参议院民主党人即将迎来周二的选举，他们面临着一生中的一场战斗:以一张如此强大的地图捍卫51-49的多数席位，共和党人称这是他们十年来取得进展的最佳机会。
共和党人已经将这一比例降至50-50，西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)是一名与民主党人进行党团会议的独立人士，他退休后，可能会确保共和党州长吉姆·贾斯蒂斯(Jim Justice)将在该国最深的红色州之一取代他。
现在，民主党人基本上需要拉一个同花顺来保持自己的多数席位，依靠几个久经沙场的现任和众议院成员来保持他们在红州和紫州的席位，同时还关注极少数非常困难的翻转机会。
即使他们成功捍卫所有蓝色席位，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普击败副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯，民主党人可能仍会发现自己是少数派，副总统候选人JD Vance将成为共和党的决胜局。
周二有五场参议院竞选值得关注，这将有助于确定参议院的控制权以及民主党人处于劣势的竞选。
蒙大拿
民主党参议员乔恩·特斯特(Jon Tester)已经连任三届，尽管在不友好的地区竞选，但他以前也经历过艰难的竞选。但是他的第四个任期的竞选可能是他最大的挑战。
Tester正在与商人和前海军海豹突击队·蒂姆·希伊竞选，他是一位富有的候选人，受到参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔和参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯的追捧，史蒂夫·戴恩斯是参议院共和党人竞选团队的主席，他的使命是推翻Tester，他的同事蒙塔南。
民意测验让特斯特望而生畏——他在2005年落后了5个多百分点538的平均投票率自7月9日以来，他就没有领先过这项指标。
Tester依靠他作为一个七根手指的农民和第三代蒙塔南人的真实性，表明他听到了他的选民的担忧，并为他们而战。他还希望堕胎公投将有助于提高民主党人的投票率。
与此同时，希伊作为一名商人指责斯特与日益共和党化的国家脱节，华盛顿整体功能失调。他面临着来自Tester的一系列攻击，包括他前臂如何遭受枪伤的问题，以及他不是来自蒙大拿州的事实，该州长期以来一直优先考虑地方意识，但越来越多的富裕的州外人士购买土地。
尽管斯特过去曾有过成功的走钢丝表演，但他仍被认为面临着艰难的处境。特朗普在2020年以超过16个百分点的优势赢得了该州，尽管斯特预计将领先于哈里斯，但对于现任参议员来说，这种领先优势可能是不可逾越的。
除非民主党能够获得共和党控制的席位，否则测试失败可能会让共和党获得参议院多数席位。
俄亥俄州
民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗也在这个从紫色变成红色的州竞选他的第四个任期，危及他的连任机会。
布朗以蓝领民粹主义者的身份参选，声音沙哑，穿着经常起皱的西装，凸显他的普通人真诚。布朗是工会的支持者，也是一些国际贸易协定冷却之前的反对者，他一直在没有大学学位的白人选民中表现出色，这些人过去投票给民主党，但现在却集体倒戈投向特朗普。
在去年57%的俄亥俄州人支持保护堕胎权利的全民公决后，他在堕胎问题上也非常倾向。他还推出了以执法部门的支持为特色的广告，以此将自己与国家民主党的品牌区分开来。
布朗面对的是哥伦比亚移民兼商人伯尼·莫雷诺。莫雷诺努力工作-并花费了数百万美元-让布朗对于一个两次支持特朗普8个百分点的州来说过于自由。他也关注社会问题，包括堕胎和参加女性运动的变性运动员。
莫雷诺从未领先过平均538次投票但他已经明显地挤掉了布朗的优势，在7月底落后6.5个百分点后，现在只落后1.2个百分点。莫雷诺得到了华盛顿共和党人大量外部支出的帮助，他们希望尽可能多地获得多数席位，特别是在蒙大拿州似乎越来越超出民主党人的能力范围之外。
在这方面，总统的差额预计也将发挥重要作用。和Tester一样，布朗有望跑在哈里斯前面。但如果特朗普第三次扩大他的胜利优势，布朗可能会面临巨大的阻力。
密歇根
民主党参议员黛比·斯塔贝诺(Debbie Stabenow)的退休为共和党人填补紫色州的空缺提供了最佳机会。
这场比赛将民主党众议员埃利萨·斯洛特金与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯进行角逐。斯洛特金领先3.5个百分点538的平均投票率，以及筹款优势，但现任者的缺乏使这场比赛对共和党人特别有兴趣。
斯洛特金依靠她过去作为部署到伊拉克的中央情报局分析师，罗杰斯反对堕胎保护的投票和她的交叉上诉，包括她从前众议员利兹·切尼的支持。
与此同时，罗杰斯在过去的批评后接受了特朗普，并就跨性别运动员和对电动汽车制造的担忧攻击了斯洛特金(斯洛特金重申，她住在土路上，但希望“下一代”汽车在该州制造)。
该州总统和参议员竞选中的一个巨大的X因素是加沙战争，这场战争激怒了密歇根州的大量阿拉伯人口，并有可能使选民对总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)和今年的民主党候选人感到不满和不满。
宾夕法尼亚州
民主党参议员鲍勃·凯西(Bob Casey)是宾夕法尼亚州的常客，他的父亲是前州长，凯西的名字响彻整个州。
然而，他将面对一个富有的对手戴夫·麦考密克，这位前对冲基金高管今年被大量招募来竞选。他在2022年参加竞选，但在共和党初选中输给了穆罕默德·奥兹博士。奥兹继续输给了现任参议员约翰·费特曼
宾夕法尼亚州是激烈和竞争激烈的总统竞选的发源地，参议员竞选也不例外。凯西领先了2.6个百分点平均538次投票不过这一领先优势已经从8月份的逾8个百分点有所缩小。
凯西和民主党人就堕胎、他在康涅狄格州的住所以及过去与中国的商业联系对麦考密克进行了攻击。与此同时，麦考密克在2022年支持奥兹后与特朗普发生冲突后，接受了特朗普，并指责凯西与宾夕法尼亚人脱节，在华盛顿过于根深蒂固，推动选民在周二“做出改变”。
亚利桑那州
与民主党人一起参加党团会议的独立参议员Kyrsten Sinema在3月份宣布，她不会竞选第二个任期，这为共和党人创造了一个绝佳的机会。
然而，2022年州长候选人和今年共和党参议员候选人失败的卡莉·莱克(Kari Lake)正在后撤。
民主党众议员鲁本·加莱戈在2004年一直领先538的平均投票率尽管特朗普被认为在总统层面上在该州具有优势。
这场比赛代表了一个罕见的例子，低知名度是有利的，特别是在亚利桑那州这样一个重视实用主义的国家。
加莱戈作为一名进步人士有着广泛的过去，但他在自己的选区外并不是一名特别知名的立法者，这给他提供了一个将自己重塑为温和派的机会，包括在抨击特朗普的边境墙后支持加强边境执法等事情。
与此同时，莱克在2022年成为MAGA摇滚明星，特别是在她抨击“麦凯恩共和党人”并拒绝接受她在那年州长竞选中的失败之后。她今年寻求温和，包括与前州长道格·杜西(Doug Ducey)接触，但她比加莱戈有更巩固的煽动者形象，这使得很难吸引凤凰城内外的中间派，他们掌握着亚利桑那州胜利的关键。
她仍然没有承认她2022年竞选的结果，也没有承认特朗普2020年的失败。
这场竞选可能会提供关键线索，说明民主党如何在今年普遍担心倒戈的情况下将拉美裔选民留在自己的阵营中。加莱戈拥有哥伦比亚和墨西哥血统，是一名战斗老兵，他说他已经与拉丁裔选民交谈过，这些选民表示他们将支持他和特朗普。
这场竞选也将成为整个参议院边缘的晴雨表。如果Gallego获胜，共和党人将后悔错过了机会，但如果Lake能够取得胜利，这可能意味着共和党人在其他地方也度过了一个美好的夜晚。
民主党的进攻机会
民主党人正在少数几个由共和党人占据的席位中角逐，尽管他们在翻转其中任何一个席位时都面临巨大的胜算。
得克萨斯州的共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹和佛罗里达州的里克·斯科特分别与众议员科林·奥尔雷德和前众议员黛比·穆卡塞尔-鲍威尔对决。FiveThirtyEight的平均民调显示，民主党和共和党都在明显的距离之内，国家党已经开始在那里花钱，特别是在德克萨斯州。然而，对于民主党人来说，这两个红色州都是很难取得进展的地区，尤其是在总统年。
独立的丹·奥斯本也在内布拉斯加州挑战共和党参议员黛比·费舍尔。奥斯本坚称，他不会与参议院的任何一个政党进行党团会议，但共和党人一直努力将他描绘成穿着中间派服装的民主党人。民调显示竞争激烈，但奥斯本在这个严重倾向共和党的州也面临阻力。
5 races to watch that will decide control of the Senate
Senate Democrats are heading into Tuesday's elections facing the fight of their lives: defending a 51-49 majority with a map so formidable that Republicans have called it their best opportunity in a decade to gain ground.
Republicans have already all but gotten that down to 50-50, with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, retiring, likely assuring that GOP Gov. Jim Justice will replace him in one of the deepest red states in the country.
Now, Democrats are basically needing to pull a straight flush to keep themselves in the majority, leaning on several battle-hardened incumbents and House members to keep red- and purple-state seats in their column while also eyeing an extremely small set of highly difficult flip opportunities.
And even if they succeed in defending all the blue seats, Democrats may still find themselves in the minority if former President Donald Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris, with vice presidential nominee JD Vance serving as the GOP tiebreaker.
Here are five Senate races to watch Tuesday that will help determine Senate control and the sliver of races where Democrats are on offense.
Montana
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, a three-term incumbent, has emerged from tough races before, despite running in unfriendly territory. But his race for a fourth term may be his toughest challenge yet.
Tester is running against businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a wealthy candidate who was highly sought after by Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Steve Daines, the chair of Senate Republicans' campaign arm who has made it his mission to unseat Tester, his fellow Montanan.
The polls are daunting for Tester -- he's behind by more than 5 points in538's polling average, and he hasn't led in the metric since July 9.
Tester has leaned on his authenticity as a seven-fingered farmer and third-generation Montanan to suggest that he hears the concerns of his constituents and is fighting for them. He's also hoping that an abortion referendum on the ballot will help boost turnout among Democrats.
Sheehy, meanwhile, has run as a businessman who accuses Tester of being out of touch with the increasingly Republican state and Washington overall being dysfunctional. He's faced a slew of attacks from Tester, including questions over how he suffered a gunshot wound to his forearm and the fact that he's not originally from Montana, a state that has long prioritized a sense of place but has increasingly seen wealthy out-of-staters buy land.
Still, Tester is thought to be facing tough odds despite his past successful high-wire acts. Trump won the state by over 16 points in 2020, and while Tester is anticipated to run ahead of Harris, such a margin at the top of the ticket could be insurmountable for the incumbent senator.
Unless Democrats can pick off a GOP-held seat, a Tester loss would likely hand Republicans the Senate majority.
Ohio
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is also running for his fourth term in a state that has gone from purple to red, imperiling his chances of reelection.
Brown is running as a blue-collar populist, sporting a gravelly voice and often wrinkled suit that emphasize his everyman bona fides. A vocal union supporter and opponent of some international trade agreements before it was cool, Brown has consistently overperformed with the kind of white voters without a college degree who used to vote Democratic but have defected en masse to Trump.
He's also leaned heavily on the issue of abortion after 57% of Ohioans supported a referendum last year protecting access to the procedure. He's also launched ads featuring support from law enforcement as a way to separate himself from national Democrats' brand.
Brown is facing Bernie Moreno, a Colombian immigrant and businessman. Moreno has worked hard -- and spent millions -- to cast Brown as too liberal for a state that went for Trump by 8 points twice. He, too, has focused on social issues, including abortion and transgender athletes participating in female sports.
Moreno has never led in the538 polling average, but he has significantly cut into Brown's edge, now trailing by just 1.2 points after being down by 6.5 points at the end of July. Moreno has been aided by a flood of outside spending from Republicans in Washington who are looking to build as large of a majority as possible, particularly as Montana appears to be increasingly out of reach for Democrats.
Here too, the presidential margin is anticipated to play a significant role. Like Tester, Brown is expected to run ahead of Harris. But if Trump expands his margin of victory a third time around, Brown could face significant headwinds.
Michigan
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow's retirement opened a top opportunity for Republicans to fill a purple-state vacancy.
The race pits Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin has a 3.5-point edge in538's polling average, as well as a fundraising advantage, but the lack of an incumbent makes the race particularly appetizing for Republicans.
Slotkin has leaned on her past as a CIA analyst who deployed to Iraq, Rogers' votes against abortion protections and her crossover appeal, including her endorsement from former Rep. Liz Cheney.
Rogers, meanwhile, has embraced Trump after past criticism and attacked Slotkin over transgender athletes and worries over the manufacturing of electric vehicles (Slotkin repeats that she lives on a dirt road but wants the "next generation" of vehicles to be made in the state).
A massive X factor in both the presidential and Senate races in the state is the war in Gaza, which has infuriated Michigan's substantial Arab population and risks leaving voters displeased with and disaffected from President Joe Biden and Democratic candidates this year.
Pennsylvania
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, a three-term incumbent, is a fixture in Pennsylvania -- his father was a former governor and the Casey name rings out across the state.
However, he'll face a well-heeled opponent in Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who was heavily recruited to run this year. He ran in 2022, but lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary. Oz went on to lose to now-Sen. John Fetterman, D.
Pennsylvania is home to fierce and competitive presidential-level fighting and the Senate race is no different. Casey is up by 2.6 points in the538 polling average, though that has shrunk from a more than 8-point lead in August.
Casey and Democrats have attacked McCormick over abortion, his residence in Connecticut and past business ties to China. McCormick, meanwhile, has embraced Trump after bumping heads with him in 2022 after he endorsed Oz, and accused Casey of being out of touch with Pennsylvanians and too entrenched in Washington, pushing voters to "make a change" on Tuesday.
Arizona
Dealmaking Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, announced in March that she wouldn't run for a second term, setting up a prime flip opportunity for Republicans.
However, Kari Lake, the failed 2022 gubernatorial nominee and GOP Senate nominee this year, is on her back foot.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has held a consistent lead in538's polling averageeven as Trump is thought to have an edge in the state on the presidential level.
The race represents a rare case of low name recognition being advantageous, particularly in a state like Arizona that values pragmatism.
Gallego has an extensive past as a progressive, but he wasn't a particularly well-known lawmaker outside of his district, offering him a chance to rebrand himself as a moderate, including supporting things like increased border enforcement after hammering Trump's border wall.
Lake, meanwhile, became a MAGA rock star in 2022, particularly after she panned "McCain Republicans" and refused to accept her loss in the gubernatorial race that year. She has sought to moderate this year, including reaching out to former Gov. Doug Ducey, but she has a more cemented image of a firebrand than Gallego, making it difficult to appeal to centrists in and around Phoenix who hold the key to victory in Arizona.
She still has not conceded the results of her 2022 race or Trump's 2020 loss.
The race could offer key clues as to how Democrats could keep Latino voters in their column amid widespread worries of defections this year. Gallego, of Colombian and Mexican descent and a combat veteran, has said that he has talked to Latino voters who say they'll support both him and Trump.
The race will also serve as a barometer of sorts on the margin in the overall Senate. Republicans will rue a missed opportunity if Gallego wins, but if Lake is able to pull a victory off, it likely means that Republicans have had a good night elsewhere too.
Democrats' offensive opportunities
Democrats are playing in a small handful of Republican-held seats, though they face steep odds in flipping any of them.
GOP Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida are facing off against Rep. Colin Allred and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, respectively. FiveThirtyEight's polling averages show both Democrats within striking distance, and the national party has begun spending money there, particularly in Texas. However, both red states are tough territory for Democrats to gain ground in, particularly in a presidential year.
Independent Dan Osborn is also challenging GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska. Osborn has insisted he won't caucus with either party in the Senate, but Republicans have worked hard to paint him as a Democrat in centrist's clothing. Polling indicates a tight race, but Osborn too faces headwinds in a state with a heavy Republican lean.
