每逢中期选举年，总统发表国情咨文时，都会遭遇政治逆风。历史经验也表明，中期选举对执政党向来毫不留情新华网。
问题不在于这番讲话能否点燃特朗普最狂热支持者的热情 —— 答案是肯定的。更值得深究的是：特朗普是否认为自己需要争取更广泛的支持，还是仅靠动员现有基本盘，就足以让共和党继续掌控国会。
从周二演讲的基调来看，特朗普显然清楚当前政治焦点所在。他用大量篇幅谈及民生负担，包括医疗、住房、能源成本。美国广播公司新闻 - 华盛顿邮报益普索最新民调显示，57% 的美国人不认可特朗普整体经济治理表现。
尽管如此，总统仍对国家发展前景信心满满。
“我们的国家回来了，比以往任何时候都更强大、更美好、更富裕。” 特朗普宣称。他声称美国 “经济正以前所未有的势头蓬勃发展”，当下是 “美国的黄金时代”。
特朗普在部分议题上措辞相对克制，比如称最高法院近期推翻其关税政策的裁决 “令人遗憾、令人失望”;但演讲其他部分，又回归到能煽动基本盘的好斗风格。
他指责民主党人在民生负担问题上散布 “肮脏、恶毒的谎言”。第二任期上任一年多，他仍将经济压力归咎于前总统拜登;谈及内幕交易时，点名批评前众议院议长南希・佩洛西;在性别认同与性别肯定医疗议题上，他断言 “民主党人正在摧毁我们的国家”;还毫无证据地重复选举舞弊猖獗的说法，甚至调侃这 “本该是他的第三个任期”。
演讲火药味有所收敛，但老习惯依旧难改。
国会控制权的归属，取决于势均力敌州里数量不断减少的摇摆选区。这一现实让特朗普的演讲基调，与他宣扬的政策同等重要。感到选情吃紧的总统，往往会扩大诉求范围;而自认稳操胜券的总统，无论对错，都会选择强化与反对党的对立。
特朗普的演讲兼顾民生经济议题与能激励支持者的对抗性表述。他的政治策略向来更侧重点燃支持者热情，而非扩大阵营。
此次国情咨文是这一策略的微调版：他以民生负担为切入点，但始终未脱离能煽动基本盘的斗争议题。
总统描绘出美国正走出危机、在建国 250 周年之际迈入 “黄金时代” 的图景。
今年，选民将用选票给出对这一说法的最终评判。
Trump's 'golden age' State of the Union vision faces midterm test: ANALYSIS
In any midterm year, the president faces political headwinds when delivering State of the Union remarks. And history suggests that midterm elections are unforgiving to the party in power.
The question isn't whether these remarks will energize he most ardent supporters of President Donald Trump. They will. The more revealing question is whether Trump believes he needs to expand beyond them at all -- or whether motivating his existing coalition is enough to keep Congress in Republican hands.
The tone of Tuesday's speech suggests that Trump understands what's politically salient. He spent a considerable amount of time addressing affordability, the cost of healthcare, housing, energy costs. The latest ABC News-Washington Post Ipsos poll found that 57% of Americansdisapprove of how Trump is handling the economyoverall.
Still, the president projected confidence in the country's trajectory.
"Our nation is back. Bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before," Trump declared. The president claimed that the "economy is roaring like never before" and that this is "the golden age of America."
While Trump used measured language on some issues, like calling the recent Supreme Court ruling undoing his tariffs "unfortunate" and "disappointing," other parts of his speech reverted to the combative style that animates his base.
He accused Democrats of spreading a "dirty, rotten lie" when they speak about affordability. More than a year into his second term, he blamed former President Joe Biden for economic strain. He singled out former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi while discussing insider trading. While speaking about gender identity and gender-affirming care, he asserted that "Democrats are destroying our country." He repeated claims of rampant voter fraud without evidence. At one point, he quipped that this "should be his third term."
The temperature was lower, but old habits die hard.
Control of Congress hinges on a narrowing number of swing districts in closely divided states. That reality makes the tone of Trump's speech as important as the policies he touted. Presidents who sense vulnerability tend to broaden their appeal. Presidents who feel confident, wrongly or rightly so, sharpen contrasts with the opposing party instead.
Trump's address blended kitchen-table economics and the kind of confrontation that energizes his supporters. Trump's political playbook has always focused more on firing up his supporters than widening the tent.
Trump's address was a modified version of that approach. He led with affordability but never strayed too far from the fights that energize his base.
The president presented a country rebounding from crisis and entering what he called a "golden age" as it nears its 250th anniversary.
This year, voters will deliver their own assessment of that claim.
