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随着卡玛拉·哈里斯和唐纳德·特朗普向男性选民伸出援手,以下是民调显示的“性别差距”

2024-10-12 08:38 -ABC  -  310390

  离选举日只有大约三个星期了,两个主要政党的候选人都在努力争取全国的选民,重点是男性选民。

  副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的竞选搭档,明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔兹是开始了接触男性选民的新努力在摇摆州,哈里斯竞选团队向ABC新闻证实。

  这包括“早安美国”的联合主持人迈克·斯特拉恩一对一面试这在周五早上播出,以及Walz周五前往密歇根州,在那里他会见了黑人男性选民,并接受了当地电视采访,重点是狩猎和高中足球。

  他还参加了周五的曼卡托西斯卡利特足球赛,并在他曾任教和执教足球的明尼苏达高中给球队打打气。

  另外,前总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)周四作为哈里斯的竞选代理人,严厉批评了黑人男子不投票给哈里斯的“借口”,在他的集会之前,他在匹兹堡东自由社区的一个竞选办公室停留期间发表了评论,称他发现不投票给前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)“是不可接受的”。

  前总统唐纳德·特朗普也一直在努力争取男性选民,特别是年轻男性。这包括加入安德鲁·舒尔茨(Andrew Schulz)和阿卡什·辛格(Akaash Singh)的播客,以及最近受男性听众欢迎的播客主持人的其他长时间采访。

  最新的民调仍然显示,哈里斯和特朗普在男性和女性中的支持度存在“性别差距”,更多男性支持特朗普,更多女性支持哈里斯。

  A皮尤研究中心对注册选民的民意调查周四公布的调查发现,哈里斯和特朗普在全国范围内的登记选民中竞争激烈,但男女选民之间的差距较大。

  这发现投票51%的男性登记选民支持特朗普,43%支持哈里斯。在女性登记选民中,这种情况实际上是相反的:52%的女性登记选民支持哈里斯,而43%的人支持特朗普。

  这是一个动态的政治战略家和分析家已经注意到的。“唐纳德·特朗普试图在男性中增加人数的方式,[哈里斯]必须在女性中做同样的事情,”《堡垒》的出版商、长期政治战略家莎拉·朗韦尔告诉美国广播公司新闻特约记者兼政治剧本作者雷切尔·巴德在最近的一次政治剧本深度播客采访中.

  然而,性别差距并不是前所未有的:自1996年以来,在总统出口民调中,性别差距平均为19个百分点(这是因为女性比男性更有可能认同民主党人8到10个百分点)。此外,根据出口民调,皮尤的调查结果与过去两届总统选举中的性别差距相似。

  2020年,53%的男性支持特朗普,45%的男性支持时任副总统乔·拜登;而57%的女性支持拜登,42%支持特朗普。2016年,52%的男性支持特朗普,而41%的男性支持民主党提名人希拉里;但54%的女性支持克林顿,而41%的女性支持特朗普。

  根据538最近的一项分析哈里斯和特朗普之间的性别差距实际上比8月份略有缩小,尽管哈佛青年民意调查在9月份公布发现了一个大缺口在年轻选民中,无论男女,哈里斯在年轻男性中上升了17个百分点,在年轻女性中上升了47个百分点。

  单独的盖洛普最近的分析发现年轻女性越来越认同政治自由主义;根据盖洛普的调查,这种趋势不是由种族或教育推动的。

  最近的一些民调也深入研究了黑人男性对哈里斯和特朗普的支持,因为不确定两位候选人是否做了足够多的努力来接近他们。民调显示,黑人男性压倒性地支持哈里斯,但特朗普获得的黑人男性支持多于黑人女性。

  皮尤研究中心的民意调查发现,在注册选民中,72%的黑人支持哈里斯,20%支持唐纳德·特朗普。根据皮尤的数据,在登记为选民的黑人女性中,卡玛拉·哈里斯有85%的支持率,而唐纳德·川普只有8%。(与任何调查一样,调查中较小群体的抽样误差更大,因此这些结果可能不如调查的更广泛结果精确。)

  然而,其他民调显示,黑人选民中的性别差距有所缩小。一;一个美联社-NORC民意调查在9月中旬分别进行的调查发现,66%的黑人男性选民认为卡玛拉·哈里斯会成为一个好总统,类似于64%的黑人女性选民和65%的黑人选民。21%的黑人男性选民认为特朗普会成为一名好总统,相比之下,只有11%的黑人女性选民和15%的黑人选民认为特朗普会成为一名好总统。(调查没有询问受访者会投票给谁。)

  As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump reach out to male voters, here's what polls show about 'gender gaps'

  With just about three weeks until Election Day, the two major party candidates are working hard to reach voters around the country -- with a key focus on male voters.

  Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, waskicking off a new push to reach male votersin swing states, the Harris campaign confirmed to ABC News.

  This included "Good Morning America" co-anchor Michael Strahan'sone-on-one interviewthat aired on Friday morning, as well as Walz's Friday travel to Michigan where he met with Black male voters and did local TV interviews focused on hunting and high school football.

  He was also attending the Mankato West Scarlets football game on Friday -- and giving a pep talk to the team at the Minnesota high school where he taught and also coached football.

  Separately, former President Barack Obama on Thursday -- as a campaign surrogate for Harris -- sternly criticized Black men over what he called "excuses" to not vote for Harris, making comments during a stop at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh's East Liberty neighborhood ahead of his rally, saying he finds sitting out or voting for former President Donald Trump "not acceptable."

  Former President Donald Trump has also been working to reach male voters -- particularly younger men. That includes joining podcasts such as "Flagrant" with Andrew Schulz and Akaash Singh, as well as other recent long interviews with podcast hosts popular among male listeners.

  The latest polling still shows a "gender gap" among Harris' and Trump's support among men and women, with more men supporting Trump and more women supporting Harris.

  APew Research Center poll of registered voterspublished on Thursday found Harris and Trump in a close race nationally among registered voters nationwide -- but there's a larger gap between them among male and female voters.

  Thepoll found51% of male registered voters supporting Trump, and 43% supporting Harris. Among female registered voters, that is effectively reversed: 52% of female registered voters support Harris, while 43% support Trump.

  This is a dynamic political strategists and analysts have noticed. "The way that Donald Trump is trying to run up the numbers with men, [Harris has] got to do the same thing with women," Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and a longtime political strategist, told ABC News contributing correspondent and POLITICO Playbook author Rachael Badein a recent POLITICO Playbook Deep Dive podcast interview.

  However, the gender gap is not unprecedented: it has averaged 19 points in presidential exit polls since 1996 (which is because women are 8 to 10 percentage points more likely than men to identify as Democrats). Additionally, Pew's findings are similar to the gender gap seen in the past two presidential elections, according to exit polls.

  In 2020, 53% of men supported Trump while 45% supported then-Vice President Joe Biden; while 57% of women supported Biden and 42% supported Trump. In 2016, 52% of men supported Trump while 41% supported Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton; but 54% of women supported Clinton while 41% supported Trump.

  According toa recent analysis by 538, the gender gap between Harris and Trump has actually narrowed slightly from where it was in August, although the Harvard Youth Poll published in Septemberfound a large gapamong younger voters of either gender – with Harris up 17 points among young men and up 47 points among young women.

  A separaterecent analysis from Gallupfound that young women have increasingly identified as politically liberal; according to Gallup, that trend is not driven by race or education.

  Some recent polls have also delved into Black male support for Harris and Trump, amid uncertainty over whether either candidate is doing enough to reach them. Polling shows that Black men overwhelmingly support Harris, but that Trump has more support from Black men than from Black women.

  The Pew Research Center's poll found that among Black men who are registered voters, 72% support Harris while 20% support Donald Trump. Among Black women who are registered voters, according to Pew, Kamala Harris has 85% support while Donald Trump has only 8%. (As with any poll, there is a higher margin of sampling error for smaller groups within the poll, so these results may be less precise than the poll's broader findings.)

  Other polls indicate somewhat less of a gender gap among Black voters, however. AnAssociated Press-NORC polltaken in mid-September separately found that 66% of Black male voters say Kamala Harris would make a good president -- similar to 64% of Black female voters and 65% of Black voters overall. 21% of Black male voters think Trump would make a good president, as opposed to 11% of Black female voters and 15% of Black voters overall. (The poll did not ask about who respondents would vote for.)

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上一篇:特朗普在2024年选举周期最后一段的竞选活动中超过了哈里斯和瓦尔兹
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