周二，佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔只选出了第二位民主党市长30年后-重组政治全国15个最大的城市之一，以及全国增长最快的红色州之一的一个大摇摆县。
前电视新闻主播唐娜·迪根在州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯的出生地击败JAX商会首席执行官丹尼尔·戴维斯后，州和国家民主党人都庆祝这一胜利，认为这是中期选举后不到六个月的潜在转变看到共和党人四处游荡这是一个常年摇摆不定的州。
杰克逊维尔有一个联合市县政府，曾是美国最大的由共和党人管理的城市。现任兰尼·库里是有任期限制的。
“成功是用选举来衡量的...佛罗里达的民主党人获得了巨大的支持。佛罗里达州民主党主席尼基·弗里德在对美国广播公司新闻的一份声明中说:“在佛罗里达州最大的城市的投票中，唐娜·迪根领先，民主党在9场选举中赢得了6场选举。”。
一位接近拜登竞选团队的消息人士(要求不透露姓名)对此表示赞同。
“我们认为这向那些把我们排除在佛罗里达州之外的人发出了一个非常强烈的信号，”他们说。“我认为这是对中期选举的重大转变，所以这无疑发出了一个良好的信号，让我们有点进攻。”
迪根还创办了一个当地著名的乳腺癌非营利组织，她发起了“变得更好”的运动，并传达了透明的信息——“打开百叶窗，把阳光带进来，”她说曾说过。她的三个关键问题是基础设施、医疗保健和增加对大小企业的支持。
前市议会议员戴维斯在竞选期间大力强调“法律和秩序”以及公共安全。他警告说，用他的话说，杰克逊维尔有可能陷入纽约或旧金山面临的一些同样的问题，除非这座城市接受像德桑蒂斯这样支持戴维斯的保守派的愿景。
像迪根一样，戴维斯也将基础设施和经济列入他的优先事项。但与迪根不同的是，他必须避开来自其他三名共和党候选人的有争议的挑战。
注意到后一种动态，共和党人淡化了仅一次选举的更广泛影响，并坚称他们周二的失败更多地是因为戴维斯无法从“非常残酷、血腥的初选”中恢复过来，而不是共和党在全州的势头发生了逆转。
“这是一个笑话，用一些市政比赛来说，在一个不景气的年份...可以说，这是一个关于该州如何表现的某种指标，该州是一个共和党州，不是民主党县，而是一个共和党州，”该州共和党主席克里斯蒂安·齐格勒在接受采访时说。
2023年5月13日，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯在爱荷华州锡达拉皮兹的爱荷华州共和党招待会上发表讲话。
斯蒂芬·马特伦/盖蒂图片社
竞选财务报告显示，在周二的决胜选举之前，戴维斯在4月份的支出比迪根多150万美元，达到25.6万美元。
在...期间最初的三月选举四名共和党人、两名民主党人或独立候选人都没有超过50%的投票门槛，尽管迪根领先。
齐格勒说:“这场竞选的现实是……数百万美元被用于攻击我们最终的共和党提名人，这对他伤害很大，流了很多血。”。
民主主义者勉强超过选举结果显示，共和党人在杰克逊维尔的家乡杜瓦尔县进行选民登记，但共和党选民周二参加了大量投票，迪根赢得了更多的选票。她以超过四个百分点的优势击败戴维斯投了7000多张票超过注册的民主党人。
杜瓦尔位于该州的东北端，长期以来一直是一个摇摆县。
2020年，美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)以51%的得票率赢得大选后，德桑蒂斯在2022年以近12%的优势轻松赢得了杜瓦尔。
“这是一种摇摆，这是德桑蒂斯的家乡，很有趣。资深民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔在选举日之前说:“这与威斯康星州最高法院(今年早些时候的选举)的影响不一样，但我告诉你，许多政治消息来源将关注这场比赛每个人都说民主党在佛罗里达已经死了，对吗?这可能是我希望它悄悄出现在人们身上的东西之一。"
尽管如此，专家们警告说，这些结果可能会被过度解读。
“毫无疑问，杰克逊维尔是一个大城市，也是该州的一个重要地区，但这不是一场全州范围的竞选，”共和党策略师马特·特里尔说。“我认为，当然，民主党人会将此视为胜利，特别是考虑到他们在最近的中期选举中面临的挑战。”
一名民主党官员告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)，进入周二，民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)从拜登的支持者网络中激活了志愿者，进行了超过13万次对话，以动员杰克逊维尔的选民，强调了该党所说的最近的改革努力投资2024年之前在佛罗里达。
今年早些时候接任佛罗里达州民主党主席的前州长候选人兼州农业专员弗里德指出，共和党在竞选前拥有“巨大的财政优势”，但他表示，这不足以成为民主党的基础游戏，也是一个更有说服力的信息。
弗里德周三在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时表示:“罗恩·德桑蒂斯继续推动对犯罪和经济主义的攻击，昨天证明，随着民主党人在面包和黄油问题上进行竞选，这些共和党谈话要点没有达到预期效果。”。“佛罗里达州的民主党人正在把2022年放在我们的后视镜里。我们在2018年将杜瓦尔变成了蓝色，现在我们正在夺回我们的领土。”
齐格勒在周二之前表示，他对佛罗里达州共和党人自己的地盘“相当有信心”，并提到了里克·斯科特参议员周末在该县的竞选活动以及他为投票所做的努力。
然而，德桑蒂斯在竞选活动中缺席了。虽然他“一开始”就支持戴维斯，但这位州长在杰克逊维尔市长选举前的周末在爱荷华州穿梭，预计他将在2024年宣布竞选白宫。
前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)很可能是德桑蒂斯在明年共和党初选中的主要竞争对手，他很快就杰克逊维尔的结果对德桑蒂斯进行了独特的抨击。
“这太令人震惊了。如果他们让我支持，他会轻而易举地获胜。太骄傲而不能这样做。傻瓜!”特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道。
该州共和党主席齐格勒说，德桑蒂斯对戴维斯的支持在竞选文学和广告中广泛传播。
“我不知道你到底还想从州长那里得到多少，”齐格勒说。“显然，任何额外的活动都会有所帮助，但这就足够了吗——这是个问题，对吗?我只是不确定。”
Why Democrats are touting Jacksonville mayoral win as rebuke of DeSantis' playbook
Jacksonville, Florida, on Tuesdayelected only its second Democratic mayorin 30 years --reshuffling the politicsof one of the country's 15 largest cities and a large swing county in one of the nation's fastest-growing red states.
After former TV news anchor Donna Deegan defeated JAX Chamber CEO Daniel Davis in the runoff in Gov. Ron DeSantis' birthplace, both state and national Democrats celebrated the victory as a sign of a potential shift not even six months after the midterm electionssaw Republicans romp aroundwhat had been a perennial swing state.
Jacksonville, which has a joint city-county government, had been the largest city in the country run by a Republican. Incumbent Lenny Curry was term-limited.
"Success is measured in elections, and ... Florida Democrats came up huge. Donna Deegan headed up a ticket that saw Democrats win in 6 of the 9 elections on the ballot in Florida's largest city," the Florida Democratic Party chair, Nikki Fried, said in a statement to ABC News.
A source close to the Biden campaign, who asked not to be quoted by name, echoed that.
"We see this as sending a pretty strong signal to folks that count us out of Florida," they said. "I think it's such a significant swing past where the midterms were, so it definitely sends a good signal and puts us on the offense a little bit."
Deegan, who also started a locally notable breast cancer nonprofit, campaigned on "change for good" and a message of transparency -- "throw open the blinds and bring the sunshine in," shehas said. Her three key issues were infrastructure, health care and increasing support for businesses, big and small.
Davis, a former City Council member, heavily emphasized "law and order" and public safety during his campaign. He warned that Jacksonville risked, in his words, sliding into some of the same issues faced by New York or San Francisco unless the city embraced the vision of conservatives like DeSantis, who endorsed Davis.
Like Deegan, Davis also included infrastructure and the economy among his priorities. But unlike Deegan, he had to stave off contentious challenges from three other GOP hopefuls.
Noting the latter dynamic, Republicans played down the broader implications of just one election and insisted their loss on Tuesday had more to do with Davis' inability to recover from the "very brutal, bloody primary" than any reversal in GOP momentum across the state.
"It's kind of a joke, to use some municipal race, in an off year ... to say that it's some sort of indicator on how the state, which is a Republican state, not a Democrat county, but a Republican state, is going to perform," state Republican Party Chair Christian Ziegler said in an interview.
Campaign finance reports show that Davis outspent Deegan $1.5 million to $256,000 in April following a comparably expensive race leading up to Tuesday's runoff.
Duringthe initial March election, none of the four Republicans, two Democrats or the independent candidate crossed the 50%-vote threshold, though Deegan led.
"Here's the reality in this race … millions of dollars were spent targeting our eventual Republican nominee that cut him a lot and took a lot of blood," Ziegler said.
Democratsnarrowly outnumberRepublicans in voter registration in Duval County, home to Jacksonville, but GOP voters turned out in larger numbers on Tuesday and Deegan won more of them, election returns show. She beat Davis by more than four points in a race where Republicanscast more than 7,000 votesmore than registered Democrats.
Duval, on the northeast tip of the state, has long acted as a perennial swing county.
After President Joe Biden won it with 51% in 2020, DeSantis handily won Duval by a nearly 12% margin in 2022.
"It's kind of a swing, it's DeSantis' home county, it's interesting. It's not the same impact as the Wisconsin Supreme Court [election earlier this year], but I tell you, a lot of political sources are going to be looking at this race," veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said ahead of Election Day. "Everybody says the Democrats are dead in Florida, right? This could be one of these things that I'm kind of hoping it sneaks up on people."
Still, experts across the aisle cautioned that the results can be over-interpreted for their implications.
"Jacksonville is a large city and in an important area in the state, no question, but this is not a statewide race," GOP strategist Matt Terrill said. "I think, certainly, the Democrats will champion this as a win, particularly given the challenges that they've had coming out of the most recent midterm elections."
Heading into Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee activated volunteers from Biden's supporter network to have more than 130,000 conversations to turn out voters in Jacksonville, a Democratic official told ABC News, underscoring what the party calls recent efforts to overhaulinvestmentin Florida ahead of 2024.
Fried, a former gubernatorial candidate and state agriculture commissioner who took over as chair of the Florida Democrats earlier this year, noted Republicans' "huge financial advantage" ahead of the race but said that fell short of Democrats' ground game -- and a more persuasive message.
"Ron DeSantis continues to fuel attacks on crime and wokeism and yesterday proved that those GOP talking points fell flat as Democrats campaigned on bread-and-butter issues," Fried said in an interview with ABC News on Wednesday. "Florida Democrats are putting 2022 in our rearview mirror. We turned Duval blue in 2018, and now we're reclaiming our territory."
Ziegler said before Tuesday that he was "pretty confident" in Florida Republicans' own ground game, noting Sen. Rick Scott's weekend campaigning in the county and his efforts to get out the vote.
Missing from the campaign trail, though, was DeSantis. While he endorsed Davis "right out of the gate," the governor spent the weekend before the Jacksonville mayoral election crisscrossing Iowa ahead of his expected announcement of a 2024 White House run.
Former President Donald Trump, who is likely to be DeSantis' main competition in the Republican primary next year, was quick to take a characteristic shot at DeSantis over the Jacksonville results.
"This is a shocker. If they would have asked me to Endorse, he would have won, easily. Too proud to do so. Fools!" Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
Ziegler, the state GOP chair, said that DeSantis' support for Davis was widely broadcast across campaign literature and advertisements.
"I don't know how much more you really want from the governor," Ziegler said. "Obviously any additional activity helps, but would it have been enough -- that's the question, right? And I'm just not sure."
