周二决定的不仅仅是自由世界的下一任领导人。41个州的选民将把决策权掌握在自己手中，因为他们将决定共和党的命运146项投票措施话题涉及堕胎权、选举法、工人权利，甚至毒品合法化。由于政治家上任和制定法律需要时间，在许多情况下，这些投票措施将是美国人从2024年选举中感受到的第一个切实影响。
随着选票上还有很多其他东西不过，很难跟踪146种不同的方法，所以我们把列表缩小到你真正需要知道的。事不宜迟，以下是2024年最重要、最具竞争力和/或最有趣的49项投票措施。
流产
自从最高法院在2022年推翻了罗诉韦德案，堕胎权利的斗争已经转向各州——在许多情况下，堕胎权利倡导者最有效的武器是投票倡议。自裁决以来，已经举行了七次关于堕胎权利的全州投票选举，支持堕胎权利的一方赢得了每一次选举。
这一记录将在周二接受检验，届时10或11项此类措施(取决于你的定义)将被决定。其中最重要的是在亚利桑那州,佛罗里达州,密苏里河,内布拉斯加州和南达科他州目前禁止或严格限制堕胎的五个州。这些州的堕胎权利倡导者收集了足够多的签名，迫使投票决定是否将堕胎权利写入州宪法，这将有效地推翻这些禁令和限制。
根据中值日期为9月25日或更晚的平均民调，亚利桑那州的139号提案遥遥领先，似乎有可能通过。然而，密苏里州的第三修正案、内布拉斯加州的第439号倡议和南达科他州的宪法修正案G的民调都在误差范围内。此外，佛罗里达州的第四修正案平均领先57%至34%，但佛罗里达州的宪法修正案需要60%才能通过，因此也悬而未决。
在内布拉斯加州还有一个难题:另一个正在投票的宪法修正案，倡议434，将禁止妊娠头三个月之后的堕胎(强奸、乱伦和医疗紧急情况除外)。这仅最近的调查去问问这个提议找到了吗也领先，46%对41%。如果内布拉斯加州的两项提案都获得通过，那么得票多的将优先通过。
科罗拉多州,马里兰州,蒙大拿和内华达州也将对保障堕胎权利的州宪法修正案进行投票;然而，这些措施不会立即产生影响，因为堕胎在这些州已经普遍存在。尽管如此，它们并不完全是象征性的。例如，科罗拉多州的修正案79也将废除该州禁止使用公共资金进行堕胎的禁令。在蒙大拿州，堕胎只是因为州最高法院1999年的一项决定才受到保护;宪法倡议128将作为一个故障保险，以防法院推翻这一先例。
民调显示，这些提案都有望轻松通过——甚至在科罗拉多州，宪法修正案需要55%的选票才能通过。然而，内华达州要求宪法修正案在连续两次大选中通过，因此其提案必须在2026年再次通过才能生效。
最后，纽约也将投票表决提议1，扩展了纽约州宪法的平等保护条款，以包括“性，包括性取向、性别认同、性别表达、怀孕、妊娠结果、生殖保健和自主权。”支持者认为这也将保证堕胎的权利，但修正案的措辞比其他州更模糊。无论哪种方式，提案1似乎都有可能通过;它以69%对22%的领先优势十月民意调查锡耶纳学院的。
选举
它没有得到太多关注但是八个州(加上华盛顿特区)可能会戏剧性地改变他们决定今年选举的方式。131号提案科罗拉多州和命题1爱达荷将建立一个新的选举制度，所有候选人，不分党派，在一个初选中竞选，排名前四的候选人进入排名选择大选。(在分级选择投票制下，投票人按优先顺序排列候选人;得票最少的候选人被淘汰，他们的选票被重新分配给选民的第二选择，依此类推，直到一名候选人获得多数票。)最近没有任何关于爱达荷州倡议的民意调查，但是最近YouGov/科罗拉多大学民意调查发现131号提案以46%对31%领先，支持者筹集了更多的钱比对手在两个州.
中的问题3内华达州将实施类似的系统，但前五名主要完成者的进步。A九月民意调查从Noble Predictive Insights发现问题3领先，43%对30%，但有20%尚未决定。这相同的修正案已经在2022年通过，53%对47%，所以它将在今年正式成为法律。
其他州也在考虑类似的改革，但实施起来可能不会那么简单。在…里蒙大拿宪法提案126将要求前四名初选，而宪法提案127将要求候选人获得多数票才能获胜，但它不会规定优先选择投票。相反，它会是直到州议会来决定使用什么系统，这可能会导致排序选择投票和更传统的决选系统之间的混乱辩论。
而在亚利桑那州，第140号提案将需要一个所有党派的初选和一个排名选择的大选——但它没有提到有多少人会从初选中前进。那也将是直到立法机关。让事情变得复杂的是133号提案，这是一项禁止所有党派初选并将党派初选纳入州宪法的竞争措施。就像在内布拉斯加州，如果亚利桑那州的两项措施都通过，得票多的一方将胜出。尽管亚利桑那州的民意测验很丰富，但只有一项调查询问了这些措施中的一项:一个十月民意调查来自反对140号提案的亚利桑那州自由企业俱乐部赞助的数据轨道。民意调查发现，42%的亚利桑那州人支持多党初选，41%的人反对。
在其他地方，阿拉斯加是一个已经使用前四名初选和排名选择大选的州，但选票措施2将使其回到党派初选和“得票最多者当选”大选。一;一个十月民意调查来自阿拉斯加的调查研究发现，该州在这一问题上平分秋色，50%对50%。
我们还没完:如果宪法修正案H通过了南达科他州拉什莫尔山州将转向像加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州那样的前两名初选制度，所有候选人，不分党派，都在同一个初选中竞选，只有前两名胜出者才能晋级。然而，两次民意调查从十月开始发现它以52%对40%的平均差距失败。与此同时，83年的倡议华盛顿特区，尺寸为117英寸俄勒冈州不会禁止党派初选，但会实行优先选择投票制。我们找不到前者的任何民调，而一个十月民意调查公共政策调查和西北进步研究所(支持排名选择投票)发现后者竞争激烈。
还有几项投票措施不会重新设计他们州的选举系统，但却可能对其选举产生重大影响。康涅狄格州将投票表决一项州宪法修正案，允许人们在没有借口的情况下缺席投票。A九月民意调查来自MassINC民意调查小组和CT Mirror发现它以49%对40%的微弱优势领先。
而在俄亥俄州第一个问题是建立一个独立的委员会来划分该州的国会和州立法区，并要求他们反映该州的党派平衡。这种委员会成功地画出了漂亮的地图在其他州和一般都很受欢迎，所以当一个鲍林格林州立大学/YouGov民意调查10月中旬发现第1期领先超过20个百分点。
但是十月下旬的调查来自迈阿密大学的研究发现了一个非常不同的结果:在注册选民中，46%的人支持，45%的人反对。这可能是因为，与鲍林格林州立大学不同，迈阿密大学使用的问题措辞部分来自于它在选票上出现的方式“你打算如何对第一个问题进行投票，这是一项宪法修正案，旨在建立一个不是由本州选民选举产生或罢免的指定选区划分委员会。”
这种不讨好的投票语言俄亥俄州共和党国务卿写的，以及一份更长的选票说明，其中说，问题1将“废除由近四分之三的俄亥俄州选举人批准的反对不公正选区划分的宪法保护”(2015年通过投票措施批准的一个更弱的重划委员会)，并“建立一个新的由纳税人资助的任命委员会，要求不公正地划分州立法和国会选区的边界”(指的是党派公平要求)。这可以说服支持公平选区的选民投票反对修正案;已经有了轶事报道投票者打算为问题1投票而是被投票站的投票语言搞糊涂了，转而投了反对票。
最后，八个州(爱荷华州,爱达荷,肯塔基,密苏里河,北卡罗来纳州,俄克拉何马州,南卡罗来纳州和威斯康星州)也将对投票措施进行投票禁止非公民投票。然而，这在联邦层面已经是非法的，尽管全国有19个城市允许非公民在地方选举中投票，但这八个州中没有一个。批评者声称，保守派将这些措施付诸投票，只是为了放大对非公民非法投票或作为“选票糖果”的毫无根据的担忧——这是一项受欢迎的条款，被添加到一项更具争议的投票措施中，以使其更容易获得通过。例如，密苏里州的第七修正案禁止非公民投票和优先选择投票(即目前在密苏里州没有使用).
工人的权利
通常情况下，提高最低工资是投票箱中的必然赢家。自1998年以来，各国考虑了24项投票措施提高最低工资;24个都通过了。然而，这一记录今年将在三个不同的州接受考验。
提案32在加利福尼亚会把那里的最低工资提高到每小时18美元是全国最高的。10月份的两次不同的民意调查对这项措施是否有效意见不一赢了8分或者输了10分.
与此同时，投票措施1英寸阿拉斯加和命题A密苏里河将最低工资提高到每小时15美元，并要求雇主提供带薪病假。这两项指标都没有最近的民调，但在这两个州，支持者都提高了数百万美元确实有无重大活动反对这些措施。
第三种状态是考虑是否要求带薪病假，也是:内布拉斯加州经由倡议436。不幸的是，我们已经几个月没有看到对这项倡议的投票了。然而，推动带薪病假的委员会已经筹集了320万美元，而没有任何委员会组织起来反对。如果这三个州都投票赞成这些措施，强制带薪病假的州将增加到17个(加上华盛顿特区)。
药
娱乐用大麻在美国已经合法24个国家华盛顿特区，周二，佛罗里达州,北达科他州和南达科他州可以加入他们。事实上，佛罗里达州的第三修正案是全国最昂贵的投票选举活动:以医用大麻公司Trulieve为首的支持者为这场比赛捐赠了1.01亿美元，而反对者则捐赠了2300万美元——这还不包括州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)已经花费的数百万美元纳税人出资的公共服务公告关于大麻危害的警告。自10月1日以来的民意调查平均有61%的支持和36%的反对，刚刚超过它需要通过的60%的支持。
这实际上是北达科他州和南达科他州第三次就大麻合法化进行投票。在北达科他州，它失败了百分之五十九到百分之四十一2018年和55%到45%2022年;然而，今年九月民意调查从WPA情报/北达科他州新闻合作发现发起措施5通过，百分之四十五到百分之四十。在南达科他州，选民实际上将大麻合法化，百分之五十四到百分之四十六，但在2020年被法院驳回;2022年，第二次尝试失败了，百分之五十三到百分之四十七。今年，十月二日民意调查显示发起的措施29以51%对45%的平均差额失败。
马萨诸塞州已经使大麻合法化，但在这次选举中可能会更进一步:问题4将使马萨诸塞州成为第三个使迷幻药合法化的州。自10月1日以来的平均民调显示，这项措施略有领先，47%对42%。
最后，命题36在加利福尼亚将加大处罚力度对于持有毒品和低级盗窃，废除了2014年投票措施的部分内容，该措施将这些重罪重新分类为轻罪，以减少监禁。2014年通过的措施，百分之六十到四十，但平均三最近的民意调查表明36号提案有望以66%对26%的压倒性优势获胜。如果是这样的话，这将是自由派地区拥抱“严厉打击犯罪”政策的最新表现犯罪率上升和无家可归率.
其他主题
保守派对移民和边境的反弹也可能发生亚利桑那州314号提案已经到了极限。这次公投将把它定为州犯罪非法越境并允许国家当局逮捕和驱逐这样做的人。根据的平均值九月二日和十月民意调查这项措施以62%比27%领先。
教育也在选票上.肯塔基美国第二修正案允许公共资金流向私立学校科罗拉多州美国宪法第80修正案将在州宪法中增加“选择学校的权利”。435年全民公决内布拉斯加州还将询问选民是否想废除一项每年拨出1000万美元用于教育券的新法律。和佛罗里达州美国第一修正案将使阳光之州的学校董事会选举党派化。
住房成本是一个全国的大问题，但尤其是在加利福尼亚该委员会将再次投票决定是否取消租金控制，这是一些城市限制房东每年提高租金的政策。33号提案将允许城市对独栋房屋、1995年后建造的公寓和新租户实施租金控制，目前这些都是不允许的。这项措施已经花费了大量的金钱，反对者比支持者更加愤怒，1.25亿至5000万美元这似乎正在起作用:10月份的三次民意调查平均将33号提案置于困境，49%对36%。
自从最高法院允许各州将体育博彩合法化2018年，38个州和华盛顿特区已经这样做了——而且密苏里河如果周二通过第二修正案，他们也可以加入。该修正案将把来自赌博的税收收入用于资助公共教育，尽管学校实际上能拿到多少钱还有些疑问。最最近的民意调查这项措施是从9月开始的，发现它通过了，52%对25%。
最后，关于问题5，缅因州选民将决定是否更换他们的当前状态标志，其特征是蓝色背景上的州印章，带有新型设计基于“孤松旗”，这是缅因州的原始州旗，至今仍是该州纪念品和衣服上的常见图案。从逻辑上讲，这是一个简单的决定—国旗上的州印是不被接受的—但是问题5变成了不仅仅是关于美学的争论。州印章上有一名农民和一名水手，许多缅因州保守派人士认为，取消它会给该州陷入困境的农业和渔业雪上加霜。因此，第五个问题在民意调查中显得有些苍白无力SurveyUSA/Bangor每日新闻/FairVote民调只有33%的人支持，52%的人反对。
脚注
*如果民意调查在多个人群中公布结果，我们使用最窄的可用样本(即潜在选民比注册选民多，注册选民比成年人多)。如果一个民意调查者在这段时间内发布了一个以上的调查，我们只包括最近的。
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
The next leader of the free world isn't the only thing being decided on Tuesday. Voters in 41 states will take policymaking into their own hands as they decide the fate of146 ballot measureson topics as diverse as abortion rights, election laws, workers' rights and even drug legalization. Since it takes time for politicians to take office and make laws, these ballot measures will, in many cases, be the first tangible impact that Americans feel from the 2024 election.
Withso much else on the ballot, though, it's hard to keep track of 146 different measures, so we've narrowed the list down to what you really need to know. Without further ado, here are the 49 most consequential, competitive and/or just plain interesting ballot measures of 2024.
Abortion
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the fight over abortion rights has turned to the states — and in many cases, abortion-rights advocates'most effective weapon has been ballot initiatives. Since the ruling, there have been seven statewide ballot measure elections concerning abortion rights, and the pro-abortion-rights side has won every one.
That record will be put to the test on Tuesday, when10 or 11 such measures(depending on your definition) will be decided. The most consequential of these are inArizona,Florida,Missouri,NebraskaandSouth Dakota— five states where abortions are currently either banned or significantly restricted. Abortion-rights advocates in these states collected enough signatures to force a vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions, which would effectively overturn those bans and restrictions.
According to an average of polls with a median field date of Sept. 25 or later,* Proposition 139 in Arizona has a healthy lead and seems likely to pass. However, Amendment 3 in Missouri, Initiative 439 in Nebraska and Constitutional Amendment G in South Dakota are polling within the margin of error. In addition, Amendment 4 in Florida leads by an average margin of 57 percent to 34 percent, but constitutional amendments in Florida require 60 percent to pass, so that one is up in the air too.
There's also a catch in Nebraska: There is another proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot, Initiative 434, that would ban abortion after the first trimester (with exceptions for rape, incest and medical emergencies). Theonly recent surveyto ask about this proposal found italsoleading, 46 percent to 41 percent. If both Nebraska initiatives pass, the one that receives more votes would take precedence.
Colorado,Maryland,MontanaandNevadawill also vote on state constitutional amendments to guarantee abortion rights; however, these measures would have less of an immediate impact because abortion is already generally available in those states. Still, they're not entirely symbolic. For instance, Colorado's Amendment 79 would also repeal the state's ban on the use of public funding for abortion. And in Montana, abortion is protected only because of a 1999 decision by the state Supreme Court; Constitutional Initiative 128 would serve as a failsafe in case the court overturns that precedent.
Polls suggest that these proposals are all on track to pass easily — even in Colorado, where constitutional amendments require 55 percent of the vote to pass. However, Nevada requires constitutional amendments to pass in two consecutive general elections, so its proposal would have to pass again in 2026 in order to take effect.
Finally,New Yorkwill also vote onProposal 1, which expands the New York State Constitution's equal-protection clause to include "sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy."Supporters arguethat this would also guarantee the right to abortion, but the wording of the amendment is vaguer than in other states. Either way, Proposal 1 seems likely to pass; it led 69 percent to 22 percent in anOctober pollfrom Siena College.
Elections
Ithasn't gotten much attention, but eight states (plus Washington, D.C.) could dramatically change how they decide elections this year. Proposition 131 inColoradoand Proposition 1 inIdahowould establish a new electoral system in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in one primary and the top four finishers advance to a ranked-choice general election. (Under ranked-choice voting, voters rank the candidates in order of preference; the candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to their voters' second choices, and so on until one candidate has a majority.) There haven't been any recent polls of Idaho's initiative, but a recentYouGov/University of Colorado pollfound Proposition 131 leading 46 percent to 31 percent, and supporters haveraised more moneythan opponents inboth states.
Question 3 inNevadawould implement a similar system, but with the top five primary finishers advancing. ASeptember pollfrom Noble Predictive Insights found Question 3 leading, 43 percent to 30 percent, but with 20 percent undecided. Thesame amendmentalready passed in 2022, 53 percent to 47 percent, so it would officially become law with a "yes" vote this year.
Other states are considering similar reforms, but their implementation would be less straightforward. InMontana, Constitutional Initiative 126 would require top-four primaries, while Constitutional Initiative 127 would require candidates to receive a majority in order to win — but itwouldn'tprescribe ranked-choice voting. Instead, it would beup to the state legislatureto decide what system to use, which could lead to a messy debate between ranked-choice voting and a more traditional runoff system.
And inArizona, Proposition 140 would require an all-party primary and a ranked-choice general election — but it's silent on how many people would advance from the primary. That, too, would beup to the legislature. Complicating matters is Proposition 133, a competing measure that would ban all-party primaries and enshrine partisan primaries in the state constitution. Like in Nebraska, if both measures in Arizona pass, the one with more votes would win out. Despite the wealth of polling in Arizona, only one survey has asked about one of these measures: anOctober pollfrom Data Orbital sponsored by the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, which opposes Prop 140. The poll found 42 percent of Arizonans in support of all-party primaries and 41 percent opposed.
Elsewhere,Alaskais the one state that already uses a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election, but Ballot Measure 2 would take it back to partisan primaries and a "first past the post" general election. AnOctober pollfrom Alaska Survey Research found the state evenly divided on it, 50 percent to 50 percent.
We're not done yet: If Constitutional Amendment H passes inSouth Dakota, the Mount Rushmore State would switch to a top-two primary system like California and Washington have, in which all candidates, regardless of party, run in the same primary and only the top two finishers advance. However,two pollsfrom Octoberfound it failing by an average margin of 52 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, Initiative 83 inWashington, D.C., and Measure 117 inOregonwouldn't bar partisan primaries but would institute ranked-choice voting. We weren't able to find any polls of the former, while anOctober pollfrom Public Policy Polling and the Northwest Progressive Institute (which supports ranked-choice voting) found a tight race for the latter.
There are also a couple of ballot measures that wouldn't redesign their state's electoral system but could nevertheless have a big impact on its elections.Connecticutwill vote on a state constitutional amendment to allow people to vote absentee without an excuse. ASeptember pollfrom MassINC Polling Group and the CT Mirror found it narrowly leading, 49 percent to 40 percent.
And inOhio, Issue 1 would create an independent commission to draw the state's congressional and state legislative districts and require them to reflect the partisan balance of the state. Such commissions havesucceeded at drawing fair mapsin other states and are generally pretty popular, so it was little surprise when aBowling Green State University/YouGov pollin mid-October found Issue 1 leading by more than 20 percentage points.
But alate-October surveyfrom Miami University found a very different result: 46 percent support and 45 percent opposition among registered voters. That could be because, unlike Bowling Green State, Miami University used question wording partially lifted fromthe way it will appear on the ballot: "How do you intend to vote on Issue 1, a constitutional amendment to create an appointed redistricting commission not elected by or subject to removal by the voters of the state?"
That unflattering ballot language waswritten by Ohio's Republican secretary of state, along with a longer ballot description that says Issue 1 would "repeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering approved by nearly three-quarters of Ohio electors" (a weaker redistricting commission approved via ballot measure in 2015) and "establish a new taxpayer-funded commission of appointees required to gerrymander the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts" (a reference to the partisan-fairness requirement). This could persuade voters who support fair districts to vote against the amendment; there have already beenanecdotal reportsof votersintending to vote for Issue 1but getting confused by the ballot language in the voting booth and voting against it instead.
Finally, eight states (Iowa,Idaho,Kentucky,Missouri,North Carolina,Oklahoma,South CarolinaandWisconsin) will also vote on ballot measures that wouldprohibit noncitizens from voting. However, this is already illegal at the federal level, and although 19 cities nationwide allow noncitizens to vote in local elections, none of them are in these eight states. Critics have alleged that conservatives only put these measures on the ballot to amplify unfounded fears about noncitizens voting illegally or as "ballot candy" — a popular provision added to a more controversial ballot measure to make it easier to pass. For example, Amendment 7 in Missouri bans both noncitizen voting and ranked-choice voting (which isnot currently used anywhere in Missouri).
Workers' rights
Usually, increasing the minimum wage is a guaranteed winner at the ballot box. Since 1998, states have considered24 ballot measuresto increase the minimum wage; all 24 have passed. However, that record will be put to the test this year in three different states.
Proposition 32 inCaliforniawould raise the minimum wage there to $18 per hour, which wouldbe the highest in the country. Two different polls in October disagreed over whether the measure waswinning by 8 pointsorlosing by 10.
Meanwhile, Ballot Measure 1 inAlaskaand Proposition A inMissouriwould both raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour and require employers to provide paid sick leave. There are no recent polls of either measure, but in both states, supporters have raisedmillions of dollarsand there isno significant campaignagainst the measures.
A third state isconsidering whether to require paid sick leave, too:Nebraska, via Initiative 436. Unfortunately, we haven't seen a poll of the initiative for months. However, the committee pushing paid sick leave has raised $3.2 million, while no committee has organized in opposition. If all three states vote in favor of these measures, it would increase the number of states mandating paid sick leave to 17 (plus Washington, D.C.).
Drugs
Recreational marijuana is already legal in24 statesand Washington, D.C., and on Tuesday,Florida,North DakotaandSouth Dakotacould join them. In fact, Florida's Amendment 3 is one of themost expensive ballot-measure campaigns in the nation: Supporters, led by the medical cannabis company Trulieve, have donated $101 million to the race, while opponents have given $23 million — and that doesn't count millions of dollars that Gov. Ron DeSantis has spent ontaxpayer-funded public service announcementswarning about the dangers of marijuana. Polls since Oct. 1 have averaged 61 percent support and 36 percent opposition, just over the 60 percent support it needs to pass.
And this is actually the third time that North and South Dakota will vote on marijuana legalization. In North Dakota, it failed59 percent to 41 percentin 2018 and55 percent to 45 percentin 2022; this year, however, aSeptember pollfrom WPA Intelligence/North Dakota News Cooperative found Initiated Measure 5 passing, 45 percent to 40 percent. In South Dakota, voters actually legalized marijuana,54 percent to 46 percent, in 2020 but it was struck down in court; in 2022, a second attempt failed,53 percent to 47 percent. This year,two Octoberpolls showInitiated Measure 29 failing by an average margin of 51 percent to 45 percent.
Massachusettshas already legalized pot but could go further in this election: Question 4 would make Massachusetts just the third state to legalize psychedelics. An average of polls since Oct. 1 suggests the measure is slightly ahead, 47 percent to 42 percent.
Finally, Proposition 36 inCaliforniawouldincrease penaltiesfor drug possession and low-level theft, repealing parts of a 2014 ballot measure that reclassified these felonies as misdemeanors in an effort to reduce incarceration. That 2014 measure passed,60 percent to 40 percent, but an average ofthreerecentpollsindicates that Prop 36 is on track to win in a landslide, 66 percent to 26 percent. If so, it would be the latest manifestation of liberal areas embracing "tough on crime" policies in reaction torising crimeandhomelessness rates.
Other topics
A conservative backlash over immigration and the border could also tipArizona's Proposition 314 over the edge. This referendum wouldmake it a state crimeto cross the border illegally and allow state authorities to arrest and deport people who do so. According to an average oftwo SeptemberandOctober polls, the measure leads, 62 percent to 27 percent.
Education is on the ballot, too.Kentucky's Amendment 2 would allow public money to go toward private schools, andColorado's Amendment 80 would add a "right to school choice" to the state constitution. Referendum 435 inNebraskawill also ask voters if they want to repeal a new law that sets aside $10 million a year for school vouchers. AndFlorida's Amendment 1 would make school board elections in the Sunshine State partisan.
Housing costs are abig issue across the country, but especially inCalifornia, which will once again vote on whether to lift restrictions on rent control, a policy in some cities that limits how much landlords can raise rents by each year.Proposition 33would allow cities to enact rent control on single-family houses, on apartments built after 1995 and for new tenants, none of which are currently allowed. A massive amount of money has been spent on this measure, with opponents outraising supporters,$125 million to $50 million, and it seems to be working: An average of three October polls puts Prop 33 in the hole, 49 percent to 36 percent.
Since the Supreme Courtallowed states to legalize sports bettingin 2018, 38 states and Washington, D.C., have done so — andMissouricould join them if it passes Amendment 2 on Tuesday. The amendment would use tax revenue from the bets tofund public education, although there's some question over how much money schools would actually see. The mostrecent pollof this measure is from September and found it passing, 52 percent to 25 percent.
Finally, with Question 5,Mainevoters will decide whether to replace theircurrent state flag, which features the state seal on a blue background, with anew designbased on the "Lone Pine Flag," which was Maine's original state flag and remains a common motif on souvenirs and clothes in the state. Vexillologically, it's an easy call —state seals on flags are frowned upon— but Question 5 has turned intomuch more than a debate over aesthetics. The state seal has a farmer and a sailor on it, and many Maine conservatives feel that removing it would add insult to injury for the state's beleaguered agricultural and fishing industries. Accordingly, Question 5 is flagging in the polls: ASurveyUSA/Bangor Daily News/FairVote pollfound just 33 percent support and 52 percent opposition.
Footnotes
*If a poll published results among multiple populations, we used the narrowest available sample (i.e., likely voters over registered voters and registered voters over adults). If a pollster released more than one survey during this time frame, we included only the most recent.
