卫生与公众服务部部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪最近几天似乎暗示，得克萨斯州西部的麻疹疫情正在放缓。
在一个在X上发布周日，肯尼迪评论了与疫情有关的第二例死亡，发生在一名未接种疫苗的学龄儿童身上。
大约10分钟后，肯尼迪编辑了帖子，并补充说，自3月初以来，曲线一直在变平，当时他开始从疾病控制和预防中心派出增援部队，为诊所提供疫苗和其他药物。
“从那时起，新病例和住院人数的增长率已经持平，”他写道。
然而，数据来自德克萨斯州健康服务部门的数据显示，随着德克萨斯州西部更多的县报告感染.
得克萨斯州拉伯克的公共卫生主任凯瑟琳·威尔斯上周表示，公共卫生官员正在规划“为期一年的疫情控制时间表”
她说:“这将是一次大规模的爆发，由于传播和检测能力的提高，我们仍然处于病例数量增加的一方。”
公共卫生专家告诉ABC新闻，他们对曲线变平表示怀疑，并认为与疫情有关的病例不仅在增加，而且可能比官方病例数高得多。
“疫情远未得到控制——即使曲线开始变平，我们在全国各地疫苗接种不足的社区仍面临重大风险，”流行病学家兼首席创新官约翰·布朗斯坦博士说，他也是美国广播公司新闻的撰稿人。“有这么多疫苗接种率低的地区，除非采取紧急行动，否则我们仍处于广泛、持续传播的边缘。”
德州可能会有更多病例
根据DSHS的数据，截至周二，得克萨斯州已有505例确诊麻疹病例。
3月28日至4月4日期间，DSHS确诊了81例病例，这是自1月下旬发现首批病例以来，单周确诊病例总数最高的一次。德克萨斯州健康服务部不向公众公布住院费用。
“我们知道，在过去几个月里，出现了更多病例，至少是持续病例。布朗大学公共卫生学院卫生服务、政策和实践副教授克雷格·斯潘塞博士对美国广播公司新闻说:“我们知道，在过去的一个月里，疫情的规模已经大幅上升。
美国广播公司新闻部要求肯尼迪提供一份数据的副本，肯尼迪在声称曲线变平时提到了这些数据，但尚未收到HHS的回复。
“由于我们无法接触到一些社区，所以我们对当地发生的事情没有全面的了解。因此，我当然不会有信心说我们已经停滞不前，”他补充说。
斯潘塞说，他不放心说得克萨斯州的疫情已经稳定下来的一个原因是，他认为病例数可能被低估了。
得克萨斯州DSHS说，3月16日之后报告的任何病例都是不完整的，可能会报告更多的病例。
已有两例确认的死亡与德克萨斯州的爆发有关新墨西哥州的第三起死亡事件正在调查中死亡后检测呈阳性的未接种疫苗的成人.
“我们知道，平均来说，每1000个病例中就有一个死亡病例，”斯潘塞说。“我们已经看到三例死亡，这可能会让你怀疑这可能更像是3000例。”
“感觉非常非常有可能超过500例，”他说，并补充说，“500例病例中有3例死亡不是不可能的，但从统计数据来看，预计死亡人数会更多。”
耶鲁大学公共卫生学院院长梅根·兰尼博士告诉美国广播公司新闻，当数据可能表明情况并非如此时，说病例已经变平是有风险的。也就是说，她担心人们可能不愿意接受测试或治疗。
“我们知道，许多人都在避免正规的医疗护理，因此也就避免了检测。即使人们接受了检测，报告也总是会有延迟，”兰尼说。“我担心人们害怕进行麻疹检测，或者带孩子来接受治疗。”
“我的另一个担心是，我们仍然希望人们采取预防措施，当然，我们知道疫苗不仅是最安全的方式，也是预防麻疹感染的最有效的方式，”她继续说。
肯尼迪提倡不针对所有麻疹病例的全面治疗
在一个周日晚上的第二篇社交媒体帖子，肯尼迪分享说，他见过德克萨斯州死于麻疹的两个学龄儿童的家庭，以及第三个家庭，据报道，他们的一个女儿患麻疹在重症监护室住了三周。
肯尼迪说，他还会见了两位医生，他们用雾化布地奈德和克拉霉素“治疗和治愈”了门诺派社区约300名感染麻疹的儿童。
雾化布地奈德是一种类固醇，用于减少肺部炎症，使呼吸更容易。克拉霉素是一种用于治疗细菌感染的抗生素。
“如果你去任何循证治疗指南，没有说你应该用布地奈德或克拉霉素治疗患者，”斯潘塞说。“现在这些药物有广泛的用途，所以我不会说它们绝对没有麻疹或其他任何疾病的适应症。”
他说，这两种药物都有可能用于麻疹患者，但这要根据具体情况而定。
“我不认为他们会伤害任何人，但他们可能不会帮助任何人，”他补充道。“它们根本不是我会在出现麻疹症状的人身上使用的第一或第二线工具。”
在一个周一接受美国广播公司新闻直播采访食品药品监督管理局生物制品评估和研究中心的前主任彼得·马克斯博士说，布地奈德、克拉霉素和维生素A这是肯尼迪支持的另一种治疗方法，既不是预防措施，也不是对所有麻疹病例的“真正治疗”。
他强调了接种麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹疫苗的重要性。疾控中心目前建议人们接受两剂MMR疫苗，第一剂在12至15个月大时，第二剂在4至6岁之间。一剂有效率为93%,两剂对麻疹的有效率为97%,或对感染麻疹后死亡的有效率接近100%。
一些人可能有对任何疫苗产生不良反应的风险，所以专家说，与卫生保健提供者讨论风险和益处是很重要的。
“这应该是一个简单的决定，就像买一个汽车座椅并给你的孩子系上安全带一样简单，”马克斯谈到如果符合条件就接种疫苗时说。“如果你的孩子没有系好安全带，你就不会开车。你知道，如果你有一个18个月大的孩子，当他们有千分之一的机会得麻疹时，他们会死于麻疹，你为什么不给孩子一些可以防止他们死于感染的东西?”
RFK Jr. claims curve is flattening in Texas measles outbreak. Does the data agree?
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seemed to imply in recent days that the measles outbreak in western Texas was slowing down.
In apost on Xon Sunday, Kennedy remarked on the second death linked to the outbreak, which occurred in an unvaccinated school-aged child.
About 10 minutes later, Kennedy edited the post to add that the curve has been flattening since early March, when he started sending in reinforcements from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- supplying clinics with vaccines and other medications.
"Since that time, the growth rates for new cases and hospitalizations have flattened," he wrote.
However,datafrom the Texas Department of State Health Services showed that cases are increasing, withmore counties in western Texas reporting infections.
Katherine Wells, director of public health for Lubbock, Texas, said last week that public health officials were projecting "a year-long timeline for control of the outbreak."
"This is going to be a large outbreak, and we are still on the side of increasing number of cases, both due to spread and increased testing capacity," she said.
Public health specialists told ABC News they are skeptical that the curve is flattening and believe that cases linked to the outbreak are not only increasing, but likely much higher than the official case count.
"This outbreak is far from under control -- even if the curve begins to flatten, we still face major risks in under-vaccinated communities across the country," said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and chief innovation officer, as well as an ABC News contributor. "With so many pockets of low vaccination, we're still on the brink of widespread, sustained transmission unless urgent action is taken."
Likely more cases in Texas
As of Tuesday, there have been 505 confirmed measles cases in Texas, according to DSHS data.
Between March 28 and April 4, DSHS confirmed 81 cases -- one of the highest totals confirmed in a single week since the first cases were identified in late January. The Texas Department of State Health Services does not make hospitalization rates available to the public.
"We know that there have been more cases, at least sustained cases, over the past couple months. We know that the size of the outbreak has jumped pretty substantially over the past month," Dr. Craig Spencer, an associate professor of the practice of health services, policy and practice at the Brown University School of Public Health, told ABC News.
ABC News has requested a copy of the data that Kennedy is referring to when making claims about the curve flattening, but has not yet heard back from the HHS.
"We don't have a full picture of what's happening on the ground because of our inability to reach some communities. And so, I certainly would not feel confident saying that we have plateaued," he added.
Spencer said one reason he is not comfortable saying the outbreak has plateaued in Texas is that he believes the number of cases is likely an undercount.
Texas DSHS said any cases reported after March 16 are incomplete, and additional cases may be reported.
There have beentwo confirmed deaths linked to the Texas outbreakand a third death is being investigated in New Mexico in anunvaccinated adult who tested positive after dying.
"We know that there's really, on average, about one death for every around 1,000 cases," Spencer said. "We've already seen three deaths, which would make you suspect it's probably more like 3,000 cases."
"It feels very, very likely that the count is higher than 500," he said, adding, "It's not impossible for there to be three deaths among 500 cases, but statistically, one would expect more cases for that number of deaths."
Dr. Megan Ranney, dean of the Yale School of Public Health, told ABC News there is risk in saying the cases have flattened when the data may suggest otherwise. Namely, she said is worried that people may be dissuaded from getting tested or treated.
"We know that many people are avoiding formal medical care and therefore testing. There is always a delay in reporting even when people are tested," Ranney said. "I worry that people are afraid to get measles tested or to bring their kid in for care."
"My other worry is we still want people to take prevention measures and, of course, we know the vaccine is not only the safest way, but also the most effective way to prevent infection with measles," she continued.
Kennedy promotes catch-all treatments not intended for all measles cases
In asecond social media post on Sunday evening, Kennedy shared that he had met the families of the two school-aged children who died of measles in Texas, as well as a third family who reportedly had a daughter in the ICU for three weeks with measles.
Kennedy said he also met with two physicians who have "treated and healed" about 300 children infected with measles in the Mennonite community with aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.
Aerosolized budesonide is a steroid used to reduce inflammation in the lungs, making it easier to breathe. Clarithromycin is an antibiotic used to treat bacterial infections.
"If you were to go to any evidence-based treatment guidelines, there is nothing that says you should treat patients with budesonide or clarithromycin," Spencer said. "Now those are medications that have a broad suite of uses, and so I'm not going to say that they have absolutely no indication for measles, or really anything else."
He said there are scenarios in which either medication may be used in a measles patient, but it is on a case-by-case basis.
"I don't think that they're hurting anyone, but they're probably not helping anyone," he added. "They are not at all tools that I would reach to as my first, or really even second, line of tools that I would use in someone presenting with symptoms consistent with measles."
In aninterview with ABC News Live on Monday, Dr. Peter Marks, the former director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research within the Food and Drug Administration -- who is reported to have been forced out -- said budesonide, clarithromycin andvitamin A-- another treatment endorsed by Kennedy -- are neither preventatives nor "real treatment" for all cases of measles.
He highlighted the importance of receiving the measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR, vaccine. The CDC currentlyrecommendsthat people receive two doses of the MMR vaccine, the first at ages 12 to 15 months and the second between 4 and 6 years old. One dose is 93% effective, and two doses are 97% effective against measles or nearly 100% effective against dying of measles after contracting it.
Some people may be at risk for an adverse reaction with any vaccine, so experts say it's important to discuss the risks and benefits with a health care provider.
"It should be an easy decision, as easy as buying a car seat and strapping your kid in," Marks said about getting a vaccine if eligible. "You would never drive without your kid strapped into their car seat. You know, if you had an 18-month-old, why wouldn't you give that child something that could prevent your child from dying of an infection when there's a one in 1,000 chance if they get measles, they would die from it?"
