伦敦-巴沙尔·阿萨德总统的政权在1999年令人震惊地垮台叙利亚周日，当反对派战士和大马士革人庆祝他们与独裁政府长达14年的战争结束时，美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在X上写道，这是“一个历史性机遇的时刻”。
但是，总统补充说，“这也是一个充满风险和不确定性的时刻。”
起义始于2011年南部城市德拉的抗议游行，终于2024年大马士革的庆祝枪声。
上个月从西北部伊德利卜省爆发的令人惊讶的叛军攻势表明，大马士革政权是空心的。其在莫斯科、德黑兰和贝鲁特的支持者无法或不愿做出回应，或许是因为他们的注意力和资源被乌克兰、黎巴嫩、加沙和其他地方的战争消耗殆尽。
大马士革陷落的故事可以说是在顿涅茨克和达西亚写成的。然而，这一致命一击是叙利亚固有的。
推翻阿萨德的攻势由Hayat Tahrir al-Sham领导，这是一个与基地组织有渊源的伊斯兰组织。该组织被美国和欧盟列为恐怖组织。
白宫国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文(Jake Sullivan)周末表示，该组织的背景“令人担忧”，并指出该组织的成员与“双手沾满美国人鲜血”的组织有关联。
HTS领导人阿布·穆罕默德·阿尔·乔拉尼已经成为叙利亚反对派最容易辨认的面孔。乔拉尼周日在大马士革8世纪的倭马亚清真寺发表讲话时说，反对派的胜利“对该地区来说是历史性的”，“叙利亚正在得到净化。”
乔拉尼越来越多地使用他的真名艾哈迈德·沙拉，而不是他的笔名，目前尚不清楚他是否以及如何能够控制来自全国各地的不同反叛力量。
美国是怎么想的?
美国官员担心权力真空会让“伊斯兰国”重组。美国周日对叙利亚中部的“伊斯兰国”目标发动了75次打击，国防部长劳埃德·奥斯丁称此举旨在“保持对“伊斯兰国”的压力”
奥斯汀警告说:“随着事态的发展，该地区的一些国家，如“伊斯兰国”，可能会试图利用这个机会重新获得能力。”。
美国和叙利亚关系的未来形态将取决于大马士革下一届政府的组成和方向。
白宫可能对乔拉尼周日在倭马亚清真寺的讲话感到有些高兴，他在讲话中哀叹叙利亚如何成为“伊朗野心的游乐场”。
“我们将保持警惕，”拜登周日在大马士革沦陷后表示。“毫无疑问，一些推翻阿萨德的反叛组织也有恐怖主义和侵犯人权的恶劣记录。”然而，总统补充说，这些团体“现在说的是正确的事情。”
“但是，随着他们承担更大的责任，我们将不仅评估他们的言论，而且评估他们的行动，”拜登补充说。
国土安全部负责反恐政策的前副助理部长托马斯·s·沃里克(Thomas S. Warrick)表示，美国“在接下来的事情中有着巨大的利害关系”，即使它没有直接参与阿萨德的下台。
沃里克写道，一个更加稳定的叙利亚“摆脱对伊朗和俄罗斯的依赖”，可以让数百万难民返回家园，结束其作为真主党威胁以色列的渠道的角色，甚至可能在未来某个时候加入亚伯拉罕协议。
“所有这些不可思议的事情现在都成为可能，”Warrick写道，他现在是大西洋理事会Scowcroft中东安全倡议的非常驻高级研究员。“但是，没有外界的帮助和支持，这不会自然发生。叙利亚的战后规划需要加速进行。”
即将上任的特朗普政府需要制定对叙利亚的政策方针。有些人将对成功持怀疑态度，但沃里克写道，其他人将指出，“削弱伊朗的影响力，支持以色列的安全和黎巴嫩的和平，是特朗普政府有望实现的最大胜利之一。”
奥斯汀说，世界对阿萨德的叙利亚崩溃的速度感到“惊讶”
叙利亚的权力斗争
在最近接受CNN采访时，Jolani说叙利亚人不应该害怕HTS的伊斯兰主义。他说:“害怕伊斯兰治理的人要么看到了它的不正确实施，要么没有正确理解它。”
随着叛军抵达大马士革，阿萨德总理穆罕默德·加齐·贾拉里表示，即将离任的政权将向反对派“伸出手”，并协助权力过渡。乔拉尼周日表示，在过渡期间，贾拉利将留任监督国家机构。
Jolani和他的HTS将在新的叙利亚争夺影响力。
土耳其支持的叙利亚国民军也参加了进攻，在该国东北部，国民军和由美国支持的库尔德叙利亚民主力量之间的战斗仍在进行。安卡拉对索马里民族同盟和其他团体享有很大的控制权，可以预期它会寻求对其邻国的未来方向施加影响。
英国皇家联合服务研究所智库的Burcu Ozcelik告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“反对派不是一个同质的运动，HTS领导的伞式运动内部的分裂有可能导致不和并威胁叙利亚的稳定，这种分裂可能在未来几周和几个月内变得更加突出。”
“一个新的叙利亚过渡政府将很快需要承担起国家建设的任务，包括重建叙利亚国家安全部队和宪法建设进程，因为叙利亚国家已经被阿萨德政权痛苦地神圣化了，”奥兹切利克说。
下一届政府还需要解决俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在问题。俄罗斯军队仍然控制着叙利亚地中海沿岸的赫梅米姆空军基地和塔尔图斯海军基地，这两个关键的战略设施是莫斯科帮助阿萨德掌权的基础。
“寻求保持接触符合俄罗斯的利益，但它在叙利亚境内和通过叙利亚投射力量的能力现在被严重削弱，”奥兹切利克说。
“在弄清楚俄罗斯在叙利亚的利益之前，需要时间和与叙利亚新政府的谈判，这是一个尚未确定的实体，”Ozcelik补充说。“但现在这是一个彻底转变的叙利亚，俄罗斯没有好的选择。”
俄罗斯外交部在周日的一份声明中表示，莫斯科正在与反对派进行接触。声明称:“我们正在采取一切必要措施，确保我们在叙利亚公民的安全。”。“俄罗斯在叙利亚的军事基地处于高度戒备状态。目前他们的安全没有受到严重威胁。”
对德黑兰来说，“毫无疑问，阿萨德政权的倒台对伊朗来说是一次重大的失败，”奥兹切利克说。“叙利亚是伊朗系统支持黎巴嫩真主党的渠道，这条供应链现在已经被切断。
伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇说，德黑兰担心“不同教派之间重新爆发内战或教派战争的可能性，或者叙利亚的分裂和叙利亚的崩溃及其转变为恐怖分子的避难所。”
与此同时，叛军解放的领土已经被以色列战机轰炸，被以色列士兵占领。以色列官员表示，他们打算阻止“极端主义”分子获得阿萨德政权的先进军事能力。
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，阿萨德政权的垮台“是我们打击伊朗和真主党的直接结果，伊朗和真主党是阿萨德政权的主要支持者。”
“阿萨德政权的垮台，大马士革的暴政，提供了巨大的机会，但也充满了重大的危险，”他补充说。
阿萨德的遗产
俄罗斯国有媒体称，根据俄罗斯外交部的一份声明，阿萨德在与反对派谈判后辞去总统职务，于周日凌晨逃离该国前往俄罗斯。
克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周一宣布，弗拉基米尔·普京总统将给予他的长期盟友在该国的政治庇护。
阿萨德的离开结束了他24年的统治，以及阿萨德家族50年的统治。阿萨德、他的兄弟和他的父亲哈菲兹·阿萨德的海报和雕像被全国各地兴高采烈的人群拆除。
根据联合国的数据，到2022年底，十多年的内战导致至少30.7万人死亡。这场战斗迫使约1200万叙利亚人(占该国2011年约2200万人口的一半以上)离开家园，截至2022年底，其中约540万人仍生活在国外。
在内战的白热化阶段，阿萨德政权为保住对全国大部分地区的控制权进行了激烈的斗争。但事实证明，他的胜利得不偿失。
11月29日，北部城市阿勒颇落入伊德利卜叛军手中，这一令人震惊的事态发展引发了全国各地新一轮的叛军起义。
在达拉——因其在2011年动乱中的作用而被称为“叙利亚革命的摇篮”——反对派团体重新崛起，并开始向首都进军。
“大马士革已经解放，暴君巴沙尔·阿萨德已经被推翻，政权监狱中受压迫的囚犯已经被释放，”反对派武装占领大马士革国家电视台总部大楼后，一名反对派发言人在那里说。
“我们要求人民和战士保护自由叙利亚的所有财产，”这位发言人补充说。“叙利亚万岁，所有教派的叙利亚人都自由了。”
Syria post-Assad power vacuum poses unexpected problems for Middle East, US
LONDON --The stunning collapse of President Bashar Assad's regime inSyriapresents "a moment of historic opportunity," President Joe Biden wrote on X on Sunday, as rebel fighters and Damascenes celebrated the end of their 14-year war against the authoritarian government.
But, the president added, "It is also a moment of risk and uncertainty."
The uprising that began with a protest march in the southern city of Daraa in 2011 ended with celebratory gunfire in Damascus in 2024.
The surprise rebel offensive that surged out of northwestern Idlib province last month showed the regime in Damascus to be hollow. Its backers in Moscow, Tehran and Beirut were unable or unwilling to respond, perhaps because their attention and resources having been sapped by wars in Ukraine, Lebanon, Gaza and elsewhere.
The story of the fall of Damascus was -- arguably -- written in Donetsk and Dahiya. The coup de grâce, though, was inherently Syrian.
The offensive that toppled Assad was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda. The group is listed as a terrorist organization in the U.S. and European Union.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said over the weekend that the group's background "is a concern," noting that elements of the group are affiliated with organizations "that have American blood on their hands."
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has become the most recognizable face of the Syrian opposition. Speaking at Damascus' 8th-century Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, Jolani said the opposition victory is "historic for the region" and that "Syria is being purified."
It remains unclear whether and how Jolani -- who is increasingly using his real name of Ahmed al-Sharaa, rather than his nom de guerre -- will be able to exert control over the disparate groupings of rebel forces drawn from around the country.
What does the US think?
American officials are concerned that the power vacuum will allow ISIS to reconstitute. The U.S. launched 75 strikes against ISIS targets in central Syria on Sunday in a move that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said was designed "to keep the pressure on ISIS."
"As this unfolds, there's a potential that elements in the area, such as ISIS, could try to take advantage of this opportunity and regain capability," Austin warned.
The future shape of U.S.-Syrian relations will depend on the composition and direction of the next government in Damascus.
The White House may be somewhat pleased by Jolani's speech at the Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, in which he lamented how Syria became "a playground for Iranian ambitions."
"We will remain vigilant," Biden said on Sunday after Damascus fell. "Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses." The president, however, added that the groups are "saying the right things now."
"But as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions," Biden added.
Thomas S. Warrick -- a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the Department of Homeland Security -- said the U.S. "has a huge stake in what comes next," even if it was not directly involved in Assad's ousting.
A more stable Syria "that frees itself from Iranian and Russian dependence" could, Warrick wrote, allow millions of refugees to return home, end its role as a Hezbollah conduit to threaten Israel and perhaps even join the Abraham Accords at some point in the future.
"All these unthinkable things are now possible," Warrick -- now a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative -- wrote. "But this will not happen spontaneously, without outside help and support. Postwar planning for Syria needs to go into high gear."
The incoming Trump administration will need to chart a policy approach to Syria. Some will be skeptical of success, but others -- Warrick wrote -- will note that "weakening Iranian influence, supporting Israel's security, and peace in Lebanon are, collectively, one of the biggest wins that a Trump administration could hope to achieve."
A Syrian power struggle
In a recent interview with CNN, Jolani said that Syrians should not fear HTS's brand of Islamism. "People who fear Islamic governance either have seen incorrect implementations of it or do not understand it properly," he said.
As the rebels reached Damascus, Assadist Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said the outgoing regime would "extend its hand" to the opposition and assist with the transition of power. Jolani said on Sunday that Jalali will remain in his post to supervise state bodies during the transition.
Jolani and his HTS will have competition for influence in the new Syria.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army also took part in the offensive, with fighting still ongoing between the SNA and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces -- who are supported by the U.S. -- in the northeast of the country. Ankara enjoys significant control over the SNA and other groups and can be expected to seek influence over the future direction of its neighbor.
"The opposition is not a homogenous movement and there is a risk that internal fractures within the HTS-led umbrella movement -- which may become more salient in the weeks and months to come -- may lead to discord and threaten Syrian stability," Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K. told ABC News.
"A new transitional Syrian administration will soon need to take on the task of state-building, including the rebuilding of a national Syrian security force and a constitution-building process, as the Syrian state has been painfully hallowed out by the Assad regime," Ozcelik said.
The next government will also need to address the question of Russian presence in Syria. Russian forces retain control of Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval base on Syria's Mediterranean coast, two key strategic facilities from which Moscow helped keep Assad in power.
"It is in Russia's interest to seek to maintain access, but its ability to project power in and through Syria is now severely debilitated," Ozcelik said.
"It will take time and negotiations with the new Syrian administration, a yet to be determined entity, before it is clear what Russia's stakes in Syria will be," Ozcelik added. "But this is now a radically transformed Syria, and Russia has no good options."
Moscow is in touch with the opposition factions, Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a Sunday statement. "All necessary measures are being taken to ensure the safety of our citizens in Syria," it said. "Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is currently no serious threat to their security."
For Tehran, "there is no doubt that the fall of the Assad regime is a highly consequential defeat for Iran," Ozcelik said. "Syria was the conduit for Iran's systematic support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, this supply chain has now
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is concerned about the "possibility of a renewed civil war or a sectarian war between different sects or the division of Syria and the collapse of Syria and its transformation into a haven for terrorists."
Meanwhile, rebel-liberated territory is already being bombed by Israeli warplanes and occupied by Israeli soldiers. Israeli officials have said they intend to deny "extremist" elements access to the Assad regime's advanced military capabilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the regime's collapse "is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime."
"The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers," he added.
Assad's legacy
Assad fled the country for Russia in the early hours of Sunday, state-owned Russian media said, having resigned the presidency following negotiations with opposition factions, per a Russian Foreign Ministry statement.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced Monday that President Vladimir Putin would grant his longtime ally political asylum in the country.
Assad's departure ended 24 years of his rule -- and 50 years of Assad family rule. Posters and statues of Assad, his brothers and his father, Hafez Assad, were being torn down by jubilant crowds around the country.
More than a decade of civil war left at least 307,000 people dead by the end of 2022, per United Nations figures. The fighting forced around 12 million Syrians -- more than half of the country's 2011 population of around 22 million -- from their homes, around 5.4 million of whom were still living abroad as of late 2022.
Assad's regime fought bitterly to retain control of much of the country during the hot phase of the civil war. But his victory proved a pyrrhic one.
The northern city of Aleppo fell to the Idlib rebels on Nov. 29 -- a shocking development that helped spark renewed rebel uprisings all across the country.
In Daraa -- known as the "Cradle of the Syrian Revolution" for its role in the 2011 unrest -- opposition groups rose anew and began their march on the capital.
"Damascus has been liberated and the tyrant Bashar Assad has been overthrown, and oppressed prisoners in regime prisons have been released," a rebel spokesperson said at the state television headquarters in Damascus after opposition forces seized the building.
"We ask people and fighters to protect all property in Free Syria," the spokesperson added. "Long live Syria free for all Syrians of all sects."
