能源和气候变化专家表示，唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统政府的行动将大大减缓全球经济脱碳的速度。
自1月份上任以来，特朗普已经签署了几项旨在取消美国气候行动的行政命令。专家们说，尽管这些行动引发了环境界的不确定性，但它们不会导致全球大幅减少温室气体排放的努力嘎然而止。
根据专家的说法，这些政策将如何影响美国在气候斗争中的国际地位以及实现碳净零经济的集体目标:
到目前为止，特朗普政府的主要反环境政策
在特朗普第二个任期就职以来的四个月里，他已经宣布能源危机在美国。将美国从巴黎协定第二次;增加的木材生产在国家森林和扩大煤的开采和使用在美国。
特朗普政府已经撤销了几十项美国环境保护署的法规旨在保护环境;解雇了数百名员工在美国国家海洋和大气管理局删除了对气候变化的提及来自公共网站。
上周，特朗普发布行政命令，保护“美国能源免受国家过度干预”。这些订单包含的语言可能阻止州和地方法律的实施这是煤炭、石油、天然气、水电、地热、生物燃料和核能生产或使用的障碍，并且可能撤销法规影响能源项目和环境。
内政部也宣布了一项新的离岸租赁计划上周在美国外大陆架。
生物多样性中心的高级律师雷切尔·马修斯(Rachel Mathews)在接受美国广播公司(ABC News)采访时表示，“已经到了逐步停止海上钻井和石油泄漏的时候了，而不是为更多的事情让路。”。“很明显，石油和天然气与清洁安全的海洋环境不相容。”
的”气候回溯器哥伦比亚大学萨宾气候变化中心(Sabin Center for Climate Change)的一个数据库列出了自1月9日以来采取的近100项行动。
其他国家将不得不收拾脱碳的烂摊子
特朗普的行动在很大程度上被减轻美国对世界其他地区的依赖这一理念所掩盖。
特朗普说:“我们拥有地球上任何国家都最多的石油和天然气，我们将使用它。”在他的就职演说中一月份。“我们将降低价格，再次充实我们的战略储备，将美国的能源出口到全世界。我们将再次成为一个富裕的国家，而我们脚下的液体黄金将有助于实现这一目标。”
但专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，这些行政命令可能会大大减缓全球实现净零目标的进展，这是个别国家已经在努力实现的目标。
全球各国，包括一些最大的排放国，已经制定了未来几十年实现经济脱碳的宏伟目标。中国的目标是到2060年使其经济达到净零，或碳中和影响。印度承诺到2070年达到净零。巴西第30届联合国气候变化框架公约(COP30)缔约国会议的东道主，承诺到2050年实现碳中和美国(United States的缩写)在拜登政府下。
美国进步中心(Center for American Progress)国际气候高级研究员弗朗西斯·科隆(Frances Colon)告诉美国广播公司(ABC News)，虽然没有一个国家有望实现这些目标，但近年来拜登政府在国内推动的气候斗争的势头现在已经逆转。
但作为历史上最大的温室气体排放国，美国应该是为世界其他国家树立脱碳榜样的国家之一，同时帮助较小、较贫穷的国家实现净零目标联合国。据统计，自1850年以来，美国排放了20%的二氧化碳碳简报，一个气候科学数据库。历史上第二高的排放国是中国，占11%;俄罗斯为7%;巴西为5%，印度尼西亚为4%。
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心的高级研究员诺亚·考夫曼告诉美国广播公司，欧洲一直是全球能源部门向可再生能源转型的领导者，而中国则是清洁技术的领导者。
加州大学圣地亚哥分校创新和公共政策教授大卫·维克托告诉美国广播公司新闻，失去的势头将使美国进一步落后，这将导致美国人失去节省能源账单的机会，以及美国公司从清洁技术发展中获利的机会。
特朗普的政策可能会减缓脱碳，但不会完全停止
弗吉尼亚大学达顿商学院教授迈克尔·鲁诺告诉美国广播公司新闻，特朗普的政策，特别是针对可再生能源的政策，可能是共和党将化石燃料重新推向前沿的最后一次努力。
鲁诺认为，最终，一些核心行业的重大技术变革将导致市场接管，并迫使经济体采用清洁能源。
“我不认为势头已经停止，”维克托说。"我认为联邦政策现在一片混乱。"
从内燃机到电动汽车的转变已经在几个国家大规模发生。在挪威，几乎90%新车销售中有10%是电动汽车。超过50%中国新车销量的10%是电动汽车。
鲁诺说，一旦电动汽车的成本开始低于内燃机汽车，在电动汽车销售方面一直落后于世界其他国家的美国可能会开始赶上来。
鲁诺说，在钢铁和水泥生产等许多难以脱碳的行业采用可再生能源，最终将导致化石燃料为这些供应链提供动力的时代结束。
“在全球范围内，清洁能源投资的增速是化石燃料投资的两倍，”科隆说。
专家们说，中国是引领脱碳技术的国家之一。
“他们在电池技术、电动汽车、太阳能和风能方面进行了巨额投资，基本上拥有供应链，特别是电池等上游部分，”鲁诺说。
专家表示，尽管特朗普政府可能试图让煤炭、天然气和石油回到能源的最前沿，但这不太可能发生。增加产量和向市场供应过剩将导致价格下跌——这是化石燃料行业想要避免的。
“事实是，很多这种东西在商业上是有意义的，并且会继续发展下去，”维克托说。
Earth Day 2025: How the Trump administration's policies will impact global decarbonization
The actions of President Donald Trump's administration will significantly decelerate the race to decarbonize economies around the world, according to energy and climate change experts.
Since taking office in January, Trump has signed several executive orders aiming to dismantle climate action in the U.S. While these actions have spurred uncertainty in the environmental community, they won't cause global efforts to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to come to a screeching halt, the experts said.
This is how these policies will affect America's international standing in the climate fight and the collective aim to reach a carbon net-zero economy, according to the experts:
Major anti-environment policies by the Trump administration, so far
In the four months since Trump took office for his second term, he hasdeclared an energy crisisin the U.S.; removed the U.S. from theParis Agreementfor the second time; increasedtimber productionin national forests and expanded themining and use of coalin the U.S.
Trump's administration hasrolled back dozens of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulationsaimed at protecting the environment;laid off hundreds of employeesat the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration andremoved mentions of climate changefrom public websites.
Last week, Trump issued executive orders to protect "American energy from state overreach." These orders contain language that couldblock enforcement of state and local lawsthat are obstacles to production or use of coal, oil, natural gas, hydropower, geothermal, biofuel and nuclear energy and potentiallywithdraw regulationsthat affect energy projects and the environment.
The Department of the Interior also announced a newoffshore leasing planon the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf last week.
"It's past time to phase out offshore drilling and oil spills, not make way for more," Rachel Mathews, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement to ABC News. "It's clear that oil and gas doesn't mix with a clean and safe ocean environment."
The "Climate Backtracker," a database by Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change that tracks steps taken by the Trump administration to scale back or eliminate federal climate mitigation and adaption measures, lists nearly 100 actions taken since Jan. 9.
Other countries will have to pick up the slack on decarbonization
Trump's actions are largely shrouded in the idea of lessening American dependence on the rest of the world.
"We have the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it," Trump saidduring his inauguration speechin January. "We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top and export American energy all over the world. We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it."
But these executive orders could significantly slow down global progress on reaching their net-zero goals -- something individual countries are already struggling with, experts told ABC News.
Countries around the globe, including some of the biggest emitters, have made ambitious goals to decarbonize their economies in the coming decades.Chinais aiming to get its economy to net-zero, or a carbon neutral impact, by 2060.Indiahas pledged to reach net-zero by 2070.Brazil, the host of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP30, has promised to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 -- as has theU.S., under the Biden administration.
While no one country is on track to meet those goals, the momentum in the climate fight seen in recent years, spurred domestically by the Biden administration, has now been reversed, Frances Colon, senior fellow of international climate at the Center for American Progress, told ABC News.
But as the top historical emitter of greenhouse gases, the U.S. should be among the countries setting an example for the rest of the world to decarbonize while helping smaller, poorer countries achieve net-zero goals as well, according to theUnited Nations. The U.S. is responsible for 20% of the carbon dioxide emissions released since 1850, according toCarbon Brief, a climate science database. The next-highest historical emitters are China at 11%; Russia at 7%; Brazil at 5% and Indonesia at 4%.
Europe has been the global leader of transitioning its energy sectors to renewables, while China has been the leader of clean tech, Noah Kaufman, a senior researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told ABC News.
The lost momentum will send the U.S. lagging even further behind, which will result in missed opportunities for Americans to save on their energy bills and for American-based firms to profit from the development of clean tech, David Victor, a professor of innovation and public policy at the University of California San Diego, told ABC News.
Trump's policies may slow down decarbonization, but won't halt it altogether
Trump's policies, especially the ones targeting renewable energy, may be the GOP's last hurrah to bring fossil fuels back to the forefront, Michael Lenox, a professor at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business, told ABC News.
Eventually, major technological shifts in a number of core industries will cause markets to take over and force economies to adopt clean energy, according to Lenox.
"I don't think the momentum has stopped," Victor said. "I think the federal policy is in chaos right now."
The transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles is already happening on a large scale in several countries. In Norway, nearly90%of new car sales are EVs. More than50%of new car sales in China are EVs.
Once the cost of EVs begins to drop lower than internal combustion vehicles, the U.S., which has been lagging behind the rest of the world in EV sales, will likely start to catch up, Lenox said.
The adoption of renewable energy for a host of sectors that are harder to decarbonize, like the production of steel and cement, will eventually lead to the end of utilization of fossil fuels to power those supply chains as well, Lenox said.
"Clean energy investments are outpacing fossil fuel investments two-to-one globally," Colon said.
China is among the countries leading the technologies that are going to allow for decarbonization, the experts said.
"They have made huge investments in battery technology, EVs, solar and wind, and basically own the supply chain of especially the kind of upstream part of things like batteries," Lenox said.
While the Trump administration may be trying to bring coal, gas and oil back to the forefront of energy sources, it's not likely to happen, the experts said. Increasing production and flooding the market with excess supply will cause prices to go down -- something the fossil fuel industry wants to avoid.
"The reality is, a lot of this stuff makes sense commercially, and that continues forward," Victor said.
