voted Republican last election while it was only 31% of non-white Catholics voted for the GOP.
"We see the same racial trends for most religious groups," he explained.
Not in communion with the Catholic Church's teaching
Thompson said the diversity also extends to Catholics' political leanings.
For example, Pew found that 61% of all Catholics find abortion should be legal in all or most cases. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found 55% of Catholics would rather the federal government restore abortion access as it was before the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade.
"Just because the hierarchy says 'this is right, this is wrong' doesn't mean that every Catholic is going to follow their lead," she said.
Burge also noted that cultural ties outside of one's religion have factored in individual leanings of certain Catholic groups.
For example, he noted that data has shown that Latino Catholics are less in favor of promoting LGBTQ rights and socialism ideals than their white and Black counterparts.
"I think they are pulled in two directions," he said of Latino Catholics. "Traditionally they've been Democratic and we've seen them in a majority still vote Democratic but they've always been culturally conservative. I think that's where you're seeing the shift in some Latino circles voting Republican because of the party's messaging on those issues."
A recent ABCNews/Ipsos poll found that Catholic likely voters are closely divided in vote preference, 51-48% Trump-Harris.
"I think they seem to be a more moderate voting bloc. I don't think they can be taken for granted," Burge said.
Trump slams Harris over Catholic vote on the campaign trail
Since the start of the election season, the Trump, Biden and Harris campaigns have been trying to court various religious groups.
Trump, in particular, has been sounding off in rallies, social media and interviews against Harris, calling her anti-Catholic. He's claimed in a Truth Social post that she lost the Catholic vote due to her stance on reproductive rights and that she was "persecuting" the group.
"Any Catholic that votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should have their head examined," he said in a Truth Social post in September.
Harris has rarely made direct comments about the Catholic vote during the campaign and did not attend theannual Al Smith Dinnerhosted by the Archdiocese of New York, saying it was due to schedule conflicts.
Even though she was the first presidential candidate not to attend the dinner in 40 years, she provided a video speech that included a skit with "Saturday Night Live" alum Molly Shannon.
"The Gospel of Luke tells us that faith has the power to shine a light on those living in darkness and to guide our feet in the path of peace. In the spirit of tonight’s dinner, let us recommit to reaching across divides, to seek understanding and common ground," she said.
Trump, in breaking with the dinner's soft-hearted roasting, continued his attacks on Harris at the dinner.
"You can't do what I just saw on that screen, but my opponent feels like she does not have to be here, which is deeply disrespectful to the event and in particular to our great Catholic community. Very disrespectful," he said.
Rhetoric does little to sway Catholic voters
Despite the media attention, the experts said that Trump's rhetoric and back-and-forth with Harris over the Catholic vote isn't going to move the needle.
Thompson said that there are very few undecided voters left and most voters' preferences are locked in at this point.
She also noted Trump's attacks and messaging are no different from the language he's used for other religious groups, such as Jewish voters, Latino voters and Black voters.
"It's his go-to phrase: 'They should have their head checked,'" she said.
Thompson also noted that the sentiment applies to the Vatican.
Pope Francis weighed in on the election in September and appeared to take a middle ground, claiming "One must choose the lesser of two evils."
"Who is the lesser of two evils? That lady or that gentleman? I don’t know," he told reporters during a news conference.
Francis did not directly name Trump or Harris or either political party, but even while noting the church's opposition to abortion, he also emphasized a more moderate stance on social issues.
"To send migrants away, to leave them wherever you want, to leave them … it’s something terrible, there is evil there. To send away a child from the womb of the mother is an assassination, because there is life. We must speak about these things clearly,” he said.
Thompson said that the pope has contributed to a major schism among Catholics, with more conservative members dismissing his progressive stances on LGBTQ rights and the environment and more liberal members calling him out for not shifting the church's stance on reproductive rights.
"There is selective listening to the pope by everyone," she said. "I don't think that his non-endorsement is really going to change people's minds, either."
Burge said that, at the end of the day, the moments that are going to affect the Catholic vote are in the rhetoric and actions of the candidates in the final days.
"Politicians have always had a problem speaking about religion without sounding pandering," he said. "The public just cares about where they stand and how they are going to tackle the issues they feel are important."
