美联储周四降息0.25个百分点,在当选总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜仅两天后,为借贷成本设定了最新路径。
两个月前,美联储将基准利率下调了0.5个百分点,放缓了长达一年的反通胀斗争,并为背负高成本的借款人提供了救济。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周四在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上发表讲话,对实现“软着陆”的前景表示乐观,即美国在通胀回归正常的同时避免经济衰退。
鲍威尔说:“我们仍然有信心,通过适当调整我们的政策立场,经济和劳动力市场的实力可以保持,通货膨胀率可持续下降到2%。”
未来几个月,通胀轨迹可能会发生变化。专家们普遍预计,特朗普提高关税和大规模驱逐无证移民的提议将提高消费者价格先前告知ABC新闻。
当被问及美联储对特朗普政策的潜在回应时,鲍威尔表示,央行最终将根据任何政策变化对经济的影响做出决定。
鲍威尔周四表示:“在短期内,选举不会对我们的政策决定产生影响。”。“我们不知道任何政策变化的时机和实质内容。因此,我们不知道对经济会有什么影响。”
“我们不猜测,不推测,也不假设,”鲍威尔补充道。
美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)预测将进一步降息。
根据FOMC的预测,到2024年底,利率将从目前4.5%至4.75%的水平再下降0.25个百分点。预测进一步表明,利率将在2025年期间再下降一个百分点。
最近几个月,美国已经一步步接近一个““软着陆”通货膨胀回归正常,经济避免衰退。
上周公布的政府数据显示经济增长在最近的三个月里,随着一个持续的冷却通货膨胀。
美国招聘减速美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)周五公布的数据显示,10月份,飓风和罢工的影响可能导致全国工人人数被低估。
自2021年以来,美联储一直试图通过提高利率来抑制通胀。即使在美联储9月份下调基准利率后,该利率仍处于历史高位。
通胀率从2022年约9%的峰值大幅降温,徘徊在美联储2%的目标水平附近。
当之前在12月华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上被问及2024年选举时,鲍威尔说,“我们不考虑政治。”
特朗普的当选似乎带来了一个促进对于股市来说。就在特朗普宣布获胜几个小时后,美国股市周三开盘飙升。
道琼斯工业平均指数攀升超过1300点,相当于该指数上涨近3%。年代标准普尔500指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数涨幅均超过2%。
特朗普盟友埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的电动汽车公司特斯拉(Tesla)的股价周三早盘飙升约14.5%。
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, days after election of Trump
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday, setting the latest path for borrowing costs just two days after the victory of President-Elect Donald Trump.
The move comes two months after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate a half of a percentage point, dialing back its yearslong fight against inflation and delivering relief for borrowers saddled with high costs.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell voiced optimism about the prospects for achieving a "soft landing," in which the U.S. averts a recession while inflation returns to normal.
"We continue to be confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and labor market can be maintained with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%," Powell said.
The trajectory of inflation could shift in the coming months. Trump’s proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants are widely expected to raise consumer prices, expertspreviously toldABC News.
When asked about the Fed's potential response to Trump's policies, Powell said the central bank would ultimately make its decisions based on how any policy changes could impact the economy.
"In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions," Powell said on Thursday. "We don’t know what the timing and substance of any policy changes will be. We therefore don’t know what the effects on the economy will be."
"We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume," Powell added.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, has forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall another quarter of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.5% and 4.75%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
In recent months, the U.S. has inched closer to a "soft landing," in which inflation returns to normal and the economy averts a recession.
Government data released last week showed robusteconomic growthover a recent three-month period, alongside a continuedcooldownof inflation.
U.S. hiringslowedin October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation's workers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Friday showed.
Since 2021, the Fed has sought to rein in inflation with elevated interest rates. Even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest in September, it still stands at a historically high level.
Inflation has cooled dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, hovering right near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
When asked previously about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Powell said, "We don't think about politics."
The election of Trump appears to have delivered aboostfor the stock market. The U.S. stock market soared at the open of trading on Wednesday, just hours after Trump declared victory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 1,300 points, amounting to a nearly 3% rise in the index. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each jumped more than 2%.
Shares of Tesla, the electric vehicle company headed by Trump ally Elon Musk, spiked about 14.5% in early trading on Wednesday.